I'm back! I'm sure my
many (few) readers of my blog have been anxiously (indifferently)
waiting for me to come out with my NFL regular season predictions.
Well, here they are! 32
teams. 32 airtight, unbiased, unadulterated opinions. I always
enjoy looking at every team and trying to determine where they all
stack up against each other, mainly because it is an unreasonable
task for someone who does not work as a sports writer. My formula is
somewhat simple; it has to be when you predict the record of every
single team in the NFL. So naturally, I am going to overlook many
factors. Some of these factors include: strength of schedule (which
are hard to predict because they are based on the future strength of
a team's schedule), future injuries (which are hard to predict
because they happen in the future), and breakout stars (which are
hard to predict because I am not an NFL scout). This is obviously
not an all-inclusive list. However, the entertainment comes from
making predictions and then looking back on the season in 17 weeks to
see how my opinions of all 32 teams have changed over the course of
one NFL season. So, let's cherish the unpredictability of the season
that is ahead of us.
It is truly the best time
of the year. The beginning of the NFL season provides every
franchise with a clean slate, an undefeated record. Once again, the
sorry fans of teams like the Raiders, Browns, and Jaguars rejoice, as
a season of limitless possibilities is about to begin. I, like so
many other fans, am currently blinded by that beautiful “0” in
the loss column. It is truly magnificent. That “0” represents
the limitless potential of every franchise in the NFL. So, who will
it be this year? For now, the Seahawks are the champions of the NFL,
until someone can prove otherwise. And, while there is only one true
mark of success in the NFL season – that being the Lombardi Trophy
– there are many unexpected story lines still yet to unfold. Who
will take the fall from grace this year, like last year's Falcons and
Texans? Which team will take a surprise turn towards relevance, like
last year's Panthers? Will the Brady-led Patriots ever relinquish
the NFC East crown? Will the NFC South continue its unpredictable
trends? Will big contract quarterbacks prove their worth? How many
Raider games will I go to this year? These are all the questions
that we, as NFL fans, will all be mulling over this season.
So, I have returned from
my off-season slumber with a vigor and excitement of what is to come.
With a mere 17 weeks of regular season football left to play, I will
try to decipher what is sure to happen this season. I have done my
best to analyze the teams, evaluate the off-season, look over
schedules, and not watch a single preseason game. I feel prepared to
bare the fruits of my labor, an unprecedented knowledge of what is
sure to happen in an unpredictable NFL world. Anyways, let's get
right into it. We have 32 teams to dissect. Playoff teams are shown
in bold. Let's start with the AFC.
AFC West
Broncos:
12-4
No surprises here. Denver is easily the team to beat in the West and
possibly the NFL (calm down Seattle fans). Manning still has the
best weapons in the NFL and the defense acquired some guy named Talib
over the off-season The only question you might be asking is, “Why
only 12 wins?” Well, the AFC West has a tough schedule this year,
with match ups against the NFC West and AFC East. The Broncos have a
tough road ahead of them, but expect Denver to be vying for homefield
advantage throughout the playoffs towards the end of the season.
Chargers: 8-8
Well played, San Diego. Last year, I declared that only a complete
overhaul would make the Chargers a playoff team again. Obviously, I
was wrong. Rivers had a career year, playing great while on a team
that I still think had no business being in the playoffs. Charger
fans will be hoping that Flowers provides a solid improvement to
their secondary, but I don't know if San Diego is strong enough to
play with the best teams this year. The Chargers play everyone
tough, but a difficult schedule and a team that failed to make
significant improvements has me predicting a mediocre, playoff-less
season. Prove me wrong again, San Diego. Prove me wrong again.
Chiefs: 6-10
I will admit that I am very stubborn when it comes to my predictions.
I refuse to accept the Chiefs as a top team in the NFL. I predicted
them at 6-10 last year, and I am predicting them there again. The
Chiefs have only gotten worse this off-season. It will be interesting
to see how they fair against the powerhouse that is the NFC West this
year. I know I have mentioned this stat before, but the Chiefs won
only one game against an above .500 team last year, the Eagles (and
this was when Vick was still the starter). Jamaal Charles is a great
all-purpose back, but is the rest of the team good enough to make
this Kansas City team a playoff squad? I am one of many people that
do not believe in the ability of Alex Smith as a top NFL quarterback.
I will admit, Smith did prove his potential against the Colts in the
wild card round of the playoffs last year (even though they lost),
but one game does not prove a player's worth. A great quarterback is one
that is great on a consistent basis. Let's see if Kansas City can
prove their worth again this year.
Raiders: 5-11
That's right! I have incredibly high hopes for my Raiders this year!
