Conference Championship Weekend Recap 2015

Well, that was ridiculous.  I mean.  Well.  Really.  Ok.  Ugh.  Here are the stats you don't care about: I went 1/2 with my predictions and 1-1 ATS.  Total: 6/10, 2-8 ATS.  Without saying anything else, I'll just get to the recaps.

Seattle Seahawks defeat Green Bay Packers, 28-22 (OT)

As a whole, this game was awful.  Rodgers and Wilson are the two best quarterbacks at protecting the ball in the NFL, and between the two of them, they threw six interceptions.  The entire game was riddled with mistakes and lucky plays that really ruined what could have been a very entertaining Conference Championship game.  And to top it all off, Green Bay totally imploded like nothing I had ever seen before, other than when the Giants, up 31-10 with 8:00 left in the game, collapsed against the Eagles, back in 2012.

Seattle played their worst game in two years and still escaped with a victory.  The list of luck and screw ups is long and embarassing for the Packers.  McCarthy blew it.  Bostick blew it.  Clinton-Dix blew it.  Burnett blew it.  And McCarthy blew it again.  And then again.  One of the few things that Russell Wilson is very good at it is protecting the ball.  He threw four picks.  When Russell Wilson throws four picks, the Seahawks should never win.  Let's look at all the ridiculous things that happened in this game, starting from the beginning.

1) McCarthy chose to kick two field goals from the Seattle one yard line in the first quarter.  Anyone that knows anything about football knows that you go for it on 4th down at the one yard line.  4th and 1 situations are well above 50%.  The potential points are more than doubled when you go for it (7 vs. 3).  Sounds like a no-brainer, right?  That should be enough to convince anyone to go for it in these situations.  However, the old coaching mantra is that you never want to "leave points on the board."  However, old coaching mantras are generally lousy and unfounded.  Additionally, even if you don't convert, you leave the opposing offense in a tough situation, pinned deep in their own territory.  GO FOR IT.  Besides two dumb decisions not to go for it on the one yard line, Green Bay failed to take advantage of many Seattle mistakes in the first half.  This game should have been over at halftime.

2) After Wilson threw his fourth interception with 5:13 left in the game, Burnett went straight to the ground, instead of returning the ball.  Burnett easily had 20 yards of space to return the ball (and probably more), but decided to play it safe and just slide to the ground.  In Burnett's defense, the game really should have been over here, with the Packers up 19-7.  But still, with 5:13 left to play in the 4th quarter, it was a little too early in the game to just fall to the ground, instead of making a bigger play.

3) Green Bay used another classic "old-school" coaching tactic, dropping to the prevent defense while they were ahead.  This is generally a dumb thing to do, especially when the only points your team has given up all day were on a fake field goal.  Teams should stick with the defense that has been successful.  Again, this should be a no-brainer.  Too many coaches in the NFL make this mistake.  It is maddening.  Kudos to Bruce Arians (Head Coach of the Cardinals) for sticking with the blitz at any time during a game.  He is one of the few intelligent head coaches in the NFL.

4) The onside kick was an incredible mistake by Brandon Bostick.  I imagine Bostick has not been able to get much sleep since the title game.  You have to feel a little bad for him.  It is not fair to place this much blame on one player, but this was a significant mistake in the game.  Not only did he drop the ball, but he was not even supposed to go for the recovery in that situation.  The onside kick return was designed for Jordy Nelson to catch the ball, and you can clearly see why.  They happen to trust Nelson's hands slightly more than the hands of Brandon Bostick.  No surprise.

5) The two point conversion epitomized the madness of the end of this game.  If you watched the play, you were in disbelief that Seattle converted.  Wilson heaved up a prayer in a totally busted play.  Luke Willson was able to answer that prayer after Haha Clinton-Dix made an unbelievably poor play on the ball, which is unfortunate because Clinton-Dix had had an incredible game up until that point.

After all this madness was done, Green Bay saved themselves by grabbing the game-tying field goal, just before time expired.  However, it was not enough, as Seattle won the overtime coin-toss, converted a 3rd and long, made the big touchdown play, and advanced to the Super Bowl.  Was God on the Seahawks' side for this game, like Wilson and other Seahawks players claimed?  Of course not.  I mean, I'm not sure God watches football.  And if he did, don't you think he would have had a bet on Seattle against the spread, not straight up?  Seattle didn't even cover the spread.  However, Russell Wilson was fairly convinced that God was on his side, saying that the divine being caused him to throw the four interceptions1 (Ley).  If we use Wilson's logic, God must really hate Brandon Bostick (and most Packer fans).  What God did to Green Bay, and especially Bostick, was just mean.

New England Patriots defeat Indianapolis Colts, 45-7

This game was awful for totally opposite reasons than the first game.  At least the NFC Championship Game was exciting.  Honestly, I didn't watch most of this game, and what would have been the point?  The Colts were barely hanging on during the first half, and then got obliterated in the second half.  The Colts showed their true colors this game, not quite ready to be an elite team.  They will continue to be a playoff team for some time, as they play in the lowly AFC South.  However, Indianapolis is still a little ways away from being a top team.  This game reminds you of a very similar beat down that the Colts received at the hands of the Cowboys (42-7), back in Week 16.  The Colts were able to defeat a Broncos team that was not nearly 100% in the Divisional Playoff Round; however, they were not ready for a Patriots team that has been playing their best football since 2007.

The only other talking point from this game was the deflated balls.  However, this is not really a talking point.  Teams do things like this all the time, trying to push the limits of the NFL rules.  Obviously it did not make a difference in this game.  However, it is strange that it seems like New England is the team that is constantly getting caught up in this nonsense.  Anyways, there isn't much else to say about this game.  This was a demolition.

