Thursday, September 6, 2018

2018 NFL Season Preview Summary

All eight season previews are complete! Check out the aggregated Final Standings below. If you want the full preview for each division, or just one in particular, scroll down to the Divisional Season Previews section, and click on your desired link. And finally, at the bottom of the post, you can find my Super Bowl LIII Prediction.

Final Standings Prediction (Playoff Teams are in Bold)


Divisional Season Previews

AFC

NFC 
Super Bowl LIII Prediction

While I always feel a little guilty about spoiling the ending of the NFL season for all you fans, I do it anyways because, honesty, I don’t really care about any of you.
In Super Bowl LIII…
The Minnesota Vikings will defeat the Houston Texans, 31-20.
That’s right! Two teams who have never tasted Super Bowl glory will battle it out in Atlanta for the right to bring home their respective city’s first Lombardi Trophy. This will be Houston’s first Super Bowl appearance and Minnesota’s fifth. I’ll take the more experienced team in this bout (even if that experience is just losing in the 1970s). Rejoice Minneapolis! Your time has finally come.

So, there you have it. All my predictions for the upcoming season, which is now only a few hours away, are complete! And while you already know how the season will end for all 32 NFL teams, it might still be worth watching because sometimes even the most brilliant of football minds make a mistake or two. Enjoy the season!

2018 NFL Season Preview: NFC East

The NFC East is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. The Eagles are Super Bowl winning frauds, destined for a relapse. The Cowboys will probably be good again, but who cares. Washington has turned to Alex Smith to revitalize their stagnant franchise. And Eli Manning refuses to go away, preventing the Giants from finally moving on past his dopey mistake-laden football career. This division is made up of the most unlikable teams in the entire NFL. Hopefully they all miss the playoffs. Unfortunately, that is impossible. With that in mind, for one final time, I ask… So, who will win this horrible division?

Dallas Cowboys (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 10-6
Prescott, Elliot, and the Cowboys fell just short of the playoffs last season in a tough NFC conference. While last year was a solid season for Dallas, if any unit is to take blame for missing the playoffs, it would have to be Prescott and the passing game. Elliot was his usual self, flourishing behind the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line, but Prescott was simply unable to replicate his rookie year success. In his sophomore year, Prescott was much more turnover prone, as he clearly tried to extend himself past his abilities. For the third year quarterback, the upcoming season will be very telling of his future potential. Unfortunately, the offseason was not kind to Prescott, as his top two receiving threats are no longer on the team. Jason Witten decided to retire, and the Cowboys chose to release Dez Bryant. Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, and Cole Beasley will be forced to fill the voids left by those two great Dallas receivers.

Still, even with some new faces on offense, I like this team’s chances of returning to the playoffs. The defense was good last season, led by standout defensive end, Demarcus Lawrence and their excellent linebacker, Sean Lee. If the rest of this division has the down year that I am predicting, the Cowboys are in great position to retake the NFC East and clinch another trip to the postseason.

Philadelphia Eagles (Last Season: 13-3)
2018 Prediction: 9-7
There is simply no way the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions. This team is perfectly primed for a complete failure of a season. We all know Nick Foles is a fraud, so there is no way that that same hocus pocus that led this team all the way to the ultimate glory of championship will work again. The offensive weapons are serviceable at best. Their prized quarterback is still injured. And the defense... is quite good. This roster is admittedly talented, but I’ve seen this show before. 

One epic run through the playoffs has not tricked me into believing that this team is the next dynasty. Remember when Joe Flacco and the Ravens ripped through the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl Championship in 2012? Well guess what? They missed the playoffs the very next season, and they have only made the playoffs once since. While Wentz has more potential than a pud like Joe Flacco, I am not a big fan of quarterbacks returning from torn ACLs, especially when that injury was only about nine months ago. If and when Wentz does return this season, I expect some shakey play, due to a lack of confidence on his knee and the massive expectations that will be resting on his shoulders. Philadelphians will argue that they don’t need Wentz, since they have a great backup in Foles. However, call me a skeptic, but I don’t expect Foles to be able to recreate that playoff magic in the 2018 regular season.

The Eagles are ready for a full relapse, and it starts tonight when the Falcons come to Philadelphia, step onto Lincoln Financial Field, and rip this team to shreds, ruining their Super Bowl celebration.

