Super Bowl LI Recap

How did Atlanta blow that, and how did New England pull that off? Does this game cement Brady’s status as the greatest of all time? If anything, he’s certainly the most successful of all time. It’s hard to argue with five Super Bowls and some of the greatest passing statistics in league history. Then again, I always preferred Peyton. He was more fun to watch in my very biased opinion. Either way, let’s break down the game, and look deeper into how the Falcons missed their shot at their first Super Bowl in franchise history and how Brady, Belichick, and Kraft were able to grab their 5th.

New England Patriots win Super Bowl LI, defeating the Atlanta Falcons, 34-28 (F/OT)

As expected, the first Super Bowl to go into overtime was a thrilling one. Not as expected, the Falcons were once leading by 25 points in a game that they eventually lost. Atlanta came out in the first half with the same intensity that helped them secure a convincing Conference Championship victory over Green Bay. However, it all fell apart in the second half, as every single chance broke in favor of the Patriots. New England used every scrap of luck to slowly crawl back into the game, eventually winning in overtime. The Patriots finished the game by scoring on their final five possessions. During that same stretch, the Falcons scored zero points. Any score would have been enough, but Atlanta could not find a way to do that. With 4:40 left in the game, with an 8 point lead, the Falcons had the ball at the New England 22 yard line. All Atlanta had to do to grab their first Super Bowl in franchise history was run the ball three times and kick a field goal. Instead, one run, one sack, and one holding call put the Falcons out of field goal range. This sequence decided the game (along with the other hundred opportunities that Atlanta had to put the game away).

Am I bitter? Sure. I like watching a team win for the first time. Watching the Patriots win again was not satisfying for me. And the way they did it was sickening. Of course, the Falcons did this to themselves more than anything. One of the greatest offenses in NFL history could not find a way to score a single point over their final four possessions of the game. Give credit to New England’s defense, though. They stepped up when it mattered most. And give credit to the adjustments that the Patriots made in the fourth quarter. Everything that New England failed to do in the first half, they were able to successfully in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Winning a Super Bowl takes both a lot of skill and a lot of luck. Down the stretch of Super Bowl LI, the Patriots caught all the lucky breaks. An untimely fumble gave the ball back to the Patriots, late in the fourth quarter, when New England was still down by two scores. Ryan got sacked in a crucial fourth quarter series when the Falcons were up by eight points, which took Atlanta out of field goal range. Edelman made an unbelievable catch on what should have been a game-sealing interception. The Patriots were able to convert both of their 2 point conversions. And the Patriots won the overtime coin toss, allowing them to get the ball first, and not allowing Matt Ryan to touch the ball again.

It’s easy to say that the Patriots were lucky to win this one, but you could say that about just about every Super Bowl Champion. Just making it to the Super Bowl is a fortunate feat. Lucky bounces and spectacular plays are what get you there, along with with having the ability of a top team. And finally, when you get to the biggest game of the season, actually winning the Super Bowl can be a total crapshoot, where one lucky or unlucky play can ultimately decide your fate. So, is Brady the greatest ever? Again, five Super Bowls is hard to argue with. But, he just as easily could have won 4, 3, 2, 1, or none. Similarly, he just as easily could have won all seven of his Super Bowl appearances. In all of Brady’s seven Super Bowl trips, I can find one moment that could have swung history either in favor of or against the Patriots.

In 2001, Brady and the Patriots could have easily lost to the Raiders in the Divisional Round had it not been for the “tuck rule,” and two incredibly difficult Vinatieri field goals in the snow. Brady and the Patriots went on to win Super Bowl XXXVI against the heavily favored Rams, and I went on to be a sad Raider fan. In Super Bowl XXXVIII and Super Bowl XXXIX, the Patriots defeated the Panthers and Eagles, respectively by a single field goal in two incredibly close games. In Super Bowl XLII, the helmet catch helped the heavily underdogged New York Giants stun the Patriots, and keep New England from finishing the season at a perfect 19-0. In Super Bowl XLVI, the Patriots once again lost to the Giants, who were once again big underdogs. In Super Bowl XLIX, if it hadn’t been for an incredible Malcolm Butler interception, the Patriots would not have defeated the Seahawks. And of course, everything went right for the Patriots in Super Bowl LI, when they were able to overcome a seemingly insurmountable 25 point deficit, to stun the Atlanta Falcons.

