Super Bowl LIV: Predictions

It has finally arrived. The premier event of the sports year is just a couple days away. The Chiefs will look to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years, while the Niners hope to match the Steelers and Patriots for first place in total Super Bowl wins at six. So who will win Super Bowl LIV? There's only one way to find out... well, two ways actually. You can either watch the game or you can just read my predictions. Your choice. (Warning: Spoilers ahead!)

Super Bowl LIV @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

February 2nd, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -1.5)

In a game that has the potential to produce offensive fireworks, the Kansas City Chiefs and their explosive passing game will take on a San Francisco 49ers team that has proven to be lethal through both the air and ground. While calling the Chiefs one-dimensional may feel like an insult, it is hard to argue that the passing game is far and away the most prolific part of the team. Mahomes has arguably the best arm in the league, and he is surrounded by some of the best offensive weapons in the league. The Chiefs are all speed, and they have the ability to make any defense look absolutely ridiculous. Tyreek Hill can run by any defender. Watkins and Hardman are speedsters themselves, dwarfed only by the speed of the aforementioned Hill. Kelce draws the attention of two defenders whenever he runs across the middle of the field. And Damien Williams can make defenders miss in the backfield, whether it is after a quick dump-off pass or off of a well-designed counter-run. 

Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense may be even more potent than that of Kansas City. The Niners have decimated opponents on the ground all season, with last game’s thrashing of Green Bay being no anomaly. If it weren’t for the running prowess of Lamar Jackson, the Niners most likely would have led the league in rushing. The offensive line has been a run blocking juggernaut all season, opening massive holes for Mostert, Coleman, and Breida to speed through. And even though the passing game has not gotten as much attention as of late, the 49ers can hurt opponents through the air as well, which they demonstrated in their Week 14 win over the Saints, when Garoppolo threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in a thrilling 48-46 victory.

But what about the defenses? Will either be able to handle the monumental tasks ahead of them? While the Chiefs and 49ers have both been a bit vulnerable against the run, they have both been more effective against the pass. Of course, the 49ers weren't simply effective against the pass this season; they were nearly unbeatable, allowing a league-leading 169 yards per game. Seeing how effective Mahomes can be against this dominating pass defense should be thrilling to watch. What I expect to be particularly interesting is the battle between the offensive line of Kansas City and the defensive line of San Francisco. The Chiefs finished third in the league in sacks allowed with 25, while the Niners finished fifth in the league with 48 quarterback sacks. Though the Chiefs have done a good job of protecting Mahomes all season, some of this may be due to the simple fact that Mahomes is great at escaping pressure. So, even if the Niners aren’t able to bring Mahomes down in the backfield, simply applying constant pressure may be enough to rattle the young QB. With regards to the ground game, the Chiefs defense has been quite more porous in that regard (26th during the regular season), something that the potent 49ers running game will certainly try to take advantage of. 

In what is expected to be such a tightly contested battle, will this game come down to the final possession? Will which quarterback who comes up with the big plays in the clutch be the deciding factor? With expectations so high for Mahomes, will he try to force the ball into tight spots when things get tough, or will he keep his cool just like he has done all season long? Could the fact that Garoppolo has lower expectations actually benefit the San Francisco quarterback? Will the running take the totality of the offensive burden off Jimmy G's shoulders? Will these two quarterbacks -- both of whom are making their first Super Bowl appearance -- produce the exciting spectacle that we all desire???

Prediction: On Mahomes’ first pass of the game, the ball pops off of Kelce’s hands, into the air and right into the waiting arms of Jimmie Ward. The Niner offense set up inside the Chiefs’ 30-yard line. Five running plays later, San Francisco scores on a Tevin Coleman run from 4 yards out. On the ensuing possession, the Chiefs are forced into a three-and-out, as Nick Bosa gets to Mahomes for a sack on third down. San Francisco blocks the punt and returns it for a touchdown, sprinting out to a 14-0 lead in the first five minutes of the game. The Chiefs are shocked awake by the rough start. They are able to tough out a long drive on their next possession, but it only results in three points. At the end of the first quarter, the score is 14-3. 

The Niners extend their lead in the second quarter on a long touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel, as San Francisco continues to roll. Another Kansas City turnover turns into another San Francisco touchdown, as Shanahan and the Niners build an insurmountable 28-3 lead. There’s no way Shanahan could blow a Super Bowl lead like this! His team is so comfortably ahead! Up by four scores, Shanahan and the Niners would have to experience a monumental collapse to let the Chiefs back into this game... 

Mahomes immediately answers with touchdown passes on back-to-back drives to end the first half, cutting the lead to 28-17 right before the break. 

Kansas City keeps the momentum in the second half, even after a long and horrible halftime show. Mahomes strikes first in the second half on a long pass to Tyreek Hill, cutting the lead to 4. Mostert fumbles the ball away on the next possession, and Mahomes responds with his fourth touchdown pass of the game, as the Chiefs take their first lead of the game, 31-28. But the lead doesn’t last long, as Breida scores on a 65-yard screen pass on the very next possession. But that lead doesn’t last long either, as Mahomes throws his fifth touchdown pass just before the end of the third quarter. Unfortunately, a missed extra point keeps the Chiefs' lead at two, 37-35. 