Washington Redskins (Last Season: 7-9)
2018 Prediction: 7-9
Alex Smith deserves better. Over the last six seasons, Alex Smith has gone 69-31-1. That’s very good! However, all he has to show for it is 1 playoff win and no appreciation from his former GMs. After going 13-3 in 2012 and after starting 2013 with a record of 6-2-1, the Niners replaced Smith with Colin Kaepernick, who eventually led the Niners to an NFC Championship. After that season, Smith was shipped off to Kansas City, where he continued to win. After three straight playoff appearances, Smith was once again sent packing, this time to Washington. So, how do I expect him to fare in the Nation’s capital? Fine, I guess. Smith has never been the focal point of any team, but he has an incredible knack for not turning the ball over. Since 2011, Smith has not thrown double digit interceptions in a single season. That’s impressive! However, the knock on Smith will always be his low counts for touchdowns and yards. Smith will not win you games, but he certainly won’t lose a game for you either.

So, who are the other players that will help Smith in his role of “not losing?” Wide receiver is a little thin for Washington, with Crowder and Richardson leading the charge. Tight End is strong, as Jordan Reed has proven to be one of the best in the game. And running back is solid, with Adrian Peterson (if he can still play), and a great passing down back in Chris Thompson. So, the offense is serviceable. On the defensive side of the ball, Norman is still one of the better cornerbacks in the league, and Smith and Kerrigan are one of the strongest linebacker duos around. Still, I foresee the Redskins having trouble staying in playoff contention this season. Going forward, I see the most potential on the defensive side of the ball, so if Washington hopes to challenge for the NFC East crown anytime soon, they will most likely have to do it through that unit.

New York Giants (Last Season: 3-13)
2018 Prediction: 6-10
Eli Manning must be immortal or something. After 14 seasons of mediocrity, the Giants refuse to move on. During his (impressively) long career, Eli has amassed a record of 111-103. Over those 14 seasons, he has finished with a winning record 7 times, a losing record 5 times, and an 8-8 record 2 times. That’s quite average. In defense of Eli, he has amassed an impressive playoff record of 8-4, and he has made each of those wins count, not wasting playoff victories on non-Super Bowl winning seasons. In every Eli-led playoffs, the Giants have either been eliminated in the first round or won the Super Bowl. There is no in between. And of course, the greatest compliment we can give to Peyton’s little brother is that he was able to stop the Patriots from winning two additional Super Bowls. For that, the country will be forever indebted to him.

However, with regards to this season, there is little hope for the Giants. New York finished 31st in overall defense last season, as they were unable to slow down any opponents all season. Per Pro Football Focus, the offensive line ranks 25th in the league going into the 2018 season. So, even with the return of Odell Beckham Jr. and the addition of Saquon Barkley, I expect the offense to struggle. If you are expecting Barkley to have a smooth transition into the league like Ezekiel Elliot did last year, you are in for a surprise. Elliot entered the league in a dream situation, behind one of the best offensive lines in the game. Barkley will not have that luxury. Similarly, Beckham can make as many spectacular catches as he wants, but if Eli does not have time in the pocket, we are going to see the usual litany of sacks and interceptions from the most mistake-prone quarterback in NFL history. There is certainly hope for the future in New York, but until they find Eli’s predecessor, I don’t believe they will be true playoff contenders in the NFC.

So, as you can see, the NFC East, and apparently every other division, is horrible! What a revelation! Good luck to all the horrible teams in all the horrible divisions this season.



2018 NFL Season Preview: NFC South

The NFC South is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. Other than the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons, this division simply has no talent, especially at the quarterback position. Sure the Panthers have Newton, the Saints have Brees, and the Falcons have Ryan, but only two of those quarterbacks have won a regular season MVP in the last three seasons, and the one that didn’t is almost certain to become the NFL’s all-time passing yards leader this year.  Also, the other team is the Bucs, who are just horrible.

And I know that this division led the league in win percentage last season, but that means nothing in 2018! Hmmm… now that I think about it, maybe this division is actually pretty good. With three legitimate contenders in the mix, it is anyone’s guess who will the competitive NFC South... So, who will win this horrible division?  