FIVE WINS! A one win improvement from last year. I know what
you're thinking, “Adam, are you insane? That would be a MONUMENTAL
improvement from last year!” Well, call me an optimist, but I even
considered predicting 6 wins for the Silver and Black. Anyways, the
Raiders added “veteran leadership” to the team this year, which
is slang for, “old, washed-up players that happened to play for a
Super Bowl Champion once upon a time.” Meanwhile, MJD was added to
the Raider's list of “old running backs that spend most of their
time injured.” I was hoping that Schaub would be able to take over
for at least a year, but I just found out that Derek Carr has been
named the starter. Even though I only viewed Schaub as a temporary
place-holder, I didn't want the Raiders to be forced to send in Derek
Carr right away. I was hoping the Raiders could start building a
respectable team before Derek Carr tried to be Oakland's savior.
Anyways, who knows what the Silver and Black are in for now? I will
consider this season a success if the Raiders do not fire head coach
Dennis Allen. Go Raiders.
AFC
North
Steelers:
10-6
Last year, the Steelers finished as one of the hottest teams in the
league. After starting 0-4, the Steelers managed to finish at 8-8,
thanks to winning their last three games in a row. And, if it
weren't for a missed Ryan Succop field goal in Week 17, they would
have been in the playoffs. This prediction largely comes from the
fact that I don't think the rest of the teams in this division have
done enough to establish themselves as the top team in the AFC North.
The Steelers are a consistently strong side, and I expect them to
take advantage of a division that has no clear favorite to win the
division crown. The loss of Emmanuel Sanders definitely hurts, but
the Steelers still have a strong receiving core for Big Ben to throw
to, with a workhorse in Le'Veon Bell in the backfield. The AFC North
will be one of the top divisions once again this year, even though
they might not have one of the top 6 or 7 teams in the league.
Bengals:
9-7
Is this team really as good as last year would have suggested? I was
a believer of the Bengals at the beginning and end of the regular
season last year, but an ugly loss to the San Diego Chargers in the
wild card round of the playoffs had me second guessing their ability.
Andy Dalton just got a big contract extension, and it will be
interesting to see just how much talent the Bengals had to sacrifice
on the rest of their roster for Dalton's new cap hit. The Bengals
should still be a tough defense to break down, but is the A.J. Green
show going to be enough to keep this offense moving up and down the
field? Only time will tell. Right now I have them sneaking into the
playoffs, as the 6th seed. I expect this division to be
decided on the final week of the regular season.
Ravens: 8-8
Different year. Same prediction. The Ravens will serve as my
benchmark for mediocrity once again this year. I expect the Ravens
to be a tough game for just about any team, but I think the playoffs
are bit out of reach for the Flacco-led side. The AFC North is a
tough division top to bottom, and all of Baltimore's divisional games
should be a tough test. Fortunately for the Ravens and the rest of
the AFC North, they are matched up against the AFC South this year,
perhaps the weakest division in the NFL right now. However, I don't
see Baltimore having quite enough to make a significant impact on the
season. Flacco is a middle tier quarterback who commands a middle
tier team. 8-8 seems just right.
Browns: 5-11
I
think the Browns took a step backwards this year. Even though I
predict them to finish with one more win than last year, I am really
referring to the fact that this was a team on the rise. Now, I see
them as a team that is still very far from challenging for a playoff
spot. This prediction would have been different had the Browns not
fired Rob Chudzinski at the end of last season. This has nothing to do with what I think
of Chudzinski or Mike Pettine as head coaches. Honestly, I know very
little about their coaching ability. However, I am a firm believer
in the value of coaching consistency. Chudzinski had less than a
year with the team before he was let go. And, in my opinion, he was
doing a great job, dealing with quarterback injuries and playing in
one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. One of my worries for
Cleveland is that Hoyer might not have a long enough leash because of
the guy that is sitting right behind him on the depth chart (you may
have heard of him). If the Browns lose their first few games, the
fans may start calling for a QB switch, which is never good for a
team that is already set to have a pretty tough season.
AFC
South
Colts:
12-4
Twelve wins might
seem like a bold prediction for the Colts, but this may be the
weakest division in the NFL. I guess you never know exactly what
you're going to get each NFL season, but I expect this division to be
dominated by the Colts. The Titans will probably be Indianapolis's
toughest intra-divisional threat, but I don't think Tennessee has the
ability to truly challenge for the division crown. Meanwhile, the
Texans and Jaguars are still reeling from awful seasons. While the
future may show promise for this division, 2014 does not. The Colts
have a somewhat tough schedule outside of their division, but I don't
think that should stop them from racking up twelve wins. I would be
very surprised if the Colts did not win at least five games in their
division this year.