So, there you have it.  The two evils of the football world meet in the Super Bowl.  I don't even know who to root for.  New England has really been the NFL's "resident evil team" for many years now.  However, there are plenty of reasons to hate the Seahawks as well.  The obnoxious players is an easy reason to go with.  You could even go ahead and hate Russell Wilson if you want.  He might seem perfect, but that guy is too good to be true, like a Tim Tebow that's actually worth a damn in the NFL.  Anyways, I will be spending the final week and a half of the NFL season deciding which team I want to lose more in the Super Bowl, NOT WATCHING THE PRO BOWL, and working on my Super Bowl XLIX Predictions (including prop bets!)  Stay tuned.

1Ley, Tom.  Russell Wilson: I Blame Those Four Interceptions On God.  Deadspin.  

            <http://deadspin.com/russell-wilson-i-blame-those-four-interceptions-on-god-1680641071>

Conference Championship Weekend 2015: My Predictions

While 28 teams have started their off-season, four are still playing for it all.  Two of the four teams remaining made it this far last year, and they will both be hosting their respective conference championship game.  Four great teams remain.  This Sunday, we will trim the field down to two.  Let's get right to my predictions.

Green Bay Packers (12-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Sunday, 3:05 PM ET (Current Line, Seahawks -7.5)

The big question mark for this game is whether or not Rodgers will be at 100%.  Fans in Seattle say that their defense is good enough to beat Rodgers at any level of health.  Fans in Green Bay know the quality that their franchise quarterback brings to the table.  However, no matter what anyone thinks, Rodgers will have to be mobile if the Packers have a chance at winning this game.  Rodgers can make all the throws, but he is going to have to be spot on to beat this vaunted Seahawks secondary.  Meanwhile, as long as Seattle sticks to their mistake-free football, they should be able to win this game.  The Seahawks offense won't wow you, but Wilson won't throw picks and Lynch won't fumble the ball away.  When you have the best defense in the league, just holding onto the football on offense is usually enough.  Add in a couple of great plays by Russel Wilson, and you have a team that can simply ruin the morale of the opposing team.  I expect this game to be very competitve all the way to the end.  In Week 1, we thought we may be watching the NFC Conference Title Game preview, and we were.  All we can hope is that this game is more competitive than their previous matchup, when Seattle dominated Green Bay, 36-16.

Prediction: The Packers get off to a great start, leading 10-0 after the first quarter.  However, it is short-lived and a Seahawks comeback keeps this game interesting.  Down by one point, Wilson leads the Seahawks down the field, on the potential game-winning drive.  Wilson spikes the ball with 4 seconds remaining, setting up Hauschka for the game-winner from 51 yards out.  Hauschka hooks it wide left, Packers win 25-24.  

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

Sunday, 6:40 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -7.0)

Once again, Brady and the Patriots will be defending their home turf in the AFC Title game.  New England has been good for a long time now, but they haven't been able to come home with Super Bowl Championship since 2005.  Brady is coming towards the end of his career, and if Peyton Manning's lackluster season is any indication, Brady may be running out of opportunities to win it all.  Meanwhile, Luck is one of a few emerging young stars at quarterback, and he is looking to get his hands on the Lombardi Trophy very early in his career.  You never know when the Super Bowl opportunities will dry up, so you have to take advantage of them while you can.  After Brady won three Super Bowls during his first five seasons with the Patriots (which includes a rookie season where he threw only three passes), I'm sure few predicted that Brady would still be stuck on three at this point in his career.  Similarly, Peyton Manning is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, and he only has one Super Bowl to his name.  Basically, the lesson to Luck would be, play like this is your only chance;  Super Bowls are hard to come by.  However, before Luck and the Colts can even think about Glendale, they'll have travel to cold New England.  This game certainly won't be easy for either team.

Prediction: This game ends up being a shockingly defensive affair, as both defenses step up against two All-Pro quarterbacks.  As the game wears on, it is clear that this game will come down to the last drive.  Down by 4, Brady hits Gronk on a 12-yard touchdown pass, with 1:38 left in the game.  Luck gets his opportunity to be the hero, but the Colts turn the ball over on downs on their final drive.  Patriots win, 20-17.  

Super Bowl XLIX is right around the corner.  I'm mainly just hoping for three more exciting games.  However, I will also admit that I am pulling for the Packers and Colts.  I'm not really interested in seeing Brady win another, and I have this unreasonable bias against teams trying to repeat as champions, unless it's the Raiders.  The Raiders could go ahead and win 20 Super Bowls in a row for all I care.  I wonder how many Raider back-to-back championships it would take to ruin the NFL.  I can imagine that the NFL product would be pretty lousy if the same team that everyone hated (other than the fans in Oakland) kept winning the Super Bowl.  I'd give it six years.  Enjoy the games this weekend.  Go Raiders.

Divisional Playoff Round Recap 2015

The divisional playoff round was great, AND I was able to get one pick right against the spread (ATS)!  I predicted 3/4 winners correctly and went 1-3 ATS, which brings me to 5/8 for my predictions and 1-7 ATS overall.  Wow, that's not so good, but better than last week!  So what happened in all of those thrilling matchups over the weekend?  Here is your recap.

New England Patriots defeat Baltimore Ravens, 35-31

What a great start to the weekend.  It looked like the Ravens were on the path to upsetting the Patriots again.  However, Brady and Belichick worked their playoff magic (along with a little help from former Kent State quarterback, Julian Edelman), and will be playing in their 9th AFC Championship game together.  The Ravens match up well against the Patriots, so new England must feel great about getting past Baltimore.  However, another difficult game is waiting for them, as the Colts will head into Foxborough, looking to a renew a rivalry, which started as Manning vs. Brady.  However, I think Brady would rather be playing Manning than Luck at this point in his career.