The lead changes continue into the fourth quarter. The Niners get a field goal to take the lead by one. The Chiefs score a touchdown (a rushing score by Mahomes) but fail on the two-point conversion. When the dust finally begins to settle, the Niners have the ball with 2:35 to go, down by five points. Our dream Super Bowl scenario is upon us, as Garoppolo must score on the final drive of the game to win it for the Niners. The Niners come up with big play after big play, as they eventually find themselves with 3rd and goal from the 6-yard line with only four seconds remaining. San Francisco runs a bootleg to the right. No one is open, and Garoppolo is quickly running out of time and space. Just before he steps out of bounds, he desperately zips the ball across his body, looking for Emmanuel Sanders at the Goal Line. However, the ball is tipped away… and off of a defender’s helmet… and off the fingertips of Kendrick Bourne... and into the waiting hands of GEORGE KITTLE. Kittle makes the catch with no time remaining, as the 49ers win Super Bowl LIV, 44-43.

Wow. What an unbelievable finish. A Super Bowl for the ages. No amount of Mahomes magic (six total touchdowns!) is enough to topple the 49ers. Sorry to spoil the ending for you, but I just couldn’t keep it to myself any longer! I’m nervously shaking just from typing this out! Wow. Just wow. Anyways… I know what you’re thinking… what about all those stupid prop bets? Do you have any advice on those? You better believe I do! My ironclad predictions continue below.

Coin Toss

Options:

Heads

Tails

Prediction: Tails

Tails currently leads the all-time series with a record of 28-25. No reason to question that record of success. However, just to be sure, I decided to run a highly complicated simulation to determine the most likely coin toss outcome. Based on an algorithm that analyzed the results of over 100 Million coin tosses, I have determined that the most likely coin toss result is Tails. 

Length of National Anthem

Options:

Over 2:00

Under 2:00 

Prediction: Over

I’m going to look up who’s singing the national anthem. Hold on. One second. Almost got it. Ahhh, Demi Lovato. I know her. She does that one song, right? It goes like, “Dun dun dun, Why you gotta go and make things so complicated? Blah blah blah blah.” Right? I totally know who this is. I guess I’ll go with the over? Sure. Whatever.

First Player to Score a Touchdowns

Options:

Many

Prediction: Tevin Coleman (14-1)

I like the odds on Coleman since he is kinda hurt but not really. Gives him some good value. Also, I already know what’s going to happen during the game, and based on my above predictions, Coleman hits paydirt first in this Super Bowl. 

Total Score

Options:

Over 54.5

Under 54.5

Prediction: Over

My full game prediction is above. If you can do simple math, you will be able to figure out that 87 is far greater than 54.5.

Color of liquid thrown on winning coach

Options:

Lime/Green/Yellow (+275)

Red/Pink (+300)

Clear/Water (+300)

Orange (+400)

Blue (+400)

Purple (+1400)

Prediction: Red/Pink

Uhhh… both teams have red uniforms. I’m going with red. No question.

Celebrity Appearance During Halftime Show

Options:

Pitbull: Yes (-700)/No (+400)

Will Smith: Yes (+300)/No (-500)

Enrique Iglesias: Yes (+500)/No (-1000)

Ricky Martin: Yes (-140)/No (+100)

DJ Khaled: Yes (+130)/No (-170)

Prediction: If Pitbull doesn’t make an appearance in what should be an absolutely brutal halftime show, I’ll eat my hat.

Super Bowl MVP

Options: 

Many

Prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo (+350)

Well, I’m predicting a 49ers victory, so may as well take Jimmy G at these awesome odds. That being said, I also predict that Mahomes accounts for SIX total touchdowns. Is it possible for Mahomes to win the MVP while playing on the losing team...?

Winner of 16th Puppy Bowl

Options:

Team Fluff (-140)

Team Ruff (EVEN)

Prediction: Team Ruff

Somehow Team Fluff is 7.5 point favorites this year, even though Team Ruff DESTROYED them in last year’s competition. I’m gonna stick with Team Ruff again. They went undefeated during the regular season, so there is really no reason to think that will change in the 16th Puppy Bowl.

Well, there you have it, all my flawless predictions. The San Francisco 49ers grab Super Bowl number six in the most exciting finish in the 54 year history of the NFL’s biggest game. It’s only fitting that they would do this during the Raiders’ last season in the Bay Area. I guess it will make it easier for me and all the other Oakland Raider fans to convert to 49er fans...

2020 Conference Championship Recap

After 266 NFL football games only two teams remain, and fortunately for us, it’s two of the best in the league. One final game in Miami will decide who will be called NFL Champions. But first, how did we get here? In case you hadn't heard, there were two Conference Championship games last weekend that set our Super Bowl matchup. The AFC Title game held my attention for a bit, but once Kansas City took the lead it never felt like Tennessee had a chance. Meanwhile, the NFC Title game was an absolute bloodbath, as the 49ers convincingly crushed the Packers. As far as my predictions went, I was 2-0 straight up and 1-1 ATS on the weekend, bringing my totals 7-3 straight up and 3-7 ATS. Hmmm, not great. For your sake, hopefully my recaps are more accurate than my predictions… Let’s find out!