Every playoff run has its moment that swings a team’s fortune. Often, those moments are in the Super Bowl itself. Every Super Bowl that Brady has ever played in was decided by one score. Any bit of luck can flip a one score game on its head. Five out of seven times that luck went Brady’s way. However, no matter what way you look at it, Brady has accomplished more than any other player in NFL history. That’s a fact. Whether you attribute all the success to Brady’s ability, Belichick’s system, Kraft’s ownership, a combination of the three, or just dumb luck, this is the greatest NFL dynasty of all time. For that reason alone, any one of the significant players in the last fifteen years for the Patriots (Kraft, Belichick, and Brady) must be at least considered the greatests of all time at their respective positions. So, congratulations to the Patriots. New England celebrates again, as the rest of the football world mourns another Patriots Super Bowl, their fifth in fifteen years.

So, I guess this is goodbye until next year. I finish this playoffs 8-3 straight up and 5-6 ATS. Not great. Mediocrity will not be tolerated next playoffs. I will have to intensify my NFL research this off-season and next regular season, so that I may improve on this disappointing season of NFL predictions. For now, Brosh Knows Football will go into hibernation for the Spring, as I look forward to next season. Aww, beautiful “next season.” At the end of every NFL playoffs, next season is always the best thing to look forward to for 31 NFL teams, as next season presents new hope for every NFL fan. For me, next season will hopefully bring an end to the Raiders’ 15 year playoff victory drought. With that in mind, I’ll see all you NFL fans next season, where hope is infinite… though so is the potential for disappointment.

Super Bowl LI Prediction

At the beginning of the season, I predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would defeat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl LI. Of course, that prediction came up just short, as both the Steelers and Packers lost in their respective Conference Championship games. It seems like just yesterday that I was making that Super Bowl prediction, along with the rest of my regular season predictions. Now, 5 months later, I get to make my final prediction of the NFL season. The Super Bowl. The two last teams standing will lay it on the line, all in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl LI @ NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

New England Patriots (14-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Sunday, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -3.0)

Super Bowl LI will feature arguably the two best quarterbacks from the 2016 regular season. Atlanta’s offense was historically good this year, racking up a total of 540 points over the course of the regular season, 71 more than any other team in the league and 7th most all time. Ryan was the centerpiece of this historically good offense, finishing with an NFL record 9.26 yards per attempt. Of course, with rule changes, NFL passing numbers have been improving across the league for years now, but that stat is still very impressive. Ryan has done it by distributing the ball well to all his receivers and both of his premier tailbacks, Coleman and Freeman, who combined for 85 catches this season. Sanu and Gabriel have also been great compliments to Julio Jones, taking some of the attention away from the standout wide receiver, allowing him to work in single coverage more often.

The Patriot offense will do their best to keep pace with the Falcons. Fortunately for New England, they were also to put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this season, as well. The Patriots combined for 32 passing touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions (Brady: 28 TDs, 2 INTs) this season, which is just insane. Even the best quarterbacks have some bad luck sometimes on tipped balls or incredible defensive plays, but New England’s quarterbacks have been able to almost avoid that entirely. Meanwhile, Belichick’s usual running back by committee approach has once again proven effective. Lewis and White have been great receiving backs, and Blount has been the steady bruising back that keeps defenses honest against the passing game.The Patriot offense is a well oiled machine, and they should be up to the task on Sunday. With two prolific offenses on display, every possession will be valuable, as every offensive series that ends without points will be considered a failure.

While the focus will mostly be on the offenses, the defenses will do their best to show that they are worthy of their Super Bowl trip as well. Statistically, the Patriots have had far and away the better defense of the two teams this season, ranking first in the league in points allowed. However, that defense has not exactly been challenged. The Patriots have faced none of the top 10 quarterbacks (based on QB rating) all season, including the post-season. Roethlisberger was the highest rated quarterback they faced all year, ranking 11th in the league. Still, they faced NFL-caliber teams every week, so their great defensive numbers cannot be totally disregarded. Additionally, their best ability has been defending the run. If they can slow down Freeman and Coleman, and make Atlanta one-dimensional, New England may be able to give Matt Ryan some trouble.