Seattle Seahawks defeat Carolina Panthers, 31-17

The Seahawks had the clear-cut easiest matchup of the Divisional Round, so I think it's a little too early to be planning the Repeat Super Bowl Victory Parade in Seattle.  The Seahawks will get a real playoff test in the NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers.  However, maybe the Seahawks are happy about this, as Dallas was the only team able to defeat Seattle at Century Link Field this season.  Meanwhile, the Panthers' magical run to the Divisional Round of the post-season is over.  However, Carolina can be proud, as they played Seattle tough.  The game was closer than the final score would indicate.  The Panthers' defense kept them in the game, until Cam Newton threw a critical pick-6, sealing the Seahawks trip to the NFC Championship game.  I thought this game would be the one to finally break my winless record ATS, but a couple of big plays for Seattle towards the end of the game ruined my expert prediction.  I was off to an excellent 0-6 start ATS.  Truly incredible.  I should probably go back to my old ways, which led to my success in the 2014 playoffs.  Usually I just make picks based on a coin flip.  Unfortunately, I lost my coin before the playoffs started.  I just gotta find where I put that damn coin... It was much smarter than me.

Green Bay Packers defeat Dallas Cowboys, 26-21

The Packers squeaked by the Cowboys in a thrilling contest, that saw two top teams battle it out until late in the fourth quarter.  I may as well only talk about the Dez Bryant non-catch because the rest of the game may as well not have happened, considering the fact that this play was the only thing that media outlets were covering in the post-game.  Obviously, by the rule book, it was not a catch.  The rule is in place to eliminate some gray area about when the receiver truly completes the catch.  Unfortunately, like most rules added to the NFL rule book, it mostly just complicates things further. In defense of the rule, Dez lost control as he came to the ground.  In defense of Dez, he took two steps after making the catch and came down on his elbow before the ball contacted the ground.  The rule seems awful through the lens of this one play.  However, let me pose a hypothetical.  For the sake of argument, let's say Dez was not contacted by a defender while going to the ground and it was not fourth down on the play in question.  If Dez totally lost control of the ball when he hit the ground and fumbled the ball to the Packers, wouldn't it have looked more like an incomplete pass?  Wouldn't calling that play a catch and fumble have been ridiculous?  That is why the rule is there.  However, the rule fails in this case, in the sense that, the moment Dez's elbow hits the ground, he could be considered down by contact.  It takes away a great catch on a technicality.  It's a tough call, but the rules of the NFL aren't perfect.  The Cowboys had more chances than just that one play to win the game.  You can't blame the entire game on one play, even though it had incredible significance at that moment.  Ultimately, the important thing to note is that this is the only game that I have predicted accurately ATS in the playoffs so far.  Amen.

Indianapolis Colts defeat Denver Broncos, 24-13

Was this the end of Peyton?  Peyton and the Broncos collapsed at the end of the season.  When news came out that Manning had been playing with a torn quad, things seemed to make more sense.  However, the truth of the matter is that Peyton is getting older, and if his body cannot hold up over a 16 game regular season and a potential 3 game post-season, his time in the NFL might be up.  The Colts defense really stepped up in this game, but the story will be Manning's weak throws, wobbly deep balls, and just poor overall performance.  Luck came through for his team, but he really only needed to play adequately, in order to grab one of the biggest victories of his young career.  The Colts now head to hostile New England, where Luck and the Indianapolis defense will have to step their game up if they want to grab themselves a ticket to Glendale.

For the second straight season, four of the best teams have made it to the Conference Champion Round of the playoffs.  Earlier, I would have argued that the Broncos deserved the spot currently occupied by the Colts; however, due to their poor end of season form, I believe the Colts are the rightful owner of this spot in the AFC Conference Championship Game.  We have two great games ahead of us.  The matchup for Super Bowl XLIX will be decided this Sunday.  My predictions will be coming in later this week.  Get excited!

Divisional Playoff Round 2015: My Predictions

We have narrowed it down to eight.  Eight teams that believe they have a chance to win it all.  Eight teams remaining, representing all eight divisions of the NFL.  All but one of eight divisional champions have made it this far (the role of AFC North Champion will be played by understudy, the Baltimore Ravens).  Eight teams.  One divisional round.  We are in the thick of the playoffs now.  All four games have clear cut favorites, but that doesn't necessarily mean that those are the four teams we will see in the Conference Title games.  Let's look at the matchups.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -7.0)

New England is the clear favorite in this matchup; however, I don't expect things to be so straightforward for the AFC's number one seed.  Joe Flacco seems to turn it up to the next level in the playoffs.  He will need to be at the top of his form if Baltimore hopes to leave New England with a playoff victory.  Unfortunately for the Ravens, Tom Brady has been turning it up in the playoffs for well over a decade now.  The Patriots have been an impressive team for a long time now, but this season feels different.  This is the best New England has looked in awhile now.  Since the Patriots were inexplicably crushed by Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 4, they have looked nearly unstoppable, with their only loss (other than a meaningless Week 17 game) coming in a close game in Green Bay.  During that run, they have blown out the Colts, Broncos, Bengals, and Lions.  That's an impressive list of teams.  However, Baltimore will also be feeling confident, as they defeated Pittsburgh convincingly in the Wild Card Round just last weekend.  They Ravens will need all the confidence they can get, as they look to upset the Patriots in the playoffs for the second time in the last three seasons.  