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) defeat the Tennessee Titans (9-7), 35-24

This one was certainly almost interesting! The Titans deployed their best defense in the first quarter: keeping their offense on the field. And it worked! Thanks to some slow methodical drives, both teams were limited to only four possessions in the first half. This was ideal for Tennessee, as keeping Mahomes off the field was an effective way of stopping him. Unfortunately, their early ten point lead quickly evaporated, due to three straight Kansas City touchdown drives to end the half. Once the Chiefs took the lead, there seemed to be little hope for the Titans, even though the game remained relatively close throughout. Tennessee was simply not built to make a big comeback; Henry and the defense were built to bleed away precious time, not strike quickly. So, when Kansas City stretched their lead to 18 points in the second half, all hope seemed lost for the over-achieving Titans. 

Mahomes led the Chiefs to touchdowns on 5 of 6 drives in the middle of the game, and that was all that was needed to seal the win. Kansas City has won in bursts like this all season, which is why they are always a threat to beat you. Right when the defense feels like they might have the offense figured out, Mahomes and Reid make the adjustment, and suddenly there is no slowing them down. In a blink of an eye, you’ve given up a full games-worth of points, and there is no hope for victory. But the offense is even more nuanced than being capable of a few big plays each game. Mahomes can rip off multiple touchdown drives in a row, and he can do it either fast or slow. The speedy touchdowns are daggers, meant to leave the defense wandering around dazed and confused, questioning positioning and playcalls. The slow drives are punishing, showing that the Kansas City offense can dictate the pace of the game whenever they want, the equivalent of a cat playing with its food. When the Chiefs are at their best, they are a pleasure to watch. Will they be able to dictate the pace of the game in two weeks against the NFC Champs? 

San Francisco 49ers (13-3) defeat the Green Bay Packers (13-3), 37-20

Another weekend, another winning team led by a quarterback with less than 90 passing yards (hat tip to Ryan Tannehill for the first two). But seriously, what the hell is going on in the NFL? This style of football predates my own existence, so I actually don’t even recognize it as the “old way” of football; I just recognize it for the odd monstrosity that it is. Garoppolo threw for 77 yards on only six completions! Those stats are easily attainable on a single drive, let alone an entire football game. In defense of the Niners, this wasn’t a team that was refusing to change their game plan. San Francisco simply had no reason to try anything else. As Mostert ripped off long run after long run, the Niners were probably just as baffled as all the viewers at home who couldn’t figure out why the Packers had no answer for the ground game. Mostert was averaging 10 yards per carry on his first 19 attempts of the game, leading the Niners to a commanding 27-0 lead. He eventually finished with a slightly more reasonable per carry average, rushing for 220 yards on 29 carries over the entire game. Those are high school numbers (and I didn’t even mention the four touchdowns he scored)! 

It was simply a baffling game. Rodgers did well to pad his stats towards the end, so the box score will indicate that the Packers played honorably against the vaunted San Francisco defense, save for a few turnovers. However, that was obviously not the story of the game. Rodgers was harassed by a relentless pass rush. The offense had no rhythm. The defense was simply overpowered. And both teams were basically checked out by halftime. Now, will the Niners need Garoppolo to contribute on Super Bowl Sunday, or can the run game provide enough offense to hang with the firepower of the Kansas City offense? I can’t wait to find out.

On a side note, congrats to me on an incredibly well-predicted NFC Title game. While I didn’t say San Francisco would get out to such an absurd halftime lead, I did come fairly close to predicting the final score exactly right, as my prediction of 37-18 was somewhat respectable. You know what they say, even the blind squirrel finds the nut sometimes... Anyways, I’ll try to use that momentum to carry me to some successful Super Bowl predictions. To my loyal readers, you can expect those predictions to come in later next week. In the meantime, I’ve got a lot to think about. This Super Bowl could really go any way. Will the Chiefs’ dominant offense rule the day? Will San Francisco’s smothering defense and run game control the tempo? What color will the Gatorade be? It has to be red, right? I mean, c’mon, the primary color for both teams is red! Unless that’s a decoy… so much to think about...

Playoff Predictions: Conference Championships 2020

The end of the NFL season is fast approaching. Only four teams remain. The Titans, Chiefs, 49ers, and Packers all have title dreams, but only one of those dreams will ultimately be realized. So, enough chit-chat. Let’s get right to the predictions.

Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Sunday, 3:05 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -7)

The only thing I can say for sure is that if the Titans end up making it to the Super Bowl, they certainly deserved it. A win against the Chiefs will mean that Tennessee would have vanquished all of the AFC’s top three seeds on their way to the AFC Title. While their regular season record was not impressive at all, it should be noted that the Titans have been a totally different team since they replaced Mariota with Tannehill behind Center. As I have previously pointed out, Tannehill led the league in quarterback rating this season at 117.5, on his way to amassing a record of 7-3 as the starter in Tennessee. So, Tannehill must be the reason that Tennessee’s success has continued through the playoffs, right? Well, as you know, through two playoff games Tannehill is averaging a mere 80 yards passing per game. Yet the Titans continue to win, imposing their will on opponents, thanks to a heavy dose of Derrick Henry and arguably a heavier dose of suffocating defense. Will their success continue against the potent Chiefs offense? 