Titans:
9-7
I actually like the
Titans this year. Tennessee put up seven wins last year, largely
with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Locker has some good potential, and
the tandem of Greene and Sankey in the backfield is solid. Their
receiving attack is nothing to scoff at either. If you factor in
their likelihood of taking four games from the Texans and Jaguars,
nine wins does not seem that unreasonable. The only question that
remains is whether or not that will be enough to propel the Titans
into the playoffs.
Texans: 6-10
This team ran into
the perfect storm last year, witnessing a historically poor season
from their usual rock of a quarterback, followed by a total team
collapse. I mean, losing fourteen games in a row can do a number on
the psyche of a team, but I think Houston will be much better this
season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer at the quarterback
position, but some stability at quarterback is always a good thing,
and that is what Fitzpatrick offers. For a team that has a very good
defense, any sort of offenseive production should result in at least
a little bit of a turnaround this season. Clowney, Watt, Cushing,
and Joseph are still all big names on defense. Expect a different
Houston team this season.
Jaguars: 4-12
There is not much to
say about the Jaguars. They are stuck in a bit of a rut as a
franchise, and it seems that they are doing their best to plan for
the future with Blake Bortles. The Jacksonville front office was
obviously very high on Bortles. Maybe they saw something in the
former UCF player that made them believe that he was the answer they
were looking for. However, as it pertains to this season, Bortles is
not the answer. Currently, we are not expected to see him start this
year. For now, I expect to see the Jaguars at the foot of the AFC
South. But who knows, maybe the exciting tandem of Bortles and
Shorts will be something we will be hearing a lot about in the
not-so-distant future.
AFC
East
Patriots:
12-4
In a league of so
much parity, there are few things so consistent as the Patriots'
dominance of the AFC East. Brady may be getting older, but he is
still finding ways to stay at the top of his game. The Jets, Bills,
and Dolphins may scuffle for that wild card spot, but one thing is
for sure, the Patriots rule the AFC East. Now, Brady just needs a
reliable defense and a healthy receiving core, and this team has the
potential to get back to their glory days of football in New England.
Bills: 8-8
Other than the
Patriots at the top, I find this division harder to predict than
most. I would have some difficulty explaining to you why I placed
the Bills here. Basically, it comes down to the fact that Buffalo
won six games last year, and I think they are a little better this
year. Buffalo was willing to make the necessary moves during the
draft to get Sammy Watkins. While that may not have necessarily been
a great decision, it demonstrates the characteristics of a franchise
willing to make the risky moves to get better. If Watkins and Manuel
mesh, the Buffalo offense could be good. It should be interesting.
Jets: 7-9
The Jets definitely
have the potential to put together a winning season (they finished
8-8 last season), but I don't think it will happen this year.
Similar to EJ Manuel, it will be interesting to see how Geno Smith
performs during his sophomore season at the helm for the Jets. I
don't want to say it is directly related, but it seems that the Jets
continue to get better as Rex Ryan gets quieter and quieter. The
Jets might not make the playoffs, but I think they will at least be
in the wild card hunt for most of the season.
Dolphins: 5-11
I have difficulty
finding the upside for the Dolphins right now. Tannehill has
basically shown that he will never be a top tier quarterback. He has
been given plenty of time to prove himself as a starting quarterback,
but he has failed to produce big time numbners in the role. It seems
as though Miami will be left to struggle with the rest of the
mediocre teams around them in NFL purgatory. Unfortunately, the
Dolphins appear to be the only team moving backwards in this
division, as they are a team that seems to be lacking clear
potential.
Now, let's move onto
the NFC, starting with the NFC West.
NFC
West
Seahawks:
12-4
No surprises here,
and no reason to over think this. The Seahawks are the best team in
the division, and they are the team to beat in the NFL. So, instead
of looking at their obvious strengths, let's look at their
weaknesses. First of all, great success often comes with a price,
that price being the cost of keeping your top players to stick
around. The Seahawks have done a good job of mitigating these costs,
but still, with less money to go around this year, the Seahawks have
taken a small step backwards. Also, their workhorse, Marshawn Lynch
continues to get older and take more hits. Unless you are
superhuman, like Adrian Peterson, running backs like Lynch generally
have a set expiration date for their NFL career, and Lynch's is
getting close. Unfortunately, this is a team that does not have a
very strong passing attack to make up for a potential lapse in the
running game. The Seahawks should still be considered the favorites
to win it all, but they will not be as unstoppable as they were last
year.
