Thursday, September 5, 2019

2019 NFL Season Preview

Annnnnddddd… Submit. BOOM! I got this season preview completed TOTALLY ON TIME! Way to go, me! Now, what took me so long? Well…

I have a fear. Maybe calling it a fear is a bit of an exaggeration. I guess it’s a concern. No, that’s still not right… Hmmm, let’s call it a conundrum. So, here’s my conundrum. 

The NFL sucks. The owners are all greedy assholes who don’t give a shit about their fans. The players are treated like modern-day gladiators, totally dispensable, risking their physical well-being every time they step on the field. The product has begun to deteriorate, as every game is marred by an incessant number of stoppages for video reviews and penalty calls (and now with the added bonus of reviewable penalty calls). So, how can I still justify supporting this league? Why do I keep coming back every damn Fall to watch more damn football?

It’s because I’m a fanatic. I’m part of the problem. It’s the fanatics like me that keep the machine going. I’m a fairly logical person, and I realize that I have no good reason to be entertained by the NFL, but here I am. I plan to go to at least five Raider games this year, and I will probably watch football every Sunday from now until February. I mean, think about it. I plan on going to five Raider games this season. What's wrong with me?

The Raiders. A team that is leaving Oakland so that they can get a publicly subsidized stadium in Las Vegas. The Raiders, who have basically said “Fuck you” to all the long-time Oakland fans. The Raiders, who hired a washed-up buffoon of a coach. The Raiders, who traded away my favorite player in the league for peanuts. The Raiders, who could give two shits about the fans like me who are sitting in the cheap seats. The Raiders, who only care about the bottom line. The Raiders. A team that I am only a fan of because my best friend when I was 8 years old was a Raider fan. The Raiders. A team that should mean nothing to me. The Raiders. A team I obsessed over as a kid. The Raiders. The Silver and Black. The Raiders. The renegades of the NFL. The Raiders... Goddamnit, I love watching them. Win or lose, I am fully commited to this illogical emotional investment, and it sickens me. The NFL is my guilty pleasure, and the Raiders are my muse. 

And even if the Raiders don’t whet my appetite enough this year. Even when the Raiders start the season 1-6 (hopefully they’re that good), I’ll still have my fantasy football teams to entertain me. Ahhh, fantasy football. Talk about dehumanizing the players! With fantasy football, all we care about is the bets made, the fantasy stats, the bragging rights. We cheer injuries when it means the player on our fantasy team will now be the starter. We “boo” our own team when the wrong player scores a touchdown. We may as well be watching machines. The product would be nearly the same. 

The NFL is bad. Football is bad. But I’ll still watch it all, even knowing it’s all bad. As a relatively intelligent person, it makes no sense for me to watch this league or this sport, but I still do it. Now, think of all the morons who are just as stupidly fanatical for their team as I am. And that right there is why the NFL works. That’s why no amount of mistreating former players, mistreating current players, greed, scandals, racism, or blindly stupid policies will scare away the fans. Their emotional investment is too deep. Football is built too deep into our culture. 

So, with all that in mind, please forgive me if I wasn’t feeling as enthusiastic this year about doing a full breakdown of all 32 NFL teams. I have decided to keep my analysis of each team brief and to the point. Hopefully it comes off as thoughtful rather than lazy. As usual, I’ll start with the AFC West, and work my way in my weird order to the NFC East. Playoff teams are in italics. If you don’t like my writing, there is a graphic below that summarizes my predictions. If you’re one of the odd few that are actually interested in what I have to say, you can find my analysis for each team right after that. Enjoy… even if I’ve already sucked all the fun right out of it. 

2019 NFL Regular Season Predictions



AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (Last Season: 12-4)
2019 Prediction: 12-4
No change for me here at the top of the AFC West. The Chiefs are still the best team in the division and maybe even the best team in the Conference. You could argue that the Chargers are just as talented, but then you remember that the Chiefs get to play with one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, while Los Angeles plays in front of a half-filled Soccer Stadium, where most of the fans are rooting for the Away side anyways. I have no reason to believe that the reigning MVP will be any worse this year. In fact, he may be better. Every year of experience is incredibly valuable in this fast-paced league. Additionally, Mahomes has lost none of his great weapons, including his child-beating speedster Tyreek Hill (until the NFL uncovers the video of him beating his child). 

Los Angeles Chargers (Last Season: 12-4)
2019 Prediction: 11-5 
I guess Phillip Rivers’ golden years still have a chance to produce a Super Bowl Championship. Rivers continues to excel in a league that has taken every measure to make sure their crown jewels, their quarterbacks, are protected from those mean old defensive linemen. With so many rules in place to protect quarterbacks from getting hit, it’s no surprise that quarterbacks are playing longer and longer in the NFL. As for the rest of the offense, I would talk about Melvin Gordon more, but there are more and more analytics everyday showing that running backs are actually less valuable than previously thought. So, I don’t think the holdout will affect the Chargers significantly. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson are fine running backs, and I think Rivers still has this guy named Keenan Allen to throw the ball to. The only question is whether or not Los Angeles will be able to remove Kansas City’s stranglehold on the division. 

