Super Bowl LIII: Prediction

After 17 weeks of regular season football and three weeks of playoff action, we have finally arrived at the big stage. Both of the Conference's #2 seeds, who were able to win their respective Conference Championship Games on the Road, will face off in Atlanta to determine who are the champions of the NFL. Super Bowl LIII is finally here.

Super Bowl LIII @ Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

New England Patriots (11-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

February 3rd, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -2.5)

It will be Super Bowl #9 of the Belichick/Brady Dynasty. Most fans are tired of this same old spectacle, watching one team dominate the NFL so thoroughly for nearly 20 years. However, the fans do not always get what they want, as the Patriots will once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Attribute it to Belichick. Attribute it to Brady. Attribute it to conspiracies (don't actually do that). Attribute it to whatever you want. All that matters is that since 2001, when the Patriots won their first Super Bowl of this long dynastic run, New England has experienced arguably the greatest run of success in all of sports history. If it helps you sleep at night to say that the Patriots did this through cheating, then fine. But this team has not succeeded just because of a few deflated balls or a couple of well-placed video cameras. This team has simply been one step ahead of every other team in the league, at every moment of every season, for the last 18 years.

Calling this a rematch would be dishonest. The only two recognizable faces in this Super Bowl "rematch" are Belichick and Brady, and 17 years later, even their faces are far different than the ones that were represented in Super Bowl XXXVI. Back then, the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” was considered an unbeatable offensive juggernaut. Warner had just one his second MVP in three seasons, and his teammate, running back Marshall Faulk, won the award the season prior. Meanwhile, the Patriots were an unknown commodity that was forced to start their young, unknown, backup quarterback, in place of their injured veteran starter, Drew Bledsoe. However, this backup quarterback was well-tested, as he had won 11 of his 14 starts during the Regular Season, and he had also won both of his playoff appearances. Still, the Patriots were getting little respect against what most assumed would be a blowout Super Bowl. Of course, it was not, as Brady and the Patriots sneakily began their dynasty with a Super Bowl XXXVI victory. Now, 17 years later, the Rams are the unheralded underdog. The Patriots are the unstoppable Goliath. The Rams have the young hotshot coach and quarterback. The Patriots have the grizzled veterans. And the Rams don't even play in St. Louis anymore.

But enough about the past, what does this year’s version of the most-watched sporting event in the country entail? Well, it features two high-powered offenses, two mediocre defenses, and two well-regarded coaches. While McVay has only been an NFL Head Coach for two seasons, what he has done in those two brief years has been impressive. However, when compared against Belichick’s career of success, McVay has done nothing. Similarly, while Jared Goff has shown the potential to be an NFL star, Brady has lived it for 18 years. So, will this be a passing of the old guard to the new, just as it seemingly was 17 years ago, or will the experience of the two men that have been here 8 times before win the day?

Prediction: The Patriots offense gets off to a horrible start, as Brady throws 2 interceptions and coughs up one fumble on their first three possessions. Fortunately, the defense is able to hold the Rams to three Zuerlein field goals off the turnovers. With two minutes left in the half, New England has the ball but trails, 12-0. Brady leads the offense on a touchdown drive to end the half, which culminates in a Sony Michel score. As both teams head into the locker room, the Rams lead by 5, 12-7. The Patriots cut further into the lead to start the second half, as a field goal brings them within 2 points. However, Los Angeles responds when they finally score their first touchdown of the game, on a short Josh Reynolds slant route. The game swings back in New England’s favor, as the Patriots score 13 unanswered points, giving them their first lead of the game, 23-19. As the game creeps later and later into the fourth quarter, the Rams are forced to get aggressive. They convert two fourth downs on their way to another touchdown, this time to Robert Woods. The Rams retake the lead, though a missed extra points keeps the score at 25-23, with 1:35 left on the clock. Brady gets the ball back with two timeouts. He is able to orchestrate masterful drive, just another in his illustrious career. New England is set up for a 39 yard field goal with 4 seconds left. Stephen Gostowski trots out onto the field in Atlanta, and nails it, as the entire world outside of New England simultaneously moans in disgust. The Patriots defeat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII, 26-25.  

Bleh! I guess the Patriots are going to win their 6th Super Bowl (but not cover the spread). Booooo! But honestly, who cares! What I want to know is, what will be the results of all those nonsense Prop bets! Well, read on to find out.

Prop Bets!

Coin Toss

Options:

Heads

Tails

Prediction: Heads

From 2009 to 2013, we had five straight Heads. In the subsequent four Super Bowls, we saw a grand run of Tails. However, in Super Bowl LII, Heads finally ended Tails' streak, cementing their place as the winning call. Now, is this the beginning of a long run of success, or just a blip in the rode of Tails’ Dynastic run? At the moment, Tails leads the all-time series 27-25. With that in mind, I’ll take Heads. Also, I just flipped a coin, as part of a pre-Super Bowl simulation, and it came up Heads, so I’m feeling extra confident.

Length of National Anthem

Options:

Over 1:47

Under 1:47

Prediction: Over

I don’t know anything about Gladys Knight. However, I expect her to milk this thing for all it’s worth. Expect this rendition of the Star Spangled Banner to be well over 1:47 (possibly over 2:00!).

First Player to Score a Touchdowns

Options:

Many

Prediction: Sony Michel (+500)

Michel is getting the best odds to be the first touchdown scorer of the game, and I agree with those odds! As I have already determined in my above prediction, he will indeed be the first touchdown scorer. .

Total Score

Options:

Over 57

Under 57

Prediction: Under

My full game prediction is above. If you can do simple math, you will be able to figure out why I am choosing the Under.

Color of liquid thrown on winning coach

Options:
Clear (Water) +220

Green/Yellow +220

Orange +400

Blue +500

Orange +750

No liquid thrown +1500
Prediction: Green/Yellow

Everybody loves that lemon/lime. I know it’s getting the best odds (along with Clear/Water), but it is also an obvious pick that I’ll gladly take at +220.

