Super Bowl XLVIII: My Predictions

It is a Super Bowl matchup that many predicted at the beginning of the season (not me).  The high-powered offense of Denver, led by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, versus the Legion of Boom and  a defense that has been able to play up to all of their self-proclaimed hype this season.  It is just unfortunate that a Super Bowl matchup that has all the makings of a great game has the potential to be marred by an inclement East Coast winter.  Fortunately, per my most recent weather check, it appears as though the Super Bowl will most likely avoid snow.   Let’s take a look at the final matchup of the NFL season. 

Seattle Seahawks (13-3) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3) @ Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ

Sunday, February 2^nd, 6:25 PM ET (Current Line, Broncos -2.5)

There is plenty to talk about in this matchup.  The #1 defense vs. the #1 offense.  The unreasonable amount of hate Richard Sherman is receiving.  Peyton Manning’s legacy, and how NFL pundits are already deciding how this one game will define his entire NFL career.  The unreasonable amount of love Sherman is receiving in response to all the hate he is receiving.  The constant talk about how Moreno is an underrated running back.  Lynch not talking to the media.  How Peyton plays poorly in cold weather.  Lynch’s love for Skittles.  Peyton Manning’s looming retirement.  And, the 12^th man (which won’t even be at the game). 

Anyways, I am just going to give my prediction, since sports outlets have already exhausted all of these topics.  And more importantly, I will provide some insider information to some of the Super Bowl’s most intriguing betting options. 

Prediction: We get a back and forth game, and at halftime, the score is 10-10.  I spend halftime watching Animal Planet’s “Puppy Bowl” halftime show and miss the opening kickoff, which is returned by Trindon Holliday for a touchdown.  However, the Seahawks come back and lead 24-20 with less than 2 minutes to play.   The Broncos drive down the field and with 12 seconds left, Manning throws a 7 yard touchdown pass to Decker on an over-the-shoulder fade route to the back left corner of the end zone.  Broncos win 27-24.

More Great Betting Opportunities

The Coin Toss

A classic.  Heads or Tails.  It is not as simple as one might think.  The coin toss has come up Heads in 5 straight Super Bowls and seems to have a lock on this era of the NFL.  However, I’m sure we all remember Tails’ most dominant era is Super Bowl history, Super Bowl 32-40 (1998-2006), where Tails came away with 8 of 9 tosses.  However, Heads is showing unprecedented dominance, as this 5 flip streak is the longest streak in Super Bowl history.  With all this information at my disposal, the choice seems obvious.   

Prediction: TAILS.  The flip is slightly lower than usual, not allowing Heads to gain its usual advantageous position.  Tails makes a quick move for top spot on the Super Bowl field, and after 22 rotations in the air and three bounces on the ground, Tails is victorious. 

Will Wes Welker Drop a Pass?  (Even)

If the ball touches the phalanges, you gotta make the catch.  The prior sentence is not relevant to my prediction. 

Prediction: YES.  Welker drops 3 passes in the first quarter and is benched at halftime.

What Number Will the First Player to Score a TD be Wearing? (Over/Under 79.5)

I see the first touchdown coming on the ground because my psychic told me so.    

Prediction: UNDER.  Moreno or Lynch will score first.

Who will be seen on TV first, Pam Oliver (46%) or Erin Andrews (54%)?

I’m leaning towards Oliver here, even though she is the slight underdog.  I think Andrews is a little overhyped because of the attention that her interview with Richard Sherman received.

Prediction: OLIVER shines in an epic initial Super Bowl appearance. 

Will Knowshon Moreno cry during The National Anthem? (3/2)

I’m thinking Knowshon Moreno is all out of tears after crying before the Broncos-Chiefs game.  I’m going with the odds here. 

Prediction: NO.

Over/Under 47

I predicted a score of 27-24 above.  Peyton Manning leaves it late, but with his final touchdown pass, we will all be celebrating victory, as our bet on the “Over” pays off. 

Prediction: OVER

So, drink a beer.  Make some bets.  Laugh at some commercials.  Avoid the halftime show (but don’t miss the kickoff).  And hopefully we can all enjoy a memorable Super Bowl.  I will be wearing my Nnamdi Asomugha jersey.  Go Raiders.    

Conference Championship Weekend Recap 2014

What a weekend.  Even for someone who is not a fan of any of the final four teams, Conference Championship Weekend was exhausting.  After the final snap of the NFC Championship game, I was emotionally drained, torn between empathy towards a distraught 49ers team and the excitement of the eminent Super Bowl matchup between the top offense and top defense in the league.  I got to watch Brady and Manning battle in another classic rivalry matchup.  And I watched an NFC Championship game that pitted the two toughest teams in football against each other.  Conference Championship Weekend had plenty of excitement.  I went 1/2 on the weekend, and 1-1 against the spread (ATS).  My playoff total is now 7/10 and 6-2-2 ATS.  Good for me.  Let’s take a closer look at last Sunday’s games. 

New England Patriots 16, Denver Broncos 26

This game was slightly lower scoring than I expected; however, I predicted this one pretty accurately.  The Broncos were dominant in a game that could have been decided by much more than 10 points.  The injury to Aqib Talib was huge, but it was the Patriots’ offense that ultimately failed them in this game.  Brady had a couple of early opportunities to make some big plays; however, he missed a couple key throws early in the game that could have resulted in huge gains.  The Broncos’ defense stepped up, especially considering the absence of #1 corner back, Chris Harris.  The Patriots were lucky to score 16 points in this game.  Their offense was totally stymied for most of the game, until the Broncos backed up into a “prevent” defense in the fourth quarter.  This game was a testament to the fact that you can’t attribute every win to the quarterback.  While Manning had a great game, the Broncos dominated the Patriots as a whole.  There was not much that Brady could have done against a team that was simply better than his.  The Broncos advanced to the Super Bowl in convincing fashion; however, a tough opponent from the NFC awaits them. 