Do you think Kansas City remembers their meeting with the Titans back in Week 10? I know I do. It was a wild game that saw clutch plays/chaos propel the Titans to an unexpected victory. Fortunately for the Chiefs they will have the home crowd on their side for the rematch, as the Arrowhead faithful hope to will the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl, somewhere they haven’t been in 50 years. As I’ve already mentioned, the Titans have built their playoff run on defense. However, Mahomes is a whole different beast. With so many speedy weapons at his disposal, this offense is designed to score fast and often. The only fear for Kansas City is that they are not designed to stop the run. This season, the Chiefs ranked 8th against the pass and 26th against the run. It looks like Henry will be feasting again this weekend, unless the Chiefs can get out to an early lead. If Tannehill is forced to throw the ball a lot, this game could turn into a rout. 

Prediction: It’s the Titans who get out to the early lead, as Henry scores from 1 yard out after a long touchdown drive to open the game. Things start to feel eerily similar to the game in Baltimore just a week ago, as the Titans score again in the second quarter, making it 14-0. Kansas City is able to cash in on a couple of Butker field goals, as Tennessee heads into halftime with a 14-6 lead… the same score they led by last weekend. Arrowhead goes silent as Tennessee scores the next 14 points (just like last weekend), extending their lead to 28-6 in the third quarter. However, that’s when everything changes. The Chiefs score three touchdowns in 7 minutes of game time, all off the arm of Mahomes. For some reason, Andy Reid doesn’t go for two after any of the touchdowns, so the Chiefs still trail 28-27 midway through the fourth quarter. With three minutes left in the game, Mahomes throws his fourth touchdown pass of the afternoon. However, a missed two-point conversion leaves the door wide open for a Titan rally, as Kansas City only leads by 5. Tannehill moves the Titans into Kansas City territory before a game-clinching sack on fourth down seals the win and completes the epic comeback for the Chiefs, on their way to a 33-28 victory and a Super Bowl LIV berth. 

Green Bay Packers (13-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Sunday, 6:40 PM ET (Current Line, 49ers -7.5)

The NFC Title game will also be a rematch from the regular season. However, the Packers would prefer that you not know about that, as they got walloped 37-8 in their earlier meeting with the Niners this season. The San Francisco defense was their typical suffocating self, holding Rodgers to a paltry 104 yards passing, largely thanks to a relentless pass rush that recorded five sacks. So, should we expect similar things this time around? There's little reason to see why not. Garoppolo has only gotten more comfortable as the year has gone on, his torn ACL a distant memory. Kittle is one the most talented tight ends in the league. Sanders has been a great addition to the passing game. The running backs are at full strength. And the defense really has been as good as advertised. 

However, no matter what the aforementioned past result may say, this Packer team is nothing to scoff at. Green Bay hasn’t dropped a game since their loss to the Niners in Week 12. That being said, they haven’t exactly been playing against top talent as of late. While wins over the Vikings and Seahawks looked good, barely escaping against the Redskins and Lions did not. Still, with Rodgers behind Center it would be silly to count this team out. Though Aaron is certainly no longer in the prime of his career, he can still sling the ball with the accuracy of a top-tier quarterback. Now, if he can just avoid getting sacked all day, Green Bay may stand a chance. 

Prediction: Just like in Week 12, Rodgers is strip-sacked on the opening drive of the game. Coleman punches the ball into the end zone from two yards out, as the Niners are rolling from the onset. However, Green Bay is immediately able to right the ship this time, as the Packers score on their next drive, tying things up in the early going. Things slow down after that, and at halftime San Francisco only holds a narrow lead, 13-10. After the break, the Niners strike first on a long touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel. The floodgates begin to burst, as San Francisco outscores Green Bay 21-0 in the third quarter. Rodgers continues to get harassed in the backfield, as the Packers simply cannot find their rhythm. The Niners strut their way to Super Bowl LIV, 37-18. 

I predict an all-red Championship Game. Kansas City heads to their first Super Bowl in 50 years, while San Francisco returns after a brief seven-year absence from the league’s biggest game. Enjoy this weekend of football!... even if you already know what's going to happen.

2020 Divisional Round Recap

What a wild weekend of football! In the end we only saw one major upset, but it was the biggest possible upset of them all. San Francisco’s defense throttled the Minnesota offense until it was no more. Tennessee stunned Baltimore, holding them to a shocking 12 points. Kansas City trailed by 24 points before eventually winning by 20. And Green Bay was barely able to hold on, thwarting Russell’s late game magic. When all the dust settled, I ended up 3-1 straight up and 0-4 ATS (lol). It was a shockingly bad weekend for my predictions, bringing my totals to 5-3 straight up and 2-6 ATS. With such an abysmal record, there aren’t even enough playoff games left to get my ATS record up to .500… Oh well! Fortunately, this is only a recap, so hopefully you can at least trust that this portion of my blog is accurate (please let me know if there are any mistakes).