Prediction: Flacco throws his first interceptions of the post-season in three years on the first drive of the game.  New England stays in control for most of the game, and a late comeback attempt by the Ravens is squashed when Flacco throws his third pick.  Patriots win 29-17.  

Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Seahawks -10.5)

The Seahawks are heavy favorites against an overachieving Panthers team.  Carolina comes into this game having won 5 straight, having needed all five of those wins to get to where they are in the playoffs right now.  However, Carolina's list of victories are really not all that impressive.  Three of those wins came against the other three teams of the lowly NFC South, and one of them came against Cleveland.  They were able to defeat the Cardinals in the Wild Card Round; however, with Ryan Lindley at quarterback, I don't know if there is a team in the NFL that the Cardinals could have beaten last weekend.  Meanwhile, Seattle comes into this game having won six straight and nine of their last ten.  During that time, they have re-established themselves as one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It seems like a long time ago that fans in Seattle were worried about their team's 3-3 start to the season.  The Panthers strong defense will certainly keep them in this game.  And if they play mistake free football, they may even have a chance to win it.  However, I, and everyone else, expect Cam Newton to have a very tough time dealing with the noise and the Legion of Boom at Century Link Field.

Prediction: Newton throws three interceptions in the first half.  Seattle in unable to take full advantage of these turnovers, though.  Carolina trails by six, late in the fourth quarter, with Cam Newton and the Panthers driving.  However, a fourth and final interception dooms the Panthers.  Seattle wins 16-10.  

Dallas Cowboys (12-4) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Packers -6.0)

There are lots of big story lines in this game.  The Packers were 8-0 at home and the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road this year.  Which perfect record will break in this NFC clash?  Rodgers will be playing with a slight tear in his calf.  Will he be able to overcome this injury?  And the weather is once again expected to be a factor in cold Green Bay.  Which team will be able to defy the elements?  It is fun to mull over these interesting story lines.  I find Dallas' 8-0 road record particularly interesting.  However, in the end, this game will be about which team performs on this day.  Both teams have proven that they can win and win big.  Dallas boasts impressive wins against Seattle and Indianapolis, while the Packers have proven their worth, with wins against New England and Detroit.  The Packers are the clear favorites, and that should come as no surprise.  However, it will be interesting to see how the cold affects these high-powered offenses.  Rodgers has the edge in the cold, thanks to starting at quarterback in Green Bay for about seven years now, but the injury may hinder his ability to perform.  I expect Dallas to start fast in this one, after their slow start in Detroit last week.  If Dallas expects to defeat Green Bay, their defense will have to step up.  Simply outscoring Green Bay may be too tall an order for Tony Romo and the Dallas offense.  The Packers are hoping to win so they can get their revenge in Seattle next weekend (or maybe they are hoping Carolina pulls off the upset).  Either way, they have to get through the Cowboys first.

Prediction: The cold weather does not affect either teams potent offenses.  The Packers and Cowboys trade touchdowns all game.  Romo hits Cole Beasley in the slot for a game-tying touchdown with 1:45 left in the fourth.  However, that's way too much time for Rodgers, as the Packers drive down the field and set up Crosby for the game-winner with no time remaining.  Packers win 38-35.  

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Broncos -7.0)

The weekend will be capped off by the game I am looking forward to most.  For the first time, Peyton will face off against his old team in the playoffs.  This classic battle will be a rematch from Week 1, where the Broncos defeated Luck and the Colts in Denver, 31-24.  However, Week 1 of the regular season is a whole lot different than the post-season.  Since that time, Denver has converted to a run-first team.  Peyton has now taken on the role of game manager in the Denver offense, as his running game has begun to flourish.  The Colts defense will have to stop CJ Anderson before they can think about slowing down Peyton Manning.  The Indianapolis defense looked good against the Bengals last weekend, but comparing Cincinnati's offense and Denver's offense is silly.  Meanwhile, the Denver defense will have their hands full with the top passing offense in the NFL.  The Colts have looked great in many games this season, but their inability to beat the top teams will have fans in Indianapolis worried.  The Colts were blown out by Dallas and New England this year, to go along with the previously mentioned loss to Denver.  The Colts will look to avenge that regular season loss to the Broncos.  This will be the first of Luck's many chances to make a statement in the playoffs.  Will he be able to come through?  Meanwhile, this will be one of Peyton's last chances to make a playoff statement.  The pressure is on Manning to win now.

Prediction: The Colts have the ball, trailing by four late in the fourth quarter.  Luck is in the midst of a career-defining drive, when Austin Collie fumbles the ball.  Aqib Talib returns it for the game-sealing touchdown.  Broncos win 31-20.  

I know it's not all that bold, but I expect all of the top seeds to advance to the Conference Championship Round.  All of the top teams have been in excellent form lately, and it is hard to imagine any of them faltering in their first game of the post-season.  Hopefully this weekend of games is an improvement from the Wild Card Round.  Happy football watching!

Wild Card Weekend Recap 2015

Well, that was an unfortunately lackluster weekend of games.  My predictions were particularly poor as well.  I went 2/4 on my predictions with an impressive record of 0-4 against the spread (ATS).  However, it is important to note that it is just as difficult to go 0-4 as it is to go 4-0 ATS.  In order to validate my great predictive abilities, I plan on going 4-0 next weekend, in order to prove my brilliant 0-4 record was no fluke.  Or maybe I'll go 0-4 again.  I haven't decided yet.  Before we get to next weekend's predictions, let's first take a look at the games from Wild Card Weekend.

