2017 Conference Championship Weeked Recap

Well, that was an awful weekend of football. I guess I was naive to think that we would have two good games, as the Falcons and Patriots were far and away the better teams, absolutely crushing the Packers and Steelers. With only one game remaining in the playoffs, there have only been two playoff games decided by one score, and only one of those was truly entertaining (Green Bay’s 34-31 victory over Dallas). The Super Bowl will be our last hope for a second entertaining game. Fortunately, the two remaining teams both look incredibly good. Hopefully they have saved their best for last because these playoffs have been pretty boring so far. As far as my predictions go, I went 1-1 straight up and 0-2 ATS over the weekend, which brings my 2017 playoff total to 8-2 straight up and 5-5 ATS. My predictions for this season’s playoffs have been unfortunately mediocre.

Atlanta Falcons defeat Green Bay Packers, 44-21

From the very beginning, the Atlanta offense looked unstoppable, as they scored a touchdown on their first possession. The Packer defense made a couple of nice plays, but the Falcons dominated on third down (they finished the day 10/13). From the very beginning of the game, it was apparent that Green Bay would be unable to cover Julio Jones (and most of the other Atlanta receivers). Since that was the case, it would be up to the Green Bay offense to keep pace with Atlanta. On the Packers’ first possession, they were able to respond to the Falcons’ hot start with a nice drive of their own, but Mason Crosby capped off the drive with his first missed field goal in 23 playoff attempts. That would turn out to be an ominous sign for the beatdown that was to come. On Atlanta’s second drive, the demolition continued, as the Packers failed to cover receivers and then failed to tackle those receivers in space. Green Bay showed some life though, holding Atlanta to a field goal. Again, the Packers responded with a strong drive, but a Ripkowski fumble in the red zone made it all for naught. The crucial mistakes were slowly building up for the Packers. Atlanta immediately made Green Bay pay for the mistake with another clinical drive, extending their lead to 17-0.

That’s when the wheels began to fall off, as Green Bay went three and out on their ensuing possession. The Packers continued to squander golden opportunities to get back into the game, as Green Bay’s next great chance to get the ball in great field position was missed, when Taylor Gabriel was able to recover his own fumble on an ill-designed trick play. The Packer defense again failed to make plays on the final drive of the half, missing two more great turnover opportunities when Ryan made a couple of bad throws that should have resulted in interceptions. Atlanta capitalized again on Green Bay’s inability to capitalize by scoring a touchdown with three seconds left in the half, when Ryan found Jones in the endzone for a spectacular sideline tiptoe catch.

Atlanta went into halftime with a 24-0 lead. Twenty Four to ZERO. However, the demolition was not over just yet. The Falcons got off to a perfect second half start, forcing the Packers into another three and out, and scoring two plays later on a ridiculous Julio Jones catch and run. That play sealed it. Green Bay was able to make some respectable plays in garbage time, so Rodgers’ stat line ultimately looked fine, but this game was all Atlanta. The Falcons got a few lucky breaks, but even without those bits of luck, it is hard to imagine that the Packers would have been able to win this one. The Falcons are flying high, and the offense is playing at its peak. Similarly, the defense should be given credit for holding the red hot Packer offense to only 21 points. Ultimately, the headlines will be about Matt Ryan. Ryan will almost certainly win the league MVP this season, and he only solidified his case by putting up MVP numbers in the NFC Conference Championship Game, going 27/38 for 392 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Flawless.

New England Patriots defeat Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-17

From the very beginning, New England looked unstoppable, as the defense and offense were able to combine for an early 10-0 lead in the first quarter. The Steelers made a couple of nice plays, but they were unable to gain any significant chunks of yards down the field. The defense briefly held firm against Brady, but as the game progressed, the secondary slowly unraveled, leaving Hogan and Edelman in inexplicable amounts of space. On the other side of the ball, the Steeler offense had their hands full with this strong New England defensive unit. And to make matters worse, Le’Veon Bell went down with an injury in the first quarter, which certainly did not help Pittsburgh’s cause. While Deangelo Williams is no ordinary backup running back, he is not nearly at the talent level of Bell. Bell was clearly missed in the ground game, as Pittsburgh was only able to gain 54 yards rushing throughout the entire game.

Unlike the Packers, the Steelers at least showed some life in the first half, cutting the lead to 10-6 after the Patriots’ hot start. However, New England immediately responded by scoring a touchdown on their next possession with the help of a little trickery, when they ran a perfectly executed flea flicker. Dion Lewis did a great job of running the ball all the way to the line, which is very important for executing a successful flea flicker. When Brady got the ball back from Lewis, the Steelers had already decided not to cover Hogan (a decision they decided to make all day), as he was left wide open for the easy touchdown.

The game-changing moment was when New England came up with a huge goal line stand just before the half. The goal line stand was preceded by a drop in the endzone by Hamilton and a great tackle by Hightower which kept Jesse James out of the endzone on the play that set up Pittsburgh with 1st and goal. At halftime, the score was a manageable 17-9. However, that was short-lived, as New England scored on their first three possessions of the second half, sealing the game. Over that same span, the Steelers could do no better than two punts and a fumble. Brady showed that he still has plenty in the tank, nearly matching Ryan’s incredible performance from the game before, with a stat line of 32/42 for 384 yards, 3 TDs and, 0 INTs. Roethlisberger ended up having a solid game, eclipsing 300 yards through the air, but the ground game was nearly non-existent. Bell was not able to do much before he got hurt, though I imagine he would have been more effective had he had the chance to play some more snaps. Still, the New England defense is predicated on their excellent ability to stop the run, so a healthy Bell may not have been able to influence the game anyways. Without their usual solid running game, the Pittsburgh offense was unable to sustain drives long enough to put consistent points on the board. As the Steeler offense stalled, Brady and the Patriots thrived, as they were able to pull away in the third quarter, booking a trip to Houston for Super Bowl LI.