San Francisco 49ers (13-3) defeat Minnesota Vikings (10-6), 27-10

Smothering. San Francisco’s defense was firing on all cylinders in this one. The pass coverage was great. The pass rush was phenomenal. And Minnesota’s vaunted running game was non-existent, though that can partly be attributed to the fact that they were playing from behind for nearly the entirety of the game. The Vikings only managed 21 yards on 10 carries, adding to their putrid 147 yards of total offense. The total yards would have looked a bit more respectable had the Vikings not taken 46 yards of losses on six San Francisco sacks. 

I’m ashamed to admit that I thought this game might be close. The Niners dominated every facet of this game. Obviously the defense was great, but the offense was steadily dominant as well. With 186 yards on the ground, Coleman and the rest of the running backs controlled the tempo, giving Minnesota few chances to score. San Francisco out-snapped Minnesota 68-45. Every Vikings drive seemed like a struggle. Every 49ers drive felt like a confident march. These teams were not playing on the same level on Saturday, and the better team easily moved onto the NFC Title game. No heroics were needed from the Niners, just a steady dose of dominance. There isn’t really anything to say beyond that. 

Tennessee Titans (9-7) defeat Baltimore Ravens (14-2), 28-12

I’m gonna have to quote myself on this one: 

“If Tannehill fails to crack 100 yards passing again, the Titans will probably lose by 40.” 

I’ll just file that statement under “100% Inaccurate.” Even though they were going up against the most potent offense in the NFL, Tannehill needed just 88 yards on only seven completions to defeat the Baltimore Ravens. The game was an incredible display of what can happen when you don’t get a single break. Baltimore failed to convert both of their critical 4th and 1s, Lamar had a couple of uncharacteristic turnovers (including an early interception off a bad drop), and the Titans converted each of their three red zone trips into touchdowns. Each event can be explained as an unexpected but very possible anomaly. However, when they all come together at once, the result is an epically unexpected result. 

Focusing on the 4th downs, where Baltimore went 0 for 4 (after going 17 for 24 during the regular season), I question the specific calls, rather than the decisions to attempt these conversions. In retrospect, it is easy to say that the play calls were questionable. However, it seemed odd to keep each critical 4th down play so one-dimensional. In my opinion the RPO is really the perfect 4th down option, allowing a dynamic quarterback like Jackson to make the split-second decision needed to get the single yard ahead of him. Instead, the Ravens tried for both of their early 4th and 1 conversions on two designed quarterback runs that ended up not being even close to getting the necessary yard. 

For Tennessee, it was a game of “bend but don’t break” football, as they were outgained 530-300 yards. They frustrated Baltimore with a heavy dose of their unstoppable force, Derrick Henry. They made big plays when they needed them, like Tannehill’s 45 yard touchdown pass to Kalif Raymond (a play that accounted for over half of Tannehill’s total passing yards). And they unleashed a sweet trick play at a critical moment of the game (Derrick Henry jump pass!). While I still believe that this game was somewhat of a fluke, I also think that the Titans were underestimated heading into this one. Will they continue to be underestimated when they head to Kansas City for a rematch with the Chiefs? I assume not, especially considering the fact that they have already beaten the Chiefs this season, back in Week 10. 

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) defeat Houston Texans (10-6), 51-31

What a game. What a wild, weird game. The Texans were up by 24. Twenty-Four! And then, in a flash, they were losing. In a second flash, they were outscored by 44 points over the final three quarters of the game. While all this seemed a bit incomprehensible as it unfolded in real time, you could point to the fact that Houston’s defense was very bad this season and Kansas City’s offense has already shown themselves capable of scoring four touchdowns in a single quarter (I may have been at the game where they did it against the Raiders in Oakland…). So, was this type of bonkers game always a possibility? Sure. Was it expected? No. 

Maybe the only surprising part of it all was Houston’s hot start. The scoring was good, but they were propelled by some great luck on defense. Two drops on what should have been easy catches ended two early drives in the first quarter for Kansas City. A blocked punt was returned for a score by Lonnie Johnson. And an uncharacteristic muffed punt by Tyreek Hill led to another quick touchdown for Houston. It happened fast, but the Chiefs were well-equipped to respond. A few lucky bounces went their way, and suddenly the onslaught was on. Kansas City was 9.5 point favorites. So, against the spread, the Texans were effectively up by 33.5 points in the first quarter. I obviously thought I had that one in the bag, but as you know, the Chiefs ended up covering by 10.5 points. Wild.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) defeat Seattle Seahawks (11-5), 28-23

In every other game, my pick against the spread was way off. At least this one was close, as Green Bay only covered by a half point. Had Seattle converted their 2-point conversion in the 4th quarter, I would have at least something to show for this weekend of predictions. That being said, Green Bay was by far the superior team in this one. Their defense stifled Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense in the first half, and the Green Bay offense took advantage of their opportunities on their way to an early 21-3 lead. Maybe the lack of a serviceable running back was finally catching up to the Seahawks, as Lynch and Homer combined for 39 measly yards on 15 carries. Wilson was forced to will his team to victory, and for a moment it looked like he might just do that in the second half. 

The Seahawks offense was nearly unstoppable in the second two quarters. Unfortunately, they only possessed the ball four times. Seattle scored a touchdown on each of their first three possessions of the second half. However, that wasn’t enough. Green Bay’s defense came up with the single stop they needed, the Seahawks punted, and Aaron Rodgers did the rest, as he converted multiple first downs to put the game away. It may seem harsh, but Seattle’s drives may have simply taken too long in the second half. Down by 18 points, it would have behooved them to play with a little more urgency. Instead, drives of 5:16, 6:30, and 4:28 left them with only a single opportunity to complete the comeback. They failed, and now Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are headed back to the NFC title game. 