Carolina Panthers (Last Season: 11-5)
2018 Prediction: 11-5
Prepare for the return of Super Cam. During the two years since his MVP season in 2016, Cam has not been very good. Injuries to himself and his favorite offensive weapons have made it tough on the Carolina quarterback recently. So, why do I think this year will be different? Simply, Cam seems to be much healthier this year, and he has a very talented group of skill players at his disposal. McCaffrey is poised for a big year. CJ Anderson is a nice addition to the backfield. Moore looks like a potential great NFL wide receiver. Funchess is entering his prime. And Greg Olsen continues to be the rock of the Carolina receiving corps and the security blanket that every great quarterback loves.

The defense is a top tier unit, led by the impressive linebacker duo of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis (though Davis is suspended for the first four games of the season). During Davis's aforementioned suspension, Shaq Thompson will get the chance to showcase his abilities, as the Panthers have high hopes for their young stud linebacker. On the defensive line, Carolina beefed up with the addition of Dontari Poe, which should help to create a consistent pass rush and clog up running lanes. The Panthers are primed for another great season, as they have retained most of last season’s talent. The only question is, can they win the stacked NFC South?

New Orleans Saints (Last Season: 11-5)
2018 Prediction: 10-6
Brees continues to shine into his golden years. At the moment, he is a mere 1,496 yards away from setting the all-time mark in the NFL. Over his illustrious 16 year career as a starter, he has led the league in passing yards seven times. And now, at 39 years old, he will look to lead the Saints to the playoffs for the seventh time in 13 tries. While Brees is still playing at a high level, the Saints offense is not as good as it has been in the past. Fortunately for New Orleans, their defense has begun to peak at just the right time, keeping the Saints’ window of opportunity open for just a little longer.

After finishing as the worst and second worst scoring defenses in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the Saints have finally appeared to figure things out, as they finished tenth in scoring defense last year. New Orleans finally has a defense that can help supplement the consistently solid offense. With Kamara, Ingram, Thomas, Gin, and Meredith, this offense appears to have the weapons to help Brees hold off retirement for as long as possible. And, even if Brees believes that he has another few years of football left in him, the Saints are running out of time to put together another Super Bowl run before he finally retires. This season might be Brees’ last chance to grab his second Lombardi Trophy, which would help cement his place as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Atlanta Falcons (Last Season: 10-6)
2018 Prediction: 10-6
Last season, Matt Ryan and the offense were nowhere near as good as they were in 2016, but this Atlanta team still managed to scrounge together ten wins. While I only predict that they will repeat last season’s win total, I expect improvements, particularly along the offensive front. While the players are mostly the same, the main reason I expect a bounce back year for the offense is that Ryan has now had a full year to learn Sarkisian’s offense. After Shanahan left for a head coaching job with the Niners, Ryan had to learn a new offensive system. Obviously, it did not take with the former MVP quickly, as he regressed from a 38/7 TD/INT season to a 20/12 season. That’s a huge regression in the passing game for a team that saw almost no offensive players lost during the previous offseason.

The good news from last year is that even with such a poor passing season, the defense was able to hold firm and keep Atlanta competitive in a very tough division. The bad news is that this division has not gotten any weaker. So, in order to stay competitive, the defense will have to continue to play well, and the offense will have to return to their 2018 form. With Freeman, Jones, and Coleman still in place, this offense certainly has the firepower to fight for playoff berth. Now, can they win the critical divisional games that will be crucial to them clinching their third straight playoff appearance?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Season: 5-11)
2018 Prediction: 5-11
This team is awful. And to make matters worse, they play in what appears to be the toughest division in the NFL. And to make matters EVEN WORSE, their quarterback is Jameis Winston. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, whether or not this franchise succeeds in the next number of seasons will most likely ride on the shoulders of their young quarterback. The only good (?) news for Tampa Bay is that they will start the first three games of this season with Fitzpatrick under Center, who I actually think is the better option at quarterback. As you already know, Winston will be suspended to start the season because he GROPED AN UBER DRIVER. Look, with the the recent #metoo movement, we now realize that men are disgusting and that powerful men are generally even more disgusting, so this behavior can’t surprise anyone, but it is still shocking to read about.