Winner of 15th Puppy Bowl

Options:

Team Fluff

Team Ruff

Prediction: Team Ruff

Team Fluff dominated this game last season. However, this team has simply not looked good since last season’s MVP, Bear went down with a season-ending knee Injury. I expect Team Ruff to take full advantage.

Well, there you have it, all my flawless predictions. So, kick back, enjoy a beer (or six), and watch the Patriots slowly and mercilessly devour our souls in Super Bowl LIII. Enjoy!

2019 Conference Championship Recap

In an objectively thrilling weekend of football, both Road teams were able to pull off (slight) upsets in Overtime. The good news is that, at least for now, it looks like I have kept my job as a main contributor for Brosh Knows Football, as my Editor was pleased with my weekend performance. The bad news is that the Patriots will be playing in the Super Bowl for the millionth time in the last 20 years, as the world mourns its slow and inescapable destruction... Anyways, as I was saying, I went 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ATS. This brings my playoff totals to 6-4 straight up (not that good), and 6-3-1 ATS (pretty good). So, as I generally ask, how did we get here?

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) defeat New Orleans Saints (13-3) in Overtime, 26-23

We all saw it. It was blatant. It was horrible. It was surreal. While calling the missed defensive pass interference call that occurred in the dying moments of the game a surreal moment might be hyperbole, that’s what it was to me. When Robey-Coleman laid out Lewis before the ball arrived, it was such obvious pass interference that my initial reaction was to think that maybe I saw it wrong. I had never seen such obvious pass interference. The hit was the most blatant definition of pass interference. So, when I saw a lack of yellow flags on the field after the play, I assumed – I simply had to assume – that  I had seen it wrong. Maybe the ball was tipped. Maybe the angle that I saw the play from was deceptive. Then, I saw the replay, and it confirmed exactly what I had thought happened. In my mind, the only justification for the missed call was that maybe the referee felt how I felt. He had simply never seen such an absurd disregard for the pass interference rule before. So, his immediate reaction was that it couldn’t have been pass interference, since what he saw was so foreign. With that little bit of doubt in his mind, along with the tendency of refs to not want to throw flags on critical plays, the referee turned to stone, kept his flag in his pocket, and ruled the pass incomplete. It was shocking to say the least. And before New Orleans even had a chance to be upset, they were forced to rush their special teams unit onto the field and kick the go-ahead field goal, hoping that it would still be enough to win them the game. Obviously, it was not.

While I generally feel that focusing on one play from a game is a close-minded way to view a 60 minute football game, it’s tough to think about much other than that missed pass interference call. Sure, you could point to some sub-optimal play-calling from Payton, as running the ball so deep in Los Angeles territory would have taken time and timeouts away from the Rams. However, the aggressive play call also could have led to a game-sealing touchdown, had the pass plays caught the Los Angeles defense off guard (which they arguably did).

The Saints had their chances earlier in the game as well. However, they were unable to capitalize, as their first two drives ended in short Wil Lutz field goals. Even while failing to score touchdowns in the early going, they looked like the far superior team during the first quarter, getting out to an early 13-0 lead. However, the Saints let the Rams sneak back into it, as Los Angeles was able to tie the game at 20, late in the fourth quarter.

And of course, the Saints had their chances after the missed call as well. The defense was unable to keep the Rams from getting into field goal range on their final possession of regulation, allowing Los Angeles to push the game into overtime. And New Orleans got the ball first to start the extra period, but they were unable to take advantage, as Brees threw an untimely and unlucky interception. Then, Zuerlein showed just how valuable one of the best Kickers in the league can be, as he comfortably hit a clutch 56 yard field goal to send the Rams to Super Bowl LIII.  

New England Patriots (11-5) defeat Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) in Overtime, 37-31

What a thrilling game. This one had everything. An unexpected start (Kansas City’s #1 ranked offense was shutout in the first half!) An impressive comeback (the Chiefs rallied to take the lead after starting the game down 14-0). Fourth quarter fireworks (Kansas City and New England combined for an astounding 38 points in the fourth quarter). Controversy (I guess giving Tom Brady a friendly tap on the shoulder is considered Roughing the Passer now). Overtime (The second overtime game of the day!). And an old dog showing us his typical tricks (Brady easily marched his offense down the field for a touchdown on the game-winning overtime drive).

When you look back at the game, one thing is clear. The Patriots were the superior team on Sunday. New England outgained Kansas City, 524-290, and they controlled the game, as they had possession of the ball for 43:59 and 94 plays, as compared to 20:53 and 47 plays for the Chiefs. New England dictated the flow of the game. Only a couple of unusual Brady interceptions kept Kansas City competitive in the early going. However, when luck mattered most, the Patriots were there. For the third straight time, the Patriots won the Overtime Playoff coin toss. And for the third straight time, Brady marched his team down the field for the winning score, never giving the opposing offense a chance to touch the ball. Though it should be noted that in their 2001 Overtime win against the Raiders in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs *resists urge to punch computer*, New England only required a field goal to win what will forever be remembered as the Tuck Rule Game. 

I think everyone watching the game had little doubt that New England's opening drive of overtime would end in a Patriots touchdown. While the Chiefs defense put up a good fight, forcing 3 third and longs, each conversion resulted in further dejection and further exhaustion for the Kansas City defense. On New England’s 94th play of the game, the Kansas City defense simply had nothing left in the tank, and Burkhead was able to walk the ball into the end zone for the score.

