It was another beautiful day in Oakland, and I was outside drinking a couple beers with my brother Keith. Keith lives in San Francisco, but he is usually happy to make the trip out to Oakland to hang out, and I don't blame him. In Oakland, you get the great weather of the bay area, and unlike neighboring San Francisco, the sun is always shining.
We like to get together about once every couple of weeks, during the Fall to hang out. On this day, Keith was in the middle of telling me about his weekend in Lake Tahoe, when this somewhat husky guy, in full face paint, walked up to us and asked us for one of our beers. It was a little bizarre, but I guess I’ve seen stranger things happen in Oakland. So, my brother and I saw no harm in relinquishing a beer to this peculiar, hyper-friendly man. He happily snatched the beer out of my hand and took a long, full swig of the Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. It seemed like he wasn't really enjoying the beer the same way Keith and I were, more interested in the alcohol content than the crisp, refreshing taste. He lowered the beer from his lips, and let out a satisfied breath of air. He seemed pleased, and after a moment’s pause, we figured he would engage us in conversation. However, this champion of a man chose to chug the rest of his bottle of Sierra Nevada. He belched, looked around, and for a moment, seemed totally unaware of our presence. As he stood there, Keith and I wondered if he would even address us again or just walk away, pleased with his prolific consumption. However, our thoughts were cut short, as he spiked the bottle on the ground, and released a celebratory, “Wooooo!” The bottle shattered into a million pieces, sprinkling the ground with sparkling glass crystals. Normally, I would be annoyed; however, my brother and I were so surprised by the abruptness of it all that we just started laughing uncontrollably. We decided that our new face-painted friend was worthy of hanging out with us. He introduced himself as Jeremy.
We got to chatting, and Jeremy started to talk to us about the rough year that we had been having, but how bright the future looked, thanks to all the young talent. Keith and I laughed. We've heard this one before. Fifteen years of being Raider fans had given us the pleasure of hearing every old fan talk to us about how close we were to getting back to the Super Bowl. Additionally, now that we both live in the bay area, we’ve had more chances to go to games. The most absurd optimism can be found at a good Raider tailgate, and it looked like this tailgate would be no different. The Raiders were currently toting an embarrassing 0-5 record, making the whole thing seem more humorous than usual. And, appropriately, the Raiders went on to lose to the Cardinals that day, 24-13.
After going to enough Raider games, you start to hear the same things over and over again. It becomes somewhat amusing what fans of a losing team will say and do. We've heard a drunk fan complain that we need to run the ball more, then complain that our running game sucks and that we shouldn't even bother with it, all within the same few minutes. We've heard fans explain how predictable our offense is, while continually guessing wrong what our play call would be. We’ve even seen one fan arrive in the second quarter of a game, only to leave before halftime, tired of watching the awful game.
When a team is so bad, the complaining and advice is non-stop: “We just need the right coach! We just need the right QB! We just need to get our offensive line together! If we would just stop committing so many damn penalties, we would be great! We need to fire the whole damn organization! Thank God we have JaMarcus; now things will change!”
Oh, JaMarcus Russell… It is unbelievable how quickly a fan will throw all his/her hope into the new star player that gets signed. Fans in general, not just Raider fans, are way too impulsive, but I guess that's the fun of it all. You'd be surprised at how many “Schaub” jerseys you would see at Raider games. This year, we'll see plenty of Cooper jerseys, even though he is yet to play a single regular season snap for the SIlver and Black. Even I have fallen into the trap of blind hope when purchasing a jersey, which is why I will be wearing my Khalil Mack jersey on September 13th, when the Raiders host the Bengals at O.co Coliseum.
Hope. That's what it all comes down to. Well, hope and blind fanaticism. Those are the two things that keep the fans going. It's the reason that tickets still get sold for Raider games. I mean, on a Thursday in November of last year, I stood for four quarters, in the pouring rain, and watched the Raiders win their first game of the year, after ten straight losses to open the season. All the fans in that stadium celebrated as though we had won the Super Bowl. And why not? Sports allow me to emphatically celebrate things that are virtually meaningless in the grand scheme of things. The thrill of a positive outcome, when the future is so unknown, gives me a sense of euphoria that is hard to remember, and nearly impossible to recreate synthetically. Every season makes me want it more. The playoffs. A playoff win. A Super Bowl... I am as dumb and fanatical as they come, when you consider the lousy organization that I have supported for most of my life. I mean, it’s been 12.5 years since the Raiders have made the playoffs, but I still love supporting the Silver and Black. And just like every other fan, I can’t wait for the season to start.
