Wednesday, September 5, 2018

2018 NFL Season Preview: NFC West

The NFC West is clearly one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. After one decent season, everyone thinks McVay’s revamped Rams are going to be the next dynasty (spoiler, they’re not!). The Seahawks have been slowly drifting towards irrelevance, as their once great defense continues to deteriorate from their past glory. The 49ers have put all of their hope into one handsome quarterback. And the window for success has finally closed on the Cardinals. It’s slim pickings in the West this year, but I guess I still have to ask… So, who will win this horrible division?

Los Angeles Rams (Last Season: 11-5)
2018 Prediction: 11-5
The defense was great last season. The offense was incredible. The roster is young. And the coach is innovative. There is little reason to think the Rams can’t at least repeat last season’s performance. The impressive thing about the Rams in 2017 is that they were probably even better than their 11-5 record would indicate. Of their five losses, only two were by more than a single score. One of those was against the Vikings in Minnesota (their only road loss of the season), and the other was during their meaningless Week 17 game, in which they rested all their starters. The Rams had the third best point differential in the league, behind only the Patriots and Eagles, and they almost certainly would have led the league in that category had they not virtually forfeited their Week 17 game.

Still, I’m hesitant to predict that they will improve upon last season’s 11 wins. The NFL is a parity driven league, and the Rams’ signal caller has still only played one full season in the NFL. This will be a critical year for Goff. Being successful for one season is much easier than doing it for multiple seasons in a row.  Fortunately for him, the offense still features weapons such as Gurly, Cooks, Cupp, and Woods. While the receivers are certainly not the best in the league, Gurly is definitely one of the best running backs in the league. Both confidence and expectations will be high in Los Angeles this season.

San Francisco 49ers (Last Season: 6-10)
2018 Prediction: 9-7
Fine, I’ll get on the hype train. Well, I think I’ll keep one leg dangling off the train for the moment. I’m not ready to predict that the Niners will make the playoffs, but I am happy to at least put them back in contention. Jimmy G certainly showed that he could play last season, but now we need to see if he can continue his impressive start to his NFL career against higher quality teams. During San Francisco’s 5 game winning streak which ended their 2017 campaign, they were able to defeat Bears, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Rams. While the wins against the Jaguars and Titans were somewhat impressive (assuming you respect the AFC South), the other three against the horrible Bears, Texans, and second string Rams were not impressive at all. Of course, if Garoppolo leads the Niners to a victory in Minnesota in Week 1, I may have to change my tune. Until then, I am not ready to go all in on Jimmy G.

Beyond the quarterback, this team has some unresolved issues. Their star running back McKinnon just went down with a season-ending knee injury, which leaves the running game in the hands of a washed up Alfred Morris and a questionably talented Matt Breida. On the defensive side of the ball, while the Niners have made some serious improvements, some of those improvements come with risk. The main concern is Foster, who is an incredible talent; however, he will be suspended for at least two games to start the season. The rest of the defense has some serious potential, but for the most part, their ability remains a relative unknown for San Francisco. That being said, with young talent and a quarterback that can be relied upon, this team is certainly headed in the right direction.

Seattle Seahawks (Last Season: 9-7)
2018 Prediction: 7-9
The Seahawks are slowly crumbling back into nothingness. The Legion of Boom is dead, as the defense is nearly unrecognizable from its heyday. Russell Wilson continues to run for his life, behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And this team still can’t figure out how to run the ball. Last season, Mike Davis led all Seattle running backs with 240 rushing yards. 240! In the history of the NFL, 18 running backs have rushed for more yards than that IN A SINGLE GAME. As you may have guessed, Seattle’s leading rusher last year was Wilson with 586 yards.

Wilson has certainly proven that he is an incredible dual threat quarterback, but if he continues to receive no help from his running backs, this offense is doomed. In past years, the Seahawks could at least rely on their incredible defense to pick up the slack; however, their defense is no longer the dominant unit that it once was. Last season, Seattle ranked 13th in scoring defense and 11th in overall defense. That’s pretty mediocre. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, this is a consequence of how the NFL’s structure naturally forces parity upon the league. During Seattle’s best years, Wilson, along with many prominent defensive players, were on very team-friendly deals, relative to their value. Once the rookie deals and undervalued contracts ended, the team began to run out of cap room to attract/keep top talent. So, Seattle has slowly faded away, returning to the form of an average team. With a quarterback like Wilson though, they should be able to remain in at least the middle tier of teams. However, a couple bad games could see them completely tumble out of playoff contention.

Arizona Cardinals (Last Season: 8-8)
2018 Prediction: 4-12
So begins the rebuild of the Arizona Cardinals. I like what this team is setting up to do, but I think the benefits are still at least a year away. The Cardinals will smartly start Sam Bradford at quarterback this season, giving Rosen some time to learn the offense and adjust to the speed of the NFL, without losing all of his confidence during what is sure to be an atrocious season for Arizona. If you have read my blog before, you know that I am a strong proponent of letting your rookie quarterback sit for the first year of his NFL career, and that is no different with the Cardinals. Rosen appears to have some great potential, but there is simply no reason to let him get thrown around by superior teams all season.

One of the main reasons that I like Arizona’s chances at having near-future success is that they finished with the 6th best overall defense in the NFL last season. This is a young and talented defensive side that is currently excelling. If the defense can continue to improve over the next couple of seasons, it may give the offense enough time to develop into a respectable unit. Fortunately, the Cardinals feature many emerging talents on the offensive side of the ball, such as Josh Rosen, David Johnson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and DJ Humphries. A quarterback certainly doesn’t make the whole team, but I will say that I am looking forward to what Josh Rosen can do with this solid roster in the future. With this much talent around him, I think he will probably have a smooth transition into the NFL when he eventually makes his first start.

So, as you can see, the NFC West is horrible. I wonder if the NFC North is any good…

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