San Francisco 49ers 17, Seattle Seahawks 23

For a game where my prediction was wrong, I was able to predict how the game would go relatively accurately.  The Niners outplayed the Seahawks in the first half and were unfortunate to go into the half only up by 7 points.  The Niners’ pass rush was incredibly effective, and they were able to make Russell Wilson very uncomfortable.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defensive line was unable to contain Kaepernick on the other side of the ball.  Kaepernick was comfortable in the first half, picking out receivers and making big plays with his feet.  After a first half that reminded me of how Vince Young single-handedly won the 2006 BCS National Championship Game for Texas over USC in the Rose Bowl, I thought Kaepernick was about to have his iconic playoff game, possibly stamping his name in an illustrious 49ers history.  However, a quick defensive stop and a dominant running attack for the Seahawks on the first two drives of the second half foreshadowed what was to come.  The Niners’ run defense suddenly looked atrocious, and the Seahawks’ offensive line was getting a huge push on every running play.  Lynch was running through holes and breaking tackles with ease.  The Niners were in trouble.  The Seahawks were able to put more pressure on Kaepernick in the second half, and they were able to contain him on the ground.  Until a spectacular jump pass by Kaepernick, one of the greatest plays of the playoffs, the Niners’ offense had been slowed down to a crawl.  The Niners had a chance to win it late, but a great play by Sherman sealed the deal for the Seahawks, and punched their ticket to the Super Bowl. 

We’re all set for a great Super Bowl match.  The top offense in NFL history takes on the top defense in the league.  I am looking forward to seeing what everyone will be saying about this great matchup.  My first instinct tells me that the Broncos will have the slight edge.  They have a great offense and have shown an unexpected resilience on the defensive side of the ball during the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are far more intimidating at home, a place they will be far from come February 2^nd.  Additionally, Peyton Manning has too many reliable targets for Richard Sherman to cover on his own.  Anyways, I’ll quit rambling here.  My full Super Bowl prediction will be coming in as the big game draws nearer.  Also, I will not be commenting on the Pro Bowl because I refuse to watch a game where the biggest headline is, “Deion Sanders says he’s suiting up for the Pro Bowl.”  Ummm, who cares? 

And finally, I’d like to make a comment on the whole Richard Sherman incident at the end of the game.  I tried to view this from as unbiased perspective as possible.  I will admit that I was rooting for the Niners, but I am a Raider fan.  I didn’t have a big emotional investment in the game.  Anyways, everyone has been making a big deal about Sherman's post-game interviews (on the field and off the field).  In my opinion, Sherman has every right to say whatever he wants during an interview; that’s why we have the interviews, to see what the players are thinking.  However, I have every right to find him to be a classless, arrogant player.  I had no problem with him talking himself up.  I didn’t even have a problem with him proclaiming himself as the best cornerback in the league.  The fire to be the best is what takes many great players to their maximum potential.  However, calling out a specific player on the other team is simply classless.  Be a gracious winner.  That is what respectable NFL players do. 

Sherman’s interviews are not even what really annoyed me.  My biggest problem with what Sherman did was on the field, right after the interception.  Going up to an opponent, moments after a game-sealing play, and giving him any kind of gesture (i.e. a slap on the butt) is ridiculous.  It just annoys the hell out of me when some arrogant player starts talking smack to an opponent in a situation like that, taking advantage of an emotional moment in the game to get in a cheap shot when a player is down.  That is a classless act.  Be proud of your team’s achievement; don’t take this opportunity to make an ass out of yourself.  Richard Sherman is a polarizing player.  I can see why people like him.  However, there is a difference between passion and blind arrogance.  Maybe if I was a Seahawks fan, I would see this differently.  

Conference Championship Weekend 2014: My Predictions

Give me a beer and a place to sit and I shall watch both NFL Conference Championship games.

-Archimedes

Get excited.  Conference Championship Weekend is upon us, and we have two incredible matchups headed our way.  Manning vs. Brady.  Seahawks vs. 49ers.  In one matchup, we have one of the all-time greatest quarterback rivalries.  In the other matchup, we have two of the brightest up and coming quarterbacks in the league, two players who are ushering in a new era of the mobile quarterback in the NFL.  This is by far the most talented “Final Four” in recent NFL playoff memory, and I am very excited for this upcoming Sunday of football.  Check out my predictions for this Sunday’s matchups. 

New England Patriots (12-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

Sunday, 3:00 ET (Current Line, Denver -5.5)

In what has the potential to be the final playoff meeting between two of the most prolific passers in NFL history, the Patriots take on the Broncos in Denver.  Earlier this season, the Patriots defeated the Broncos in Foxborough, 34-31 in overtime, after trailing 24-0.  However, the playoffs are a totally different environment, and this time, the teams meet at Sports Authority Field.  I could go on and on about the matchup between Brady and Manning.  One quarterback has incredible weapons at receiver, the other has Julian Edelman.  One quarterback has possibly the greatest NFL coach of all time, the other has John Fox.  One team has one of the top defensive backs in the NFL, while the other team has Chris Harris with a torn ACL.  However, when it comes down to it, we have Brady vs. Manning.  So appreciate it while it’s here.  These quarterbacks are two of the all-time greats. 

Prediction: The Patriots have the ball, down by 7 with less than 2 minutes left in the 4^th quarter.  Brady is driving and has the ball at midfield, 4^th down & 3.  Brady throws deep for Thompkins, who is taken down by Rodgers-Cromartie on what appears to be an obvious pass interference.  No flag is thrown; the Broncos prevail, 31-24 and will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.    

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Sunday, 6:30 ET (Current Line, Seahawks -3.5)

I think at this point we can all agree that these are two of the most obnoxious fan bases in the NFL.  To Seahawks fans: You have a great homefield advantage; however, you weren’t even one of the three teams in the NFL to finish undefeated at home this year.  Get over yourselves.  To 49ers fans: The Seahawks are not a bunch of cheaters.  They play under the same rules as all other teams.  Please stop whining about non-calls in the secondary. 

Now, let’s look at the matchup.  We have two similar quarterbacks with some stark differences.  One is small and weak; the other is big and strong.  One plays with his eyes open; the other does not.  One has a running back who is big and strong and likes to knock defenders over; the other has a running back who is big and strong and likes to knock defenders over.  These are two incredibly physical teams, and they always seem to play each other tough.  Seattle blew the Niners out early in the regular season at Century Link Field, 29-3.  Meanwhile, the Niners barely squeaked out a victory at Candlestick in a more recent Week 14 matchup, 19-17.  The third and final matchup between these two teams should be great.  I would argue that the Niners are the slightly better team at the moment; however, the Seahawks have homefield advantage.  In what should be a defensive battle, one big play could decide this contest. 