Carolina Panthers defeat Arizona Cardinals, 27-16

We started off the weekend with the worst game of them all.  After watching this game, there is no question in my mind that the Cardinals and the Panthers are the two worst teams that made the playoffs.  The Cardinals were lucky to score a point in a game where the Panthers kept gifting them with chances.  I can't imagine Ryan Lindley will be much longer for the NFL.  I'd take Jamarcus Russel over Ryan Lindley at this point.  Arizona's offensive performance was the worst in NFL playoff history, based on total yards.  They would not have gotten that record had they not run a desperation lateral play with no time left on the clock, which lost them 20 yards.  This would have been sensible during a close game, but Carolina had already won, leading by 11 at the time.  Who told the players to do that?  Did Bruce Arians have a bet on Arizona against the spread?  Anyways, the play was a perfect representation of how horribly poor the Cardinals played on Saturday.  It was an embarrassment.  It is hard to imagine that the Cardinals could find no better option than Ryan Lindley to quarterback their team.  What is even more shocking is that that there was a quarterback behind Ryan Lindley on the depth chart.  As in, Lindley was their best option.  Logan Thomas should be more embarrassed than Ryan Lindley after that performance.  Anyways, I'll give a little credit to the Panthers.  Cam Newton didn't totally blow it, which will keep ESPN analysts obsessing over the fact that Newton has matured or something.  Even though, had Newton taken a knee on every offensive snap, the Panthers probably would have still won this game.  Yes, the Panthers were totally dominant the entire game.  No, they will not be making a run in the playoffs.  Carolina now gets Seattle in the Divisional Round.  Good luck with that.  Arizona heads home after an incredibly disappointing end to their season, one that had so much promise up until the injury to Carson Palmer.  Maybe Carson Palmer deserves the MVP?

Baltimore Ravens defeat Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-17

As I said in my previous post, rivalry games are always hard to predict, so I don't feel too bad about totally botching this prediction.  None of my friends are Ravens fans, so I don't expect anyone to be giving me too much slack for this one.  Anyways, I guess I underrated the value of Le'Veon Bell because his absence showed in this one, as Steelers running backs combined for a total of 43 rushing yards in this game.   It's too bad that the Steelers were unable to overcome the injury to Bell because this game was not as exciting as it could have been.  After suffering through the first Saturday game, I was at least hoping that this AFC North showdown would be better.  The Ravens and Steelers usually bring out the best in each other.  Unfortunately, only Baltimore came to play in this game.  The Steelers were able to cut the Ravens lead to five in the fourth quarter, however, it just never felt like Pittsburgh had a chance.  The Steelers were just barely hanging on for most of the game, and in the end, the Ravens came out on top as the superior team.  Roethlisberger was hit hard and often, and it never seemed like he could get into a rhythm.  Meanwhile Flacco was well protected by his line, and his receivers made some big plays for their quarterback.  Even though Baltimore is only the 6th seed in the AFC, I don't think anyone will be looking forward to a visit from the Ravens this post-season.  If my memory serves me right, they had a pretty good playoff run a couple of years ago.  They will be trying to mimic that in 2015.  

Indianapolis Colts defeat Cincinnati Bengals, 26-10

The woes of the Cincinnati Bengals continue.  The Bengals have still not won a playoff game since 1990.  That's a streak that will even make a Raider fan cringe.  The Colts allowed the Bengals to stick around for the entire first half, as the Cincinnati running game and defense were both making plays early in the game.  It seemed as though Dalton would not have to make the big plays, in order for Cincinnati to win this won.  Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Colts turned it on in the second half.  The defense went on lock-down mode.  Andrew Luck went on Luck mode, and the Colts dominated the Bengals in the second half.  Dalton fell to 0-4 in the playoffs.  It is tough to blame Dalton for this one.  His far and away best target was sidelined due to injury.  His running game went anemic after the first quarter.  And he was opposed by one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  Still, Dalton failed to make any plays for his team.  I thought Cincinnati might have been able to give Indianapolis more of a challenge, especially after their impressive win against Denver in Week 16.  However, they just didn't show up.  Similarly, I didn't expect such an impressive performance from Indianapolis, especially since they got destroyed by Dallas in Week 16.  Anyways, the trend is clear.  How these teams played in Week 16 is nothing like how they played in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.  The Colts were simply the far superior team.  

Dallas Cowboys defeat Detroit Lions, 24-20

Finally, my patience had paid off.  The only exciting game of the weekend was the one that I predicted would be the least exciting of all.  Of course.  The Dallas Cowboys made the fans in Arlington believe that this team is for real on Sunday.  Unfortunately, it was at the expense of the miserbale Detroit Lions, who, similar to the Bengals, have not won a playoff game since 1991.  Fans of Detroit will feel that they had this game stolen from them, and they have a decent argument.  The play in question is obviously the flag that was picked up for a pass interference on Brandon Pettigrew by Anthony Hitchens.  I have a few thoughts on this.  First of all, I hate this type of PI call.  This is just a flag that bails out a quarterback for a bad throw.  The only reason Pettigrew contacted Hitchens at all was because the ball was woefully underthrown.  Additionally, the contact was minimal, even though Hitchens was "face-guarding."  However, based on how this type of play is usually called nowadays, this is always pass interference in the NFL.  So, whether or not I generally agree with this type of penalty is moot.  Also, you could make an argument that there was holding on Hitchens before the pass was thrown as well.  However, in defense of the officials, one play does not define a game.  The Lions had other opportunities to end this game, but they failed to do so and let the Cowboys stick around.  And, in the end, Romo came through for Dallas, earning the Cowboys a trip to Green Bay.  