Denver Broncos (Last Season: 6-10)
2019 Prediction: 5-11
I ain’t much of a fan of Joe Flacco. He’s fine. However, he’s certainly not the answer to Denver’s horrific offensive woes. Flacco doesn’t exactly have lethal weapons to distribute the ball to, as *looks up Denver's depth chart* they are all relatively unknown (who the hell is DaeSean Hamilton?). The defense will continue to keep them somewhat competitive in games. Von Miller is an absolute beast, and Bradley Chubb is still a promising young linebacker. However, don’t expect the Broncos to be contending for a Division Title any time soon. 

Oakland Raiders (Last Season: 4-12)
2019 Prediction: 4-12
The Raiders are atrocious. This team is more of a reality TV show than a football team, which makes them perfect… for Hard Knocks. The heart-warming story of Richie Incognito overcoming the adversity of having bullied a former teammate into quitting the NFL should make for good television. Similarly, it will be very exciting following how Antonio Brown’s frostbite healed. This season is already turning into an embarrassing disaster. Gruden is a joke who should have stayed in the Monday Night Football booth. I will never forgive him for trading away Khalil Mack. Moves like that are only made by the most arrogant of morons. 


AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Season: 9-6-1)
2019 Prediction: 9-7
I totally forgot that the Steelers did not win this division last year. There is no reason to think that they will this year, especially since they probably only got worse from last season, but I’m just not much of a believer in the other teams in the AFC North. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are gone for good, and all they have left is Roethlisberger. And sure, Big Ben is fine, but this team was only able to scrape together 9 wins last season. I guess I’m mostly just down on the AFC North in general, as I am predicting that 9 wins will be enough to win this lame division. 

Cleveland Browns (Last Season: 7-8-1)
2019 Prediction: 8-8
I was almost ready to get on the Cleveland bandwagon, but this obsession with Baker Mayfield is a little over the top for me. He’s fine. Maybe I’m just being an obnoxious hipster about this whole thing, but my dislike for the Browns is pretty much solely due to the fact that everyone likes the Browns. PASS. That being said, this team has a lot of exciting potential. Nick Chubb looks like one of the best running backs in the league. Beckham and Landry are a dope receiving tandem. Myles Garret has lived up to expectations so far. And Denzel Ward has been a beast at defensive back. Hm. Why aren’t I predicting that this team will win the division...?

Baltimore Ravens (Last Season: 10-6)
2019 Prediction: 7-9
Apparently the Ravens won AFC North last season. Totally forgot about that. Anyways, why am I so low on them? Well, it could have to do with the fact that I literally don’t remember them winning this division last year. However, with such a versatile young quarterback under Center, the Ravens should continue to keep teams off-balance, especially with their run-first football style, basically unheard of in this day and age. Harbaugh is all in on Lamar Jackson, which is cool, especially since he went 6-1 as the starter last season. Wait, Six and One? Damn, that’s good. Maybe the Ravens are better than I am giving them credit for... 

Cincinnati Bengals (Last Season: 6-10)
2019 Prediction: 5-11
This division should be fun to watch, as it seems very likely to come down to the last week of the season. The Steelers, Browns, and Ravens are definitely all contenders for the Division Title. You know who won’t be part of the fun? The Bengals! They are horrible. Dalton is bad! AJ Green can’t stay healthy! Joe Mixon is a great fantasy pick. Giovanni Bernard is a great handcuff for Mixon. And that’s all the players I know on the Bengals. They must suck! 


AFC South

Houston Texans (Last Season: 11-5)
2019 Prediction: 12-4 
I don’t expect this divisional race to be exciting anymore! Due to some recent developments that I will be talking about in the last paragraph of this division, the Texans have pretty much wrapped up the AFC South before a single game has even been played. In defense of this Houston team, the Texans were probably the best team in this division anyways. Watson is developing nicely, and he has a nice set of offensive and defensive weapons to help him out. The loss of Lamar Miller hurts fantasy owners, but I think the Texans will be relatively unaffected by it. Hopkins, Fuller, and Coutee (and now Stills) make for an epic wide receiver corps. And the defense is still one of the best in the league, anchored by some guy named Watt. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Season: 5-11)
2019 Prediction: 10-6
It’s hard to believe that the Jaguars are only a little over a year removed from a season that ended at the Conference Championship Game. And it was only due to a blown call against the Patriots that it stopped there. Can you believe that? The Jacksonville Jaguars should have been in the Super Bowl in 2018. Instead, they went home and then followed up their epic playoff campaign with a putrid 5 win season. So, which team was the real Jaguars? My gut (and the long horrid history of the Jaguars) suggests that last season was the real thing. But I don’t care! I want playoff Jaguars! So, I'm predicting them to sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Apparently, with Nick Foles behind Center, anything is possible!