49ers:
10-6
This season is
slowly looking tougher and tougher for San Francisco. A lengthy
suspension to Aldon Smith definitely hurts the team. Additionally,
the Niners have many of the same exact problems as the Seahawks,
having to give players bigger contracts and dealing with an aging
running back. However, the advantage that the Niners have over the
Seahawks is a superior passing attack. It will be interesting to see
how much work Carlos Hyde gets. If I'm calling the shots in San
Francisco, I'm probably going to want to use both backs, in order to
conserve Gore's legs as much as I can. The NFC West was the top
division last year, and I expect them to be the top division again
this year. We will have to see if the difficulty of playing in the
NFC West ends up preventing one of the NFC West's three playoff
caliber teams from making the playoffs.
Cardinals:
10-6
The Cardinals
finished up last season with an impressive win in Seattle, followed
by a tough loss to the 49ers. In the super-powered NFC West, Arizona
almost found a way to sneak into the playoffs. The Cardinals are
just as good, if not better this season. Unfortunately, Arizona has
to find a way to win now, as their veteran quarterback, Carson Palmer
continues to get closer to the end of his career. Ellington has
proven his worth during the off-season, and he is being rewarded with
the lead role in the Arizona backfield. The staunch Arizona defense
completes an incredible trio of defenses to be feared in this
division. I think the Cardinals are good enough to finish ahead of
the Niners this season, but I wasn't brave enough to make that
prediction.
Rams: 3-13
Shaun Hill is in for
a nightmare in the NFC West this season. The injury to Sam Bradford
immediately put the Rams in a deep hole. Last year, I could have
argued that the Rams were good enough to win a few of the weaker
divisions in the NFL, but the NFC West was just too good all around.
Even though they finished last in the division at 7-9, they impressed
with wins over the Cardinals, Colts, Saints, and Bears. This year,
it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Rams are relevant in this
division at all. I do not expect St. Louis to win more than one
divisional game during the regular season. Maybe the Rams should
just pack it in early this season, as the road ahead is very
unforgiving.
NFC
North
Packers:
11-5
Will anyone be able
to unseed the Packers this year? The Lions came close last year, but
completely fell apart at the end of the season. The Bears were also
close, and came within one play from taking the crown from the Pack.
However, as long as Rodgers is healthy, it will be difficult to stop
the Green Bay Packers. There are no easy games in the NFC North, but
I think the Packers have enough to once again win the division. Now,
whether or not they can get past that wild card round of the playoffs
is another story. Fans in Green Bay will not be satisfied with just
making the playoffs this season, and I don't think the players will
either.
Lions: 9-7
Detroit is a team
with plenty of potential. They have a young quality quarterback,
arguably the most talented player in the NFL, and a defense that can
push you around. Detroit's offense is full of weapons at Stafford's
disposal. If the Lions are able to maximize the potential of their
roster, they should be a solid playoff contender. However, the NFC
will have many teams vying for those wild card spots, and I am not
sure there is enough space in the post-season for the Lions. Their
easiest route into the playoffs might be by way of the NFC North
crown.
Bears: 9-7
I have never been a
fan of Jay Cutler. When Josh McCown came in and outperformed Cutler
last season, I was obviously even less impressed with Cutler. Either
way, the Bears have a great offense. Alshon Jeffrey had his coming
out party last season, completing a receiving tandem that will give
NFL secondaries nightmares. Both Jeffrey and Marshall define the,
“I'm always open” receiver. They are jump ball specialists, able
to pull down a bad pass when in tight coverage (Brett Favre would
have loved these guys). The Bears are definitely a contender to win
the NFC North; however, I see the Packers (and maybe even the Lions)
as a step ahead of Chicago.
Vikings: 4-12
Minnesota will have
a tough time this year. Settling on Matt Cassel at quarterback is an
ominous sign of things to come. Adrian Peterson may be one of the
greatest players to ever play the game, but the run game is only one
aspect of the Vikings' offense, in a league that is moving more and
more towards the passing game every season. Every year, passing gets
easier in the NFL, with multiple quarterbacks setting new record
passing marks all the time. A run game is valuable, but you cannot
rely on it in a league that is just so dominated by the pass.
NFC
South
Falcons:
10-6
If I make one giant
mistake in my predictions, let it be here in the NFC South. The NFC
South is consistently the most inconsistent division. More teams
have gone from worst to first in this division than any other in the
current NFL format. Each team has won the division exactly three
times. I love this division. So, that is why the Falcons will win
the NFC South. I expect Matt Ryan, along with Julio Jones and Roddy
White to be back to their old ways of tearing up defenses through the
air. And you have to love Jake Matthews protecting Ryan's blindside
now. Last year was a great example of what can happen when things go
bad for any team in the NFL. However, I expect the Falcons to bounce
back with an NFC South crown.