Prediction: Down 23-20, late in the 4^th quarter, the Niners are driving down the field.  Kaepernick throws an awful interception to Richard Sherman; however, it is called back because of an offsides penalty.  Kaepernick then leads the Niners down the field and sets up Dawson for a 36 yard field goal.  Dawson hits the field goal and sends the game into overtime.  Dawson then sends the Niners to the Super Bowl with a 41 yard field goal in OT.  Niners win, 26-23 and will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. 

Broncos vs. 49ers in The Meadowlands.  That would be a great Super Bowl matchup.  However, in truth, any of the potential Super Bowl matchups would make for a great game.  Manning will try to silence the naysayers with a second Lombardi Trophy.  Brady will look to add another Championship to his impressive list of Super Bowl wins.  The Seahawks will attempt to prove what they have been saying all year long: that they are the best team in the NFL.  And the Niners will go for Super Bowl trophy number six, which would tie the Steelers for the most all-time of any franchise.  Every team has got plenty to play for, and every player wants to put their hands on the Lombardi Trophy.  One more great weekend of football is headed our way!  

Divisional Playoff Round Recap 2014

It was not nearly as exciting as Wild Card Weekend, but another great weekend of NFL playoffs is in the books.  For the first time in a long time, it appears as though the two best teams from each conference have made it to their respective Conference Championship games.  I went 3/4 this weekend and 3-0-1 ATS (against the spread).  My overall playoff record is now 6/8 and 5-1-2 ATS.  I am pleased with these numbers.  Next weekend should be great.  Let’s take a closer look at the games from this weekend. 

New Orleans Saints 15, Seattle Seahawks 23

I said that if the Saints’ defense stepped up, this game would be a lot closer than people expected, and that is exactly what happened.  The Saints’ defense kept them in this game for as long as they could, but Brees and the offense were not able to produce anything on the other side of the ball.   I thought Brees would be more comfortable in a tough environment during his second visit to Century Link Field, but he was not at all.  It looked like he didn’t know how to handle the noise, and he never had control of the game.  In the second half, Brees took a Delay of Game penalty and wasted two timeouts to avoid additional Delay of Game penalties.  These were unacceptable mistakes for a veteran like Brees.  To make things tougher for the Saints, Graham missed two critical field goals, which could have made the game even closer. 

This game also displayed the Seahawks’ weaknesses on offense once again.  Seattle’s offense has playmakers in Wilson, Tate, Harvin, and Lynch.  However, the offense as a whole lacks consistency.  Wilson did enough to get the win, but he was very unimpressive.  Lynch carried the team, on his way to another great game on the ground.  This is a beatable Seahawks team; however, it will take a great performance from the Niners to get the win next weekend.  Also, I know some people will be arguing that the Seahawks got away with a lot of penalties in the secondary, and that is somewhat accurate.  However, the refs were not calling many Holding or Pass Interference penalties against either secondary.  Both secondaries were playing very physical against opposing receivers.  The referees let them play on both sides of the ball and called a fair and consistent game, which is what matters. 

Indianapolis Colts 22, New England Patriots 45

I started the weekend off 2/2, predicting how both games would go relatively accurately.  The Patriots exploited the Colts’ porous defense and were not nearly as generous as the Chiefs on the opposite side of the ball, making Luck pay for his mistakes.  Similar to the Chiefs game, the Colts front seven were totally dominated, and if you didn’t notice, the Patriots took slight advantage of that on the ground.  The Pats run game was unstoppable, scoring six touchdowns, four by Blount.  The Colts were simply outplayed.  Maybe they were emotionally drained from the week before.  Either way, thanks to the Patriots’’ victory, we will be treated to a classic Brady vs. Manning matchup in the AFC Conference Championship game.  The Patriots are rolling right now, but it appears as though they might not have enough talent on their roster to win it all.  However, you can never count out the Brady-Belichick machine. 

San Francisco 49ers 23, Carolina Panthers 10

I expected another defensive struggle between these two teams, and that is what we got.  San Francisco’s defense stepped up big, and Carolina was simply outplayed by a better team.  This game followed a similar theme to the Divisional Playoff games before it: one team dominated in the trenches, and that was the 49ers.  The Panthers were only able to amass 39 yards on the ground from their running backs.  Meanwhile, Gore played well, running for 84 of the Niners’ 126 yards.  San Francisco’s offense looked better as a whole, a big step up from the mere nine points they were able muster in their previous meeting with the Panthers.  Kaepernick looked like a confident quarterback for most of the game.  Was having Crabtree back from injury the difference?  I have to believe so.  Crabtree only had three receptions, but he was able to take away some of the attention from Boldin, who had a great game, grabbing 8 passes for 136 yards.  With Kaepernick’s full arsenal of weapons, the Niners’ offense has been looking more threatening than it did at the beginning of the season.   Unfortunately for the Panthers, this was a tough start to Cam Newton’s playoff career, playing against such a great defense.  Newton looked a bit shaky, lacking that confidence that he had been playing with towards the end of the season.  Hopefully we will see him in the playoffs again soon.  For now, we look ahead to next weekend.  By winning this game, the Niners set up the third and final matchup of the season between, in my opinion, the two best teams in the NFL.  The winner will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, most likely as the favorite to win it all. 