With the way that this overtime period panned out, it makes you wonder why both teams are not given an opportunity to possess the ball, no matter the outcome of the first possession of overtime. The rule change to eliminate a field goal from winning a game on the first possession was certainly a good start, but going one step further could be all it takes to reduce the value of winning the overtime coin toss to nothing. That being said, I’m sure Kansas City fans are not interested in any rule changes now, as there is no way to change the outcome of this game. For now, they must accept that their streak of 49 years away from the Super Bowl will continue. Meanwhile, the Patriots head to their third straight Super Bowl appearance, a truly impressive feat for what may very well be the tail end of one of the greatest sports dynasties of all time.

Two teams enter, only one can leave as Super LIII Champions. It will be the Young Gun vs. The Old Dog of February 3rd, in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI. Predictions will be coming in next week. Stay tuned!

Playoff Predictions: Conference Championships 2019

We have arrived at the Final Four, and both Conference Championship Games are rematches of exciting games from the Regular Season. If you’re not a fan of spoilers, stop reading now because I am about to ruin this weekend of football for you. If you already had plans for Sunday, read on. Since my predictions always come with a 100% accuracy guarantee™, you don’t have to worry about whether or not the information is good. So read on, and enjoy the piece of mind of not having to worry about missing any action from this coming weekend.

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Sunday, 3:05 PM ET (Current Line, Saints -3.5)

What a treat this game will be, as we get a rematch of Week 9’s 45-35 thriller, in which the Saints were just able to edge out the Rams in New Orleans, handing them their first loss of the season. And just like it was in Week 9, the rematch will be played in New Orleans, at the Mercedez-Benz Stadium. This wonderful NFC Conference showdown pits the number 2 scoring offense against the number 3 scoring offense, in what is sure to be a thrilling affair. The potency of both offense is well known. Goff is having a great season, thanks to the scheming of Sean McVay, and the wealth of talent that has been placed around him, in the form of Gurley, Cooks, and Woods. Meanwhile New Orleans may feel even more comfortable than Los Angeles, as the veteran tandem of Sean Payton and Drew Brees (a pairing that won the Super Bowl during the 2009 season) will look to lead their own talented group of players to victory, which includes studs such as Kamara, Ingram, and Thomas.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams ranked 19th and 20th in scoring and total defense. While the Saints were slightly better, coming in at a mediocre 14th in both scoring and total defense, they were actually 29th against the pass and 2nd against the rush. It will be interesting to see if Los Angeles looks to exploit New Orleans’s obvious weaknesses in their pass defense, or if they choose to simply run the ball down the Saints’ throats, similar to how they did against Dallas’s stingy run defense in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, when Anderson and Gurley combined for a bonkers 238 yards on the ground. Back in Week 9, it was the aerial show for both teams, as Goff and Brees threw for 391 and 346 yards, respectively. Will we see a similar aerial attack from both teams, or will either of these teas try to dictate the flow of the game on the ground?

Prediction: This one is all offense, as both quarterbacks go off for huge games. Brees and Goff both top 400 yards, as defense is simply not a factor. At halftime, the Saints lead the Rams, 24-20. Los Angeles immediately takes back the lead to open the second half, when they score on a 75 yard screen pass to Gurley. In the dying stages of the game, New Orleans, down by 2, drives the length of the field, ultimately settling for a short 31 yard field goal with 31 seconds left, which gives them a 1 point lead. On the ensuing Rams possession, Goff is able to hit Woods and Cooks for two chunk plays that sets them up for a long, 59 yard field goal with 4 seconds remaining. Zuerlein hits the kick with enough power, but it sails just wide to the left. HOWEVER, the Saints had called a timeout, so he gets another chance to hit the game-winner… and he misses again, this time wide right! HOWEVER, a Saints player is ruled to have been offside. Zuerlein gets one more chance at what is now a 54 yard field goal. He hits it perfectly down the middle, as the Rams win, 43-41.

New England Patriots (11-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Sunday, 6:40 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -3.0)

What a treat this game will be, as we get a rematch of Week 6’s 43-40 thriller, in which New England was just able to edge out Kansas City in Foxborough. Unfortunately for the Patriots, playing at Arrowhead is much more difficult than playing at home. Still, you have to like New England’s chances, especially after watching them decimate the Chargers in the Divisional Round last week.

This game will certainly be an intriguing one. Both teams have similar offensive philosophies. They both like to use misdirection. They both like to use their running backs as a critical parts of their short passing game. And they both love screens and quick routes. Both teams do everything they can to get their play-makers the ball early and often. The main difference, in my opinion, is that the Chiefs have much more talented skill players than do the Patriots. Both teams have a great wealth of talent at running back (though I’d say New England is slightly better at this position), using multiple running back sets to keep linebackers and safeties off-balance. Edelman is good, but he is the only legitimate wide receiver threat that the Patriots have, and even he doesn’t garner the respect of the safeties, as he doesn’t have the game-breaking speed of player like, say, I don't know, Tyreek Hill. 

Speaking of Hill... he is the main threat of Kasnas City's talented wide receiver group, which also includes Watkins, Conley, and, thanks to a recent addition, Kelvin Benjamin. And while these two teams would have been considered relatively equal at the Tight End position last season, things have changed in 2018. Gronkowski has not been his typical dominant receiving self this year (though he has been a great downfield blocker). On the other hand, his counterpart, Travis Kelce has been nearly unguardable this year, amassing 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns over a superb Regular Season.

If there is one reason to be optimistic for Patriots fans, it is that their defense has been the far superior unit this season. While neither defense has been great, the Chiefs have been particularly bad, ranking 31st in Total Defense. Obviously they have made up for it with an historically great offense that ranked first in scoring and yardage, but that might not be enough to defeat the 5 Time Super Bowl Champions. 