Ultimately, both games ended up providing little entertainment for the neutral fan, as both dominant performances were predicated on the losing team’s total inability to cover receivers and tackle in space. Looking back at the highlights, the Patriots seemed to play a more complete game, never giving the Steelers a chance, and coming up with big plays when it mattered most. The Falcons ended up with the more dominant scoreline; however, the Packers were unlucky at some of the more crucial moments in the game, allowing the Falcons to run away with it early. Both winning teams showed that they have an offense capable of picking apart any defense, and a defense with the ability to at least slow down a talented offense. Two great teams are set to meet in Super Bowl LI. I’ll be back next week to make Super Bowl predictions. Stay tuned, as both the NFL and Brosh Knows Football seasons draw closer to the end.

Playoff Predictions: 2017 Conference Championships

The Final Four. After two rounds of playoff football, we are left with four teams, each representing seeds 1, 2, 3, or 4 in their respective conferences. As the number 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots (1) are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons (2) represent the top remaining seed in the NFC. The Steelers (3) were able to upset the Chiefs in the divisional round to clinch a trip to Foxborough. And finally, the Packers (4) represent the lowest remaining seed in the playoffs, as they were able to upset the top seeded Cowboys last weekend. We’ve got two great games ahead of us this weekend. With only three NFL games left in the season, Saturday football is over until next year. Only two Sundays of NFL action remain.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Sunday, 3:05 PM ET (Current Line, Falcons -5.5)

The final game in the Georgia Dome will be the NFC Conference Championship Game. It will be a great send-off for the stadium, as two of the top offenses in the NFL will go to battle this Sunday. While the Falcons had the top scoring offense over the entire season, the Packer offense has looked just as dangerous as any other team in the NFL over the course of their current eight game win streak. Green Bay is in top form, as they just came out of Dallas with a hard-fought win. Now, they face Atlanta, in what should be a high scoring affair. Neither team plays much defense, so it should be very entertaining for the neutral fan. The only thing that could likely hinder a complete offensive explosion of a game is if Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson were not able to suit up due to injury. Adams hurt himself at the end of the game against Dallas, and Nelson broke his ribs against New York. Both are listed as questionable heading into Sunday’s game. Similarly, Julio Jones was listed as questionable earlier in the week, but all signs point to him playing this weekend.

It is very hard to say who has the edge in this game. Atlanta has been consistently great all year, while Green Bay has only come into top form over the second half of the season, playing like the best team in the league. Of course, Atlanta just put an impressive beatdown on Seattle, showing how well they can play when they are at their best. Both teams have a ton of weapons at their disposal, with two of the deepest rosters of WRs/RBs in the league. The Falcons and Packers can beat you in many different ways with many different players. With two evenly matched teams, this game may come down to one big play...

Prediction: The Falcons strike first, as they get out to an early 17-7 lead. However, the Packers keep it close in the first half, as Montgomery finds the endzone twice. At halftime, the Falcons hold a slight lead, 20-17. The game is back and forth, and with 5 minutes left, the Packers grab their first lead of the game, 30-27 on a Rodgers to Rodgers touchdown pass. On the ensuing drive, Ryan leads the Falcons down the field, setting up Bryant with a 33 yard field goal to tie the game with 1 minute remaining. He makes it. However, the Packers jump offside on the play, which results in a Falcons first down. Two plays later, Ryan capitalizes on the mistake, finding Julio Jones for the touchdown. Down by 4, Rodgers gets the Packers to the 50 yard line for one final play. Rodgers launches the hail mary, but it falls incomplete. Falcons win, 34-30.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

Sunday, 6:40 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -6.0)

The New England defense will finally get a test this Sunday. The Patriots have had a surprisingly great defense all season, finishing first in points allowed. However, the detractors will argue that they have faced none of the top offenses in the league, which, for the most part, is true. Even the time the Patriots faced the Steelers in the regular season, Roethlisberger was injured, so Landry Jones was forced to make the start. So, will this finally be the game where a team is able to crack the New England defense? Pittsburgh certainly has plenty of great offensive weapons to choose from. The Patriots will have their hands full, as they will have to deal with the strength and speed of Bell and Brown.

On the other side of the ball, the Steeler defense been a solid unit for most of the regular season. Brady will have to play well, and his receivers and running backs will have to step up, if they hope to put up enough points to win. The three headed monster in the backfield for New England has been great all season. Blount has been a touchdown machine, excelling in the Patriot offense. Lewis and White have been very dangerous as well, acting as great change of pace backs and pass catchers out of the backfield. Wide receiver, as usual, has been a weakness for New England all season. Edelman quietly had a great year, racking up nearly 100 catches for over 1000 yards. Of course, the passing attack has not been nearly as good without Gronkowski. Still, Brady has found ways to succeed, revitalizing Michael Floyd’s season and Chris Hogan’s career. While both teams have offensive weapons, I expect a tight defensive struggle. Ultimately, this game will probably come down to which team can score touchdowns when they find themselves deep in opponent’s territory. Something tells me that six Boswell field goals won’t cut it for the Steelers this time around...

Prediction: It’s all defense in the first half, as both teams struggle to move the ball. Le’Veon Bell finds the endzone and Blount rushes for a score in the first half, as the Patriots take a slim 10-7 lead into halftime. The game remains tight until the end. In the fourth quarter, with only three minutes remaining, the Steelers take their first lead of the game on a 33 yard Boswell field goal. On the following drive, Brady leads the Patriot offense down the field, and with 45 seconds remaining, the Patriots are forced to settle for a 48 yard field goal attempt. Gostkowski lines up for the game-winner… and misses. The Pittsburgh offense gets the ball back and is able to run out the clock. Steelers win, 23-20.