Tennessee Titans (Last Season: 9-7)
2019 Prediction: 7-9
The Titans won nine games last season?! (It is probably not helping my credibility that I am consistently surprised by the previous season’s win totals for so many teams). Wow. I don’t remember them being worth a damn last year. No matter. I choose to accept my false memory of the Titans. In my memory, the Titans suck! I remember Derrick Henry doing some cool stuff, mostly because he is an untacklable tank. However, I’m still not a believer in Mariota. He hasn’t done much to show me that he knows how to win in the NFL. “But Adam, didn’t he win a playoff game in 2017?” Sure. “And didn’t he have a decent season, especially considering all of his 2018 injuries?” I guess. “And other than his rookie season, hasn’t Mariota had a winning record every season of his career?” Hey, no more goddamn questions, okay?

Indianapolis Colts (Last Season: 10-6)
2019 Prediction: 5-11
The Colts are doomed. Without Andrew Luck, this team is atrocious, and it serves the Indianapolis front office right that they will now learn just how inept they are when they don’t have one of the greatest quarterbacks in the NFL covering up all their personnel deficiencies. All the hot takes on this issue have been pretty much hashed out already. In summary, if you think Luck is a quitter, then you’re an idiot. If you commend Luck for making an incredibly difficult decision and stepping away from the game that he loves so that he can have a higher quality of life as he grows older, then you’re not an idiot. Luck owes the fans and the NFL nothing. He has given plenty. Personally, from a purely selfish standpoint, I’m sad to see him go. He was fun to watch when he was at his best. 


AFC East

New England Patriots (Last Season: 11-5)
2019 Prediction: 12-4
Somehow the Patriots won the Super Bowl last season, while not even playing all that well. While I won’t argue that New England is a consistently great team, I should point out that it certainly helps that every season they play in the league’s worst division. Are any of these teams even trying to put together competent football teams? The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are just a bunch of turnstiles of new inexperienced quarterbacks destined to fail. Meanwhile, Brady and the Pats get to take it easy, essentially playing 20 preseason games before they have to actually try during the playoffs. But seriously, when you don’t have to use any of your best plays to cruise to an easy 12 win season, you have a huge advantage heading into the playoffs, basically getting to roll out an entirely new and better game plan against unsuspecting teams. This division is pathetic. I expect New England to seal it up around Week 13. 

New York Jets (Last Season: 4-12)
2019 Prediction: 7-9
It’s amusing that this is a season that Jets fans are excited about. Like, they are going to be horrible again, but just slightly less so than usual. Darnold is fine. The defense is fine. Le’Veon Bell is going to crumble behind this garbage offensive line. And that’s all New York has going on. The best part about this team is that there are two more horrid teams in this division, so they should have a decent chance to win against them at least. 

Buffalo Bills (Last Season: 6-10)
2019 Prediction: 6-10
The Bills went to the playoffs two seasons ago. That’s incredible. What did they do after their first trip to the playoffs in nearly 20 years? Oh, they cut the quarterback that got them there and brought in some draft garbage. And guess what? They were garbage last season! What a shock. The defense is fine, but this offense has literally nothing going on. The only thing that worked for them last season was Josh Allen’s running ability. So, what do you think the Bills coaches want Allen to do less of this year? You guessed it, they want him to run less! Brilliant. 

Miami Dolphins (Last Season: 7-9)
2019 Prediction: 3-13
Chosen Rosen, welcome to the division of despair! And oh boy did you get forced into a horrible situation. The only saving grace for Rosen is that "Fitzmagic" will be the one taking the beating in Week 1. I expect that to be short lived though, since Fitzpatrick will most likely flop. This is not a knock on Fitzpatrick. I actually think he is a fairly good quarterback. It's just that there are currently no NFL quarterbacks that could succeed on this thin roster. Ballage and Drake have a nice thing going at running back. The wide receivers aren’t horrible, but they aren’t going to make huge plays for their quarterback either. On defense, I know Kiko Alonso is good, but I don’t actually recognize any other players on their depth chart, so I’m guessing the defensive unit is trash. And the Dolphins just traded arguably their best young player, Offensive Tackle Laremy Tunsil for future picks. This team has officially packed it in. It may be the worst team in the NFL. Good luck, Miami fans! 


So, I guess the AFC is horrible. Let’s see if the NFC is any better…


NFC West

Los Angeles Rams (Last Season: 13-3)
2019 Prediction: 13-3
The Rams were all-in last season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team take a slight dip this year; however, I’m still pegging them for another impressive 13-win season. And while last season was certainly not a disappointment for Los Angeles, it may still be seen that way, thanks to a horrible performance in the Super Bowl. The Rams were only able to score three points in a game that ended up being the least entertaining Super Bowl since Seattle demolished Denver in 2014. Would New Orleans have fared better against New England had a certain blatantly missed Pass Interference penalty been called? It’s hard to say. However, it’s hard to imagine the Saints putting up a worse performance than that in the Super Bowl. 

