Well, it happened. The unthinkable. The
underdogs won again, and this time, they did it against the best team in the
NFL. I missed my prediction straight up and against the spread, but I don’t
care! Feeling wrong feels amazing when it is at the expense of the goddamn
Patriots. Unless you are a fan of New England, Super Bowl LII was an all-time
great. If anyone cares, I finished the 2018 playoffs with a record of 3-8
straight up (WOW, THAT’S BAD!) and 5-5-1 (WOW, THAT’S MEDIOCRE!). Maybe... just
maybe, knowing how badly my predictions had gone in the 2018 playoffs so far, I
decided to purposely choose the Patriots, knowing that I would be wrong again.
Maybe I knew that I could sabotage New England by picking them to win the Super
Bowl. Just maybe this was my plan all along...
Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LII,
defeating the New England Patriots, 41-33
What a game. This game had nearly everything,
from record-breaking offensive fireworks to bold calls and entertaining trick
plays. Doug Pederson did everything he could to show he could coach against the
best in the game, and he did a phenomenal job of it, arguably out-coaching
Belichick on the NFL’s biggest stage. Both defenses were nearly non-existent,
making every possession seem incredibly crucial. If one team didn’t score on a
drive, the other was a near certainty to either extend the lead or close the
gap within minutes of getting the ball. In the entire game, there was only 1
punt! Meanwhile, missed field goals and extra points made the scoreboard
entertainingly odd, showcasing the importance of plays we usually take for
granted. Ultimately, the Eagles won because they refused to let up.
Philadelphia was not the first team in the Brady-Belichick era to outplay New
England in the opening half of a playoff game. In fact, in every Super Bowl the
Patriots have won, the game was so close, that Tom Brady had to lead New
England on a game-winning drive in the 4th quarter or overtime. However, in
this game, the Eagles simply refused to let the Patriots get back into
the game easily.
Philadelphia kept with their aggressive play
calling, even when they had a ten point lead in the second half. When New
England got the ball back, they would be forced to use all their best plays to
manufacture points, in order to just to keep within striking distance of a
seemingly unstoppable Philadelphia offense. When the Patriots finally took the
lead late in the fourth quarter, the Eagles were able to immediately respond
with a touchdown, on a drive that saw them convert a 4th down in their own
territory and score a touchdown on a 3rd down and 7. With the offense playing
at such a high level, all it would take was one big play on defense to win the
game for the Eagles, and that’s exactly what they got when Brandon Graham
recorded the only sack of the game, strip sacking Brady in the biggest moment
on the biggest stage. After that, Elliot was able to calmly convert a clutch
field goal, before the defense was called on one final time to keep New England
out of the end zone on their final desperation drive. And with that, the Eagles
became Super Bowl champions.
While the game was wildly entertaining, it also
got me thinking about a couple different aspects of the NFL...
Replay is Driving me Crazy
One of my thoughts coming out of the game was
how frustratingly annoying replay has become in the NFL. In every NFL game,
after every big play, my first thought is always to check the replay (well,
right after I check the field for flags), in order to make sure the spectacular
play I just saw was actually completed successfully. Every time something
incredible happens, my excitement is curbed until the refs review and announce
the result of the replay. On Sunday, a Corey Clement touchdown catch was
subjected to a long review.
Clement appeared to catch the ball with both
feet in bounds; however, he made a small adjustment with the ball after his
feet left the ground. So, when did he have possession? When the ball first hit
his hands, or when he fully secured the ball while bracing for impact with the
ground? When I saw that play, I saw Clement catch the ball while keeping both
feet in bounds. Sure, he adjusted the ball while falling to the ground, but I subjectively
saw him make a spectacular play and catch the ball in real-time. Meanwhile,
when the play is slowed down to frame-by-frame speeds, where every moment of
the catch can be scrutinized on a timeline that is not realistic, it appeared
that he bobbled it before regaining control with only one foot inbounds. Still,
I saw a catch. However, in my mind, based on the current rules, I thought it
would be overturned. To my shock, I was wrong.