The only question now is whether or not the Bucs will even go back to Winston when he returns from suspension. Winston is a turnover machine, a bad teammate, and a worse person. The fact that Tampa Bay has sheltered him for this long is amazing. Once they finally take the training wheels off, I expect his career to unravel, and, unfortunately for Winston, that unraveling may have already begun. While the offense is in disarray due to question marks at quarterback, the defense is no better. Last season, Tampa Bay finished dead last in overall defense. Now, in fairness, the Bucs play in arguably the toughest offensive division in the NFL, so it is not surprising to see them at the bottom. Still, the defense has a lot of improving to do if Tampa Bay hopes to be competitive at all this season. With such grim hopes of success for the coming years, the only interest I have in this team is if we are witnessing the end of Winston.

So, as you can see, the NFC South is horrible. I wonder if the NFC East is any good…



Wednesday, September 5, 2018

2018 NFL Season Preview: NFC North

The NFC North is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. Sure, the Vikings are great and have only improved over the off-season, but take a look at the rest of this sorry division! The Packers are constantly one shoulder injury away from mediocrity. The Lions can never seem to figure it out for more than a few games at a time. And the Bears are consistently sabotaging themselves, setting up their wide-eyed, inexperienced quarterback for certain failure. So, who will win this horrible division?

Minnesota Vikings (Last Season: 13-3)
2018 Prediction: 12-4
The Vikings are very good. Last season they were very good. This off-season,they got better. In 2017, an early season injury to Bradford seemed to foreshadow doom for the Vikings. However, instead of wallowing in their misery, Minnesota established themselves as a defensive juggernaut, resulting in 13 wins. Even with perennial backup Case Keenum throwing the ball, Minnesota found themselves dominating games.

Generally, after winning 13 games in a season, not many changes need to be made. However, Minnesota, recognizing where they were weak, replaced Keenum with the top player on the free agency market, Kirk Cousins. Cousins steps into both an excellent and nightmarish situation. The obvious positive is that few quarterbacks join a team with so much established talent. Once Cousins masters the offense, he should be able to use his abilities to maximize offensive productivity. With the confidence of an incredibly talented defense working on his side, Cousins won’t have to force anything on offense. The Vikings are so good that even a game manager would be enough for them to succeed; however, to fully reach their potential, Cousins must go beyond that.

As for the negatives of this seemingly idyllic situation… the pressure could not be greater for Cousins. Expectations are incredibly high. And to make matters worse, three of Minnesota’s first five games are on the road against the Packers, Rams, and Eagles. Even at their best, Minnesota could very easily drop all three of those. If the Vikings begin to doubt whether or not moving on from Keenum was a good idea, things in Minnesota could unravel quickly. As long as the Vikings remain focused on their long term goal of a Super Bowl Championship, this team should do just fine.

Green Bay Packers (Last Season: 7-9)
2018 Prediction: 10-6
For the first time in a long time, the Packers are not the favorites to win the NFC North. While expectations are still high for Green Bay, their intra-divisional adversary in Minnesota may be the best team in the NFL. Still, when you have one of the best players in the game playing quarterback for your team, the expectation is that you will win your division. So, once again, assuming Rodgers is healthy, that will be the expectations for this Packers team.

Over the eight seasons where Rodgers was healthy, only once have the Rodgers-led Packers not won at least 10 games. The only time they failed to do so was during Rodgers’ first year as a starter in 2008. While a stat like that is sure to stir up some confidence in Packer fans, there is also plenty to be concerned about with regards to this team. Even though their quarterback is one of the best in the league, he is a decent bit past his prime. The defense is one of the softer units in the league, as they finished 26th in scoring last season. And their wide receivers and running backs form one of the weakest groups in the league, especially after seeing the departure of one of the franchise’s most reliable wide receiver targets in history, Jordy Nelson. That being said, a healthy Rodgers has the ability to elevate even the most limited teams, so I expect them to challenge Minnesota for the division up until the last couple weeks of the season. 

Detroit Lions (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 6-10
I can never figure this team out. Sometimes the defense is good. Sometimes it is atrocious. Sometimes Stafford seems competent. Sometimes he is utter garbage. Sometimes there is a running game. Most of the times there is not. Two things are constant though. This team wants to throw the ball a lot, and Jim Bob Cooter is the most ridiculous coach’s name in the league. That being said, you have got to hand it to Cooter, he sure knows how to lead a good passing game.