Prediction: This one is all offense, as both quarterbacks go off for huge games. Brady and Mahomes both top 400 yards, as defense is simply not a factor. At halftime, the Patriots lead the Chiefs, 24-20. Kansas City immediately takes back the lead to open the second half, when they score on a 75 yard screen pass to Williams. In the dying stages of the game, New England, down by 2, drives the length of the field, ultimately settling for a short 31 yard field goal with 31 seconds left, which gives them a 1 point lead. On the ensuing Patriot possession, Mahomes is able to hit Hill and Kelce for two chunk plays that sets them up for a long, 59 yard field goal with 4 seconds remaining. Butker hits the kick it with enough power, but it sails just wide to the left. HOWEVER, the Patriots had called a timeout, so he gets another chance to hit the game-winner… and he misses again, this time wide right! HOWEVER, a Patriots player is ruled to have been offside. Butker gets one more chance at what is now a 54 yard field goal. He hits it perfectly down the middle, as the Chiefs win, 43-41.

We are a mere two weeks away from the Super Bowl. Which two teams will represent their conference on the NFL’s biggest stage? Who will be the two contenders for the 53rd edition of the NFL’s top prize? All our questions will be answered soon.

2019 Divisional Round Recap

The top 4 seeds are through to the Conference Championship Round! Good for them! Unfortunately, that is not what I predicted would happen. It looks like my incredible predictive playoff powers were short-lived, as I missed most of my picks in the Divisional Round. I correctly predicted that two games would be close and two would be blowouts. However, I incorrectly predicted that the close games would be in the AFC and the blowouts would be in the NFC, as I got that part exactly backwards. Woops! Anyways, I went 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS, bringing my playoff totals to 5-3 straight up and 4-3-1 ATS. The good news is that I am slightly better than .500 ATS. The bad news is that mediocrity will not be tolerated at Brosh Knows Football, Inc. My editor has already informed me that if I don’t improve my predictions during Conference Championship Weekend, I could be let go before the Super Bowl… uh oh! I better turn this around quick!

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) defeat Indianapolis Colts (10-6), 31-13

While I recognized that Indianapolis might have trouble containing the potent Kansas City offense, I did not consider the fact that the Colts offense would be rendered totally useless in this Divisional Round clash. Indianapolis offense looked uncomfortable and ineffective from the beginning. The line was getting no push, Luck’s passes were wobbly, and receivers were making untimely drops. Indianapolis’s first four possessions were all three-and-outs. On their only decent possession, the final one of the half, Luck led an impressive drive down most of the field. Unfortunately, he and the offense ran out of time before they could make it to the end zone. So, they were forced to settle for a 23 yard field-goal, which Vinateri missed.

Meanwhile, Kansas City looked great, anchored by an offensive line that was pushing around their inferior opponents all day. Williams had tons of space to run, and Mahomes looked like his typical comfortable self. By the end of the third quarter, the game was virtually over. There would be no miraculous comeback for the Colts. After such an impressive performance, you’d expect the Chiefs to be the talk of the town. However, on the other side of the AFC bracket, the Patriots were preparing for their very own beatdown of their very own overmatched opponent.

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) defeat Dallas Cowboys (10-6), 30-22

While the final score was somewhat close, the Rams were by far the better team in this one. Gurley and Anderson were given big holes to run through all day. Goff was given ample time to throw to his many receiving threats. And other than a couple of big plays, the Rams defense was relatively sound. Los Angeles kept Dallas on their heels, utilizing numerous wide receiver end-arounds, which was critical to opening up those aforementioned holes in the Cowboy defensive front. Anderson and Gurley combined for an absurd 238 yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries. The Rams ran the ball on a ridiculous 52 out of 80 plays. Los Angeles’s strategy was clear: run the ball as much as possible. While the strategy was obviously successful, it was a bit surprising, considering Dallas had the 5th best rushing defense during the regular season.

As for the Cowboys, they were able to get some solid production out of Gallup and Cooper, but they were simply never able to get the running game going, as Zeke was held to a pedestrian 47 yards on 20 carries. In retrospect, it would seem that the Cowboys should have tried some more creative ways to get the running game going. The only player other than Elliot to run the ball was Prescott (2 carries). Elliot is obviously a talented running back, but when your offensive scheme utilizes absolutely no misdirection, it’s going to be tough to get the running game going, no matter how talented your players are.

New England Patriots (11-5) defeat Los Angeles Chargers (12-4), 41-28

This game was an absolute thrashing. I should have known better than to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs, but I guess I am just too stupid/stubborn to know better. Perhaps the most interesting part of the game was how simple it was. The New England offense focused on the run game and the short passing game, and it worked brilliantly throughout their first half beatdown of Los Angeles. Brady was hitting his check downs with ease, and finding Edelman on crossing patterns and quick outs. Meanwhile, Michael was finding giant holes in the Los Angeles defense, easily gashing them for over 100 yards on the ground in the first half. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers had no answers for the Patriots blitz. Rivers was constantly under pressure, being forced to heave passes to receivers who were well covered deep downfield. Before you could blink an eye, New England was up 35-7, and the game was virtually over.

For a team that was so tough to beat for so many teams this season, the Chargers looked completely overmatched in this one. It would be easy to point to New England’s wealth of playoff experience as a major factor, but because of the frequency of roster turnover in the NFL, the value of a team’s “playoff experience” is generally exaggerated, in my opinion. Of course, of the two quarterbacks, Brady looked much more comfortable than Rivers. That being said, Rivers has played in a number of playoff games himself, as this was his 11th game as a starter. While his playoff numbers are dwarfed by Brady’s, you would have expected both quarterbacks to be comfortable in a high pressure situation like this one. Unfortunately for the Chargers, that was simply not the case.

New Orleans Saints (13-3) defeat Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), 20-14

One year ago, the Saints were eliminated from the playoffs in devastating fashion, by way of the Minneapolis Miracle. Back for redemption, New Orleans were almost eliminated in the Divisional Round again this season, as Philadelphia gave them all they could handle on Sunday. While this win was certainly satisfying for the Saints, the plan for their redemption tour was not to stop at the Conference Championship. New Orleans has their sights set on a Super Bowl Championship, and allowing the Eagles to keep this game so close must have been concerning for them.