All four remaining teams are a mere two wins away from capturing the ultimate prize. So, who will it be? Who will represent each Conference in the biggest sporting event of the year? Will San Francisco continue their dominance, as they try to cap off an incredible worst-to-first season? Will the upstart Titans continue their meteoric ascension through the playoffs? Will Mahomes grab his first Super Bowl in a career that has the potential to see many more? Or will Rodgers finally grab that elusive second Lombardi Trophy? You’ll just have to wait until my Conference Championship predictions are released to find out. Stay tuned!

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2020

And now the top four teams enter the fold. On the NFC side of the bracket, the best of the NFC North will battle the best of the NFC West. On the AFC side of things, the top two seeds in the entire AFC will play host to the top two teams from the AFC South. While the teams and divisions that are represented are unique, I still find myself asking some of the same questions as I do every year during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Will the Bye Week have the top four teams rested or rusty? Which of the home teams is most vulnerable to an upset? Will elite defense or elite quarterback play rule the weekend? So many questions… but nothing to fear! I have four simple answers to your many lingering questions. 

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, 49ers -7)

How long can the six seeds keep rolling through the playoffs? I’m sure any Vikings fan will hate to hear this, but the last six seed to win the Super Bowl was the Green Bay Packers in 2010. Like I’ve said previously, this Minnesota team is no ordinary six seed. If not for an unusually strong NFC, the Vikings may have been just starting their playoffs now coming off a first round Bye. Instead, they travel to the Bay Area to take on the top seeded 49ers. San Francisco is built on elite defense, but that doesn’t mean their offense is anything to scoff at. San Francisco was second in the league in rushing yards, thanks to the dynamic trio of Mostert, Coleman, and Breida. Behind Center, Garoppolo has been the perfect game manager for this great team. Jimmy G has yet to prove himself from a statistical standpoint, but I doubt he cares about that. The 49er quarterback continues to have an unreal start to his NFL career, winning 21 of his first 26 professional starts. 

If there is any hope for the Vikings, it will be on the ground. Cook has been impressive for Minnesota all year, and while San Francisco’s defense is great, they were ranked 17th against the run during the regular season. Protecting the ball will be key for both teams. However, if the Niners get out to an early lead, it may end up being a runaway. San Francisco are one of the best at protecting a lead, and Cousins and the offense were not exactly designed to make big comebacks. 

Prediction: On the first snap of the game, Mostert fumbles the ball away. Cousins immediately hits Thielen for a touchdown on the ensuing drive, as Minnesota gets off to an early lead. Things settle down after that, as neither team is able to take command on offense. Minnesota stretches the lead to 10 before the Niners get on the board with a field goal of their own. With 1:30 left to go in the half, Cousins throws a pick-six. At halftime, the score is knotted at 10. The Niners score the next 13 points, as they take command of the game. The lead holds until late in the fourth quarter. With 3:00 left, Cousins leads the Vikings down the field to cut the lead to 6. Minnesota then recovers the ensuing onside kick, setting up a wild finish. Cousins leads Minnesota down to the 15 yard line before a strip sack by Nick Bosa ends the game. Niners win, 23-17. 

Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (14-2)

Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Ravens -9.5)

Watch out for these Titans! They are a feisty group. I love Tennessee as a potential upset pick, as I believe that they are much better than their 9-7 record would indicate. However, Baltimore is clear and away the best team in the NFL, so predicting anything other than a dominant Baltimore performance would be bold. Lamar was unreal this year, accounting for 43 total touchdowns. He has the accuracy of a truly elite starting quarterback and the athleticism of the best running backs in the league. In just two seasons of NFL play, Jackson may already have cemented himself as the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time. However, Baltimore is not all offense (though they did rank first in points and second in yards during the regular season). The Ravens also ranked third in points and fourth in scoring on defense. This team is the whole package. The Titans are going to have their hands full. 

Tennessee must know that this team is on a whole different level than the Patriots. If Tannehill fails to crack 100 yards passing again, the Titans will probably lose by 40. Against Baltimore, you have to make every possession count, as the Ravens are a threat to score a touchdown whenever they touch the ball. If the Titans hope to win, their best chance at victory may be simply limiting how long the Ravens offense is on the field. If Derrick Henry can help the Titans dominate Time of Possession, there may just be hope for these overachievers. 

Prediction: Baltimore scores touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, as they sprint out to a 21-0 lead. The Titans are able to score just before halftime, but Baltimore is in complete control with a commanding 21-7 lead at the break. In the second half Lamar accounts for three more scores before he is taken out of the game early in the fourth quarter. The Titans score in garbage time, but it is far too late to matter. The Ravens roll in an absolute rout, 45-14. 