While I don’t think that poorly of Detroit, I am low on them for the simple fact that the two teams at the top of this division are just so much better. Beyond the 2018 season, I believe that the outlook for the Lions is positive. They have focused on improving the running game and offensive line over the past couple of years, and I expect that to pay dividends soon. With that in mind, if the Lions want to make serious strides towards battling for a playoff spot, they will need to address their defensive weaknesses. Ansah and Slay are both great; however, as they begin to move past their prime, Detroit will have to find a way to add talent to their already thin defense. The Lions are not far away from being good, I just don’t see them making the jump this season.


Chicago Bears (Last Season: 5-11)
2018 Prediction: 6-10
Mitchell Trubisky is trash. In 12 games last season, Trubisky threw 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. In such a pass-heavy NFL, those numbers are atrocious. Delusional Chicago fans will laud how well he protected the ball, but don’t be fooled. This guy is a conservative passer on a nothing offense. Also, thanks to an idiotic 2016 offseason, the Bears have two quarterbacks being paid starter salaries. Of course, one of those players, Mike Glennon, is not actually on the roster anymore.

Allen Robinson will hope to make Trubisky’s transition to the NFL a bit smoother. However, I see this as a tall ask, considering he is the only decent receiver on the roster, which will probably allow defenses to focus most of their attention on him on every pass play. On the ground, Jordan Howard is a beast, but he can only do so much on his own. On the defensive side of the ball, this team is very strong, with lots of young talent on both the defensive line and in the secondary. If the Bears actually begin to improve in the future, it will be through their defense. However, with such limited talent on offense, I don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

On a side not, I heard that the Bears defensive line saw some small improvements this offseason. That should probably be helpful.



So, as you can see, the NFC North is horrible. I wonder if the NFC South is any good…

2018 NFL Season Preview: NFC West

The NFC West is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. After one decent season, everyone thinks McVay’s revamped Rams are going to be the next dynasty (spoiler, they’re not!). The Seahawks have been slowly drifting towards irrelevance, as their once great defense continues to deteriorate from their past glory. The 49ers have put all of their hope into one handsome quarterback. And the window for success has finally closed on the Cardinals. It’s slim pickings in the West this year, but I guess I still have to ask… So, who will win this horrible division?

Los Angeles Rams (Last Season: 11-5)
2018 Prediction: 11-5
The defense was great last season. The offense was incredible. The roster is young. And the coach is innovative. There is little reason to think the Rams can’t at least repeat last season’s performance. The impressive thing about the Rams in 2017 is that they were probably even better than their 11-5 record would indicate. Of their five losses, only two were by more than a single score. One of those was against the Vikings in Minnesota (their only road loss of the season), and the other was during their meaningless Week 17 game, in which they rested all their starters. The Rams had the third best point differential in the league, behind only the Patriots and Eagles, and they almost certainly would have led the league in that category had they not virtually forfeited their Week 17 game.

Still, I’m hesitant to predict that they will improve upon last season’s 11 wins. The NFL is a parity driven league, and the Rams’ signal caller has still only played one full season in the NFL. This will be a critical year for Goff. Being successful for one season is much easier than doing it for multiple seasons in a row.  Fortunately for him, the offense still features weapons such as Gurly, Cooks, Cupp, and Woods. While the receivers are certainly not the best in the league, Gurly is definitely one of the best running backs in the league. Both confidence and expectations will be high in Los Angeles this season.

San Francisco 49ers (Last Season: 6-10)
2018 Prediction: 9-7
Fine, I’ll get on the hype train. Well, I think I’ll keep one leg dangling off the train for the moment. I’m not ready to predict that the Niners will make the playoffs, but I am happy to at least put them back in contention. Jimmy G certainly showed that he could play last season, but now we need to see if he can continue his impressive start to his NFL career against higher quality teams. During San Francisco’s 5 game winning streak which ended their 2017 campaign, they were able to defeat Bears, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Rams. While the wins against the Jaguars and Titans were somewhat impressive (assuming you respect the AFC South), the other three against the horrible Bears, Texans, and second string Rams were not impressive at all. Of course, if Garoppolo leads the Niners to a victory in Minnesota in Week 1, I may have to change my tune. Until then, I am not ready to go all in on Jimmy G.

Beyond the quarterback, this team has some unresolved issues. Their star running back McKinnon just went down with a season-ending knee injury, which leaves the running game in the hands of a washed up Alfred Morris and a questionably talented Matt Breida. On the defensive side of the ball, while the Niners have made some serious improvements, some of those improvements come with risk. The main concern is Foster, who is an incredible talent; however, he will be suspended for at least two games to start the season. The rest of the defense has some serious potential, but for the most part, their ability remains a relative unknown for San Francisco. That being said, with young talent and a quarterback that can be relied upon, this team is certainly headed in the right direction.