Seattle Seahawks (Last Season: 10-6)
2019 Prediction: 10-6
Seattle continues to barely hold onto relevancy. Every season it seems like they are destined for a regression, but they continue to stay above the NFL mediocre tier. The Seahawks have finished with a winning record every season since 2012. Not bad! It certainly helps that the Cardinals and Niners have both been horrible for quite some time now. Wilson continues to be solid, leading one of two run-first teams in the NFL. The running back committee is not bad. Lockett has emerged into a solid, consistent receiving option. And the defense is good, though certainly no Legion of Boom. I guess what I’m trying to say is that Seattle will be fine this year. Now that’s some exciting analysis! 

San Francisco 49ers (Last Season: 4-12)
2019 Prediction: 6-10
JIMMY G! He’s back and better than ever! Wait, you’re telling me that he’s back but worse than ever? Well, at least McKinnon is back from last season’s ACL tear; he’s just the kind of explosive player that can tear up a defe... wait, McKinnon has already been placed on Injured Reserve? What the hell? Are there any good players on the San Francisco roster? No, not one? They don’t even know who their WR1 is yet? Their defense is still mediocre trash? They lost to the Cardinals twice last season? At least this team is better than the Raiders? 

Arizona Cardinals (Last Season: 3-13)
2019 Prediction: 4-12
The Cardinals “won” the first pick of the draft last season by allowing their rookie quarterback to be eaten alive by the realities of playing for an atrocious team while having no NFL experience. It did not go well. In fact, it went so poorly that they traded him away in the following offseason, so that they could draft a different rookie quarterback who will also be ravaged by the realities of being on an atrocious team while having no NFL experience. Well, you know what they say... “Fool me once, strike one. Fool me twice, strike three.” -Michael Scott


NFC North

Chicago Bears (Last Season: 12-4)
2019 Prediction: 11-5
Trubisky is trash, but the rest of this damn team is really good. So, they actually may be good enough to make some noise, despite their weakness at quarterback. In an era where the Defensive Line is arguably the most important aspect of a defense, the Bears have the best unit in the entire NFL. Their superb Defensive Line, anchored by the best player in the game Khalil Mack, certainly contributed to their league-best defense last season. I am certainly not biased at all, but Mack is a truly amazing player and I miss him so much every day… Please come back Khalil. We need you... Fun fact! Khalil Mack had 12.5 sacks in 2018. The entire Raiders defense had 13 sacks. Hey Jon Gruden, you suck!

Minnesota Vikings (Last Season: 8-7-1)
2019 Prediction: 10-6
This team was so damn good in 2017. I thought it was the beginning of a new era for Minnesota. However, they regressed hard in 2018, indicating that 2017 may have just been a flash in the pan. However, I always say that there is a lot of value in having some consistency at quarterback, so I’m thinking year two of Cousins behind Center should be much better than year one, especially with the core of the team remaining mostly the same. What that in mind, it would seem that Minnesota is primed for another playoff run this season, right? Well, I’d be more confident, except for the fact that this division is one of the few in the NFL that has three above average teams. The NFC North Title race should be a very entertaining battle. It will probably cause a good team or two to miss the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers (Last Season: 6-9-1)
2019 Prediction: 10-6
Alright, so last season was pretty bad for Green Bay. By finishing with only 6 wins, the Packers finished with a losing record in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1991. That’s a pretty incredible stat. Do you know what happened in 1992 that turned this franchise around? Oh yeah, Brett Favre played his first season for the Packers. Then in 2008, he passed the torch to Rodgers. Life sure is easy when you have a reliable option at quarterback for almost 30 years. With such a great run of success coming to an end, it is no surprise that the Packers front office felt that they needed to change things up. That change was the end of Mike McCarthy’s 13 year tenure as Green Bay’s Head Coach. So begins the Matt LeFleur era. Being in charge of such a winning franchise will certainly put some pressure on the young Head Coach. I wonder how long his leash is and how hot his seat will get if the Packers get off to a slow start in 2019. 

Detroit Lions (Last Season: 6-10)
2019 Prediction: 4-12
I don’t think the Lions are that bad. However, I do think the NFC North is that good. The realities of playing in a strong division are that you are going to have a tough time winning games. If Detroit can grab some early Divisional wins, they may be more competitive than I am currently predicting. From the neutral’s perspective it would sure be entertaining if the Lions were able to push the race for the Division Title to four teams. However, I think I’m happy to settle for what is most likely to be an entertaining three-team race for the NFC North crown.


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (Last Season: 7-9)
2019 Prediction: 11-5
Conventional wisdom says that the Saints are the best team in the division. Well, forget that! I’m still a believer in Atlanta for some reason! The offense was great last season, but the defense was atrocious. Ravaged by injuries, they gave up the 5th most yards in the league. Not bad when you consider the fact that they still managed to win seven games last year. If the defense can be remotely better than last season and if the offense can reap the benefits of an improved offensive line, the Falcons may actually be able to win this division. Hmmmm, I just said that if the Falcons improve on offense and defense they might be better this season. That’s some truly brilliant analysis right there.