Only two teams will have the honor of representing their respective conference in Super Bowl LI. By the end of the weekend, we will know who those two teams will be (of course, you already know after reading the above predictions). A Super Bowl champion will be crowned in just over two weeks. Three of the four remaining quarterbacks already have a Super Bowl to their name, and the one that does not (Ryan) has quarterbacked the top offense in the NFL this season Great quarterbacks generally lead to great football. If that’s the case, we’re in for a thrilling final two weeks of football.

2017 Divisional Round Recap

Homefield advantage. That was the name of the game heading into Sunday’s action. With two more home team victories  to start the weekend, home teams had extended their playoff win streak to a dominant 12 straight games over the last two postseasons. However, homefield advantage finally caved on Sunday, as both the Packers and Steelers were victorious on the road, starting a road team playoff win streak of two games. Now, both the Steelers and Packers will look to continue the new road team trend, along with extending their own respective 8 and 9 game win streaks, heading into Conference Championship Weekend. As for my predictions for the Divisional Round, I went an expected 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS. That brings my total to 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS. That’s pretty good. I mean, it’s far from the perfect record that I know I am capable of, but I guess it’s still acceptable.

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) defeat Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1), 36-20

While I got my prediction correct, I did say that this game would be a bit closer. Seattle came out looking great, scoring on their first drive in convincing fashion. However, just as I said they would, Atlanta responded immediately with an impressive touchdown drive of their own. From the beginning, it looked like this game would produce plenty of points; however, things slowed down a bit after the quick offensive starts, as both defenses showed some life. Wilson was harassed all game, getting little help from his offensive line. By no coincidence, the turning point of the game was when Wilson tripped on his own lineman at the goal line, resulting in a safety. The safety was the start of a 19-0 run for Atlanta. That moment was huge with regards to the momentum of the game. Two plays earlier, Hester had made a big punt return, setting up the Seattle offense with first and goal. However, a holding penalty was enforced at Seattle’s own 13 yard line on the return, pinning the Seahawks down inside their own ten yard line. From then until the end of the game, Atlanta kept up the pressure, blowing out the Seahawks.

Freeman and Coleman were awesome, accounting for a combined 204 all-purpose yards. Ryan was his usual brilliant self, going for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson had a solid game, but he was mostly kept in check. His stat line was hurt by a couple of interceptions, one of which was the result of him forcing the ball due to the large deficit, and the other was the unlucky result of a wild tipped ball. The Seahawks were able to show that they were a strong side, but they also displayed their many weaknesses en route to the defeat. The offensive line needs work, the defense is banged up, and the run game was non-existent. Of course, this dismantling may have been more of a symptom of Atlanta’s talent, rather than Seattle’s weakness. And if that’s the case, the three remaining playoff teams better watch out.

New England Patriots (14-2) defeat Houston Texans (9-7), 34-16

This game was ugly for both sides. While I fully expected the Texan offense to struggle, I did not expect such a poor game from Brady and the New England offense. In retrospect, I should have been able to predict some of the offensive struggles for the Patriots, considering the fact that Houston had the top defense in the NFL this season. Either way, the game got off to the expected start, as a Dion Lewis kick return touchdown gave the Patriots an early 14-3 lead. At this point, it didn’t seem like the game would be worth watching. However, Houston came storming back (as stormingly as their lethargic offense can be), forcing Brady into only his third interception of the season. Houston came within one point of the Patriots in the first half, and they were able to come up with a huge goal line stand at the end of the second quarter, heading into halftime with a manageable 17-13 deficit. At the start of the second half, Houston kept the pressure on, unlucky not to come up with another interception on the first play of the third quarter. The Texans suddenly believed they could win this one. With Houston’s defense in top form, they were able to force Brady into a second interception. However, the Texan offense began to show its true colors, as they were only able to tack on another field goal in the second half, getting outscored 17-3.

New England definitely showed some vulnerabilities in this game, but those vulnerabilities were largely a result of how impressive the Houston secondary was. The scariest part of all of this was that New England was still able to put up 34 points in a game where their offense looked bad. Brady finished 18/38 for 287 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. That’s quite mediocre. Of course, Osweiler was able to outdo Brady’s level of poor play, finishing with an even worse stat line of 198 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Dion Lewis was the star of the show, scoring three touchdowns, including a kick return touchdown in the first half (though he also fumbled the ball away on a later kick return). While this game was not as lopsided as I had predicted, the Patriots were still able to win by three scores while playing some of their worst football of the season.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) defeat Dallas Cowboys (13-3), 34-31

Finally, a good game. Not just a good game, a phenomenal game. I got this one pretty close to right on, predicting the following:

“As the end of the game looms closer, the Cowboys tie it up on a Dan Bailey 46-yard field goal, 27-27. With 1 minute left and no timeouts, Rodgers leads the Packers down the field, setting up Crosby for a game winning field goal attempt from 53 yards out. He nails it. Packers win, 30-27.”

Unfortunately, I was off on some of the finer details. Dan Bailey’s game-tying field goal was 52 yards, not 46 (Stupid me). I was right that Rodgers had less than a minute remaining to orchestrate the game-winning drive, but it was with two timeouts, not zero (Duh!). Crosby’s game-winner was 51 yards, not 53 (Oops). And, the final score was 34-31, not 30-27 (Way off). I guess I was pleased with my prediction, even though I strive for perfection, not adequacy.