With that in mind, let’s get to my predictions. Playoff teams are shown in bold. Let’s start with the AFC...
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 11-5
Until Peyton finally breaks, the Broncos will own the AFC West. Eleven wins seems like a safe bet. Last year, Peyton finally showed that he was a mortal, as his performance dipped towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. So, as Peyton slowly deteriorates, the Broncos will continue to deteriorate as well. However, a bad Peyton is still a great quarterback, so the Broncos will still top the division. However, don’t expect the same, dominant AFC West force that we have grown accustomed to during Denver’s Peyton Manning era.
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
Every year, I underestimate the Chiefs. Will I underestimate them again at 9-7? Alex Smith is good enough to lead a good team, but I will just never be convinced that this team is a top talent. Playoff threat? Sure. Super Bowl threat? Not at all in my mind. I like the addition of Maclin, but I am not sure Smith is good enough to take advantage of his new talented target. However, Maclin should work well alongside Kelce, as an addition to Smith’s passing attack. Additionally, having one of the top running backs in the NFL never hurts. Charles will continue to be that dominant presence in the backfield that Kansas City requires, in order to succeed.
San Diego Chargers: 7-9
Is Philip Rivers any good anymore? Well, yeah. But, is he that good? Rivers looked like an MVP candidate last season, before a poor second half performance left his team clearly out of the playoffs. Can he return to his top tier status, which his team requires for him to succeed? I don’t think so. Either way, it will be fun to see how Melvin Gordon does in this San Diego offense. A rookie in the right situation always makes for an interesting storyline. Meanwhile, Gates continues to defy his age, proving just how valuable chemistry with your quarterback can be.
Oakland Raiders: 6-10
I predict an incredibly successful season for the Raiders, one that will result in SIX WHOLE WINS. That’s right! There is some solid young talent to build around, a budding defense, and a fan base that likes to chuck beer bottles on the ground. While I am excited for the season to come, Oakland still has a bit of a ways to go before they are relevant in the AFC West. For now, I’ll gladly accept Oakland as the emerging talent in a division with Kansas City and San Diego stagnating around mediocrity, along with Peyton getting closer to retirement. Come to think of it, Oakland may be closer to relevance than I give them credit for...
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5
I like the Steelers chances of winning the division again this year. However, it will not be easy. The AFC North has consistently been one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL for a few years now. And with the Browns looking like a decent team, every divisional game will be tough. Still, I like the Steelers to win the division. Big Ben continues to be that consistent force at quarterback. The defense is formidable. The receiving and running threats are real. I expect Pittsburgh to take the AFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7
What Bengals team will we get this year? The defense has been good enough to keep the Bengals competitive in most of their games over the last couple of seasons, and they have the skill position players needed to succeed. However, Dalton will continue to be that question mark. He is an inconsistent piece within a very consistent team. How much longer are the Bengals willing to be a mediocre playoff side? It’s hard to find a quarterback who can be a consistent starter in the NFL, so finding a new quarterback can be a scary prospect. However, one must wonder if Cincinatti will ever reap the rewards of their investment in Dalton. I don’t think they will.
Cleveland Browns: 8-8
The Browns are getting better. I predict that they will finally finish outside of the AFC North basement, but not by much. The Browns have been slowly improving over the last few seasons, and I imagine this trend will continue. I only predict that they will finish 8-8, but I like their potential to be even better. And, when playing in such a tough decision, finishing at .500 is no small feat. I don’t think we will see the Browns in the playoffs this year, but they may be closer than people expect them to be.