New Orleans Saints (Last Season: 13-3)
2019 Prediction: 11-5
Alright, I don’t have them winning the division, but I do predict them to be the top Wild Card team in a strong NFC Conference. The Saints are good, but they have plenty of issues. The defense is getting better, but the offense is in decline. I mean, I guess Brees can continue to play at an elite level, but I just have to think that this FORTY-YEAR-OLD MAN will not be as good this season as he was in 2018. Kamara and Thomas will do their best to keep the offense chugging away, but Brees’ age is going to become a sudden reality for the Saints soon. I guess they are just hoping that they can sneak a Super Bowl Title before that happens. 

Carolina Panthers (Last Season: 7-9)
2019 Prediction: 7-9
Newton’s shaky health makes me constantly nervous about Carolina’s ability to win games consistently. Maybe I’m just overreacting to a left foot sprain, but the fact that they had Cam in a walking boot during the preseason does not make me confident that he is 100%. As proven in seasons past, when Newton is not fully healthy, the Panthers can fall apart in spectacular fashion. McCaffrey has turned into a bonafide superstar, and the defense is certainly adequate, but can they make a playoff push in this competitive division? I’m not so sure about that. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Season: 5-11)
2019 Prediction: 6-10
I have never been a believer in Jameis Winston. I saw him play at Florida State. He was mediocre at best. Then the 2015 draft arrives, and apparently all the scouts say he is the consensus number one overall pick. What? Why? Well, I find myself still asking the same questions. Even with one of the greatest receivers in the game in Mike Evans, Winston cannot find a way to have even a mediocre season. Now, with the emergence of third-year receiver Chris Godwin, if Jameis still can’t lead this offense to competency, maybe it’s time to start asking the tough questions. Like, why did plug-in starter Ryan Fitzpatrick play just as well in this offense as Winston? Or, is it time to draft a better franchise quarterback? That being said, it appears as though Tampa Bay will continue to roll with Winston until they lose every game possible. They're really milking his losing record for all it's worth. I just don’t get it. 


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (Last Season: 10-6)
2019 Prediction: 11-5
What’s not to like about the Cowboys? Zeke’s holdout has come to a close. Dak has proven to be a worthy NFL starter. Cooper is a legitimately great receiver that was improperly utilized in Oakland. And the offense is still anchored by arguably the best Offensive Line in the NFL. Additionally, the NFC East is a particularly weak division, as only Philadelphia has the roster to be remotely competitive with Dallas this season. Things are looking up for America's Team. 

Philadelphia Eagles (Last Season: 9-7)
2019 Prediction: 10-6
Is Wentz healthy yet? If so, I’m digging these Eagles. Carson’s health has been the only thing holding back Philadelphia from achieving their true potential! Wait. You’re telling me they won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles at quarterback? Then what’s holding this team back? Is it Wentz? It might be Wentz? Wow... Well, never mind all that. The Eagles should be decent again. They are coming off back-to-back playoff seasons, with the former resulting in a Super Bowl Title. I expect Philadelphia to hang around as a top team for a little longer. I’m just not sure they are good enough to take the Division Crown from a tough Dallas team. 

New York Giants (Last Season: 5-11)
2019 Prediction: 5-11
I want Daniel Jones! Let the Daniel Jones era begin! In the shock of the offseason, the Giants selected Daniel Jones at sixth overall in the 2019 Draft. The draft is always a great place to identify the teams that are the most desperate not to be horrible anymore, and the Giants are certainly one of those teams. New York outsmarted themselves on this one. Jones was an average quarterback for a mediocre Duke team throughout college. I guess he literally looks like a franchise quarterback, that is, if you’re goal is for your franchise quarterback to look like a dopier version of Eli Manning. If Jones doesn’t produce wins for this trifling Giants team soon, New York might end up looking pretty stupid for making this unexpected draft-day move. 

Washington Redskins (Last Season: 7-9)
2019 Prediction: 4-12
The Redskins actually looked like a respectable team last season. Well, they looked good up until the moment Alex Smith broke his leg. After starting the season 6-3, Smith seemed to finally be proving his doubters wrong, showing that he could win on any team. Then, his season ended in horrific fashion. Josh Johnson, Colt McCoy, and Mark Sanchez combined to finish the season with a record of 1-6, and that was that. The Redskins have seemingly addressed their quarterback problem by bringing in Case Keenum (the poor man’s Alex Smith) and by drafting Dwayne Haskins, but I am still skeptical. In my opinion, this team is far away from contending for a playoff spot anytime soon. 