San Diego Chargers 17, Denver Broncos 24

I am very happy that I got this pick wrong.  This game didn’t go as I expected, but like I said, rivalry games can be very difficult to predict.  I mean, what happened to the Charger’s offense?  They didn’t show up until the fourth quarter, when it was already too late.  Neither offense played very well, against two mediocre defenses.   I guess both defenses just played well.  However, as I watched the game, it seemed like both offenses were doing what they wanted, but neither was scoring points.  Rivers and Manning both played OK.  The Broncos were the only team that was able to get significant production in the running game though.  It was just a strange game to watch.  Ultimately, I’m glad that the Broncos won.  In my opinion, the two best teams from each conference will be playing for their conference championship next weekend.  That’s awesome.  However, Denver fans must be a bit concerned after watching this sub-par performance from their team.  Meanwhile, San Diego fans should be upset at the fact that the Chargers missed out on a great opportunity to beat an underperforming team.  The Broncos look very beatable now, and their lethal offense did not look as intimidating as it had for most of the season.  Maybe Mike McCoy just knows how to stop the Broncos’ offense.  He has held the most prolific scoring offense in NFL history to 28, 20, and 24 points this season; that’s pretty good.  If I’m Bill Belichick, I’m calling up McCoy, asking for pointers on how to slow down Denver’s offense. 

Well there you have it.  We are set for two great games this weekend.  The two best teams in the NFL will fight it out for the NFC Championship, in a matchup that has become the greatest current rivalry in the NFL.  And two of the best quarterbacks of all time, certainly the two best quarterbacks of this era, will renew a great rivalry, as Denver takes on New England for the AFC Championship.  I am really looking forward to this weekend.  There is going to be some great football.  My predictions for the Conference Championship games will be coming on Friday.  Stay tuned!

Divisional Playoff Round 2014: My Predictions

Wild Card Weekend will be tough to top, but I think we have some great games headed our way this weekend.  We have a road favorite, a divisional rivalry, and lots of playoff experience in all four games.  Many people see the Broncos as unbeatable at home this weekend, but the Chargers have already left Sports Authority Field with a win once this year.  The Patriots look like a clear cut favorite, but the Colts have been one of the best teams against top competition all season long.  The Seahawks rocked the Saints at Century Link Field in the regular season, but does that actually benefit the Saints?  And finally, the 49ers head into Carolina as slight favorites… and I think I agree with that!  Here are my predictions for this weekend’s slate of games. 

New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Saturday, 4:35 ET (Current Line, Seahawks -8)

At first glance, it seems pretty obvious that the Seahawks should win this game.  Let’s lay out the facts.  The Seahawks looked incredible at Century Link Field all season, especially against good competition.  The Seahawks average margin of victory at home this year was just over 15 points.  They defeated the Saints in Week 13 by 27 points, 34-7.  They have possibly the most talented roster in the league, with a pass defense that has silenced opposing quarterbacks (including Drew Brees) all season long.  However, the Seahawks showed their weaknesses to the rest of the league when they lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 16, 17-10.  The Seahawks’ offense was exposed against the Cardinals.  Palmer gave Wilson and the Seattle offense plenty of chances, by turning the ball over numerous times; however, the Seahawks were unable to capitalize on these opportunities.  So, if New Orleans wants to defeat Seattle, they are going to have to do it on defense.  The Saints will have trouble scoring; just about every team that comes into Seattle does. However, I believe that having played at Century Link once this season definitely benefits the Saints.  They know exactly what they are walking into, and Brees knows exactly how many audible signals he will be able to communicate to his teammates at the line (none).   If the Saints’ defense steps up, this game could be a lot closer than people expect.  The spread says -8, but my mind is telling me that anything could happen!  What to do, what to do?!

Prediction:  The Saints are trailing 24-17, with less than 2 minutes left in the game.  Brees and the Saints are driving, until an errant throw ends up in the hands of Earl Thomas.  The Seahawks hold on, 24-17. 

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

Saturday, 8:15 ET (Current Line, Patriots -7)

Our second Saturday game showcases another heavy home favorite in the New England Patriots.  The Patriots, even with a depleted roster, managed 12 wins over the regular season.  New England looked like a top team in the AFC all season, even though they had to squeak out some wins in a few close games.  The Patriots are a team that simply knows how to win.  The Colts bring an intimidating opponent, though.  No team has beaten more top competition than Indianapolis this season.  They have showed an impressive resilience all year, but I have a feeling a meeting with the AFC’s number 2 seed in Foxborough may ultimately prove to be too much.  I know I’ll be rooting for the Colts, but that most likely will not help. 

Prediction: The Patriots jump out to a 24-0 lead in the first half.  Andrew Luck and the Colts fight back, but the Patriots know better than to let a large lead evaporate.  Patriots cruise by the Colts, 34-20

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 ET (Current Line, 49ers -1)

This should be a fun game.  I think a lot of people still don’t know what to think of the Panthers.  Since losing three of their first four games, the Panthers quietly turned their season around, and became one of the toughest teams in the NFL.  The Panthers have shown what they can do against top competition, beating the Niners at Candlestick and winning against the Patriots and Saints at home.  The Panthers are a well rounded team, with a confident Cam Newton at the helm.  When the Panthers are winning, Cam looks good.  And when Cam looks good… well, you know.  Anyways, I, like many other people, see a great team in the Niners.  I expect another grudge match, just like the 10-9 game we saw in Week 10.  This one should come down to the last possession. 

Prediction: The Niners are in another defensive battle this week.  They jump out to the early 6-0 lead, as the Panthers shake off the rust of the bye week.  The Panthers come back to take the lead.  The Niners, down 13-9 in the 4^th quarter, score a touchdown on a 37 yard Kaepernick run, with 2:37 left on the clock.  San Francisco’s defense forces a turnover on downs, and the Niners win, 16-13. 

San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

Sunday, 4:40 ET (Current Line, Broncos -9.5)

The Broncos may be favored by 9.5 points, but this one is a toss-up for me.  Like I said in an earlier post, rivalry matchups in the playoffs are almost impossible to call.  Are the Broncos the far superior team?  Of course.  I don’t think there are even many Charger fans who would argue with that.  Do the Chargers have a great chance of defeating the Broncos for the second time in Denver this Sunday?  I have to say yes to that, too.  So, like any good analyst, I have stated that either the Broncos will win because they are better, or the Chargers will win for reasons that I cannot explain.  This is an intelligent prediction.  I cannot be wrong.  I really do not want to see the Chargers win, but my gut is telling me that they will.  Do I possess the required cojones to make the upset call?  Charger fans are on the edge of their seat, waiting for my prediction…

Prediction: The Chargers dominate the first half, and lead 24-10 going into halftime.  However, Peyton Manning comes out and does Peyton Manning things in the second half.  Manning leads the Broncos on a great comeback, but ultimately comes up short when Rivers scores a TD on a QB sneak to seal it.  Chargers win 34-31. 