Panthers: 9-7
The Panthers will
fall just short of the playoffs this year. Carolina looked like one
of the best teams in the NFL for much of last season, but they did
not back it up with a strong off-season The Panthers' defense is
still strong, but how are they going to score points? Cam Newton can
go ahead and do his best superman impression, but I am not sure the
Panthers have the offensive weapons required to make the playoffs.
Saints: 9-7
The Saints continue
to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL; however, I predict
that they will fall just short of the playoffs this year. The NFC is
loaded with talented teams, and I predict that the Saints will be one
of the unfortunate talented teams to miss out on the playoffs this
year. At the same time, the Saints have the potential to run away
with the division. The NFC South is tough to foretell this year (and
every year), but I am sticking with my predictions.
Buccaneers: 5-11
The Buccaneers have
definitely gotten better since last year, but I don't think that
makes them a playoff contender. You never know what's going to
happen in the NFC South, but I don't think Josh McCown is the savior
that the Bucs are looking for. McCown impressed in Chicago last
year; however, he has been a perennial backup his entire career.
Elite quarterbacks do not blossom overnight, and with the weapons he
had in Chicago, his success was not completely unbelievable. Either
way, the Bucs took a step forward this off-season Will it be enough
to take them out of last place in a deep NFC South? I don't think
so.
NFC
East
Cowboys:
9-7
As long as it does
not come down to week 17, the Cowboys are my pick to win the
division. Romo has had some unlucky moments in his career, but he is
definitely good enough to lead this team to the playoffs. And after
looking at the rosters in this division, I think the Cowboys have the
most talent. Romo, Bryant, and Murray lead a strong offensive unit,
and I expect them to lead Dallas to the division crown.
Eagles: 8-8
Give me one more
year of good quarterbacking before I get on the Foles bandwagon.
Foles had a great season, and with a strong core of receivers
(including McCoy out of the backfield), you would expect that he puts
together another solid year. However, we are yet to see how the loss
of the Eagles' top receiver, Desean Jackson affects the Philadelphia
offense. The Eagles will field a tough squad this year, but I am not
totally sold on Philadelphia. I think Dallas will finish just ahead
of them for the top spot in the NFC East.
Washington: 6-10
Desean Jackson adds
a dynamic play-maker to the Washington roster, but that won't matter
if RG III does not step up this season. Griffin needs to stay
healthy for Washington to succeed. Putting Robert Griffin III on the
field at 90% health is not good enough to succeed in the NFL.
Washington had a lot of improvements to make over the off-season, and
they definitely covered some of them. The potential is there for
Washington, but I don't expect them to have enough to seriously
compete for a playoff spot in 2014.
Giants: 6-10
Am I being too hard
on the Giants? Possibly. But give me a compelling argument why the
Giants did not get worse over the off-season. Their receiving core
is weaker. Their backfield is weaker. And it feels like a long time
ago since the Giants had one of the most feared pass rushes in the
NFL. Their defense has been someone stagnant for a few years now,
and I don't think weakening Eli Manning's roster is going to help him
bounce back from one of the worse statistical years of his career.
Bonus
Predictions:
MVP:
Peyton
Manning
The Broncos got
better this year, and so did Peyton's weapons. Welker may be
injured, but the real threats on offense are going to be Thomas,
Thomas, and Sanders. Peyton will be just as statistically dominant
this year as he was last year. How old is he again?
Super
Bowl:
This is a tough one
to predict. The Broncos and Seahawks still appear to be the two best
teams in the league, but there are lots of possible contenders to
make a Super Bowl appearance this year. Who to choose, who to
choose...
Broncos defeat
the Packers 31-24. In an unbelievable coincidence, the Broncos
defeat the Packers by the same exact score as the 1998 Super Bowl,
which featured the same two teams.
Super Bowl XXXII was
the first Super Bowl I ever remember watching, and I had no idea what
was going on. All I remember is that John Elway and Brett Favre were
playing. Hopefully, when the Broncos and Packers play in the
upcoming Super Bowl XLIX, I will remember it a little better.
Well, there it is.
32 predictions. 32 flawless analyses. Sorry if I ruined the outcome
of the season for you. Fortunately, if you are a blind fanatic like
me, it won't matter. Even though I already know that the Raiders
will finish 5-11, I cannot wait for the season to start. Because,
until Sunday, the Raiders will be undefeated! Their potential is
limitless! The Super Bowl is so close, I can almost taste it!
Nothing can stop the Silver and Black! Go Raiders!