Seattle Seahawks (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 7-9
The Seahawks are slowly crumbling back into nothingness. The Legion of Boom is dead, as the defense is nearly unrecognizable from its heyday. Russell Wilson continues to run for his life, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And this team still can’t figure out how to run the ball. Last season, Mike Davis led all Seattle running backs with 240 rushing yards. 240! In the history of the NFL, 18 running backs have rushed for more yards than that IN A SINGLE GAME. As you may have guessed, Seattle’s leading rusher last year was Wilson with 586 yards.

Wilson has certainly proven that he is an incredible dual threat quarterback, but if he continues to receive no help from his running backs, this offense is doomed. In past years, the Seahawks could at least rely on their incredible defense to pick up the slack; however, their defense is no longer the dominant unit that it once was. Last season, Seattle ranked 13th in scoring defense and 11th in overall defense. That’s pretty mediocre. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, this is a consequence of how the NFL’s structure naturally forces parity upon the league. During Seattle’s best years, Wilson, along with many prominent defensive players, were on very team-friendly deals, relative to their value. Once the rookie deals and undervalued contracts ended, the team began to run out of cap room to attract/keep top talent. So, Seattle has slowly faded away, returning to the form of an average team. With a quarterback like Wilson though, they should be able to remain in at least the middle tier of teams. However, a couple bad games could see them completely tumble out of playoff contention.

Arizona Cardinals (Last Season: 8-8)
2018 Prediction: 4-12
So begins the rebuild of the Arizona Cardinals. I like what this team is setting up to do, but I think the benefits are still at least a year away. The Cardinals will smartly start Sam Bradford at quarterback this season, giving Rosen some time to learn the offense and adjust to the speed of the NFL, without losing all of his confidence during what is sure to be an atrocious season for Arizona. If you have read my blog before, you know that I am a strong proponent of letting your rookie quarterback sit for the first year of his NFL career, and that is no different with the Cardinals. Rosen appears to have some great potential, but there is simply no reason to let him get thrown around by superior teams all season.

One of the main reasons that I like Arizona’s chances at having near-future success is that they finished with the 6th best overall defense in the NFL last season. This is a young and talented defensive side that is currently excelling. If the defense can continue to improve over the next couple of seasons, it may give the offense enough time to develop into a respectable unit. Fortunately, the Cardinals feature many emerging talents on the offensive side of the ball, such as Josh Rosen, David Johnson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and DJ Humphries. A quarterback certainly doesn’t make the whole team, but I will say that I am looking forward to what Josh Rosen can do with this solid roster in the future. With this much talent around him, I think he will probably have a smooth transition into the NFL when he eventually makes his first start.

So, as you can see, the NFC West is horrible. I wonder if the NFC North is any good…

2018 NFL Season Preview: AFC East


The AFC East is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. Sure the Patriots are the best team in the league for the 30th year in a row, but the rest of this division is horrid. The Dolphins live in a constant state of mediocrity, and the Bill and Jets are just phoning it in until Brady retires. Every season, the AFC East poses the question, “Why even bother watching the regular season this year?” After so many years of watching the Brady/Belichick machine, I still have no answer to that question. So, who will win this horrible division? Lol, like I even have to ask...

New England Patriots (Last Season: 13-3)
2018 Prediction: 12-4
There is no team in this division that has the capability of beating the Patriots. A 6-0 division record is basically assured. I would not be surprised if this division were wrapped up by Week 10, as this is the worst that the AFC East has been in quite some time. If Belichick is smart, he will rest his starters until Week 16, since the regular season is effectively just a prolonged preseason for the team with the easiest path to the playoffs. I guess homefield advantage throughout the playoffs is nice, but wouldn’t it be more advantageous to have no injuries and an entire roster of fresh players at your disposal come January? Just saying Bill, maybe you should take my advice. If you really want Brady to play until he is 50, you may need to rest him for at least half of all future regular season games. Even without Brady, the Patriots would probably find a way to win those games anyways, as they have shown the ability to do so in the past. 