It looked like this game had the potential to be disastrous for New Orleans from the beginning. On the very first play of the game, Brees threw an interception on an underthrown deep ball. Foles then immediately led the Eagles down the field on a convincing touchdown drive. Fans at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium started to get even more nervous, as a three-and-out, followed by another impressive Eagles touchdown drive made the score 14-0. Things were quickly getting out of hand. The Nick Foles magic was in the air.

The next drive saw Brees fumble the ball twice. Fortunately, the Saints were able to recover both. However, they were still held to a punt, giving the ball back to the Eagles, down 14-0. Nothing seemed to be working for New Orleans, until a timely Lattimore interception, followed by a solid touchdown drive, kept the game close. At halftime, the score was 14-10. The second half was defined by two moments, one long and one short: an 11.5 minute touchdown drive by the Saints, which kept the Philadelphia offense off the field for nearly an entire quarter; and the Alshon Jeffery drop that, in an instant, led to the game-sealing interception, just as it seemed as though the Eagles were on their way to a dramatic game-winning touchdown drive. The Eagles will be devastated to have ended the season like this, but for what it’s worth, it was an impressive showing for a team that barely made the playoffs, against the top seeded team from the regular season (one they lost to by 41 points in Week 11).

All four remaining teams are a mere two wins away from capturing the ultimate prize. So, who will it be? Who will represent each Conference in the biggest sporting event of the year? You’ll just have to wait until my Conference Championship predictions are released to find out. Stay tuned! 

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2019

We are down to the final eight! As the top four teams from the Regular Season enter the fold, the competition only gets better. So, which four teams will earn a trip to their Conference Championship Game? Read on to find out.

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -5.5)

Look, I’m not really interested in the tired narrative of the Chiefs not being able to win at Home in the playoffs. While Andy Reid has shown a lack of ability when it comes to making high-pressure decisions late in playoff games, I don’t think that should be considered a legitimate factor in this game. What should be considered a legitimate factor is the fact that these Colts are for real. Indianapolis has looked nearly unbeatable since Week 6 of the Regular Season, as Luck has been nearly the best version of himself throughout the last 2.5 months of the season. Meanwhile, this Indianapolis defense has looked more than formidable, holding opponents to an average of 21.5 points per game, good enough for 10th best in the league. That being said, this will be by far the best offense that the Colts have faced yet. In fact, the Colts have only faced a top 10 Scoring Offense once this year (Patriots, 4th), and they got walloped in that Week 5 matchup, 38-24. So, has their defensive success been more of a factor of great play, or have they just been the beneficiary of easy matchups? Fortunately, we will be getting our answer to that question this week, as Kansas City had both the top Total and Scoring Offense this season.

Expectations will be deservedly high for this Chiefs team. They should still be considered the top contender for the Super Bowl from the AFC side. If there are any concerns surrounding Kansas City, it will be that they only won 3 of their final 6 regular season games. Two of those games were against the woeful Raiders, and the other was an Overtime victory over the Ravens that could have gone either way. Still, there is a reason why these Chiefs finished as the top seed in the AFC. They are good. Their lackluster defense may be forced to make some plays if they hope to succeed in this year’s playoffs. However, if Kansas City continues to score like we know they can, a serviceable defense might not even be necessary.

Prediction: Defense is not on the menu in this one, as both offenses come out on fire. Touchdowns are scored on all of the game's first four possessions. By halftime, the score is even at 24-24. Things don’t slow down much in the second half, as touchdowns continue to rain down on Arrowhead Stadium. Indianapolis takes a 1-point lead with 1:30 left on the clock, with a touchdown catch by Chester Rogers. The Chiefs get the ball back and immediately begin driving down the field. On 3rd and long from their own 45 yard line, Mahomes makes an errant throw that is intercepted by Geathers, clinching the win. The Colts win by the exact same scoreline as their wild playoff victory over the Chiefs from 2014, 45-44.

Dallas Cowboys (10-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Rams -7.0)

Gurley vs Zeke. Goff vs Dak. This game’s got the star power, which is perfect for a big Los Angeles playoff game. The Rams looked like the undisputed best team in the league for most of the Regular Season, until they were beaten soundly by the Saints in Week 9. Back-to-back losses against the Bears and Eagles, which they only managed to score a meager 29 points between the two weeks, all but sealed their fate as the 2 seed. Still, a 13 win campaign is nothing to be disappointed about. It sounds like Gurley will finally be healthy for this one, which is great news for the Rams and their All-Pro Running Back. I’m sure Goff will enjoy having him back very much.

On the other side of the ball, we will see how Dallas feels about playing the underdog role. While the Rams are the clear favorites in this one, the Cowboys have shown an ability to play well against some top competition, even snagging a win against the top seeded Saints earlier this season. However, Dallas has also shown that they can completely fall apart against top competition, as was evident during their shutout loss to the Colts in Week 15, when Indianapolis dominated them to the tune of 23-0. That being said, with Elliot running the ball and a solid Defense to keep the Rams in check, Dallas should be somewhat confident in their ability to control the pace of the game (though the same could be said about Gurley and the Rams). So, which Cowboys team will show up to this one? And will the Rams be able to quickly shake off the rust after a first round Bye to properly handle the Cowboys?

Prediction: Gurley scores on a 75 yard screen play on the very first play of the game, as the Rams come out hot. Los Angeles then returns an interception for a touchdown on Dallas’s first possession, as the game quickly begins to get out of hand. By halftime, the score is 24-0. It is more of the same in the second half, though the Cowboys are able to make the scoreline at least a little respectable. Ultimately, the Rams are just too good, as they come away with the easy victory, 45-17.