Super Bowl Prediction: 
The league is certainly wide open this year. The Patriots are the early-season favorites to repeat as champions. However, they are certainly vulnerable, as there are many teams right in their wake, looking to steal away the Lombardi Trophy. But who will it be…?
Prediction: Houston Texans defeat Chicago Bears in Super Bowl LIV, 24-21
Hard to imagine the Texans actually winning it all, but here we are, reaching the end of my nonsensical rambling, and that is exactly what I am saying will happen. These two teams are alright. I guess this Super Bowl result could happen. Right? Anyone agree with me? Maybe one person agrees with me? Probably not? Whatever. End of analysis. 

Enjoy the season! If you’re reading this, it has probably already started.

Monday, February 4, 2019

Super Bowl LIII Recap

Well, that game was objectively horrible. Two great offenses put up absolute stinkers on the biggest stage, as the Patriots limped to a Super Bowl LIII victory over the lifeless corpse of the Los Angeles Rams. For anyone that cares, I got my prediction correct Straight Up, but not Against The Spread. That brings my totals to 7-4 Straight Up, and 6-4-1 ATS. Those are some decent numbers, but I certainly have room for improvement. I guess there’s always next year. 

New England Patriots win Super Bowl LIII, defeating the Los Angeles Rams, 13-3
You read that right! The Rams were only able to muster a paltry 3 points in an entire 60 minute game of football. It was awful. It was boring. It was offensively inept. It was just a tortuous experience for all involved. Anyways, as I was saying... for the second straight playoff game, the Patriots impressively shut out their opponents in the first half. In the AFC Championship game, the Patriots led at halftime against the Kansas City Chiefs, 14-0. In the Super Bowl, they led 3-0 at halftime against the Los Angeles Rams. These two incredible defensive performances came against the two best offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs and Rams averaged 35.3 and 32.9 points per game during the regular season, respectively. And all of that came to a grinding halt, thanks to the superb play of a relatively mediocre New England defense. 

I have already heard a lot of people calling this the “worst Super Bowl ever,” which is obviously hyperbolic. Without putting any thought into it, I can immediately point to Super XLVIII, when the Seahawks dismantled the Broncos 43-8, as a far worse Super Bowl. But yes, it certainly wasn’t the spectacular football game we were all hoping for. That being said, I don’t think the lack of excitement was only due the offenses struggling against two well-prepared defenses. Good defense can be exciting, too! The problem for me was that there were simply no defining plays. No impressive feats of athleticism. No creative play-calling. In fact, there seemed to be little deception from either offense at all. 

There were nine straight punts for the Rams (maybe their ninth punt in a row was the defining play of the game). Nine. The Rams stalled on nine straight drives. McVay was stumped. The stretch run was ineffective. The passing game was hopeless. The offensive line was overpowered. It seemed there was nothing that the Rams (and to a lesser extent, the Patriots) could do to move the ball down the field, as they were simply unable to make chunk plays or even string together two decent plays at a time. When you think about it, the most exciting/impressive athletic play may have come during the first quarter, when Robey-Coleman made a great break on a Brady passd, deflecting it into the air, which ultimately allowed it to be intercepted by Littleton. That was exciting! For the Patriots, the best play of the game may have been Gronkowski’s 29 yard reception, which set up the only score of the game. While the pass was a pinpoint accurate throw, it was still a relatively routine play for New England. The catch was fine. The execution was solid. In any other Super Bowl, it would not have been a memorable play at all. However, in Super Bowl LIII, it was perhaps the best offensive play of the game. Oof. 

So how did the Patriot defense do it? How did they dominate so thoroughly? For one, New England brought the blitz, and they were rewarded with 4 sacks and an interception that was largely due to pressure on Goff. But a good blitz should not be enough to render an offense useless. There are simple tactical decisions that can be made to counteract such a strategy! If you’re Sean McVay and the Rams, why not try to catch the defense out of position with some running back screens? Why not use some quick-hitting timing routes to beat the blitz? Why not try doing anything different? Was McVay overwhelmed on the big stage when his initial strategy failed to produce points, or even move the ball? Did he freeze up, when a far more experienced coach had found a way to break his "11" personnel, crossing/rub routes, and wide receiver motions/end-arounds? Did McVay simply forget how to utilize All-Pro running back, Todd Gurley? 

Whether you credit Belichick or blame McVay, the result was all the same, an absolute defensive whooping by the Patriots. And, thanks to that phenomenal performance, Brady was able to grab his sixth Super Bowl championship, during one of the worst playoff performances of his career. So, where do both teams go from here? The Rams certainly have a bright future, but they clearly have a lot to learn. Still, with the way that the Salary Cap is structured, their window of opportunity may already be closing. In the very near future, they will have to start paying Goff an honest salary for an NFL starting quarterback. Their "win-now purchases" (Suh, Talib, Peters, etc.) soon may not be financially sustainable. And the rest of the NFC West is only getting better, which could pose another serious obstacle to the Rams' plans to be a consistent Super Bowl contender.

