I absolutely hate the Patriots. My hate of the Patriots is
not based on reason. It is based on sports. This does not mean that
I wish terrible things would happen to all of the players on New England's
roster. No, not at all. I just hate them for being so good. I
hate them for beating the Raiders in the 2001 playoffs, when the "Tuck
Rule" became RaiderNation taboo. I hate Tom Brady for jubilantly
explaining after that game how he was indeed throwing the ball, even though he
was clearly tucking the ball. I hate Bill Belichick for being smarter
than the last ten Raider coaches combined. I hate Tom Brady for never
getting hit by defensive lineman, as he stands confidently behind his
formidable offensive line. I hate Wes Welker for accumulating stats that
far exceed his ability. I hate the whole damn organization...
Maybe the real word I am looking for is "envy."
However, I will never admit to envying any part of the abomination that is the
New England Patriots. So, how do I really feel about the Patriots?
I don't really "hate" the Patriots... And I can't admit that I
"envy" them though... so... I will say that I hate the Patriots for
not being the Oakland Raiders. I think that's fair.
Anyways, let's get to the point. Why have the Patriots been
good for so long? How have they, under the same salary cap restrictions
as every other team, dominated the AFC East, and the NFL since 2001? How
have they won 10 of the last 12 AFC East titles? How are they consistently
in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders, year after year? Obviously, the consistent factor is Belichick
and Brady. The great tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady began in
2001. And as much as it pains me to say it, these guys are good, especially
Belichick. Belichick is the greatest coach I have ever seen. How he
manages his team, on and off the field, is incredible. Belichick, during
his Patriots tenure, has reshaped the NFL. He has redefined the crossing
route, and in doing so, reinvented the slot receiver and tight end
position. But how has he done this?
Belichick basically uses his wideouts as decoys to distract the
defense from the greater part of the offense. The top cornerbacks are
forced to guard the fastest, most talented route runners on the field, the
Patriot wideouts, even though these receivers are often sub-par by NFL
standards. Meanwhile, the defense's third cornerback and linebackers are
forced to deal with the problem that an agile Wes Welker proposes. And to
make matters worse, Belichick loves to play with two tight ends. These
tight ends are matchup nightmares for the defense, too big for cornerbacks, but
too fast for linebackers to defend. While all this is happening, all
Brady has to do is sit in the pocket, and make short, easy throws to open
receivers. For this reason, I have never been very impressed with Tom Brady.
Also, the fact that Matt Cassel went 11-5 with the Patriots after Brady tore his ACL at the beginning of the
2008 season, and then went to the Chiefs, only to fail miserably, creates
another strong case for how easy it is to play quarterback for the Patriots in
Belichick's ingenious system. However, in Tom Brady's defense, I have
always admired him as one of the best decision-makers in the NFL. Additionally,
he has above-average accuracy and probably the best pocket presence in the
league. So, I'm not saying that Brady is a bad quarterback; all I'm
saying is that he is a great quarterback, who is excelling in a system where it
is easy for quarterbacks to succeed.
Now, the Belichick system is only one component of the Patriots'
dynasty-producing machine. The second part is what I appreciate the most:
salary cap management. Belichick knows that his offense is great,
somewhat independent of the players on his roster. So, how does he take
advantage of this? The answer is "player turnover."
Generally, the only position that you don't want to change very often is your
quarterback because your quarterback needs to be comfortable in a system in
order to succeed. However, skill positions, such as wide receivers and
running backs, can be easily replaced. Outside of the ability of the top
few running backs in the league (I may as well only be talking about Adrian
Peterson), the running success of any team is generally based on the offensive
line and offensive scheme. There is a reason that teams rarely suffer
when their #1 running back gets hurt. The next guy up, a team's #2
running back, is generally almost as good. Additionally, the difference
in ability of your #1 and #2 running back is not nearly big enough to offset
the real driving force of rushing success: the ability of your offensive line
and the success of your running scheme. Belichick recognizes this.
So, he constantly cycles running backs in and out of New England, knowing that
it will not significantly impact his running game. What is the advantage
of this? Well, after playing in the Belichick system for a couple years,
a running back will accumulate impressive stats. As these stats grow,
these players will ask for more money. When this happens, Belichick knows
that he can find a replacement for his new "star" running back, at an
incredibly reduced cost. So, Belichick either goes to the draft, or he
finds free agents who were struggling on other teams to fill the void.
Belichick also combats the problem of "big stats" by consistently
using a multi-running back system. Ultimately, this saves cap room in
other areas (such as on the offensive line), while maintaining a healthy
running game.
Similarly, receivers, particularly wide outs, suffer the same fate
as running backs in Belichick's system. Belichick views them as
dispensable. This year, Belichick is starting two rookie wide outs.
Unfortunately, his veteran receivers (who have experience and chemistry with
Tom Brady), Amendola, Gronkowski, and Hernandez are all out. Normally, a
couple new faces at receiver would not hinder the Patriots' offense; however,
Brady is currently working with almost an entirely new staff of starting
receivers. This has clearly affected the Patriots' offense. Brady
will soon have Amendola and Gronk back though, and thanks to a very easy
schedule to start the season, the Patriots have escaped the first quarter of
the season at 4-0. As this season
progresses, and Amendola returns from injury, we will see if Belichick made the
right move by bringing in Amendola to replace Welker. Amendola has played
well so far, but I will need to see more games from him before I can make a
decision on how he fits in the Patriots’ offense. If Amendola is as good
as I thought he would be in the Patriots' offense, then the decision to cut
Welker will ultimately have been a good one. Welker took up $9 million in
cap space last season for the Patriots1. This season, Amendola
is taking about a third of that, with a cap hit of $3.5 million1.
Similar value at a cheaper cost. That is what makes "player
turnover" so successful.
Think about this. Not a single Patriot running back will
exceed a one million dollar cap hit for the Patriots this season1.
By holding onto less big name running backs, like Stevan Ridley, and by picking
up underachievers, like Leon Washington and LeGarrette Blount, the Patriots
will have a solid rushing attack, with a minimal cap hit. Meanwhile, teams like the Titans, Jaguars,
and Raiders will again have to bear the burden of having a running back that
had one great year, which made them overvalued. Chris Johnson, Maurice
Jones-Drew, and Darren McFadden have cap hits of $12 million, $6.8 million, and
$9.7 million, respectively for the 2013-14 season1. Now,
think. When was the last time any of
these players performed well? It has been more than 2 years in all three
cases. McFadden and MJD have been plagued by injury, while playing on
very weak teams. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson has been very unimpressive
since he ran for over 2,000 yards in 2009, unable to come within 600 yards of
that number since2. Players like these eat away at cap space
because they are big names who are perceived to have high value.
Unfortunately, players like these inhibit a team’s ability to sign other
talented players at other essential positions.
One final idea to keep in mind is that while veteran players are
important, a large group of young, talented players are what keep a roster
strong and a team's salary low. Experience is important, but no
organization can afford a team of veterans. Young players are cheap, and
when salary space is the greatest limiting factor to a team's success, cheap,
underrated players is what you have to look for.
1. The Guardian. NFL
2013-2014 season salaries by team and position - interactive. September
4, 2013. <http://www.theguardian.com/sport/interactive/2013/nfl-salaries-positions-2013-2014>
2. NFL. NFL
Stats. September 31, 2013. <http://www.nfl.com/players/search?category=name>
