Friday, February 6, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Recap

Wow.  What a game.  This was truly one of the most exciting Super Bowls in recent memory.  I would like to say that I generally like to wait a bit before I send out my recap, so that I can digest the game.  However, I really just get lazy, especially without the time crunch of the next playoff game.  However, I like to stick to my "better late than never" mantra.  So, for the people that were anxiously waiting for my Super Bowl XLIX recap (people read this blog?), here it is.  


New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24

Similar to the NFC Championship game, Seattle started off slow, as New England dominated the first half.  An ill-advised interception by Tom Brady, deep in Seattle territory, kept the Seahawks in the game.  Still, the Patriots were moving the ball with ease, while the Seahawks struggled.  Other than some big plays from previous no-name Chris Matthews, Seattle had a tough time moving the ball.  However, with the game seemingly one-sided, Seattle was somehow able to head into halftime, tied at 14, thanks to some gusty playcall at the end of the half.  Carroll chose to go for the touchdown with 6 seconds left, rather than kick the field goal.  His bold call was a foreshadowing of another bold call that Carroll would make later in the game.
The third quarter was all Seattle, and when the Seahawks took a 24-14 lead, everyone watching the game could sense how close the Seahawks were to repeating as champions.  However, Brady turned it on in the fourth quarter, in a game that would have a significant impact on the eternal "greatest quarterback of all time" debate.  But Seattle would not go down quietly, and thanks to a miracle catch by Jermaine Kearse, the Seahawks were a yard away from back-to-back Super Bowl Championships, with 26 seconds left.  Then, the play happened.  One of the biggest moments in NFL history.  Wilson dropped back to pass, threw to a seemingly open Ricardo Lockette, and for a brief moment, viewers could not see the ball.  But when New England players started jumping up and down, everyone knew that the unthinkable had happened.  Malcolm Butler had made what will forever be the biggest play of his life.  The game was over.  The Patriots had won another Super Bowl.  
So, what to make of this decision to pass the ball?  The immediate reaction by everyone was expected, "Why not give the ball to Beast Mode?  Why would you throw it?!"  So, was it the wrong call?  Sure, the better call there probably would have been to run it.  Was it one of the worst play calls ever?  Of course not.  Passing the ball was a reasonable option that close to the goal line.  The interception made the play seem idiotic, but interceptions are very low risk in that situation.  In the end, it was simply a great play by Butler.  I will admit that coming out with three wide receivers, one yard from the endzone, was strange, but that is very easy to say in retrospect.  Personally, I would have called a bootleg with Russell Wilson or the obvious run play in that situation, but hindsight is 20/20.  Either way, the game came down to one final, exciting moment.  That is all we can really ask for in a Super Bowl, as most fans watching the game do not have much of an emotional investment in either of the Super Bowl teams each year.  

Anyways, it looks like I botched another prediction.  Sure, I had the Patriots by four points (24-20), but the actual score was quite different (28-24).  And sure, I predicted a late, redzone turnover by Seattle on their final drive (fumble by Jermaine Kearse at the 11 yard line), but the mode of turnover and the exact yard line of the turnover were totally wrong (interception by Wilson at the 1 yard line). Maybe I should just give up on this whole prediction business...
The final NFL game of the year brings me to a grand total of 7/11 and 3-8 ATS in the 2015 playoffs, which is pretty mediocre.  Also, I wasn't paying that close attention to my prop bet predictions, but every time I remembered one of my prop bet predictions during the game, it seemed like I was getting it wrong.  So, I won't really investigate that because who cares anyways.  

Another season has come to an end, and the Raiders are nowhere to be found.  One day, they will be back in the playoffs!  Or maybe not.  The Raiders are pretty bad.  Being a fan can be tough sometimes... except for this kid:
 

This kid sucks.  I hope Boston never wins another championship for as long as he lives.  Anyways, time for hibernation.  The 2015 NFL season is a long ways away now.  Things like the draft and free agency are still to come, which are strategically sprinkled throughout the off-season, in order to obtain the optimal ratings boost for their respective networks.  Personally, I can't wait until next season because a certain Raider fan (and his brother) just purchased season tickets.  Go Raiders!

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX: My Predictions

Is it too late to be posting a Super Bowl prediction?  Of course it is.  If you're planning on watching the Super Bowl today, you are probably out getting beer, wings, or chips.  Or, if you're a seasoned professional, you are probably already drinking the beer that you purchased in advance of the big day.  Maybe you are preparing the guacamole now.  Yeah.  Homemade guacamole is the best.  I recommend the Tostitos Scoops.  Whoever invented the scoop-shaped chip is a goddamn genius.  
Anyways, if you have some time between all the the beer, wings, and Super Bowl hype, take a minute to read my predictions, and see what I have to say about the biggest game of the year.