Also as I predicted, the Packers got out to the early lead, up 14-3 at the beginning of the second quarter. From there, the game seesawed back and forth around a two score lead for Green Bay. However, the Cowboys made an incredible 4th quarter comeback, as Prescott was at his most impressive in the clutch. Bryant came up with some big catches, and Dak made some big plays, including a huge 2-point conversion to tie the game at 28. However, this game was all about Rodgers, who was at his absolute best, making perfect passes over and over again, including some especially difficult throws on the run. Even though his stat line was good, the numbers do not do Rodgers justice, as he finished 28/43 for 355 yards. Dallas’s rookies had great games as well, as Zeke finished with an impressive 125 yards, and Dak eclipsed 300 yards through the air. However, Green Bay was just too good. If this is the Rodgers that shows up in the rest of the playoffs, Green Bay will be nearly impossible to beat. Of course, if there is one quarterback in the league who can outduel Rodgers, it is Matt Ryan. How convenient that they will face off against each other in the Conference Championship Game next weekend...

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) defeat Kansas City Chiefs (12-4), 18-16

Our final game of the weekend was also a close one, though not nearly as exciting as the game that preceded it. Led by six Boswell field goals, the Steelers capped off a perfect weekend of predictions for me. Had Pittsburgh been able to convert a single touchdown on any of their many possessions that ended in Kansas City territory, this game would not have been nearly as close as it ended up being. The scoreboard did not reflect Pittsburgh’s dominance. It would appear as though scoring field goals instead of touchdowns was the main difference in the result of this game versus the contest from earlier in the regular season, where the Steelers dominated, 43-14. I guess you could say that the Steelers were not dominant and that the Chiefs simply did a great job of “buckling down when it counted most”; however, I saw a team get completely dominated, only lucky to have a chance to win late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs had no answer for Le’Veon Bell, who finished with 170 yards on the ground on an insane 30 carries. Roethlisberger was adequate, finishing with 224 yards passing, unable to put the finishing touch on a single drive. Similarly, Alex Smith put in his usual game-managing performance, finishing with a lackluster 172 yards through the air. Perhaps even worse for the Chiefs, the ground game was only able to gain 61 total yards against Pittsburgh’s stout defense.

Still, the Chiefs kept within striking distance for the entire game, taking on that “bend but don’t break” mentality. As the game drew closer to the end, I felt some deja vu, as Alex Smith and Andy Reid worked together to once again demonstrate how to run the slowest hurry up offense in the NFL, taking over seven minutes off the clock on their final possession. Even though they scored, Reid and Smith did not leave enough time on the clock for the scenario in which they did not convert the 2 point conversion. Of course, that is exactly what happened. Had it not been for Eric Fisher’s ill-timed holding penalty on Kansas City’s 2 point conversion attempt, I might not be talking about another one of Andy Reid’s time-wasting drives. I would probably be talking about a beautifully orchestrated drive by Alex Smith in the waning moments of the game, en route to their Divisional Round victory. Of course, that’s not how it worked out, as the Steelers came up with the all important first down on their next possession after Andy Reid elected not to attempt an onside kick, allowing the Steelers to kneel the ball and win the game.

Eight games down, three to go. The playoffs are down to the final four, with an exciting Conference Championship Weekend ahead of us. In less than three weeks, a Super Bowl Champion will be crowned. Fortunately for all the fans of the NFL, all four teams are certainly deserving of the Lombardi Trophy. The only question that now remains is who will step up when it matters most. Predictions for Conference Championship Weekend will be coming later this week. Stay tuned for more Brosh Knows Football!

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2017

The Divisional Playoff Round is upon us. Each of the eight divisions are still represented in the playoffs, as all division winners won on Wild Card Weekend. Every single game this weekend is a rematch from the regular season, which adds an extra bit of intrigue to each contest. What has each team learned since their previous matchup? What adjustments have they made? Who holds the advantage in each game, the winners or losers from the previous matchup? Due to injuries, how do the rosters compare to the first matchup? How many more of these questions will there be? None. No more questions. Only answers. Please read on to find all the answers to your playoff inquiries.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Falcons -5.0)

We open the divisional round with the battle of the birds. Back in Week 6, the Seahawks defeated the the Falcons in Seattle, 26-24. Now, the rematch will be in Atlanta, as the Falcons look to avenge the loss. As I’ve noted in previous posts, Seattle has been egregiously bad on the road this season, especially the offense. Fortunately for the Seahawks, the Falcons are no defensive juggernaut, as they ranked 27th in the league in points allowed. However, this team is not built on defense. Atlanta is all offense, ranking first in the league in points and second in yards. Matt Ryan used his phenomenal, likely MVP-caliber season to re-establish himself as a top tier quarterback in the NFL. So, how did the Falcons improve so much from last year? Most of the key offensive pieces from the 2015 season went unchanged, which would indicate that it was the seemingly small changes that made the difference. New center Alex Mack has been awesome, helping the run game and improving Ryan’s pass protection. Additionally, the receivers not named Julio have been formidable, as Gabriel and Sanu are making plays and drawing attention away from Jones. Give a great quarterback like Matt Ryan all of these tools, and the offense is sure to succeed. The only questions is whether or not the Seahawks banged up defense can stop the potent Falcon offense.

In Week 6, it took a questionable no-call on a critical 4th down for Seattle to beat Atlanta. Still a win is a win, and the Seahawks had played a great game to even put themselves in position to win. As has been true for the last few seasons, the Seahawks have gone as far as their defense carried them this year. Even with Earl Thomas out for multiple games, the Seahawk defense was still able to play at an elite level during the regular season. They will need to be at their best to stop Ryan and the rest of the Atlanta offense. Seattle will have to put pressure on Ryan, Sherman will have to be lockdown on Julio, and the offense is going to have to score some points if they hope to even have a chance in this game. I expect an exciting game that could come down to one or two big plays.