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9
The Ravens will take a step back this year. Expect Baltimore to be battling just to be a .500 team. Flacco is a fine quarterback, but I don’t think Baltimore has improved enough, relative to the rest of this division. Forsett showed that he can be the workhorse that Baltimore needs, but as he continues to age, the Baltimore running attack may begin to deteriorate. The Ravens will be a tough team to beat, but I don’t expect to see them back in the playoffs this year.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4
This division will continue to belong to the Colts for the foreseeable future. With Andrew Luck at the helm, Indianapolis will be hosting playoff games for many years to come. I see Houston as a minor threat for the division title, but I still expect the Colts to win this division somewhat comfortably. Twelve wins will continue to be very attainable for Indianapolis, as this division continues to be relatively weak. The Titans and Jaguars provide the Colts with four easy wins each year. That is a great boost for a team’s record and playoff prospects.
Houston Texans: 10-6
The Texans continue to threaten Indianapolis’ stranglehold on the AFC South. However, until they can find the right quarterback, this team will continue to struggle. I actually like Brian Hoyer a lot. He played very well in Cleveland and could be just good enough to lead the Texans into the playoffs. With such a strong defense, Houston only needs a passable offense in order to succeed in this league. And similarly to the Colts, the Texans will benefit from the four nearly guaranteed victories against the Titans and Jaguars. I expect to see Houston in the playoffs this year.
Tennessee Titans: 5-11
Mariota is in for a rude awakening in Tennessee. Quarterbacks have had a lot of trouble leading this team to success, as of late. Having a rookie quarterback act as your savior is a tall task, and I imagine that Mariota is not quite ready for that. It will be interesting to see how he develops in the NFL. Other than that, I don’t think the Titans will be worth watching this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13
The Jaguars have continued to find ways to stay out of last place in the division lately. This says more about the pitiful AFC South as a division than it does about the Jaguars as a team. Bortles will continue to try to make this team relevant again, but there are just too many question marks for this team. The defense and offense are both not very good, and the team continues to fail to improve during the off-season. The Jaguars are a long ways away from being relevant.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 12-4
The Patriots own the AFC East, and there is no reason that they will be relinquishing it this year. The AFC East is an improved division, but the Patriots are still the best team by a good margin. Even if New England had lost Brady for the first four games of the season, there were no concerns about whether or not the Patriots would win the division. Now with another Super Bowl ring, the Patriots continue to be the team to beat in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills: 10-6
This might be a bit bold, but I really like Buffalo’s chances of making the playoffs this year. Sure, the Bills won 9 games last year, so this prediction might not seem that bold. However, it is just hard to imagine Buffalo making the playoffs, until you consider the fact that this is a really good team. The Bills have one of the top defenses in the NFL, along with an emerging offense. I am excited to see what Tyrod Taylor can do at the helm, as I think he is in an excellent position to succeed. Getting help from Lesean McCoy and Sammy Watkins certainly will not hinder Taylor’s ability to lead Buffalo to the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins: 8-8
The Dolphins are good. Good enough to make the playoffs? I don’t think so. Tannehill has developed into a quality NFL starter, but the AFC East is too competitive this year. I don’t think Miami will be able to grab one of the two wild card spots in the AFC. The Dolphins have been steadily putting together a playoff-caliber squad, but I don’t think the team is quite ready to make the jump back to the playoffs this season. Miami has the potential to be very good, very soon. Just not this season.
New York Jets: 4-12
Will the Jets ever be good again? This circus in New York is always quite amusing. Just when you thought things might regress to normal, when Rex Ryan left, Geno Smith got his jaw broken after getting punched in the face by IK Enemkpali. Sure, New York added another weapon in Brandon Marshall. However, I have been watching the NFL too long, and I know better than to get tricked into thinking the New York Jets might be good. I expect more of the same from New York. Long live the Butt Fumble!
16 teams down, 16 to go. Let’s take a look at the NFC...
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 12-4
This division still belongs to the Seahawks, and there is a good chance that the path to the Super Bowl will once again be going through Seattle. The Packers pose the only real threat to Seattle’s pursuit of homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The main problem that Seattle will run into is the strength of the NFC West. This has not been an easy division to conquer. However, with the core of their team still intact and with the addition of Jimmy Graham, the defending NFC Champions will be the favorites to repeat as conference champions.