As for the Patriots, it seems that this dynasty may never go away. While Brady certainly had another solid season (especially for a 41-year-old), it is hard not to bring up the question of how much longer he will be able to succeed at this level. If the defense is this good, New England may be able to continue to win in spite of their aging legendary quarterback. If not, New England should have some concerns (though Brady has continued to defy Father Time until now) about how many more seasons, or games, Brady has left in him. In Super Bowl LIII, Brady looked bad. His passes were not crisp. His spirals were wobbly. His movement was slow. And he simply didn’t look like his dominant self. If it hadn’t been for a phenomenal performance from the Patriot defense, every post-Super Bowl headline would be discussing whether or not it were time for Brady to retire (in fairness, some sports analysts have been asking that question after every imperfect New England game for the past 3 years or so). Still, it was hard not to notice the deteriorating quarterback. Brady says he wants to play until he is 45. He'll have to show me that he can play effectively while he is 42 first.


Prop Bets
But enough about the actual game. I’m sure what everyone is really wondering about is how I did on my many Prop Bet predictions. And I have good news. They went quite well! Had you followed all my advice, and placed bets on all my brilliant Prop Bets, you would have made A LOT of money, as I got 4 out of 6 bets correct. Not bad, considering they were not all even odds. Check out the results below:

Correct Picks:
  • Length of National Anthem: Knight’s National Anthem was… controversial. Apparently a lot of Sports Books pay out after the end of the first “brave.” However, Knight kept going and let out a second one that took her rendition of the Star Spangled Banner from approximately 1:45, all the way up to 2:01. Other Sports Books that do not make it clear when the song is technically over are paying out both sides of the bet. So, should I consider my bet to be correct? Yes. Since the rules were not made clear to me, and since I get to do whatever I want because I have no Editor, I have decided that my bet was correct. Point, Adam.
  • First Player to Score: The first player to score a touchdown was also the only player to score a touchdown, and I predicted who it would be correctly. Michel found the end zone in the 4th quarter of New England’s game-sealing drive. It was followed by the only touchdown celebration of the night.  
  • Total Score: The total score added up to 16 points. SIXTEEN POINTS. The game that had the highest Over/Under in Super Bowl history also had the lowest final score in Super Bowl history. Of course it did. 
  • Winner of the Puppy Bowl: I heard Team Ruff won a close game, defeating Team Fluff, 59-51. I was also told that an adorable puppy named Bennet was given the Chewy Lombarki Trophy, since he was team captain of the winning side. Congrats to all the puppies, as they were the only true winners on Sunday.
Incorrect Picks:
  • Coin Toss: For the second straight year, I embarrassingly predicted the coin toss incorrectly. Tails made a big play, extending their series lead over Heads in the history of all Super Bowls to 28-25. 
  • Color of Liquid Thrown on Winning Coach: I incorrectly predicted that Lemon-Lime Gatorade would be dumped on Belichick. It was instead Blue. I was obviously disappointed in the miss here. However, I hear that the players who dumped the Gatorade are being investigated for collusion, as there is a possibility that they had a big money wager on this exact Prop Bet! 

Well, that’s a wrap from season number 53 of the NFL’s Super Bowl era. I’m sure most of you didn’t enjoy the outcome, and if you did, I don’t care! Here’s a picture of Brady maybe making out with team owner, Robert Kraft. Are they actually making out? Who knows! See you next year!

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Super Bowl LIII: Prediction

After 17 weeks of regular season football and three weeks of playoff action, we have finally arrived at the big stage. Both of the Conference's #2 seeds, who were able to win their respective Conference Championship Games on the Road, will face off in Atlanta to determine who are the champions of the NFL. Super Bowl LIII is finally here.

Super Bowl LIII @ Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
New England Patriots (11-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (13-3)
February 3rd, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -2.5)
It will be Super Bowl #9 of the Belichick/Brady Dynasty. Most fans are tired of this same old spectacle, watching one team dominate the NFL so thoroughly for nearly 20 years. However, the fans do not always get what they want, as the Patriots will once again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Attribute it to Belichick. Attribute it to Brady. Attribute it to conspiracies (don't actually do that). Attribute it to whatever you want. All that matters is that since 2001, when the Patriots won their first Super Bowl of this long dynastic run, New England has experienced arguably the greatest run of success in all of sports history. If it helps you sleep at night to say that the Patriots did this through cheating, then fine. But this team has not succeeded just because of a few deflated balls or a couple of well-placed video cameras. This team has simply been one step ahead of every other team in the league, at every moment of every season, for the last 18 years.