Prediction: Rawls scores on a 75 yard rushing touchdown on Seattle’s first offensive possession. Ryan immediately responds, by leading Atlanta down the field on a touchdown drive of their own, to tie the game at 7. Things calm down, as the game is back and forth until the fourth quarter. Down by six with two minutes remaining, Wilson leads the Seahawks into Atlanta territory. On 4th and 6, Wilson overthrows Jimmy Graham. Graham wants a pass interference call after he was clearly tackled before the ball arrived. However, the throw is controversially ruled uncatchable. Falcons win, 27-21.

Houston Texans (9-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -16.0)

There are three great matchups this weekend that I am looking forward to watching. There is also this awful game. The Texans face the Patriots in New England in what will most likely be an unwatchable affair. Earlier this season, the Patriots defeated the Texans 27-0 with third stringer JACOBY BRISSETT at quarterback. Of course, that game was back in Week 3, so you must take it with a grain of salt. Both of these teams have changed plenty since that contest. Unfortunately for Houston, the main difference from that game will be that a guy named Brady will be at quarterback for New England. Assuming an anemic offensive performance from the Texans, Brady and the offense should expect to be set up with incredible field position all day, making their lives that much easier. The Patriots defense has been phenomenal this year, and I would be shocked if they were challenged at all by this woeful Texan offense. The only chance the Texans will have to score points will be through the ground game, which is exactly where the Patriot defense has excelled all season. It’s hard to see any way for the Texans to win this game...

However, if you look really hard for a reason to believe that there is any hope for Houston, you can point out that Gronkowski is out and Cushing is playing this time around. Also, Osweiler should be much more comfortable in the Houston system than he was in Week 3, when he was still learning the offense. Still, even a perfect performance by Osweiler may not be enough to defeat this overpowered New England team. Putting pressure on Brady will be crucial for the Texans. Clowney, Mercilus, and the rest of the front seven are going to have to re-enact last week’s dominant performance, in order to beat the Patriots. I guess they might have a chance…

Prediction: This game is awful. The Patriots strike first… and second… and third, on their way to a 24-3 halftime lead. Houston shows some life in the second half, scoring first, but it is all for naught, as New England cruises to victory behind Blount’s three rushing touchdowns. Patriots win, 38-10.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Sunday, 8:20 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -1.5)

Vegas predicts that this will be the closest game of the weekend, as the Chiefs are slight favorites to win at home against the surging Steelers. Pittsburgh has been literally unbeatable over the last eight games, and they will look to add a ninth in a row on Sunday. If the eight game winning streak wasn’t enough to make the Steelers confident, they already have an impressive early season thrashing of Kansas City on their resume, a game which they won at Heinz Field, 43-14. In that game, Roethlisberger finished with 300 yards and 5 TDs, and Bell contributed 178 yards on the ground en route to the rout. Roethlisberger and the Steeler offense won’t have to be quite that good if they hope to win in Kansas City this time around. However, Big Ben will need to play better than he did last week if he hopes to add another playoff victory to his career. Roethlisberger threw two interceptions last week and was inconsistent for most of the game. His stat line benefited mightily from the many yards after catch that Antonio Brown accumulated. Cutting down on turnovers will be key for Roethlisberger and the Steelers this weekend. Pittsburgh has the talent to win, as long as they don’t beat themselves.

The Chiefs have not been sensational this season, but they have continuously found ways to win. It would be hard to argue that they are not worthy of their 12-4 record, especially considering their undefeated divisional record in the AFC West. Alex Smith has been his usual self this year, playing mistake-free, solid football (though I did see him throw three red zone INTs this season). Put Smith next to one of the top ground games and defenses in the league, and you get a great Chiefs season. This is the usual formula for Kansas City, as the Chiefs have found ways to win games on ball security and takeaways alone. However, none of that matters now. The Chiefs have been consistently great in the regular season for the past four seasons without much postseason success. Actually, their postseason frailty has haunted them since since 1994, having gone 1-9 in the playoffs since then. Will this finally be the season where the Chiefs make it back to the AFC Championship game, a game they have not reached since 1993?

Prediction: Defense reigns supreme in the first quarter, as both teams can only muster field goals. In the second quarter, Antonio Brown and Spencer Ware both find the endzone, and at halftime the score is 13-13. Pittsburgh gains the advantage in the second half, and looks as though they will put the game away when they take a 26-16 fourth quarter lead. The Chiefs come back though, scoring a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining. Kansas City fails to recover the ensuing onside kick, and Le’Veon Bell is able to ice the game on the ground. Steelers win, 26-23.  

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -4.5)

If the Cowboys had a choice of opponent, I would guess that they would prefer to face the Seahawks in the Divisional Round. However, they do not, so they are stuck with a tough game against the red hot Packers. The Packers have looked like the best team in the NFC over the last several weeks, and it will certainly be tough for the Cowboys to slow them down, even while playing in front of their home field crowd in Dallas. Prescott and Zeke are set to make their playoff debuts, but will they be able to step up on the big stage? The Packers have not had a very strong defense for most of the season, ranking second to last against the pass, and the Cowboys still have the best offensive line in the league. So, I expect Dak to have plenty of time to throw the ball and get comfortable, even in such a tense playoff atmosphere.  