Seahawks, Patriots, 49ers, Chargers.  Those are my predictions; however, not the results that I will be hoping for.  I will be rooting for the Saints, Colts, 49ers, and Broncos this weekend.  So, hopefully my predictions are wrong, especially my last pick.  I can’t believe I picked the Chargers.  I really hope I am wrong about that.  Maybe there was a little something inside of me that knew if I picked against the Chargers again, they would win again.  Hopefully I have cursed them this time.  I hate seeing those stupid “#BoltUp” statuses on my Facebook newsfeed.  Anyways, the two games I am really looking forward to watching are in the NFC.  I think the Saints are going to give the Seahawks a great battle in Seattle, expect a close one there.  And the 49ers and Panthers should produce a great defensive game, something that is hard to come by in today’s offense-happy league.  Enjoy this weekend of football!  I know I will.  I’ll be back to pick up the pieces of my awful predictions on Tuesday.  

Wild Card Weekend Recap 2014

What a great weekend of games.  Three games were decided by three points or fewer, two of which were decided on the final play of the game.  Some things went as expected, but others did not.  And other than a handful of Charger fans, I don’t think I was alone in my surprise of the most unexpected result of the weekend.  This weekend I went 3/4 on my predictions, with a record of 2-1-1 ATS (against the spread).  Here’s how the games shook out. 

Indianapolis Colts defeat Kansas City Chiefs, 45-44

I guess I got this one right; however, I will be the first to admit that this game did not go as I expected at all.  The Chiefs had an unexpectedly incredible game on the offensive side of the ball.  Alex Smith may have played the single greatest game of his life, in an unfortunate losing effort.  When a quarterback that you don’t usually rely on throws for 4 TDs and 0 interceptions, you usually expect to win.  Anyways, the Chiefs played with an offensive prowess that I did not see coming at all.  Smith was far from a game manager in the first half.  He was making plays with his feet, his vision, and his arm.  The Chiefs offense looked unstoppable for just over thirty minutes of the game.  However, the one thing I have been preaching about this year is the fact that the Kansas City defense is very overrated, and it was their poor defensive display that ultimately doomed them on Saturday.  They had great numbers against awful offenses all year, but their defense was abysmal when faced with decent competition during the regular season.  I will point out that the Chiefs were a bit unfortunate on Saturday, losing many key players to injuries; however, these injuries are something that teams have to learn to deal with, and I do not think it was the main reason for Kansas City’s demise.  Ultimately, relinquishing a 28 point lead is incredibly devastating, and this will be a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that just lost its eighth straight playoff game, dating back to 1993.  The Colts showed an incredible resilience against an overachieving Chiefs team.  Andrew Luck bailed me out of what initially appeared to be a bad prediction, and in doing so, added his most impressive win to his already long résumé of great NFL comebacks. 

New Orleans Saints defeat Philadelphia Eagles, 26-24

The Saints ushered me to a 2/2 start on Saturday.  This game wasn’t quite as high-scoring as I expected it to be, but both offenses played well.  New Orleans dominated a large portion of the game, and when they went up 20-7, I was feeling pretty comfortable with my prediction.  However, Philadelphia was not done yet, and Foles and the Eagles made an impressive comeback, displaying why they had become one of the hottest teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs.  I had a feeling this game would be close, and my decision to pick the Saints to win ultimately came down to which team I thought would be able to put together that key drive in the 4^th quarter.  Foles was arguably a better quarterback this season, but Brees has the experience that is required for those pressure-filled moments that come in the dying stages of a playpff game.  Brees constructed a brilliant drive that led to Shayne Graham’s 32 yard, game-winning field goal.  Granted Brees only threw one pass on the final drive of the game, he was still key in successfully managing the game by monitoring the clock, making the right audibles, and leading the Saints on their final march down the field.  There will be no easy matchups for any NFC playoff team this post-season, and the Saints, the sixth seed in the NFC, demonstrated why. 

San Diego Chargers defeat Cincinnati Bengals, 27-10

It must be frustrating to be a fan of the Cincinnati Bengals.  The team has been so bad for so long, and now they finally have a great deal of talent on their team, only to continue to underachieve.  Now, give credit to the Chargers.  They came into Cincinnati, and proved that they can play against any team.  Rivers looked good, the defense was phenomenal, and the team stepped up when they had to.  Still, you have to ask, what’s wrong with the Bengals?  They have a great defense and a ton of talent on offense.  The Bengals have one of the best running back tandems in the league, in Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard.  They also have a great receiving core, consisting of Green, Sanu, Jones, and Gresham.  So, unfortunately for a certain red-headed quarterback, all signs point to Dalton.  Like I said all season, this team was consistently winning in spite of Dalton, and this game will do nothing to silence me and the other critics of the Cincinnati quarterback.  He has a ton of talent at his disposal, but he just does not seem good enough to take advantage of it.  The Bengals looked phenomenal at times during the regular season, but every once in awhile they would go on the road, and barely even show up for a game.  The Bengals were consistently forced to lean on their defense throughout the regular season, especially on the road.  The Bengals had some clear weaknesses heading into the playoffs; I just did not expect them to exit the post-season at home against the Chargers. 

As I had pointed out during my prediction for this game, the one advantage the Chargers had in this game was at quarterback, and it sure showed.  Rivers, while playing against a far superior defense, played far better than Dalton.  Dalton had plenty of opportunities to win this game, or at least make it close, but he produced far too many costly turnovers, all of which could have been easily avoided.  However, not all the blame should be placed solely on Dalton’s shoulders.  The Bengals offense, as a whole, simply could not produce against a relatively mediocre San Diego defense.  Ultimately, the Bengals defense played just about as well as you would have expected (ignoring the garbage-time touchdown at the end of the game), especially considering the fact that they were consistently put in tough spots after turnovers.  The Chargers have an interesting matchup ahead of them.  Don’t expect an easy game for the Broncos.  Rivalry games are hard enough to predict as it is, but in the playoffs, you never know what will happen. 