For now, the division waits in hibernation until the Belichick/Brady era finally ends. Until then, the Patriots may as well book their Conference Championship game in Foxborough, since there is very little stopping them from reaching that point.


Miami Dolphins (Last Season: 6-10)
2018 Prediction: 8-8
The return of Ryan Tannehill means a return to mediocrity. No one is better at maintaining a .500 record than Tannehill and his Dolphins. I’ve pulled this stat before, but I like it so much that I’ll do it again. Over his career, Tannehill is nearly a perfect .500, currently sitting at 37-40. Over his first five seasons in the league, his records have been 7-9, 8-8, 8-8, 6-10, & 8-5. That’s mediocre! While his trajectory currently looks good, I’m not convinced, so I’ll stick with the tried and true method of predicting another .500 season for Miami and Tannehill.

I’m still pretty confused about why Miami even bothered to bring in the incredibly unmotivated Jay Cutler to lead this subpar team to another disappointing finish last season. For his entire career, Cutler has been considered a solid quarterback, which baffles me because his only quality stat is Games Started. Chicago put up with him for so long that they basically threw away eight years. Over eight seasons, Cutler amassed a record of 51-51 (.500!) with Chicago, going 1-1 (.500!) in the playoffs. And still, Miami thought that it would be beneficial to salvage their already lost season by bringing in an even more mediocre quarterback, hoping to win a a couple extra games. As you know, the Dolphins managed six meaningless wins last season. I know it's easy to say in retrospect, but bringing in Cutler to salvage six wins was absolutely pointless. However, in defense of Miami's decision, virtually all of their seasons are pointless.


New York Jets (Last Season: 5-11)
2018 Prediction: 5-11
The Jets are simply not interested in challenging for the division until Brady has retired. Come Monday night, Darnold will be starting in his first NFL game, and all that New York can hope for is that he survives. There is rarely a benefit to starting a rookie quarterback, as that first year is almost always rough, but the Jets don’t care. As far as New York sees it, Darnold just needs to be primed for success when Brady retires in ten years. Only then will the Jets make a real push to win games.

As easy as it is to predict that the Jets will suck (they always do), I still love this franchise. The New York Jets are such a historically self-deprecating team. From Geno Smith having his jaw broken by a teammate’s preseason sucker punch, to Rex Ryan being allowed to coach this team for SIX SEASONS, the Jets will always provide wonderful moments that can allow me to say, “well at least I’m not a Jets fan.” With that being said, nothing makes me happier about the Jets than one miraculous Thanksgiving Day play in 2012. I think we all still remember where we were when we saw Mark Sanchez commit the greatest NFL play of all time, the Butt Fumble. I love watching that damn play. I can’t believe it was six whole years ago...

Buffalo Bills (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 4-12
This franchise deserves nothing good. After spending 3 seasons of performing the painstakingly difficult task of keeping the Bills out of the gutter, Buffalo thanked Tyrod Taylor by booting him out of town. The Bills, one of the most hopeless franchises in the league, finally made the playoffs last year for the first time since 1999. And their response? Blow it up. Break down the roster and start over. It’s hard to feel bad for this team, as they simply just don’t understand how to succeed. They finally had a steady option at quarterback to build around, and they decided to instead start over.

As you may have already heard, the Bills will be starting NATHAN PETERMAN in this season's opener. That’s right, Nathan Peterman. If that name sounds familiar it is because Peterman was the centerpiece for one of the greatest midseason quarterback decision gaffes in NFL history. With Taylor playing well enough to keep the Bills in playoff contention for the first nine games of the season (they were 5-4 at the time), Sean McDermott decided that Week 10 would be an ideal time to throw his rookie quarterback into the fire. Peterman... did not play well. His performance was a huge disappointment, as he became only the 4th quarterback in NFL history to throw 5 interceptions (on only 14 attempts!) in a single half of football. Taylor took over for Peterman in the 3rd quarter with the game already completely out of reach.

So, congratulations Buffalo, you get a full season of Peterman now! Well, in reality, the Bills will probably only get a few weeks of Peterman. After his inevitable 0-4 start, it will be Josh Allen’s turn to have his confidence totally shattered by this franchise. In short, everything involving the Buffalo Bills is hopeless. It won't be long before Buffalo's front office realizes how good they had it with Taylor. After another inevitable failure of a season, the Bills will be wishing with all their might that they had Taylor back behind Center, and that’s exactly what this sad, sad franchise deserves.