Later in the game, Zach Ertz scored what would
eventually be the game-winning touchdown. However, once again, the stadium held
their breath as the referees went to the video to watch the replay. This one
was more obvious to me. On a play that was quickly drawing comparisons to a
similar Jesse James incompletion in a regular season game between the Steelers
and the Patriots, I saw some stark differences. As the refs went under the
hood, Michaels and Collinsworth began to analyze the catch like a complicated
problem, rather than a simple football play.
For the play to be ruled a catch, Ertz must
secure possession and make a football move to become a runner, before that he
is just a catcher. I know what you’re thinking, aren’t receivers runners and
catches? Well, no. For most of the play Ertz is a runner, then for about 0.5
seconds he exclusively becomes a catcher. In this meta-phase, he is
immune to helmet-to-helmet hits, which is nice because during this brief moment
he must secure the ball without any sort of bobbling. At the end of this brief
half second, he once again becomes a runner, which is kind of like losing your
super powers. Now, defensive players have the right to force fumbles and
concuss Ertz to their heart’s delight. However, the catch becomes more
complicated when Ertz begins to head for the ground. Did he become a runner
before diving for the end zone? If so, when the ground dislodges the ball, it
is a fumble. Otherwise, if he was a catcher when he began to fall to the
ground, he must “survive the ground,” which is possibly the most obnoxious
phrase in the NFL. If he does not “survive the ground” and the ball is bobbled
while making contact with the ground, then the play will be ruled an incomplete
pass. Thankfully, the refs saw this play for what it was. Ertz caught the ball,
and took three steps before diving into the end zone. However, the fact that
this play was even reviewed, and the fact that it was reviewed for so long,
still annoys the heck out of me. Ertz obviously caught the ball, but the
over-complicated catch rules gave every fan doubt, up until the moment the refs
announced their decision.
What’s the Value of a Quarterback?
This season, not just the Super Bowl, got me
thinking more about the value of the quarterback position. I’ve always been
skeptical of just how important a good quarterback is to the success of a team.
Of course, the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but
attributing the wins and losses of an entire team to this one position always
seemed like a bit of a stretch to me. There is no denying that Brady is a great
quarterback, but would he have been this successful had he started his career
on any team other than the Patriots? If Brady was drafted first overall by
Cleveland, would he have still had a successful career? Of course, maybe he
would have eventually found a better fit than the Browns through free agency;
however, whether or not he eventually found success, I believe it may have been
a longer, less comfortable path for one of the greatest to ever play the
position, if he had had the misfortune of starting his career in Cleveland.
I like to ponder these things because there is
no simple answer. There are so many examples of unexpected success in the NFL.
Goff was horrible last season but amazing this season. Can this all be
attributed to McVay taking over for Fisher as Head Coach, or was Goff always
going to see a drastic improvement during his sophomore season? Mike Glennon
played well in Tampa Bay for a season, before the Bears decided to scoop him
up. He was relegated to the bench before the first quarter of the season was
over. Would a longer leash and/or a better scheme have allowed him to succeed
in Chicago? Case Keenum was a mediocre journeyman of the NFL before landing the
starting job in Minnesota. In his one season for the Vikings, he finished
second in the league in QBR, behind only Carson Wentz. Was this because of the
great talent on the Minnesota roster, or was Keenum finally allowed to succeed
in a system that fit his playing style? Matt Cassel led the Patriots to 11 wins
when Brady suffered a season-ending torn ACL. That solid play earned him a nice
contract with the Kansas City Chiefs. Since that 11-5 season, Cassel has
amassed a record of 26-40, not very good. Was Cassel a bad quarterback in a
good situation in New England, or was he a good quarterback in the wrong
systems during his time in Dallas and Kansas City?
What other factors contribute to a quarterback’s
success? Obviously a better team helps. So, maybe another major factor is
simply how much a quarterback gets paid. For most teams, you have to pay top
dollar for a great quarterback. So, when a team finds a quarterback performing
above his pay-grade, that team suddenly has a great opportunity to succeed.
Because of the hard salary cap in the NFL, the difference between a quarterback
who makes $800,000/year and one that makes $20+ million/year is staggeringly
significant. With a cheap quarterback, you can build a team of great players.