As for the other defensive unit, the Falcon defense ranks near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories. However, I believe this is an underrated unit that should be able to give Brady some trouble. The Falcons are coming off a Conference Championship game where they were able to totally shut down Rodgers and the rest of the Packer offense, especially if you don’t consider the garbage time stats that Green Bay accumulated when they game was already out of reach. The Falcons were able to keep the Packers from scoring over the entire first half. Of course, they were helped by a missed field goal and a timely redzone turnover. Still, this defensive unit has proven that it has the potential to play well. They will need to be at their best if they hope to keep the New England offense in check. With the talent that they have on the offensive side of the ball, holding the Patriots to 24, or maybe even 30 points could be enough to win Atlanta their first ever Super Bowl.

Prediction: We get an unexpected defensive battle in the first quarter, as both teams fail to register a touchdown over the first fifteen minutes. Even when Ryan throws an early interception, the Patriots are only able to cash in with a field goal. However, as the half wears on, we get more of what we expected, as both offenses begin to light it up. Ryan and Brady trade touchdowns, and the run game is quietly forgotten for both teams, as quarterbacks reign supreme. As the first half comes to a close, New England holds the slight edge, 16-13. The Falcons score immediately after halftime, taking their first lead of the game at 20-16. The game remains close, deep into the fourth quarter. With 2:37 remaining in the Super Bowl, the Falcons have the ball, trailing by three points. Ryan leads Atlanta down the field masterfully, setting up first and goal with 42 seconds remaining. Three incompletions lead to a 4th and Goal from the 5 yard line. On 4th down, Ryan is flushed out of the pocket and, in desperation, he throws the ball towards the endzone. Malcolm Butler is in position for the game-sealing interception, but the ball bounces right off his hands and into the waiting arms of Mohamed Sanu for the touchdown. The Patriots are unable to score on the ensuing drive. Falcons win Super Bowl LI, 34-30.

So, there you have it. Atlanta will be your Super Bowl Champions for the first time ever! Awesome. But who cares about that?! What’s important is all those enticing prop bets. Here are all of my “Can’t Lose” wagers that are sure to make you lots of money. Everyone should find their sports bookie right now and bet all of their life’s savings on the following outcomes:

Coin Toss: Heads or Tails (Even Bet)

Heads. This is an easy call. Look at this data:

If you don’t see the obvious trend, then you just aren’t smart enough.

Will Luke Bryan be Wearing a Hat when he Appears on Screen Before Singing the U.S. National Anthem? (Even Bet)

Yes. Never in my life have I seen Luke Bryan without a hat on. Maybe he’s balding and hiding the shame, or maybe I’ve never seen him.

First Offensive Play of the Game (Run -150, Pass +120)

Pass. I like going with the underdog here. These offenses are going to want to get out fast. I expect passes early and often.

Longest Touchdown Yardage in the Game (Over/Under: 52.5)

Under. I expect two bend but don’t break defenses on display. Lots of scoring but no long ones.

Total Turnovers (Over/Under: 1.5)

Over. There will be one interception and one fumble. 1 + 1 = 2. 2 > 1.5. Take that to the bank.

Total Points (Over/Under: 57.5)

Over. 34 + 30 = 64. 64 > 59.0.

Total Number of Penalties in the Game by both teams (Over/Under: 12.5)

Under. Nobody likes penalties in the Super Bowl. Refs will be keeping those yellow rags in their pockets.

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?

Odds:

Clear/Water +300
Lime/Green +300
Yellow +300
Orange +300
Red +500
Blue +750
Purple +1000

Orange. They won’t waste a good flavor on the coach. I expect an Orange shower.

Super Bowl MVP

Odds:

Tom Brady: 3/2
Matt Ryan: 7/4
Julio Jones: 11/2
Field: 10/1

Matt Ryan. Getting the field at 10/1 is tempting, but this will be Ryan all the way. Regular Season MVP. Super Bowl Champion. Super Bowl MVP. That’s a pretty solid season for Matty Ice.

Enjoy Super Bowl LI. I’ll be back next week with the season’s final installation of Brosh Knows Football. It’s been a great year of football. Hopefully we get one more great game.