The Packers will look to capitalize on their clear advantage at quarterback. The least experienced quarterback in the NFL will be battling against one of the league’s best in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have basically given up on the running game this season, and it has not appeared to hinder the offense. However, Rodgers will most likely be without his favorite target, Jordy Nelson in this tough divisional round matchup. Even if Nelson plays, it will most likely be somewhat limited. Adams and Cobb will have to pick up the slack, and if last week is any indication, we know that they can. Green Bay will have to slow down Elliot if they hope to keep the game tight. In a close game, I would give the edge to the Packers, as Rodgers has a made a career of staying calm, cool, and collected in tough situations. With that in mind, keeping within one score of the Cowboys for the entire game should put the Packers in a strong position to win this one.

Prediction: The nerves are clearly visible for Dallas, as they stumble out to a 10-0 deficit, due in part to an early Prescott interception. The game remains close, as the Packers have a slim lead at halftime, 13-7. Rodgers and Prescott both come alive in the second half, trading touchdowns. As the end of the game looms closer, the Cowboys tie it up on a Dan Bailey 46-yard field goal, 27-27. With 1 minute left and no timeouts, Rodgers leads the Packers down the field, setting up Crosby for a game winning field goal attempt from 53 yards out. He nails it. Packers win, 30-27.

The Divisional Round of the playoffs is nearly upon us. Soon we will know which teams will be represented in the Conference Championships. I mean, I know it will be the Falcons, Patriots, Steelers, and Packers, but I guess we still have to go through the formality of actually playing the games. Enjoy Week 2 of the playoffs. I’ll be back to wrap it all up next week.

2017 Wild Card Weekend Recap

Four games. Four blowouts. For the most part, last weekend’s slate of games were largely uninteresting. Each game had its moment where you thought the underdog was only a couple of big plays away from making things interesting, but those big plays never came. All the home teams advanced. All the favorites won. Every division is down to their final representative. Now, things begin to heat up, as the final eight teams battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy. As for my playoff predictions, I got off to a rough start to 2017. I’m 3-1 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) after the first weekend. Quite mediocre.

Houston Texans (9-7) defeat Oakland Raiders (12-4), 27-14

Well, it looks like I let my bias get in the way of this prediction. I was clearly reading too much Raider propaganda before this game, as all the hopeful Raider analysts were praising Connor Cook for his surprising amount of maturity and skill for a rookie. None of that showed, as Cook finished 18-45 for 161 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Those numbers are just horrific. The value of Carr has never been so clear for the Raiders. However, you have to give some of the credit to the Texan defense. Jadaveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus were unbelievable. The two of them, along with the rest of the Texan defense were making Cook’s day incredibly difficult, applying pressure and making big plays. Though it was never a fair fight, as the Raider offensive line was without its star LT Donald Penn, who had to sit out with a knee injury for the first time in 155 games.

My prediction of a 1 point Raider victory may not have been so awful had the Raiders, who had had the best turnover margin in the league during the regular season (+16), had not finished with a turnover differential of -3. Turnovers set up the Texan offense with great field position all day. Capitalizing on turnovers, Osweiler and the offense had to do very little to score points and keep the game out of reach. The run game was also great for Houston, as they finished with 123 yards rushing, to match their pedestrian 168 yards through the air. The Texan offensive line outplayed the Raider defensive line as well, winning the ground game and not allowing a sack. The 27-14 scoreline was probably a little generous to the Raiders, who never had a chance after halftime. Going into this game, Houston knew they had a great opportunity to win a playoff game, as they had been an impressive 7-1 at home during the regular season. With the help of the home crowd, the Texans were able to take care of business, knocking out the Raiders in dominating fashion.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) defeat Detroit Lions (9-7), 26-6

I predicted half of this game perfectly, as the Seahawks scored exactly 26 points. Unfortunately for my prediction, Detroit did not score exactly 23 points. It was a classic game for Seattle, playing tough, aggressive defense, and doing just enough on offense to secure a win. This game was tight until the fourth quarter, but it always seemed like Seattle had things under control, as their defense was giving Stafford and the rest of the Lion offense no chance to succeed. Wilson was his usual efficient and mistake-free self, going 23-30 for 224 yards and 2 TDs, while Stafford was mediocre with only 205 yards passing. The Lions failed to find the endzone, and Rawls had a phenomenal game, rushing for 161 yards.

Detroit fans will bemoan some of the more blatant missed calls, such as the clear facemask on Richardson’s phenomenal, first half, 4th & Goal touchdown catch. However, this Seattle team was simply never going to yield a score to the Lions. The game was certainly closer than the final score indicated, but Detroit was always outmatched by the Seahawks, as both the defense and Rawls had phenomenal days. While their defense and rushing game held firm, Richardson was able to make some big plays on the receiving end, helping Seattle secure a trip to Atlanta, which will be a rematch of a Week 7 contest that the Seahawks won, 26-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) defeat Miami Dolphins (10-6), 30-12

Much of my prediction for this game was incredibly accurate. The following table shows you just how smart I am:

Prediction	Actual Result
“The Steelers come storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.”	The Steelers came storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.
“The Steelers continue to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 23-7 lead.”	The Steelers continued to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 20-6 lead.
“Steelers win, 30-21.”	Steelers won, 30-12

Flip that 21 around, and suddenly I am a genius (I mean, I’m a genius anyways, but you get the point). Once again, I predicted the final score for the winning team perfectly. As far as the game went, Antonio Brown came out of the gates looking like the best receiver in the NFL. Two short passes plus lots of yards after the catch, resulted in over 100 yards and two TDs within the first nine minutes of the game for Brown. Once the Steelers went up 14-0, Le’Veon Bell took over, grinding away on the ground, making it incredibly difficult for Miami to mount any sort of comeback. While the Steeler running game was strong, what made things more difficult for Miami was the three turnovers that Moore committed, especially since all three came on consecutive drives during the middle of the game. Other than the turnovers, Moore had an incredibly good game, going 29 of 36 for 289 yards. Unfortunately, both of Moore’s fumbles occurred on Pittsburgh’s side of the field, coming at incredibly inopportune times when Miami looked poise to score points.