San Francisco 49ers defeat Green Bay Packers, 23-20

I guess I whiffed on this prediction, too.  Dawson’s game-winner was 33 yards, not 41 yards (that’s a 24% error!), and I missed the score pretty badly (23-20, not 20-17).  I guess I just don’t know what I’m talking about.  Anyways, in my opinion, this game should not have been this close.  The Niners absolutely dominated the Packers for the entire first quarter, but only came away with a 6-0 lead.  I don’t care how well you’re playing, if you give Aaron Rodgers the ball within striking distance of the lead, he will more often than not take advantage.  And that is just what he did.  When the Packers took the lead in the second quarter, 7-6, you knew that this was going to be a close game.  Rodgers showed that he still had the ability to play against top competition, and he made the Niners defense work for every punt that they forced.  Lacy was also a key player for the Packers, as he displayed his talent, an optimistic sign for the Packers’ future running game.  Unfortunately for Rodgers, he was playing against a superior team.  The Niners have arguably the most talented roster in the league (I am basically only arguing with everyone in Seattle).  Kaepernick played great, and was able to construct a drive at the end of the game that nearly mirrored Drew Brees’s game-winning drive the day before, taking over 4 minutes off the clock, en route to setting up a game-winning field goal. 

One aspect of the game will continue to give Packer players and fans nightmares, just as it has in the past.  The Packers have no answer for Kaepernick’s running ability.  He torched them on the ground for nearly 100 yards, coming up with big plays in key situations.  Many people will point to the Packers’ injury-plagued linebacker core, and I tend to agree with this.  Clay Matthews did not suit up for the game, and when Mike Neal went down, you had a feeling the Packers might be in trouble.  Late in the second quarter, Kaeprnick ran for 42 yards.  In this play, #59, Brad Jones was responsible for containing Kaepernick.  He was not able to, and the San Francisco quarterback ran for a huge gain.  Similarly, on a key 3^rd & 8, with 1:13 left in the game, and with the Niners still out of field goal range, Kaepernick came up with a huge run to move the chains.  If you watch the play, you’ll notice that #55, Andy Mulumba was spying the quarterback, but he simply was not able to contain Kaepernick on the play.  Ultimately, it ended up being a great game.  And, if Micah Hyde would have been able to hold onto a terrible Kaepernick throw late in the 4^th quarter, I and every other analyst would have spent more time talking about how Rodgers and Lacy were able to lead their team to an impressive victory, against a great 49ers team. 

Wild Card Weekend is in the books.  No more bye weeks.  Next weekend, we will get to see the best that the NFL has to offer in the Divisional Playoff Round.  Wild Card Weekend produced three great games for us.  Hopefully we get four more great games this coming weekend.  Stay tuned for my predictions for next week’s games.  I will most likely be posting them on Thursday.  

Wild Card Weekend 2014: My Playoff Predictions

It’s what we look forward to every season, the playoffs.  For better or for worse, the NFL’s single elimination tournament gives every playoff team hope that they can win it all.  While a six seed ensures that you will not see your home fans until next season, it does not eliminate you from Super Bowl contention.  In the recent past, Wild Card teams have made a habit of winning Super Bowls, and with the talent from the 5 and 6 seeds this year (particularly from the NFC), I can see it happening again.  Anyways, I have looked long and hard at these matchups, and I believe I have made some solid predictions for all four games.  Let’s take a look at what I think of the Wild Card Weekend matchups. 

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Colts -1)

Our first matchup of the playoffs is the one I expect to be the most one-sided, even though the Vegas Line for this matchup is the closest of all four games.  The Chiefs got beaten up by the Colts in Kansas City earlier this year, 23-7.  The Colts have homefield, a stronger team, a better quarterback, and a more impressive résumé of wins.  Like I mentioned in my previous post, the Chiefs had one win against a team that finished above .500 this year, and that was the Eagles in Week 3, while Vick was still playing.  Meanwhile, the Colts have racked up wins against the Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers, and Chiefs.  I would be very surprised to see the Chiefs win this game. 

Prediction: The Chiefs score a TD on their opening drive; however the Colts quickly dash any fears of an upset, as Andrew Luck and the Colts cruise by the Chiefs, 27-13

New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

Saturday, 8:10 PM ET (Current Line, Eagles -2.5)

I am having a bit of trouble predicting the outcomes of the two NFC games.  I expect both to be tightly contested matchups.  Both games just have too many question marks.  As I stated in my previous post, I really don’t know what to expect from the Eagles.  They come in as one of the hottest teams in the league, having won 7 of their last 8 games.  However, they barely snuck by the Romo-less Cowboys in Week 17 to clinch the division.  Normally, with all the momentum going for Philadelphia, I would be inclined to pick the Eagles to win.  However, my gut is telling me to go with the Saints.  I’m not sure trusting my gut is a great idea though…

Prediction: Drew Brees throws a TD to Kenny Stills with 13 seconds left on the clock to win a thriller, 38-35

San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Bengals -7)

I tend to agree with the seven point line here.  The Bengals beat the Chargers earlier this year in San Diego, and the Bengals are 8-0 at home this season.  Additionally, the Chargers are definitely the weakest team in the playoffs.  The Bengals have been inconsistent at times, so I don’t expect this to be quite as straight-forward as Cincinnati fans are hoping it will be.  The one thing the Chargers have going for them is their clear advantage at quarterback.  However, this one advantage might be thwarted by some awful weather forecasts for the game (36⁰F with rain and snow).  It will be interesting to see if the underdog role is enough to motivate the Chargers to victory. 

Prediction: The Chargers are down by 3 with 2:30 left in the game, when Rivers slips on the slushy field and fumbles the ball.  Vontaze Burfict picks up the fumble and scores, sealing the deal for Cincinnati.  Bengals win, 27-17

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, 49ers -2.5)

This is the game that I am most looking forward to watching.  With temperatures expected to be around 0 degrees and two great franchises going head-to-head, I expect an exciting game at Lambeau.  The Packers have gotten Rodgers back just in time, and with a game under his belt, it looks like Rodgers has shaken off the rust from his long injury stint.  This matchup is turning into quite a little rivalry, which will hopefully bring out the best of both teams.  You have to think that the bad weather aids the Niners, but the Packers are always tough to beat in Green Bay.  Additionally, they have proven that they have a respectable running game during their time without Rodgers.  However, the Niners are the hottest team in the league right now, having won six games in a row.  I just don’t expect the Niners’ season to end in the first round of the playoffs. 