Arizona Cardinals: 11-5
The Cardinals are an interesting team. Arizona was the best team in the NFL last season, until Carson Palmer tore his ACL, ending both his season and the Cardinals’ dream of hosting the Super Bowl. So, was Arizona really as good as their 9-1 start to last season would suggest? I am not so sure. Either way, the clock is ticking for the Cardinals, as Carson Palmer is limping towards the end of his career. If Arizona can get one more good season out of him, they may be Super Bowl contenders. Otherwise, who knows how long it will be before the Cardinals find another quality quarterback after Carson Palmer. If last season was any indication, the Cardinals need a good, well at least decent quarterback to succeed.
St. Louis Rams: 7-9
The Rams season will come down to one question: Do you think Nick Foles is actually any good? Foles is in a great position. Assuming Foles does not get hurt, St. Louis will benefit immensely from not having to replace their starting quarterback this year. The Rams were able to put together a decent season in 2014, while having Austin Hill and Shaun Davis behind center. If those two quarterbacks can have mild success, I imagine that Nick Foles will only do better. Consistency at quarterback is incredibly valuable in the NFL. The Rams have the potential to have a great year. Unfortunately, conquering the NFC West will be a monumental task. However, if things fall right, the Rams may have enough talent to make the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12
It’s back to the dark ages for the Niners. This team is really bad again. You got owners and coaches that don’t know what they’re doing, a fleet of players leaving, and a fanbase that has already given up on the season. And I don’t blame them. Jed York moved the team to Santa Clara, fired possibly the best coach in the NFL (and replaced him with some guy named Jim Tomsula), and made a slew of bad roster moves. When you couple all of this nonsense with much of the team’s core leaving due to suspension, retirement, and free agency, you have a real big problem. Meanwhile, the rest of this division continues to get better. The Niners are in for a rough year. Expect an 0-6 division record, and more lame apologies from Jed York this season.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 12-4
Sure, the injury to Jordy Nelson hurts this team, but Aaron Rodgers is simply too good. The Packers will win the NFC North again, even without Nelson. While I predict a comfortable division crown for the Packers, don’t expect the rest of the division to just keel over. The Lions were a very strong team last year, the Vikings are only getting better, and the Bears have Jay Cutler (not sure if that’s a good thing). I imagine one of those three teams will challenge Green Bay at least a little bit. Either way, as we get deeper into the season, I expect Green Bay to shift their attention from the division crown to a more difficult task, keeping their Super Bowl path away from Seattle. Expect the Packers to be battling hard for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings: 8-8
Adrian Peterson, possibly the greatest running back of all time is returning, and Teddy Bridgewater is emerging as a young star quarterback. Eight wins might be too conservative of a prediction for Minnesota. However, in a tough division like the NFC North, every game will be hard fought. So, I was not bold enough to predict a playoff birth for the Vikings. However, don’t be surprised if this team is fighting for a wild card spot, late in the regular season.
Detroit Lions: 8-8
With Calvin Johnson healthy, the sky is the limit for this potent Lions offense. Detroit’s defense was very good as well last season, helping them grab a playoff spot. However, a weakened defensive unit, which includes the loss of Suh, may be too much for Detroit to overcome. I expect Detroit and Minnesota to both be battling for playoff spots this season; however, I predict that only Green Bay will make the playoffs out of the NFC North.
Chicago Bears: 6-10
I am not impressed with Jay Cutler. I never have been. Now, take away his best target, and I imagine I will be even less impressed with him this year. The Bears found themselves at the bottom of the NFC North standings last year, and that is where I expect to see them again this year. The Lions, Packers, and Vikings have continued to get better, while the Bears have not. The NFC North is a very good division, and I expect it to be too much for Chicago.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 9-7
Will the Saints finally return to winning ways this year? In the weakest division in the NFL, the goal is to predict which team will be the least bad. In my mind, this will be the Saints. Predicting the Saints to win the division with only nine wins should show how little confidence I have in New Orleans. Once an offensive juggernaut, the weaknesses in their offense have been exposed. Meanwhile, there defense continues to lag behind. In spite of all that, I expect the Saints to win the NFC South and return to the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8
What happened to the NFC South? The Saints, Falcons, and Panthers have all had great seasons in recent memory. However, after last season, it is hard to know how talented any of these teams are. I’m still waiting on Matt Ryan to return to his top-tier status, but maybe he just wasn’t that good to begin with. He has one of the top receiving threats in the NFL, in Julio Jones. If Ryan cannot succeed with Jones, maybe Atlanta will have to start looking for new QB options in the near future.