With an expensive quarterback, you must make sacrifices at other positions, in
order to keep him under contract.
Russell Wilson led Seattle to two Super Bowls
when he was making less than $1 million/year. In each of his first three
seasons, Wilson led Seattle to at least 11 wins. In the three seasons after
receiving his $20+ million/year contract, the Seahawks have failed to win more
than 10 games, and have also failed to make it past the Divisional Round of the
playoffs. Similarly, after winning Super Bowl XLVII, Joe Flacco was awarded
with a monster contract of his own. In the four seasons since that Super Bowl
win, the Ravens have only made the playoffs once, failing to advance past the
Divisional Round. After leading the Raiders to a surprisingly successful 12-4
record in 2016, Derek Carr (who was considered a strong MVP candidate before
breaking his leg) received a big contract extension. In the following
season , Carr finished 20th in total QBR, as the Raiders finished 6-10
with a roster that saw very few changes in the off-season.
While these are all a bit anecdotal, the point
I’m trying to make is that a team is far more than just their quarterback, and
this season was great proof of that. Drew Brees (by his standards) had a down
year in 2017, but the Saints as a whole had their best season since 2011
anyways. Ryan was far worse that his MVP-self last season, but the Falcons were
still able to win a playoff game, in a season where Ryan failed to throw three
touchdown passes in any single game. The two best defenses (Jacksonville and
Minnesota) were featured in the Conference Championship games this year, even
though they both had quarterbacks considered to be quite mediocre by most NFL
analysts and fans.
Football is a team game that is incredibly
difficult to analyze on a player-by-player basis. And even if you are able to
isolate one player, and see how he performs in a specific situation, you still
may not be able to make a proper evaluation of his skills. Maybe a defensive
back is an elite zone player but a mediocre man-to-man player. Maybe a lineman
shines in a 3-4 defense, rather than a 4-3. Maybe a running back plays better
behind a zone-blocking scheme. Maybe a quarterback needs to play in a system that
hides his poor arm strength, while highlighting is superb cognitive abilities.
Maybe there simply isn’t enough data to make a proper assessment of every NFL
player, especially when the average NFL career is only about 4 to 5 seasons.
It is for all these reasons, that I believe it
is at least permissible for me to have the opinion that Peyton Manning was a
better quarterback than Tom Brady (queue the angry New England fans). There is
no doubting that Brady is the most successful NFL quarterback player of
all-time. However, I saw both Manning and Brady play. Brady won more games, but
Manning was simply the better player. Manning revolutionized the position,
making pre-snap just as interesting as the play itself. By analyzing the
defense, making the proper audibles, and using the proper misdirection, Manning
was able to take advantage of the weaknesses in any defensive formation. He
would dissect the defense before the snap, and then make a wildly accurate
throw. While Brady certainly has these skills as well, no one was better at it
than Manning.
Prop Bets!
Finally, if you care at all about how my prop
bets went, you will be happy to know that I got 4 out of 6 correct.
Correct Picks:
- Length of National Anthem:
Pink’s National Anthem was well below 2 minutes, clocking in at 1:53.
- Total Score: The total score was 74
points, well above the betting line of 48.
- Color of Liquid Thrown on Winning Coach: I
correctly predicted the Lemon-Lime gatorade. Of course, I also predicted
that it would be poured on the other coach. Oh well.
- Winner of the Puppy Bowl: I heard Team Fluff dominated,
and I was also told that Bear was named MVP.
Incorrect Picks:
- Coin Toss:
After a four year drought, Heads was able to take the W in the biggest
coin toss of the year.
- First Player to Score: Jeffrey was the first player into the end zone on Sunday, as my pick Ajayi, never scored.
Well, that’s a wrap from season number 52 of the
NFL’s Super Bowl era. The Eagles claimed their first title, as the list of
Super Bowl-less teams fell from 13 to 12 this season. While a majority of teams
in the league have tasted Super Bowl glory, the Bengals, Bills, Browns,
Cardinals, Chargers, Falcons, Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Titans and
Vikings still must wait. But who knows?! Maybe next season will once again be
the season of the underdog. Maybe next season, one more team will cross their
name off the list of teams without a Super Bowl victory.