So, as you can see, the AFC East is horrible. I wonder if the NFC West is any good…


Tuesday, September 4, 2018

2018 NFL Season Preview: AFC South

The AFC South is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. The Texans should be decent again with the return of a competent quarterback. However, the rest of the division is garbage. The Jaguars are your classic one-hit wonder. The Colts are so bad that even a healthy Andrew Luck won’t be able to save them. And the Titans are mediocre garbage. So, who will win this horrible division?

Houston Texans (Last Season: 4-12)
2018 Prediction: 11-5
An easy choice for a “worst-to-first” candidate, the Texans might actually be worth a damn this season. The defense is one of the best in the business, and the offense finally seems to be coming together, as a healthy Watson may be all it takes to propel this team to a Conference Championship game. Of course, one should exhibit caution when jumping on the Texan hype train, since Watson’s success has only been in a small sample size. However, even a mediocre quarterback can be made to look incredible when Deandre Hopkins is coming down with ridiculous catches, so anything remotely close to Watson’s previous success should be enough to keep this offense scoring.

As for the defense, a healthy J.J. Watt means a near unstoppable pass rush. Even if teams choose to double the ex-defensive player of the year, Clowney ad Mercilus will still be able to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans have the potential to be great this season. If Watson’s six NFL starts were indicative of his true ability, and not just a fluke, Houston should be considered a serious Super Bowl contender.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Season: 10-6)
2018 Prediction: 9-7
Last season, the Jaguars were one bad call (or one full quarter of horrible play-calling) away from making it to the Super Bowl, so it would be unfair of me to be too hard them, but I can try! Bortles is garbage, they lost Allen Robinson to the Bears, and their next best receiver just went down with as season-ending knee injury. Other than relying on the incredible ability of Leonard Fournette, how is this team supposed to score any points?

Fortunately for Jacksonville, the defense is still awesome, so there is certainly still hope, but I find it hard to believe that the Jaguars are going to replicate their impressive performance from last year. Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey lead an incredible defensive unit that is sure to keep them in every game, but if Bortles can’t score any points, is there really any hope for this team? Last season may be the best Jaguar team that we see for quite some time, and they were certainly not world-beaters. Ten regular season wins is good but certainly not unbelievably impressive, especially when you consider the fact that one of their losses was against the horrid Jets.

Indianapolis Colts (Last Season: 4-12)
2018 Prediction: 6-10
Andrew Luck. Those are the only two words that matter to the Colts. Their season rests on his health. However, even with a healthy Luck, I am concerned about whether or not this team can generate any consistency on either side of the ball. Throughout Luck’s career in Indianapolis, he has been burdened with a weak offensive line, forcing him to rush his throws and take lots of hits. Now, with Luck potentially back for a full season, the Colts are still severely lacking talent on offense. The backfield is a mess, and Hilton is the only receiver with big play-making abilities.

It almost seems cruel to bring Luck back into such a lousy situation. The only hope for Indy is that maybe a decent season will attract top players to consider moving out to Indiana to play with a premier talent at quarterback. If they are unable to put even a decent season together, they may be stuck at the bottom of the AFC for multiple years to come.

Tennessee Titans (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 6-10
Does anyone remember the last time the Titans finished a season with double digit wins? No one? That’s what I thought. It’s been 10 seasons since Tennessee won more than 9 games in a season, back in their very successful 2008 campaign, where they finished 13-3 (though they lost to the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs that season). While that is definitely not the longest such streak of futility in this league, it is certainly not good.

Fortunately for Titan fans, the last two seasons have resulted in nine win seasons. So, why do I think they will return to losing ways this season? Well, it is pretty simple. Last year, playing in a division with zero quality quarterbacks, the Titans only managed nine wins. Two teams in the AFC South finished at 4-12 last year, and Tennessee was still only able to record nine victories. That’s pretty futile. So, after an offseason that saw little change to the roster, I expect this team to return to a more appropriately disappointing form. Mariota is fine, but he still hasn’t proven himself to be good enough to lead a mediocre side like Tennessee to great heights. Instead, I expect Mariota’s career to mirror that of an Andy Dalton, always struggling to win some games with the occasional playoff appearance.

So, as you can see, the AFC South is horrible. I wonder if the AFC East is any good…