Prediction: Both defenses step up big, but it is the Niners who escape victorious, as Phil Dawson kicks a game-winning 41 yard field goal with no time remaining.  Niners prevail, 20-17.

Colts, Saints, Bengals, 49ers.  I feel confident with my picks in the AFC; however, I feel as though both NFC games could go either way.  I am just hoping for some exciting football.  Enjoy Wild Card Weekend!

Where I was Right and Where I was Wrong: A Look Back on the 2013 NFL Regular Season

As my dad once said, "The 'experts' aren't better at predicting sports outcomes; they are just the best at explaining why their predictions were wrong."  I'm not sure that was the exact quote, but you get the idea.  Basically, the NFL is a league filled with parity, and you never really know what the outcome of a 16-game season will be.  It's why we keep coming back.  It's why Raider, Lions, and Browns fans haven't totally lost hope yet. It's why defending Super Bowl Champions are required to earn a playoff spot.  It's what makes trying to predict the results of a season, game, or even a single play so exciting.  I couldn't have predicted that the Texans would go 2-14, or that for some reason, a team with Steven Jackson is incapable of making the playoffs (except for during Jackson's rookie season).  The Falcons and Texans looked like strong teams to start the season, but Matt Schaub finally revealed his weaknesses and Matt Ryan was unable to prevent his team from totally falling apart.  The Chiefs stepped up against a weak schedule, and Chip Kelly proved that he was ready for the NFL.  Anyways, it's time to look back on another great NFL regular season.  Let's review my predictions, and then find out where I was right and where I was wrong.  The entire post for my regular season predictions can be found here: http://yummers21.blogspot.com/2013/09/my-2013-nfl-predictions.html

Prediction                            Actual

AFC West                            AFC West

Broncos: 13-3                     Broncos: 13-3

Chargers: 7-9                     Chiefs: 11-5

Chiefs: 6-10                        Chargers: 9-7

Raiders 3-13                       Raiders: 4-12

AFC North                           AFC North

Bengals: 10-6                     Bengals: 11-5

Steelers: 9-7                      Steelers: 8-8

Ravens: 8-8                         Ravens: 8-8

Browns: 6-10                      Browns: 4-12

AFC East                               AFC East

Patriots: 13-3                    Patriots: 12-4

Dolphins: 7-9                          Jets: 8-8

    Jets: 4-12                          Dolphins: 8-8

Bills: 4-12                             Bills: 6-10

AFC South                           AFC South

Colts: 11-5                           Colts: 11-5

Texans: 11-5                       Titans: 7-9

Titans: 6-10                         Jaguars: 4-12

Jaguars: 4-12                      Texans: 2-14

NFC West                            NFC West

    49ers: 12-4                     Seahawks: 13-3

Seahawks: 10-6                     49ers: 12-4

     Rams: 6-10                      Cardinals: 10-6

Cardinals: 5-11                     Rams: 7-9

NFC North                           NFC North

Packers: 11-5                     Packers: 8-7-1

Vikings: 8-8                         Bears: 8-8

Lions: 8-8                             Lions: 7-9

     Bears: 7-9                       Vikings: 5-10-1

NFC South                           NFC South

Falcons: 11-5                   Panthers: 12-4

Saints: 11-5                        Saints: 11-5

Panthers: 7-9                     Falcons: 4-12

Buccaneers: 5-11              Buccaneers: 4-12

NFC East                              NFC East

Redskins: 9-7                     Eagles: 10-6

Cowboys: 9-7                      Cowboys: 8-8

Giants: 9-7                           Giants: 7-9

   Eagles: 6-10                        Redskins: 3-13

Quick Stats:

Average Differential Between Predicted and Actual: 2.2

Correct Predictions: 6

Predictions Within 1 Game: 17

Predictions off by 3 or More Games: 9

Worst Prediction: Texans (Predicted: 11-5, Actual: 2-14)

Playoff Teams: 8/12

Division Winners: 5/8 (4/4 in AFC)

Most Accurately Predicted Division: AFC North (Off by 4 games)

Least Accurately Predicted Division: NFC South + NFC East (Off by 13 games)

At a glance, these stats seem quite mediocre.  Let’s take a look at what transpired this NFL season. 

AFC West

I was pretty accurate with the Broncos and Raiders here.  The Broncos took advantage of being the clear top dog in their division, en route to amassing 13 wins.  Meanwhile, the Raiders showed their expected weaknesses, as a team in total rebuilding mode.  The Chargers were just able to prove me wrong and make the playoffs, thanks to Ryan Succop’s missed field goal in Week 17.  And I whiffed on the Chiefs.  I think I can partly chalk this down to the unexpectedly easy schedule that the AFC West got to play.  The AFC West was blessed with matchups against the AFC South and NFC East this year.  The Chiefs season reminded me of their 2010 campaign.  In 2010, the Chiefs went 10-6, far outplaying their ability.  And there is a striking similarity.  In both 2010 and 2013, the Chiefs recorded exactly one win against a team with an above .500 record.  This season, the Chiefs beat the Eagles, and that was in Week 3, before the Eagles started playing well and back when Vick was still starting.  All five of the Chiefs’ losses came against above .500 teams (Broncos x2, Chargers x2, Colts).  That does not bode well for them if they are trying to make a run in the playoffs. 

AFC North

I was quite pleased with my prediction of the AFC North.  It is also the only division that I was able to correctly predict the final standings.   The Bengals proved to be the class of the North, and the Steelers were right in the playoff mix until the final week (even after starting the season so poorly).  The Ravens proved that they took a step back from last season, by missing the playoffs.  And the Browns were unfortunate not to win more than 4 games.  They were a tough side at times, but significant injuries at quarterback proved too much to handle.  Unfortunately, the poor season led to the firing of Head Coach Rod Chudzinski, which I believe was an awful move.  You have to give a head coach more than one season to succeed.  There is potential for the Browns, but it looks like they will have to start over next season, as they bring in yet another new head coach. 