Carolina Panthers: 6-10
It seems strange that Carolina refuses to provide Cam Newton with some decent wide receiver options. Things finally looked slightly better for the Carolina receiving corps, until Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season-ending injury. With Benjamin out, the lack of depth at wide receiver is once again a glaring problem in Carolina. I don’t think Cam Newton is quite good enough to overcome this talent gap. Meanwhile, with Jonathan Stewart inching closer to the end of his career, fans in North Carolina must be concerned about where the offensive production will come from for the Panthers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-13
Jameis Winston might be a decent starting quarterback one day, but I do not think he will be good enough during his rookie season to turn the fortunes of the Bucs around. Tampa Bay has a squad that is slowly improving, but I imagine that this season will go poorly. However, the NFC South is consistently the hardest division to predict. So, I guess you never know. Maybe this will be a turnaround season for the Buccaneers.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5
There is no question that Eagles have had the most exciting offseason. However, whether or not it was a beneficial offseason is still up for debate. The big headlines were bringing in Murray and Bradford for McCoy and Foles. However, a slew of other moves leaves a lot of questions to be answered in Philadelphia. Personally, it was hard to follow every move that the Eagles made, but I trust Chip Kelly. He has proven himself as a successful college and NFL coach. Now, given free reign to make the moves that he wants, Kelly has had the opportunity to construct a team to his liking. The NFC East will be fun to watch. I expect the Eagles to take the division title.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
The Cowboys were not able to properly replace Demarco Murray this offseason. Darren McFadden is at the tail-end of a career which has been somewhat disappointing. Granted, he probably would have had more success if he had spent his career somewhere other than Oakland, but still, if McFadden is fighting for your lead running back role this late in his career, then your running backs are pretty bad. However, the Dallas O-Line is still one of the top units in the league. So, I expect the offense to be successful anyways. While I don’t see Dallas winning the division again, I do expect them to grab a playoff spot.
New York Giants: 6-10
The Giants will not be good this season. The only reason this team is worth watching is to see if Odell Beckham Jr. will make some more spectacular catches this season. Otherwise, don’t bother. Philadelphia and Dallas will be fighting for the division crown again, while New York and Washington battle for NFC East inferiority.
Washington: 3-13
Washington has finally given up on RGIII. It is unfortunate to see such a talented player not reach his potential. RGIII is a good quarterback with incredible athleticism. Unfortunately, when he tore his ACL two and a half years ago, he never truly recovered. So, a new post-RGIII era begins in Washington. Kirk Cousins will try to prove his worth to a frustrated Washington fan base. Kirk and Washington have a mountain to climb. They are likely in for another tough season.
Bonus Predictions:
MVP:
Aaron Rodgers
The defending MVP will be one of the favorites to win the award again, and I don’t see any reason to disagree with that. Nelson’s injury may hurt his chances a bit. However, Rodgers is the best player in the league in my mind, so I like his chances at being crowned the league’s most valuable player, by season’s end.
Super Bowl:
The most likely Super Bowl contenders are Seattle, New England, Denver, and Green Bay. So, it would make sense to pick two of those four teams, but where’s the fun in that? What if I predicted a way more interesting Super Bowl outcome, something like…
Buffalo Bills defeat Green Bay Packers, 20-17
Alright, I couldn’t leave out ALL four of the teams that I mentioned above, but still! The Bills?! That’s right, the Bills!
Tyrod Taylor immediately propels himself to legend status within the city limits of Buffalo, as he leads the least successful Super Bowl franchise in NFL history (along with the Minnesota Vikings) to victory, over one of the most prolific franchises in the history of the NFL.
Well, there you have it. The NFL season is only hours away now. Everyone’s favorite team is currently undefeated. If you were wise, having already read my predictions, you wouldn’t even waste your time watching the actual NFL season. However, I guess you could still watch if you really wanted. I will admit that there is a small chance that I don’t predict the season 100% accurately, but that would be pretty surprising.
Anyways, sorry to all the die-hard fans that I may have offended with my predictions. From one fan of an awful team to another, I wish you good luck. Now, let’s get the season underway! Football is back! Go Raiders.