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ New England Patriots (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -4.0)

In my mind, this game is a total toss-up. The Patriots have been relatively inconsistent this season, finding ways to lose (by a lot) to the Jaguars, Titans, and Lions. However, they have also been very impressive at home, going 8-0 during the Regular season, which included impressive wins over the Chiefs, Colts, and Texans. On the flip side, the Chargers went an impressive 7-1 on the Road this season (though every game is pretty much a Road game for them), with their only Away game loss coming at the hands of the Rams. However, since that Road game was technically in Los Angeles, you could boost that Charger Road Record by saiyng that the Chargers went 7-0 outside of Los Angeles this season. Actually… *checks 2018 NFL schedule one more time* one of the Chargers’ “Home” games was at Wembley Stadium, in London, which they won. Therefore, the Chargers actually went 8-0 outside of Los Angeles during the regular season. Considering this information that is certainly not a statistical anomaly, Los Angeles must feel very excited about the fact that they get to travel to New England for this playoff game! 8-0 vs. 8-0. Something’s gotta give! As for the game itself, I expect it to come down to some late game heroics, and I think Brady might have the edge in those types of playoff situations, considering he has 27 playoff wins to Rivers’ 5.

Prediction: This game is close from beginning to end. Neither offense is able to dictate the pace of the game as they would like. The Chargers Defense plays up to their known abilities, as Brady continues to get hit with constant pressure. Meanwhile, the Patriot Defense also plays surprisingly well, keeping Los Angeles out of the endzone in the first half. At the break the Chargers lead, 9-3. The offensive gameplans get better in the second half, as both teams are able to find the endzone in the third quarter. The game continues to go back-and-forth, as neither team is able to build a substantial lead. Ultimately, the Patriots have the ball with 2.5 minutes left in the game, down by 6. Brady leads New England down the field on a perfect drive, scoring a touchdown with 15 seconds left in the game, on a Gronkowski reception. However, Gostowski shockingly misses the extra point, and the game heads to Overtime. In the extra period, the Patriots get the ball first, but are unable to score. On the subsequent drive, Rivers leads Los Angeles down the field for an easy 35 yard field goal attempt, which Badgley nails. Chargers win, 29-26

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Saints -8.0)

Will the Nick Foles magic continue? Seems unlikely… right? The Eagles can't continue to overperform like this, RIGHT? Playing as the 6th seed, as opposed to the 1 seed like last season, Philadelphia’s path to repeating as Super Bowl Champions is far more arduous. Instead of facing the lowest seeded playoff team in the NFC like they did in 2018, the Eagles will be forced to play the top seeded team in the NFL this time around, in the form of the New Orleans Saints. And other than their odd Week 1 hiccup against the Bucs, the Saints have only lost 1 game this season with Drew Brees starting at quarterback. To make matters worse for Philadelphia, the Saints have already annihilated the Eagles once at the Mercedez-Benz stadium this season, 48-7 in Week 11. Of course, that was against the lowly Carson Wentz. Nick "The Great One" Foles would have easily led the Eagles to victory if he had been playing during that Regular Season matchup…

For the Saints, Brees is playing some of the best football of his career. Kamara and Ingram are a nightmare to deal with out of the backfield. Michael Thomas is turning into one of the best receivers in the league. And the defense has been adequate enough to make many of their wins comfortable this season. If there is anything to be concerned about in New Orleans, it is only that their last few games have not been too good. Since averaging 37 points per game over their first 11 games of the season, the offense has begun to sputter a bit. Since Week 13, the Saints are only averaging a meager 20 point per game (excluding their Week 17 game against Carolina, in which they were resting their starters). In fact, New Orleans hasn't scored over that aforementioned 37 point average since that Week 11 game against the Eagles. So, has this just been a blip on the radar, or is the Saints offense losing some of its spark at the worst possible time of the season?

Prediction: It’s a slow start for the Saints, as the Eagles get out to an early 13-3 lead. Brees is having trouble finding his rhythm, but the New Orleans defense is keeping Philadelphia within striking distance. The Eagles continue to maintain their lead into the fourth quarter, though the margin has shrunk to a score of 20-17. Finally, in the fourth quarter, the Saints take their first lead of the game, and they never look back. New Orleans scores 3 touchdowns in the final quarter, as no amount of Nick Foles magic can keep the game close. Saints win, 38-27.

Four games. Four flawless predictions. The Divisional Round starts tomorrow. So, put on your favorite jersey, grab a couple beers, find a couple friends, and enjoy this weekend’s slate of games. 

2019 Wild Card Weekend Recap

What a great Wild Card Weekend of Football! And what a great start to my predictions. After four playoff games, I am 3-1 Straight Up and 3-0-1 ATS (Against the Spread). I won against all of the betting lines that I possibly could, since the Seattle vs. Dallas game ended as a Push. But enough about me. Let’s delve into what happened in each of the four thrilling Wild Card games from last weekend.

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) defeat Houston Texans (11-5), 21-7

Well… not all of the games were exciting. Wild Card Weekend got off to a slow start, as the Colts absolutely dominated the Texans, just as I predicted they would. This is the only game that I said would be decided by double digits, and I was right. Good job, me.

As for the game itself, Luck looked invincible, the Colts defense looked ferocious, and the entire Texans team looked dazed and confused. It was a complete demolition, as Houston simply had no answer to the onslaught. The final score line makes the game seem even closer than it was, as Houston was only able to put up their first points of the game with 10:57 left in the 4th quarter, long after the game had been decided.

Possibly the most impressive stat from the game was that Watson threw the ball 49 times, and only amassed 235 yards, which is about 4.8 yards per attempt. That’s bad! Now, you could say that Watson had a bad game, but I think the Colts defense might just be this good. And while Luck’s 222 passing yards don’t look amazing either, he was able to get those yards on a very efficient day, and in a game that didn’t require the Colts to score after halftime, thanks to a 21-0 cushion. Fortunately for all the neutral fans, every game after this first contest of the weekend was much more exciting.