Houston Texans (10-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -9.5)

In a rematch of their Week 6 game, the Texans and Chiefs will once again square off at Arrowhead. Last time, Houston upset Kansas City 31-24 in a game with plenty of offensive fireworks. Both quarterbacks played aggressively, leading to a healthy dose of turnovers and exciting plays. Hopefully we get the same in this one, as Mahomes is not one to shy away from chucking the ball deep and Watson is not one to get sacked when he is wrapped up by multiple defenders. So, will this game be all offense and no defense? I sure hope so! Neither defense has been particularly great this year. In fact, Houston has been surprisingly bad, allowing the fifth most yards per game of any defense in the league. As a neutral fan, I am totally fine with all of this. More offense please!

Prediction: Mahomes is ripping deep balls from the beginning, hitting Hill and Hardman for chunk plays from the onset. At the end of the first quarter, Kansas City leads 17-3. The dominance continues into the second quarter, as Mahomes throws for a total of four touchdowns and 312 yards in the first half alone. Kansas City’s lead is as large as 28 before the final possession of the first half, when Watson finds Hopkins for a 35-yard scoring toss. At the break, the Chiefs are in command, 31-10. However, things begin to turn in the third quarter. Houston scores the next 14 points, and suddenly the game is close. Heading into the fourth quarter, Kansas City’s lead has been cut to 10. Watson is in full hero mode now, as he finds Darren Fells for a touchdown with just under six minutes to go, cutting Kansas City's once insurmountable lead to a mere three points. Unfortunately, it would be the last time the Texans touched the ball, as the Chiefs are able to slowly bleed away the remaining time on the clock, holding off the Texans for a nervy 34-31 victory. 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (13-3)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Packers -4.5)

This is a fairly intriguing matchup. While I think both teams are good, I also think they are both a bit overrated. Even with Wilson at his best, Seattle struggled to win convincingly all year. Against the Wentz-less Eagles in the Wild Card Round, the Seahawks were only able to put the game away for good late in the fourth quarter. The Packers have a similar story. While the 13-3 record looks good, there were plenty of concerning results throughout the season. Green Bay was barely able to sneak by the pitiful Lions during both matchups against Detroit. They got throttled by the Niners and CHARGERS. And they also had close calls with the Bears (twice) and Redskins. 

So, are either of these teams for real? I guess you could argue that each team has the clutch quarterback needed to win the close ones, but that just seems like a convenient excuse for luck. With two prolific quarterbacks going head-to-head, I guess we are destined for a thrilling game that comes down to the final possession. The only question is, which team will have the ball last?

Prediction: The game gets off to a slow start, as neither offense seems to have any rhythm. It’s not until the final two minutes of the first half that the first touchdown is scored, when Rodgers hits Davante Adams for a glorious back-of-the-end zone, tip-toe catch. As the teams head into the locker room, the Packers hold a slim lead, 10-9. The second half starts with a bang, as Rodgers leads the Packers on another touchdown drive. However, Wilson immediately answers with a touchdown drive of his own. Unfortunately, Seattle goes for two and fails to convert. With the Packers up 17-15, Aaron Jones breaks free for a long touchdown run early in the fourth quarter, seemingly sealing the game. However, Wilson works his magic late in the game, bringing Seattle within two points again. A huge defensive stand gives Wilson the ball back with 1:50 on the clock and no timeouts. Seattle moves the ball into Green Bay territory, inching closer to field goal range. However, two huge sacks put Seattle in 4th and 30 with less than a minute to go. A desperation heave hits the turf, as the Packers escape 24-22.  

And with that, you no longer need to watch the games this weekend since you already know what will happen. So put your newfound free time to good use! Go on a hike somewhere new. Discover a new local restaurant or brewery. Or maybe just catch up on some sleep. The world is your oyster! Or… just watch the games anyways! There’s no better excuse to drink a few beers during the middle (or start) of the day than playoff football. Enjoy the weekend! I'll be back to wrap it all up next week.

2020 Wild Card Weekend Recap

I guess it’s a little late for a Wild Card Weekend Recap… but I don’t care! For those of you still looking to revel in your team’s victory or dwell on your team’s crushing loss, here is an EXCITING late recap for what was an objectively great weekend of football. 

Every matchup was close, and every matchup was exciting. Well, Seattle vs. Philadelphia ended up being somewhat of a garbage game, but at least it was competitive to the end! I got off to a hot start, nailing both Saturday AFC games. However I quickly regressed to the mean, missing both Sunday NFC games. So, after four playoff games, I am a mediocre 2-2 Straight Up and 2-2 ATS (Against the Spread). But enough about me. Let’s delve into what happened in each of the four thrilling Wild Card games from last weekend.

Houston Texans (10-6) defeat Buffalo Bills (10-6), 22-19 (OT)

The Bills led 16-0 late in the third quarter before a catastrophic collapse saw them fall in overtime, 22-19. Buffalo was doing everything they could to make the most out of every possession in the first half. They started the game off with an impressive opening drive, culminating on a Touchdown pass to Josh Allen on a wonderfully designed and executed trick play. They steadily maintained their lead thanks to a heavy dose of suffocating defense, which prevented the Texans from scoring until late in the third quarter. As the game wore on, I realized that I had forgotten that this was a Houston home game, as the travelling Bills fans were louder than the home fans. But then, everything changed in a flash. 