The Dolphins scored a late touchdown to make the score look a little more respectable, but they were never truly in it after the Steelers’ offensive barrage in the first half. While the final score looked good for Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger and the Steelers have to be concerned about the turnovers they committed, especially as they look forward to their next game against Kansas City. Roethlisberger only threw two picks, but that would be too many against a Chiefs team that is great at capitalizing on opponent mistakes and holding onto the ball. Even though the Steelers are currently the hottest team in the NFL, riding the longest win streak in the league (eight games), the Chiefs are certainly good enough to end that streak, especially in the hostile environment of Arrowhead.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) defeat New York Giants (11-5), 38-13.

The final game of the weekend was my first correct prediction ATS of the playoffs. How exciting! Not to sound like a broken record, but this game was a lot closer than the score might indicate. The Giants were competitive deep into this game, until Green Bay came up with some timely big plays and turnovers, including Clay Matthews’ dope single-handed-strip-sack-fumble-recovery. It looked like Green Bay would only be up by a single point heading into halftime, until Rodgers completed another hail mary pass at the very end of the first half. Rodgers is quickly becoming a hail mary expert. The skills required to execute a good hail mary match up perfectly with Rodgers’ skillset, as his elusiveness allows his receivers enough time to get down the field, and his arm strength allows him to throw the ball 65+ yards through the air. Besides the hail mary, Rodgers’ elusiveness was on display all game, showing incredible footwork and awareness in the pocket, while escaping pass rushers and finding open receivers downfield. Meanwhile, the Giants were plagued by dropped passes, which included two potential touchdown catches that Beckham and Shepherd could not come down with on the first drive of the game.

Though the game was close throughout the first half, the Packers were finally able to put it away towards the end of the third quarter, on their way to a 38-13 rout. Even without Jordy Nelson for a majority of the contest, Rodgers finished with a phenomenal stat line: 362 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs. Cobb picked up the slack during Nelson’s absence, racking up 115 receiving yards and 3 TDs. While Cobb had a great game (certainly buoyed by the hail mary catch), one could argue that Davante Adams performed even better game than Cobb, reeling in 8 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD. If there were any concerns for the Packers after such a great performance, one could point out that Green Bay was once again unable to get the running game going, as Montgomery and Michael both put up pedestrian rushing numbers, which was disappointing for a team that was in the lead for most of the game. However, even without a running game, the Packers still looked like an incredibly strong side. Nearly as hot as the Steelers, this win marks Green Bay’s seventh consecutive victory. As the Packers prepare for another tilt with a tough NFC East foe, Green Bay must feel confident about their chances of returning to the Super Bowl, even after just one postseason game.

Four games down, seven to go. We are less than a month away from the Super Bowl now. Predictions for the Divisional Round will be coming soon, so stay tuned for more Brosh Knows Football!

Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Weekend 2017

The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time in 14 years, I have an actual interest in the outcome of a game. The Raiders are back. Unfortunately, they are hobbled because of Carr’s broken fibula. Still, no matter how bleak a team’s chances may look, there is always that slight chance that that gives fans hope. That slight chance that your team can go on a run and make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Hope has gotten many fans this far. Now, hope is all I’ve got.

Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Texans -3.5)

The Raiders exceeded all expectations this season. Though they never looked dominant - other than an impressive showing on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos and a decisive win against the aimless Jaguars - they were impressive in their ability to close out tough games and beat good opponents. It was turning into an all time great season for the Silver and Black, and then, with less than five quarters separating Carr and the Raiders from hosting a playoff game, the unthinkable happened. Carr broke his leg, sucking the life out of the entire Raider team. Suddenly, Super Bowl aspirations turned to prayers, as Oakland has simply not been the same without Carr behind center. Is Carr the best quarterback in the league? No. Is he the most valuable though? Possibly. Carr has become the heartbeat of the Raiders. Without him, Oakland nearly blew a 19 point 4th quarter lead against the Colts. Obviously the offense is worse off without him, but the defense and special teams don’t play with the same energy when he is not healthy as well. In Week 17, when things seemed dire already, Matt McGloin went down with a shoulder injury. Now, in his first career start, Connor Cook will be tasked with leading the Raiders to victory in the playoffs. I have faith in Cook. He didn’t look rattled by the mighty Denver defense in Week 17, but the playoffs are a whole new challenge. On Saturday, we will find out whether or not the moment is too big for him. What Oakland needs now is a motivational boost. Only time will tell if they are able to find it before kickoff.

On the other side of the ball, Houston is the clear cut weakest division champion in the NFL (and possibly the weakest team in the playoffs). The Texans have their own questions surrounding their quarterback. Osweiler was benched earlier in the season for poor play. Now, due to the concussion to Tom Savage, Osweiler will retake his starting spot under center in the Wild Card Round on Saturday. The Raiders have already faced off against Osweiler and the Texans in Mexico City this season. That game was an ugly slugfest that eventually saw the Raiders coming out victorious, 27-20. However, that game really could have gone either way. The Texans defense is very solid, and if they play to their ability, they should be able to rock Oakland’s rookie signal-caller. If Houston’s defensive line can outplay the juggernaut that is the Oakland offensive line, Houston should be able to win this one handedly.