Well, that's it for Wild Card Weekend.  The best of the NFL will suit up for the Divisional Round, as the Broncos, Patriots, Packers, and Seahawks prepare for their home games.  Predictions for the Divisional Round will be coming later this week.  Stay tuned!

Wild Card Weekend 2015: My Playoff Predictions

The playoffs are finally here, and much to the chagrin of most NFL fans, this may be the final year of the 12 team playoff format.  Next year will most likely begin the era of the 14 team playoff format.  I would prefer the playoffs to remain at 12 teams; however, I am beginning to accept 14 teams as an inevitability.  Two more teams equals more money.  Two more teams equals fewer fired coaches.  It's a no-brainer for the league, even if a large majority of the fans of the NFL are against it.  Let's face it, we're all still going to watch the NFL playoffs, even if there are 14 teams instead of 12.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the exciting matchups that the 2015 Wild Card Round has brought us.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Saturday, 4:20 PM ET (Current Line, Panthers -6.0)

The first matchup of the post-season is definitely one of the more intriguing ones.  Arizona looked like they would be the top seed in the NFC this season, until a critical injury to Carson Palmer.  When Drew Stanton subsequently went down, all hope seemed lost for Arizona.  Now, with Ryan Lindley starting for the Cardinals, the Panthers are almost a one touchdown favorite in this wild card matchup.  I think that the Cardinals defense will keep them in the game, but the total lack of offensive production should doom them.  Since Palmer's injury, Arizona has scored 87 points over seven weeks (12.4 points/game).  That's awful.  Meanwhile, Carolina comes in riding a four game winning streak.  These teams are going in totally opposite directions, and Carolina has homefield advantage.  It is hard to imagine the Panthers losing this game.   

Prediction: The Cardinals get four field goals from Cantazaro, but it is not enough.  Cam Newton Superman dives into the end zone with 2:30 left in the 4th quarter to seal the win, 17-12.  

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Steelers -3.0)

I don't think there is anyone that is disappointed that we will get to see Pittsburgh and Baltimore play each other one final time this season.  The Ravens and Steelers split the season series, so it is fitting that the fates of these two teams should come down to the playoffs.  When Baltimore and Pittsburgh get together, the hits are hard and the football is good.  Rivalry games like this are always hard to predict.  You have to like the Steelers at Heinz Field, but the injury to Le'veon Bell has the fans in Pittsburgh concerned.  Will homefield advantage be enough to propel them past the Ravens?  

Prediction: The game is back and forth up until late in the fourth quarter.  With a one point lead, the Steelers are trying to run out the clock, when Dri Archer breaks free for a 65 yard touchdown run to seal it for Pittsburgh, 28-20.  

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Colts -3.5)

This is another tough game to predict.  Andy Dalton has been horrid in the post-season, but the Colts have been far from impressive recently, including a 42-7 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys.  The most obvious game to look back on, if you are looking for any insight into this game, would be Indianapolis's 27-0 victory over Cincinnati in Week 7.  However, if I've learned anything from the NFL, it's that the regular season means nothing when the post-season rolls around.  The Bengals are trying to usher in a new era of football in Cincinnati, looking for their first playoff win in my lifetime.  Will Dalton finally be able to pull it together during the playoffs?  It might be tough if AJ Green is not able to play.  

Prediction: With the game tied in the 4th quarter, Andy Dalton leads the Bengals down the field, only to see Mike Nugent miss the game-winning field goal as time expires.  They head to overtime, and after an Andrew Luck interception, Mike Nugent redeems himself with a 39 yard field goal.  Bengals win 24-21.  

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -6.5)

Is this finally the Cowboys' year?  Dallas is playing some of their best football in years, and they look poised to make a run in the playoffs.  However, if they want to have any success in the post-season, they will first have to get through the Detroit Lions.  The Lions have looked good for most of the season, but the offense has the potential to totally shut down at a moment's notice.  Fortunately for Stafford, Dallas is no defensive stalwart.  Will Detroit's defense be able to step up against Dallas's potent offense?  Will the Lion's passing attack be revitalized in the playoffs?

Prediction: Matthew Stafford's first pass of the game is intercepted and returned for a touchdown by Brandon Carr.  The game is never close after that, as Tony Romo throws for 3 TDs and leads the Cowboys to victory, 34-21.  

The Wild Card round should produce an exciting quartet of games,  Hopefully they can set the tone for the rest of the 2015 playoffs.  Enjoy Wild Card Weekend!

Where I was Right and Where I was Wrong: A Look Back on the 2014 NFL Regular Season

Once again, I will start my Regular Season recap with a quote from my Dad: "The screen play is my favorite play."  It is not necessarily relevant to the post, but he makes a great point.  The screen play is a very effective play.  Anyways, after 17 weeks of screen plays, the regular season has come to a close, and only 12 teams are left in the battle for the Lombardi Trophy.  

I always love looking back at my predictions from the beginning of the season.  I enjoy my "Wow, nice prediction" moments, just as much as my "What was I thinking" moments.  However, I hate my "Why did I let Connor convince me that the Bucs were not the worst team in the league" moments. Excerpt from a profound GChat conversation: 

Adam: I mean.  I think the Bucs might be the worst team in the league.

Connor: Oh.  I don't.

Adam: What is good about them?  What makes them better than 4-12 this year?

Connor: Doug Martin.  With health.

Adam: What about Josh McCown?  He is a clown.  It rhymes.  Must be true.  