AFC South

The AFC South was another division where I did quite well, I got the division winner, and had a good prediction of what kind of teams the Titans and Jaguars were.  Luck solidified his spot as a top NFL quarterback by taking his team back to the playoffs again, and made me look smart by grabbing 11 wins on the Colts’ way to the AFC South crown.  Unfortunately, the Texans made me look like a fool, and proved that any team can totally implode in any given NFL season.  Schaub’s weaknesses were exploited this year, as teams realized that intercepting his passes and returning them for TDs were the most effective means of playing defense against the Houston quarterback.  Meanwhile, the Titans showed promise, but also displayed why they were not good enough to be a playoff contender quite yet.  Maybe next year.  And the Jags have a lot of work to do over the off-season.  They will be one of many teams who will be trying to figure out their quarterback situation for the 2014 season. 

AFC East

The Patriots are still top dog in the East.  No surprises there.  The Belichick-Brady machine is too good.  The Dolphins were their biggest threat in the division for most of the season, but were never true contenders in the East.  The Jets must have heard that I did not think much of them this season because they played well for a side that seemed in total disarray heading into last off-season.  Geno Smith proved to be a formidable starting quarterback, and the Jets defense were a force to be reckoned with, especially against the run.  The Bills brought up the back of the division, but were still a stronger side than I expected.  They looked like a solid side for a lot of the season, but the Bills were unable to overcome the uncertainties and injuries at quarterback that plagued their team for most of the season. 

NFC West

The Niners proved me right, by finishing as one of the top teams in the NFL.  Unfortunately, for them (and my prediction) the Seahawks were a little better.  The Seahawks showed just how good they were this season, outdoing even some of their bolder expectations.  The Cardinals also impressed this season.  I knew that Cardinals had made significant improvements, but I was unable to predict that they would be this good.  In the toughest division in the NFL, the Cardinals were unfortunate not to make the playoffs.  The future is bright for Arizona.  However, with Carson Palmer aging, that window of opportunity might be shrinking fast.  The Rams looked spectacular in spurts this season.  They were dominant in games against the Colts, Bears, and Saints.  Unfortunately, they were unable to consistently win.  I believe that the Rams may have been good enough to win some of the weaker divisions in the NFL.  That’s how good the NFC West was this year.  It seems like a long time ago when the NFC West was the weakest division in the NFL, when 7-9 earned the Seahawks a playoff spot in 2010. 

NFC North

The Pack was once again the best team in the NFC North.  Even with Rodgers out for almost half of the season, the Packers were still able to win the division.  They didn’t finish 11-5 as I predicted, but I believe that they would have been right around there, had Rodgers not gone down.  Meanwhile, the Vikings proved that this is a passing league, unable to sustain their playoff caliber from a year ago.  Peterson was good, but Minnesota still needs a quarterback.  The Lions looked like a team destined to win the North, until a monumental collapse led to a nightmarish ending to their season.  Stafford appears to be the right guy for the job, but the Lions have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs next season.  The Bears missed a great opportunity to take the division crown this year.  A miracle pass on 4^th down, late in the 4^th quarter against the Packers doomed them in the final week of the season.  Throughout the season, Jay Cutler did absolutely nothing to prove to me that he is a great quarterback.  When Josh McCown, a perennial NFL backup, comes in and does your job for you, that is never a good sign.  The Bears have two of the best weapons at wide receiver in the NFL.  Any quarterback would be lucky to play in that system. 

NFC South

If you switch my projection for the Panthers and the Falcons, I don’t come out so bad in the South.  I was right when I said that the Panthers were a strong side; however, I was not nearly bold enough in my prediction.  Newton had a great season, and the Panthers team as a whole looked unstoppable at times.  I was spot-on with the Saints.  Brees had another great season to add to his resume, and the Saints look like a team that will be a tough playoff matchup for any opponent in the NFL.  The Bucs showed some promise at times this season, but they are still a little ways off from being a top NFL side.  Like many teams, their success next season will be hanging on whether or not they can figure out their quarterback situation.  The Falcons were one of my lousiest predictions.  Looking back on it, I feel silly for predicting them as division champions.  In the current NFL format, the NFC South champion has never repeated as champion the next season, and often the division is won by a team that had a bad prior season.  With this division crown, in the current format, each member of the NFC South has won the division exactly three times.  A perfect example of NFL parity.  A perfect microcosm of the league as a whole.  Damn, I should have seen that coming…

NFC East

The Redskins proved to be one of my worst predictions.  RGIII looked uncomfortable for most of the season, and the entire team looked dysfunctional at times.  Perhaps another off-season for RGIII to gain some confidence on his repaired knee will do him some good.  I did well with my Cowboys and Giants predictions though.  In classic Cowboys fashion, Dallas failed to make the playoffs by way of a tough divisional loss on the final day of the regular season.  Garret kept his job, and Romo is still a good NFL starter.  It will be another long off-season for the Cowboys.  Will next year finally be their year?  The Giants were actually a tough team to beat towards the end of the season.  Unfortunately, an awful 0-6 start to the season and an awful season for one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league, were far too much to overcome for a Giants team that has historically been an overachieving franchise.  And last but not least, Chip Kelly proved his worth in the NFL.  When Foles took over and the Eagles’ offense started to click, the Eagles began to look like a division champion.  I went into the season not knowing much of what to expect of the Eagles, and I still don’t totally have them figured out.  It will be fun to watch them in the playoffs. 

Additional Predictions:

At the beginning of the season, I predicted Peyton Manning to be the NFL MVP.  This seems a lock.  Good for me.  I also predicted the 49ers over the Bengals in the Super Bowl.  This looks like a decent possibility, but for now, I am just happy to see that both of these teams made the playoffs. 

The NFL postseason is just a couple days away now.  I am excited to see just how far all of these playoff teams will go.  I will be making some playoff predictions later today or tomorrow.  Be sure to look for them!  Maybe I will have more luck with my post-season than my regular season predictions.   Enjoy this weekend of football.  I know I will.  Hopefully next year, a certain Silver and Black team will be attending the post-season festivities as well…