Prediction: This game starts out just as ugly as expected with four turnovers in the first half, as Houston goes into the break with a narrow 6-3 lead. After halftime, both offenses look better, as both teams are able to find the endzone in the third quarter. With five minutes remaining, Connor Cook leads the Raiders down the field, giving them the lead 17-16, with less than two minutes to play. Reggie Nelson intercepts Osweiller on the ensuing possession, sealing the game. Raiders win, 17-16.

Detroit Lions (9-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Seahawks -8.0)

Seattle drew the weakest team in the NFC in the Wild Card Round (which is fair considering they are the 3 seed). Seattle has been great at home this year, going 7-1, and the betting line clearly values that information, as Seattle are big favorites in this game. On the flip side,Seattle has had immense trouble succeeding on the road this season. They will have to turn that bad form around if they hope to make it past the Divisional Round (assuming they make it past the Lions first). This game is certainly not a lock, as Seattle’s defense has been far less feared since the injury to Earl Thomas. However, Stafford has not looked the same since he injured a finger on his throwing hand. Even before the injury, the Lion offense has not been nearly as potent as we are used to. Detroit ranked 21st in yards per game this season, and 30th in rush yards per game. The defense was similarly mediocre, ranking around the middle of the league in all major categories. Based on the abilities of both of these teams, I imagine it will be the Lion defense that will have to step up for Detroit if they hope to escape Seattle with a victory. Russell Wilson has been terribly inconsistent all season, and if they can take advantage of his poor play, they may be able to keep this game close. Both teams have not been playing at their top capacity lately. I could definitely see this one going either way. Still, if I know one thing, it is that Seattle is always tough to beat at home, especially in the playoffs...

Prediction: This game is back and forth from the beginning, as Seattle keeps a one score lead for most of the game. Heading into the fourth quarter, Detroit trails by seven. The Lions score a touchdown on their first drive of the quarter, tying the game at 23. With time running out in the fourth quarter, Wilson leads the Seattle offense down the field, setting up Hauschka for a game-winning 36 yard field goal. He misses. In overtime, Detroit gets the ball first, but Stafford immediately throws a pick to Richard Sherman. Again Hauschka lines up for a 36 yard field goal. This time, he nails it. Seahawks win, 26-23.

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Steelers -10.0)

Miami features the third AFC playoff team that will be relying on a quarterback who is making his first career playoff start. Matt Moore has looked comfortable as the starter for the Dolphins since the injury to Tannehill, especially when he is making throws to Jarvis Landry. Alongside Devante Parker, the Dolphins have a very good tandem at wide receiver that complements the prolific talents of Jay Ajayi quite well. Miami has been great on the ground, but that has also been where they have been gashed on defense all season. The Steelers are heavy favorites heading into this game, but it should be noted that Miami was able to defeat Pittsburgh back in Week 6, 30-15. Of course, that game was in Miami, when the Dolphins still had Ryan Tannehill available.

The Steelers are an obvious offensive juggernaut, with the three-headed monster of Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger has plenty of playoff experience, and Antonio Brown may be the most talented player in the league. Pittsburgh seemed destined for failure back in Weeks 6-10, when they were in the midst of a four game losing streak. However, that seems like ages ago now, as the Steelers are currently the hottest team in the NFL, riding a seven game winning streak into the playoffs. It seems as though this game may come down to Pittsburgh’s ability to stop Jay Ajayi. They weren’t able to stop him from eclipsing 200 yards rushing in their first meeting...

Prediction: The Steelers come storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead. The Steelers continue to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 23-7 lead. Things settle down after that, as Miami begins to creep back into the game. Moore leads the Dolphins on back to back scoring drives in the second half, making it 23-21. However, on Miami’s next possession, Ajayi fumbles the ball, and James Harrison returns it for a score. Steelers win, 30-21.

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Packers -5.0)

This should be the best game of the Wild Card Round. The Packers head into the playoffs riding a six game winning streak. The running game has come together, the defense is playing competently, and Rodgers is starting to look more like his former MVP self, just at the right time. Similarly to the Steelers, the Packers big winning streak was preceded by a four game losing streak that had seemingly doomed their season. The Packer winning streak included impressive thrashings of the Eagles and Seahawks. If that’s the type of team we see in the playoffs, the Packers may end up being serious Super Bowl contenders. Of course, it only takes one game to ruin a winning streak…

Enter the Giants. This is the best Giants team we have seen in some time. New York was able to defeat mighty Dallas twice this season. Other than Eagles’ meaningless Week 17 tilt with the Cowboys, no other team was even able to defeat Dallas once. Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. are wreaking havoc on opposing secondaries, the defensive line is applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks (even without their star defensive end, Jason Pierre-Paul), and Eli looks poised to make a run for a third Super Bowl. At their best, the Giants are a top team that can play with anyone in the NFL. Manning and Rodgers both have a wealth of playoff experience, so you know they will step up in the big game. I expect this game to come down to whether or not the Giants can put pressure on Rodgers, and how well Green Bay can contain OBJ and the rest of New York’s receiving core. It should be a great last game to the playoff weekend.

Prediction: This one is back and forth all game, with Green Bay taking a slim 14-13 lead into the half. The Giants are the hotter team out of halftime, scoring on both of their opening possessions, as they take and extend their first lead of the game, 23-14. However, Rodgers and the Packers come storming back and regain the lead off a big Montgomery rushing touchdown, 24-23. Green Bay has the ball late in the fourth quarter, when Rodgers finds Jordy Nelson for a 55 yard touchdown to ice it. Packers win 31-23.

There you have it. Four games. Four flawless predictions. Sorry about all the spoilers, but you knew what you were getting yourself into when you started reading this blog. Enjoy the first weekend of playoff action, and Go Raiders!