New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Sunday, February 1st, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -1.0)


Seattle is back in the Super Bowl.  It's fitting that the last team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions was the New England Patriots, back in 2005.  So, which team will win the 49th edition of football's biggest game?  The bigger question is, which team should you be rooting against?  The answer is obviously both teams.  On one side, the Patriots have been the face of evil of the NFL for roughly fifteen years now.  On the other hand, Seattle is making quick work to try to become the most obnoxious team in the NFL.  Does anyone want to see Brady win his fourth ring?  Ugh, of course not.  But would you rather see Seattle win back-to-back?  That's a tough question.  Hopefully I will have figured it out by game time.
New England comes into this game playing at the top of their game, having just decimated Indianapolis.  Meanwhile, I think the Raiders could have beaten the Seahawks two weeks ago, based on how poorly Seattle played.  However, the Super Bowl is so often a toss-up.  In a single game, any number of things could happen that could totally change the outcome.  Whichever team finds themselves on the positive side of these plays, will most likely win.  
It will be interesting to see if Seattle's banged-up secondary can handle the New England offense.  Does Seattle have the proper players to stop Gronkowski?  Can Russel Wilson make the big plays that his team will need?  Will Marshawn Lynch run over the Patriot defense?  Will the Patriots win the coin toss?  These are the big question marks going into the big game.  Just how will it all turn out...
Prediction: The Seattle offense falters again, and the Seahawks cannot find a way to score.  Meanwhile, Brady is taking care of business, and New England goes into halftime, leading 17-3.  The Seahawks look much better in the second half, and are revitalized by a Marshawn Lynch touchdown, on their first drive of the half.  Trailing by 4 with 1:46 left in the game, Seattle is in New England territory.  The Seahawks are driving down the field, when Wilson hits Jermaine Kearse with a deep pass.  Kearse is heading for the endzone, when Revis punches the ball out of his arms.  Kearse fumbles the ball on the 11 yard line, and the Patriots recover.  New England wins Super Bowl XLIX, 24-20.  

Last year, I picked the Seahawks to lose, so you think I would have learned my lesson.  However, as Michael Scott from The Office once said, "Fool me once, strike one.  Fool me twice... strike three."  Hopefully this isn't strike three for me.  
Anyways, does anyone really care about my prediction of the actual game?  No!  The prop bets are what the Super Bowl is all about, and there will be plenty of exciting prop bets in play.  Let me lead you to betting glory, and give you my takes on the most exciting bets out there.  

The Coin Toss
Prediction: Heads
I got a tip from head referee, Bill Vinovich that the toss would come up heads.  Trust me on this one. 

How long will it take Idina Menzel to sing the US National Anthem (Over/Under 2 minutes 1 second)
Prediction: Under 
I saved Idina Menzel's puppy from a burning building back in 2003, so she owes me a favor.  I am going to cash it in here.  Inside tip is that the US National Anthem will last exactly 1 minute 56 seconds.  

Which Coach will be shown first on TV after Kickoff (Carroll -110, Belichiock -130)?
Prediction: Belichick
The cameras love Bill.

Bill Belichick Hoodie Type? (Sleeves Cut -150, Sleeves Intact +110)
Prediction: Cut
I'm going to stick with the favorite here.  The game is in Arizona.  I expect to see some skin.  CUT THOSE SLEEVES, BILL.  

Which song will Katy Perry perform first at Halftime?
Firework 3/2
Roar 3/2
This Is How We Do 5/1
Dark Horse 12/1
E.T. 12/1
Wide Awake 12/1
Waking Up In Vegas 20/1
Prediction: Dark Horse
I'm going with the dark horse here.  

Final Score (Over/Under 47.5)
Prediction: Under
Look above.  The final score will be 24-20.  Here is the math to back up my argument that the score will be under 47.5:
24 + 20 = 44.  
47.5 = 47.5
44 < 47.5
Therefore, the total score will be less than (under) 47.5 points.  

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his interview?
Teammates 3/2
God 5/1
Fans/City 15/2
Coach 12/1
Family 12/1
Owner 12/1
Does not mention any of the above 2/1
Prediction: God
God has been getting a lot of praise lately.  I expect him to keep his good run going.  God always deserves a shout-out.  


Super Bowl XLIX is merely hours away now.  All I hope is that the game is entertaining, and that the buffalo wings are spicy.  That would be perfect.  I'll be back to wrap up the Super Bowl next week. For now, enjoy the game, drink some beer, listen to your friends make stupid analyses of the game, and try not to get in a fight with a Seahawks fan.  Good luck!