Josh McCown was indeed a clown this year.  I could not have been more accurate.  However, for every one of those moments, I find myself looking at my predictions for teams like the Titans, thinking, why did I have any belief that Jake "The Glass Body" Locker could lead Tennessee to the playoffs?  Why did I even think he could start all 16 games of an NFL season?  However, the unpredictability of the season is what is great about the NFL.  One week, Bill Belichick is asked by a (dumb) reporter if Jimmy Garoppolo is being considered for the starting quarterback position in New England, but, by season's end, the Patriots are the top team in the AFC.  Meanwhile, the Rams found a way to win against the Seahawks and Broncos in a season where they finished 6-10.  Similarly, Kansas City lost to Tennessee and Oakland in a year where they defeated New England and Seattle. Parity. Parity. Parity.  The NFL is full of it.  One day my predictions will be perfect.  For now, here are the results of my flawed 2014 regular season predictions:

Quick Stats:

Average Differential Between Predicted and Actual: 2.0

Correct Predictions: 4

Predictions Within 1 Game: 11

Predictions off by 3 or More Games: 12

Worst Prediction: Titans (Predicted: 9-7, Actual: 2-14)

Playoff Teams: 9/12

Division Winners: 7/8 

Most Accurately Predicted Division: AFC West + NFC West (Off by 6 games)

Least Accurately Predicted Division: AFC South (Off by 12 games)

At a glance, my predictions turned out alright.  I lowered my Average Differential from last year from 2.2 to 2.0.  Solid.  I'm quite pleased with predicting 7 of the 8 division winners.  Unfortunately, Atlanta blew it for me on the final week of the regular season.  Let's take a closer look at how I did in each division.


AFC West
There's nothing impressive about picking the Broncos to win the AFC West.  This was not the cleverest prediction I made.  In fact, the entire division finished incredibly similar to last year, making the division easy to predict.  The one major difference was that the Chiefs and Chargers both missed the playoffs.  Anyways, I need to eventually get over my Chiefs bias and accept the fact that Alex Smith is good enough to make Kansas City a playoff contender year in, year out.  Phillip Rivers was inconsistent, ultimately leading to San Diego missing the playoffs.  After starting the season as an MVP candidate, Rivers could not even lead his team to the playoffs.  And finally, Oakland finished 3-13, below my predicted five wins.  Fortunately, the future looks brighter than usual for Oakland.  They ended the season with three straight home wins.  I'm hoping they take Amari Cooper in the draft this year.

AFC North
For the second straight year, the AFC North was the only division in which I predicted the final standings exactly right.  Predicting the Steelers as the champions of the North was one of my riskier picks; however, it paid off.  Even though the Steelers ended as division champions, the Bengals still had a strong season, finishing with the top Wild Card spot, which I also predicted.  However, I did not predict that the Ravens would be joining Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the playoffs as well.  The Ravens had a strong season, finishing with 10 wins.  They will be hoping that Flacco can show some of his 2013 playoff magic, if they hope to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three years.  Finally, the Browns had a much better season than I expected.  Mike Pettine (obnoxiously pronounced Pettin) had a great rookie season as a head coach for Cleveland, in arguably the toughest division in the NFL.  If Brian Hoyer can continue to develop, this team could be good in the near future.

AFC South
The AFC South predictably belonged to the Indianapolis Colts again.  With Andrew Luck at the helm, the Colts can expect to be winning this division for the majority of the next fifteen years.  Life is good when you go from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck.  Indianapolis has had that great fortune. Meanwhile, the Texans are trying to bring back the "defense wins Championships" mantra. However, it would be easier if they could just find a franchise quarterback to compliment their prolific defense. It's been a long time since Trent Dilfer won the Super Bowl with the Ravens.  These days, you need at least a decent quarterback to make a run in the playoffs.  The Jaguars found a way to not finish at the bottom of this division for the second year in a row, which I find quite impressive for the lowly Jacksonville side.  They had a "big" win against the Titans to ensure that they would finish in third in the South.  Tennessee had no chance to succeed this year.  I thought they would take a step forward this year, after finishing with seven wins in 2013.  However, Jake Locker is as fragile as they come.  Charlie Whitehurst was not good.  And Zach Mettenberger was in no way the savior that the Titans were looking for this season.

AFC East
It is usually easy to predict the division winners of the AFC.  Denver, Indianapolis, and New England are generally no-brainers.  So, if you manage to correctly predict the AFC North, you've got it. Anyways, the Patriots helped me predict all four division winners in the AFC for the second year in a row.  New England started off slow this season; however, they head into the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC and the clear favorite to win the AFC Conference Title.  Meanwhile, the Bills nearly snagged a playoff spot this season, led by the top defense in the NFL.  This team has nearly all the pieces in place to make a playoff run.  Unfortunately, like many teams in the league, they are looking for their franchise quarterback still.  It does not look like it will be EJ Manuel at the moment. Tannehill had a stellar year for Miami, playing much better than I expected all season.  They looked like a playoff caliber squad, until they lost three of their last four games, including a loss to the Jets in Week 17.  Even with the win over the dolphins in the final week of the season, the Rex Ryan era is finally over in New York.  This team is stuck in a rut at the moment. Geno Smith had sparks of brilliance this season, but he could never get in a consistent rhythm.  The Jets defense is still tough, but there offense needs to get a lot better before they can even think about making a serious playoff run.