Calling this a rematch would be dishonest. The only two recognizable faces in this Super Bowl "rematch" are Belichick and Brady, and 17 years later, even their faces are far different than the ones that were represented in Super Bowl XXXVI. Back then, the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” was considered an unbeatable offensive juggernaut. Warner had just one his second MVP in three seasons, and his teammate, running back Marshall Faulk, won the award the season prior. Meanwhile, the Patriots were an unknown commodity that was forced to start their young, unknown, backup quarterback, in place of their injured veteran starter, Drew Bledsoe. However, this backup quarterback was well-tested, as he had won 11 of his 14 starts during the Regular Season, and he had also won both of his playoff appearances. Still, the Patriots were getting little respect against what most assumed would be a blowout Super Bowl. Of course, it was not, as Brady and the Patriots sneakily began their dynasty with a Super Bowl XXXVI victory. Now, 17 years later, the Rams are the unheralded underdog. The Patriots are the unstoppable Goliath. The Rams have the young hotshot coach and quarterback. The Patriots have the grizzled veterans. And the Rams don't even play in St. Louis anymore.

But enough about the past, what does this year’s version of the most-watched sporting event in the country entail? Well, it features two high-powered offenses, two mediocre defenses, and two well-regarded coaches. While McVay has only been an NFL Head Coach for two seasons, what he has done in those two brief years has been impressive. However, when compared against Belichick’s career of success, McVay has done nothing. Similarly, while Jared Goff has shown the potential to be an NFL star, Brady has lived it for 18 years. So, will this be a passing of the old guard to the new, just as it seemingly was 17 years ago, or will the experience of the two men that have been here 8 times before win the day?

Prediction: The Patriots offense gets off to a horrible start, as Brady throws 2 interceptions and coughs up one fumble on their first three possessions. Fortunately, the defense is able to hold the Rams to three Zuerlein field goals off the turnovers. With two minutes left in the half, New England has the ball but trails, 12-0. Brady leads the offense on a touchdown drive to end the half, which culminates in a Sony Michel score. As both teams head into the locker room, the Rams lead by 5, 12-7. The Patriots cut further into the lead to start the second half, as a field goal brings them within 2 points. However, Los Angeles responds when they finally score their first touchdown of the game, on a short Josh Reynolds slant route. The game swings back in New England’s favor, as the Patriots score 13 unanswered points, giving them their first lead of the game, 23-19. As the game creeps later and later into the fourth quarter, the Rams are forced to get aggressive. They convert two fourth downs on their way to another touchdown, this time to Robert Woods. The Rams retake the lead, though a missed extra points keeps the score at 25-23, with 1:35 left on the clock. Brady gets the ball back with two timeouts. He is able to orchestrate masterful drive, just another in his illustrious career. New England is set up for a 39 yard field goal with 4 seconds left. Stephen Gostowski trots out onto the field in Atlanta, and nails it, as the entire world outside of New England simultaneously moans in disgust. The Patriots defeat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII, 26-25.  

Bleh! I guess the Patriots are going to win their 6th Super Bowl (but not cover the spread). Booooo! But honestly, who cares! What I want to know is, what will be the results of all those nonsense Prop bets! Well, read on to find out.


Prop Bets!

Coin Toss
Options:
Heads
Tails
Prediction: Heads
From 2009 to 2013, we had five straight Heads. In the subsequent four Super Bowls, we saw a grand run of Tails. However, in Super Bowl LII, Heads finally ended Tails' streak, cementing their place as the winning call. Now, is this the beginning of a long run of success, or just a blip in the rode of Tails’ Dynastic run? At the moment, Tails leads the all-time series 27-25. With that in mind, I’ll take Heads. Also, I just flipped a coin, as part of a pre-Super Bowl simulation, and it came up Heads, so I’m feeling extra confident.

Length of National Anthem
Options:
Over 1:47
Under 1:47
Prediction: Over
I don’t know anything about Gladys Knight. However, I expect her to milk this thing for all it’s worth. Expect this rendition of the Star Spangled Banner to be well over 1:47 (possibly over 2:00!).

First Player to Score a Touchdowns
Options:
Many
Prediction: Sony Michel (+500)
Michel is getting the best odds to be the first touchdown scorer of the game, and I agree with those odds! As I have already determined in my above prediction, he will indeed be the first touchdown scorer. .

Total Score
Options:
Over 57
Under 57
Prediction: Under
My full game prediction is above. If you can do simple math, you will be able to figure out why I am choosing the Under.

Color of liquid thrown on winning coach
Options:
Clear (Water) +220
Green/Yellow +220
Orange +400
Blue +500
Orange +750
No liquid thrown +1500
Prediction: Green/Yellow
Everybody loves that lemon/lime. I know it’s getting the best odds (along with Clear/Water), but it is also an obvious pick that I’ll gladly take at +220.

Winner of 15th Puppy Bowl
Options:
Team Fluff
Team Ruff
Prediction: Team Ruff
Team Fluff dominated this game last season. However, this team has simply not looked good since last season’s MVP, Bear went down with a season-ending knee Injury. I expect Team Ruff to take full advantage.

Well, there you have it, all my flawless predictions. So, kick back, enjoy a beer (or six), and watch the Patriots slowly and mercilessly devour our souls in Super Bowl LIII. Enjoy!