Buffalo failed to keep the pressure on, allowing the Texans to creep back into the game. Houston scored on three straight drives and converted both of their post-touchdown two-point conversions, as they flipped the scoreboard on its head. With their first lead of the game, O’Brien did what all stupid coaches do and dropped into a deep Prevent defense on the final possession of regulation. This gave Allen the breathing room to make big plays, allowing him to move his offense into field goal range in a well-executed, 71 second, game-tying drive. It really baffles me that coaches continue to play this Prevent Defense. Hosuton’s defense hadn’t allowed a point in over 20 minutes of game time, then they drop back into this dopey defense, and give up a field goal to send the game into overtime.

Anyways, the eventual overtime period was a bit of a mess. Houston got the ball first and went three-and-out. Buffalo got the ball back and easily moved into Houston territory. However a brutal 15-yard blindside block penalty took them out of Houston territory and effectively ended their drive. The Texans got the ball back. They drove down the field. Watson made an insane escape move. And the Texans won in dramatic fashion. Who would have guessed that it would be the only home victory of the weekend…  

Tennessee Titans (9-7) defeat New England Patriots (12-4), 20-13

What a weird game. The Titans basically dared the Patriots to beat them with their offense, and New England simply couldn’t. Both teams got off to hot starts, as the first three drives of the game all ended in scores. We didn’t know it at the time, but the first half would provide all of the offensive points for the entire game. Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times for 74 yards and Brady posted an abysmal line of 20/37 for 209 yards, as the quarterbacks were simply not the story of the day. That honor belonged to Derrick Henry. 

Henry ran the ball 34 times for 182 yards, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. The vaunted New England defense simply did not have an answer for him. And while all the typical pundits will point to the fact that New England’s inability to stop the run is what led to their downfall, that’s simply not true! The Titans defense is what truly led to this victory. If anything, this game served as just another example of how the running game is not nearly as effective as a good passing game in the modern era of football. Even with one of the best running performances in playoff history, Tennessee was unable to score an offensive point in the second half. If the Titans defense hadn’t been 100% lockdown in the second half, Tennessee would have needed to actually score points, something that they were completely unable to do in the second half. 

And even with all that being said, sometimes a game can come down to just a couple of key decisions, which brings me to my last point. Was it really the right decision for New England to punt on 4th and 4 from their own 37 with 3:10 left in the game? Just seems like the Patriots of old would have gone for it. Instead they punted the ball to arguably the best running back in football, and he delivered the knockout blow. I know Brady and the offense have not been nearly as effective this season as in years past, but you gotta think that going for it would have been the right call there. If you can’t trust your offense to get 4 yards, then maybe you don’t deserve to win anyways. 

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) defeat New Orleans Saints (13-3), 26-20 (OT)

In the biggest upset of the weekend, the Vikings defeated the Saints in overtime, as Minnesota was barely able to hold off a furious New Orleans comeback attempt. This one was a bit hard to explain. You could say that the Saints just fell short when it counted most, but that would imply that they were the better team and just got unlucky. I’m not sure that’s true! The Saints looked second best all day, and in the end the final result seemed just. Brees was efficient but ineffective, thanks in part to the Vikings defense pressuring him into two uncharacteristic turnovers. Kamara and Murray were held to a total of 42 yards on 12 carries, which makes you wonder whether or not they should have been more involved. And Lutz missed a kick that he usually makes, as his 43-yard attempt to end the first half sailed wide right. 

But of course, the narrative of this recap may have been quite different had New Orleans got the ball first in overtime. The Saints were on a wild comeback tear and had all the momentum on their side. However, the offense never touched the ball in overtime, as Cousins led Minnesota on maybe his most impressive (and most important) drive of the season, culminating in a memorable touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph. 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) defeat Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), 17-9

In the cruelest twist of fate, Wentz suffered a game-ending (and ultimately season-ending) concussion in the first quarter of his first ever playoff game. Two seasons removed from watching from the sidelines while his Philadelphia Eagles won a Super Bowl, it seemed that Wentz was finally going to get his opportunity to prove he can win in the playoffs, too. Instead, on Wentz’s fourth snap of the game, he was hit in the head as he went to the ground, trying to escape a sack. Three plays later he was removed from the game, as the effects of the concussion took hold of him. Enter Josh McCown, who coincidentally was also playing in his first playoff game of his journeyman career. On the surface, McCown’s game looked bad, as he was unable to lead a single touchdown drive. However, maybe it was just a bit of bad luck, as he was able to move the Eagles to within Seattle’s 30-yard line five times. Could Wentz have finished the job had he still been in the game? I guess we’ll never know.  

On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s offense was barely passable. Wilson had a good but not great game. The run game was non-existent, as Lynch and Homer combined for 19 pitiful yards (though Beast Mode did find the end zone for the second straight week). And DK Metcalf… was crazy good. Metcalf was Wilson’s go-to receiver throughout the game, including on the game-clinching play when Wilson found Metcalf deep for the final fist down. At only 22 years old, Metcalf is quickly becoming one of the strongest NFL prospects in the league. Ultimately the game finished 17-9, which was the exact same score as the previous meeting between these two teams in Week 12. Seems like I should have been able to predict that...

Speaking of predictions, all of my Divisional Round picks will be coming later this week. It’s already Thursday… I should hurry up! Stay tuned…