NFC West
The NFC West is home to four of the top defenses in the NFL.  It is also home to four of the worst offenses, which made those defenses look all the more impressive during divisional games.  The Seahawks are coming into form just at the right time.  It didn't seem like anyone would be able to catch the Cardinals after the first half of the season; however, a critical injury to Carson Palmer changed everything.  The Seahawks have taken advantage, and appear to be the favorite to win it all and repeat as Super Bowl champions.  Once again, the NFC will go through Seattle.  No team is happy about that.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are falling apart.  It seems unlikely that the Cardinals will get an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl in Arizona.  At this point, I'm sure they are just hoping to get past the first round.  The 49ers finally cracked this year.  This was a team that was lucky to win eight games.  I don't know what happened to San Francisco's offense, but it looked abysmal all season.  With Jim Harbaugh gone, the future looks bleak for the Niners.  49er fans are not happy about how this season went.  Trust me.  I live around a ton of them.  Finally, the Rams outdid my expectations this year, even after he loss of Sam Bradford.  Shaun Hill and Austin Davis did their best to fill the void, but they were not able to do so successfully.  However, the Rams defense made them a tough opponent all season, and the emergence of Tre Mason in the running game is a reason to be optimistic for the future in St. Louis.

NFC North
The Packers still rule the North, but the Lions gave them one helluva fight.  Aaron Rodgers was the best and most consistent quarterback in the league all season.  The only worry for Green Bay is how poorly they looked seventeen weeks ago against Seattle.  If they want to win the NFC Conference Title, they will most likely have to defeat the Seahawks in Seattle.  Meanwhile, even though the Lions were unable to win the division, they still came away with a deserved wild card spot. Unfortunately, you never know what you're going to get with Stafford.  And to make matters worse, their first playoff game is against a Dallas team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment.  The Lions defense has been their rock all season.  Will it be enough to score them a playoff win in Dallas? The Vikings had quite a mediocre season, failing to win a game against an above .500 team.  The biggest question in Minnesota is, are the Vikings ready to move on past Adrian Peterson?  Only time will tell if "All Day" has played his last game for the Vikings.  And finally, do you think the Bears are missing Josh McCown yet?  Cutler was as unimpressive as they come this season.  Does he have a future in Chicago?  Cutler is one of many quarterbacks in the NFL making "elite quarterback" money, while not being on that "elite quarterback" level.  The offseason should be interesting for Chicago.

NFC South

Even though the NFC South was the only division where I failed to predict the division champion, it is still my favorite division.  Carolina is the first team in the history of the current NFC South format to win back-to-back division titles.  And, the division failed to produce an above .500 team.  The NFC South never fails to entertain.  Even though Carolina finished the season below .500, they should be a tough opponent in the playoffs.  They are currently on a four game winning streak, including a Week 17 dismantling of the Falcons in Atlanta.  It is pretty unbelievable that a team with a 3-8-1 record after Week 13 eventually made the playoffs.  I mean, Carolina went on a six game losing streak in the middle of the season.  The Saints ultimately finished second in the division, even though their season was over after Week 16.  The Saints defense was atrocious , and Drew Brees could do nothing about it.  The Saints have a lot of work to do in the offseason on the defensive side of the ball.  Atlanta is a tough team to figure out.  It was not long ago that they had one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, led by an All-Pro quarterback in Matt Ryan.  Now, the Falcons seem a long way from producing another playoff-caliber squad.  First, they must find a coach to replace Mike Smith.  And finally, we can officially say that the Bucs are on the clock.  That's a nice way of saying that Tampa Bay produced the worst football team in the NFL this year.  The Buccaneers own an inexplicable win over Pittsburgh, but other than that, their season was a total bust.  Josh McCown could not produce the numbers that he did in Chicago, even with the deadly receiving tandem of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  Mike Glennon got a crack at running the Tampa Bay offense again, but he was unsuccessful as well.  The Bucs are far from being contenders in this league.  For now, they get to look forward to the first pick in the draft.  Will it be Mariota?

NFC East

How 'bout them Cowboys?  Dallas's trio of Romo, Murray, and Bryant has Cowboy fans remembering the remarkable trio of Aikmen, Smith, and Irvin from the 90's.   Demarco Murray had an unbelievable season running the ball.  Tony Romo and Dez Bryant seemed perfectly in sync.  And the Dallas defense did enough for the Cowboys to win the division.  However, this division may have gone another way if the Eagles were not forced to put in Mark Sanchez after Nick Foles broke his collarbone.  Chip Kelly proved that his fast-paced offense was still worthy of the NFL.  Unfortunately, it wasn't good enough to overcome an injury to his quarterback.  With Foles back for next season, I expect the Eagles to return to the post-season.  The Giants found their talisman in Odell Beckham Jr., but he wasn't nearly good enough to help the Giants be contenders for a playoff spot.  The Giants were simply lousy this year.  I have no problem  with this.  I enjoy watching Eli Manning struggle.  And finally, Washington could not figure out their quarterback situation.  RGIII is still yet to pan out.  Meanwhile, Cousins believes that he should be the starter, and he may have a decent argument.  And Colt McCoy looked like he could be the real deal when he led Washington to back-to-back wins over the Titans and Cowboys, after coming in for an injured Cousins.  Washington has a lot of work to do.  Committing to a quarterback should be their first course of action.

Additional Predictions: 

At the beginning of the season, I predicted Peyton Manning to be the league MVP.  However, it looks like either Aaron Rodgers or J.J. Watt will be grabbing that honor.  Also, my Super Bowl prediction was Denver over Green Bay.  Right now, the Broncos and Packers look like the second best teams in their respective conferences.  We'll see if they can make a run in the playoffs.

The playoffs are fast approaching (tomorrow), and every team left will still believe that they have a chance to win it all.  I will be making my playoff predictions later today, so expect them by tomorrow morning, before the first playoff game starts.  I'm looking forward to another great post-season.  I can only imagine how fun the post-season would be if the Raiders actually made it into the playoffs one of these years... Go Raiders.