Dallas Cowboys defeat Seattle Seahawks (10-6), (10-6), 24-22

In my only miss of the weekend, I incorrectly predicted that the Seahawks would grab the win here. In my defense, I clearly wasn’t that confident in Seattle, since I said they would need overtime to get the victory. In my opinion, these were the two worst teams in the playoffs, and they did nothing to change my mind about that.

Seattle is always an odd to team to watch, as they simply refuse to throw the ball consistently, even when they are trailing (and even though they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Russell Wilson). Still, they had found ways to win all year, while relying heavily on their strong running game. Unfortunately, the main problem for the Seahawks in this matchup was getting that running game to be effective. Carson managed only 20 yards on 13 carries, as the team totaled only 73 rushing yards, far less than their 160 yard average from the Regular Season. Janikowski’s hamstring injury made the end of the game somewhat odd, as Seattle was unable to kick PATs or field goals. However, this seemed to work out for them, as they went 2 for 2 on 4th down and converted both of their 2-point conversions. Well… it worked out for them until the end of the game, when Mike Dickson oddly drop-kicked one of the worst Onside Kick attempts I have ever seen.

For the Cowboys, the big three played well, as Cooper caused problems in the secondary all day, Zeke gashed the defense for 137 yards on the ground, and Dak played efficiently (other than a lone red zone interception, which probably could have been called back for defensive pass interference). Meanwhile, the Dallas defense controlled the game, not allowing Seattle to make any big plays, until the end of the game. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they face a much tougher test next week, against the Rams.

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) defeat Baltimore Ravens (10-6), 23-17

Easily the most intriguing game of the weekend, the Ravens and Chargers battled it out in a contest of two somewhat unknown commodities. While Los Angeles had been good all year (you have to be to win 12 games), they were still seemingly flying under the radar (maybe that’s just because they have no fans). On paper, the Chargers clearly appeared to be the stronger of the two teams. However, they had lost to this very same Ravens team just two weeks prior. For Baltimore, their season script has been even stranger. While they have been great with Lamar Jackson at quarterback (6-1 to end the regular season), their success may have been in spite of the rookie quarterback. While Jackson certainly opens up the field with his ability to run, Harbaugh has been reluctant to allow him to throw the ball more, not yet trusting his passing abilities. Over Jackson’s first 8 NFL starts, he has only thrown for more than 200 passing yards once (though he has also averaged nearly 80 rushing yards per contest as well). In retrospect, maybe they pulled the leash on Flacco a little too early...

Either way, the main storyline from this game, as it rightly should have been, was Anthony Lynn’s great strategy of playing with seven defensive backs for most of the game. While this seems counterintuitive, since Jackson’s throwing ability is of minimal concern, it was actually a brilliant way to limit the speedy quarterback’s running ability. Additionally, Jackson’s passing game was nearly non-existent, as the extra defensive backs seemed to fluster him. It wasn’t until Los Angeles dropped into a Prevent defense that Jackson was able to pad his stats on what was nearly a historically horrible day of passing for the young quarterback. Jackson and the Raven offense had negative 2 passing yards at one point during the fourth quarter. Fortunately, Jackson had some time to redeem himself, as he was able to put together two impressive fourth quarter drives to make the game close. However, it ended up being all for naught, as the Chargers held on for a somewhat easy victory.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) defeat Chicago Bears (12-4), 16-15

Lucky for us, we got to round out the weekend with the most thrilling contest (and my best prediction) of all. I nailed my halftime score prediction for this one, as Chicago led exactly 6-3 at the break. While the final score wasn’t exactly right, the way the game unfolded in the final moments was fairly close to what I had predicted. Foles indeed "[led] the Eagles on a miraculous drive down the field.” However, it did not conclude with the heroics of a Nick Foles rushing touchdown on 3rd and Goal. He scored with a pass to Tate instead on 4th and Goal. Ignore the fact that Trubisky led the Bears on an even more impressive drive immediately after (and the subsequent missed 42 yard field goal by Parkey), and I got this prediction almost dead-on.

As for the game itself, it will mostly be remembered for the aforementioned missed kick, which somehow managed to bounce off the left post and crossbar before sadly falling to its final resting place on cold, hard Soldier Field. However, lots of interesting things happened before that. The Bears won the turnover battle (2-0), thanks to an efficient, mistake-free performance from Trubisky. Chicago outgained Philadelphia 356-300. And the Bears dominated field position all day. However, the reason for the Eagles' victory came down to a single stat: red zone efficiency. In three red zone trips, the Bears had to settle for three short field goals. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was able to convert two of their three red zone trips into touchdowns. And that was the difference. Ultimately, Chicago was unlucky not to come away with a win in this one, but maybe that’s just the magic of Nick Foles. This guy simply can't be beat in the playoffs.

That’s it for the first round of the playoffs. The Divisional Round is just around the corner. Predictions will be coming in later this week. Stay tuned!

Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Weekend 2019

The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time in awhile, there is no clear favorite to win it all. The Saints, Rams, and Chiefs look to be the clear top contenders, but they have all shown weaknesses during the Regular Season. Meanwhile, that list doesn’t include Brady and the Patriots, who are always a threat to win it all. Besides the teams on Bye, you could make a case that any of the eight teams below are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Andrew Luck appears in top form. The Texans have looked nearly unbeatable over the second half of the season. Wilson and the Seahawks are always a threat to turn January into a magical playoff run. Dallas is a well-built team, capable of staying competitive with any other team in the league. The Chargers were a tie-breaker away from being the top seed in the AFC. Baltimore has looked like a totally different team with Jackson at quarterback. The Eagles are the defending champs, and Foles has looked like his 2018-playoff self over the last three weeks. And Chicago may be the best team playing on Wild Card Weekend. It’s truly any team’s Super Bowl to win. For now, let’s just focus on Wild Card Weekend…

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ Houston Texans (11-5)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Texans -1.5)

These two teams split their regular season series, with each team winning on the road by the exact same margin, three points. For that reason, this game will serve as the perfect rubber match to decide who moves on as the lone AFC South representative in the playoffs. Both teams head into the playoffs on a good run of form, as the Texans and Colts have won 11 of their last 13 games and 9 of their last 10 games, respectively. Deshaun Watson is playing at a competent level, which is really all Houston need thanks to their high-powered defense, which features Clowney, Watt, Mercilus (great name), and McKinney. For Indianapolis, it will be about the offense. With Luck apparently back to full strength, the Colts offense looks like one of the best in the league again. Containing his weapons of Mack, Hilton, and Ebron will be the main task for this Texan defense. So, who will win this classic battle of offense vs. defense?

Prediction: The first half is a tight affair, as both teams seem a bit nervy out of the gate. At the break, the score is 10-10. The Colts come out hot in the second half, as Mack breaks free for a long touchdown. Luck adds two more scores through the air, as the Colts cruise to victory, 31-20

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -2.0)

Seattle is another team that closed the season very strong, winning 6 of their final 7 games, including an impressive win over the Chiefs (and an inexplicable loss to the 49ers). Wilson has been great down the stretch, as Seattle has been able to utilize play-action extremely well, thanks to an incredibly effective running game. The trio of Carson, Davis, and Penny have been great. And the speed of Baldwin and Lockett have forced opposing secondaries to stay honest against the running game. While their defense is certainly not as good as it was during the days of the Legion of Boom, it is still a formidable unit. As for Dallas, they also closed the season strong (I’m sensing a trend here), winning 7 of their final 8 games, albeit in less impressive fashion. While Dallas did well to win many games down the stretch, all their wins were by single scores (though one of those wins was against the Saints, which is fairly impressive, no matter what the score). Fortunately for the neutral fan, the Cowboy defense has been great this season, particularly against the run, which should add some intrigue to the battle in the trenches. With such an evenly contested match, one big play could change it all, but who will be the player to step up and make that play?

Prediction: Dallas gets out to the early lead, as Elliot dominates on the ground in the early-going. Heading into the third quarter, the Cowboys lead, 20-10. Dallas begins to play conservative, as they try to protect their lead, which gives Wilson enough time to lead the Seahawks to a comeback. When Janikowski hits the game-tying field goal with no time left in Regulation, the game heads to overtime. Seattle wins the toss, and Wilson marches Seattle all the way down the field for the touchdown, ending the game before Prescott and the Cowboys can even touch the ball. Seahawks win, 26-20.

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Ravens -3.0)

This is a tough one for me. On one hand, the Chargers finished tied for the best record in the AFC, and they have a quarterback who has 14 more years of experience than the opposing team’s quarterback. On the other hand, Baltimore won when these two teams met in Week 16 of the regular season, in a game that was critical for both teams, and Baltimore comes into this game having won 6 of 7 games with Lamar Jackson behind Center (OK, fine, just about every playoff team had a strong end to their season). Historically, rookie quarterbacks have a tough time in the playoffs. However, you don’t have to look too far back in time to find a rookie success story. During Joe Flacco’s rookie year (2008), he led the Ravens to the AFC Title game, only to lose to the Steelers. Now, Flacco will be sitting on the bench, as he’ll watch to see if Jackson can repeat his success. This is another game that feels like it could go either way. So, will rookie success win the day, or will experience at quarterback prove to be the critical factor?

Prediction: Jackson and the Baltimore offense appear nervous out of the gates. In their first two possessions, Jackson loses the ball on a fumble and then throws a bad interception. Los Angeles capitalizes on both opportunities to the tune of a 10-0 lead. However, Baltimore creeps back into the contest, and they eventually tie the game with a Tucker 57 yard field goal late in the fourth quarter. However, Rivers immediately leads the Chargers down the field, and sets them up in field goal position with no time left. To the shock of Charger fans everywhere, Badgley hits the 42 yard field goal as time expires, and Los Angeles wins, 20-17.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ Chicago Bears (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Bears -6.5)

Is Nick Foles ready to lead the Eagles on another historic run through the playoffs? Foles is 4-1 as a starter this season, including wins against the Texans and Rams. That being said, it seems unlikely that these Eagles make a deep run in the playoffs. While the heroic narrative of Foles leading another unlikely charge though the playoffs is certainly an exciting playoff narrative, it’s a tall order for this mediocre 9-7 team. As for the Bears, they head into their first playoff game since the 2010 season, led by a second year quarterback. While Trubisky has proven to be competent this season, I would be nervous about how he will react to his first NFL playoff start. Additionally, if you’re looking for any reason that the Bears should be less than 100% confident that they can advance to the next round of the playoffs, look no further than the fact that Chicago had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season at 0.430. So, maybe their record is a bit inflated. Still, 12 wins is an impressive feat against any NFL schedule.

Prediction: Defense owns the first half, as neither team is able to find the end zone. Going into the halftime break, the Bears lead 6-3. Both offenses have more success at the start of the second half, as each team find the endzone on their opening drive of the third quarter. The game continues to go back and forth until late in the fourth quarter. Down 20-16 with less than two minutes to play, Foles leads the Eagles on a miraculous drive down the field. On 3rd and Goal from the 5 yard line, Foles is flushed out of the pocket. He finds some running room, and is able to score on the ground, finding the endzone with an incredible Superman dive. The Eagles shock the Bears, 23-20.

So I guess I’m going with all the underdogs… that doesn’t seem smart... Oh well! Enjoy Wild Card Weekend!