My 2014 NFL Predictions

I'm back! I'm sure my many (few) readers of my blog have been anxiously (indifferently) waiting for me to come out with my NFL regular season predictions. Well, here they are! 32 teams. 32 airtight, unbiased, unadulterated opinions. I always enjoy looking at every team and trying to determine where they all stack up against each other, mainly because it is an unreasonable task for someone who does not work as a sports writer. My formula is somewhat simple; it has to be when you predict the record of every single team in the NFL. So naturally, I am going to overlook many factors. Some of these factors include: strength of schedule (which are hard to predict because they are based on the future strength of a team's schedule), future injuries (which are hard to predict because they happen in the future), and breakout stars (which are hard to predict because I am not an NFL scout). This is obviously not an all-inclusive list. However, the entertainment comes from making predictions and then looking back on the season in 17 weeks to see how my opinions of all 32 teams have changed over the course of one NFL season. So, let's cherish the unpredictability of the season that is ahead of us.

It is truly the best time of the year. The beginning of the NFL season provides every franchise with a clean slate, an undefeated record. Once again, the sorry fans of teams like the Raiders, Browns, and Jaguars rejoice, as a season of limitless possibilities is about to begin. I, like so many other fans, am currently blinded by that beautiful “0” in the loss column. It is truly magnificent. That “0” represents the limitless potential of every franchise in the NFL. So, who will it be this year? For now, the Seahawks are the champions of the NFL, until someone can prove otherwise. And, while there is only one true mark of success in the NFL season – that being the Lombardi Trophy – there are many unexpected story lines still yet to unfold. Who will take the fall from grace this year, like last year's Falcons and Texans? Which team will take a surprise turn towards relevance, like last year's Panthers? Will the Brady-led Patriots ever relinquish the NFC East crown? Will the NFC South continue its unpredictable trends? Will big contract quarterbacks prove their worth? How many Raider games will I go to this year? These are all the questions that we, as NFL fans, will all be mulling over this season.

So, I have returned from my off-season slumber with a vigor and excitement of what is to come. With a mere 17 weeks of regular season football left to play, I will try to decipher what is sure to happen this season. I have done my best to analyze the teams, evaluate the off-season, look over schedules, and not watch a single preseason game. I feel prepared to bare the fruits of my labor, an unprecedented knowledge of what is sure to happen in an unpredictable NFL world. Anyways, let's get right into it. We have 32 teams to dissect. Playoff teams are shown in bold. Let's start with the AFC.

AFC West

Broncos: 12-4

No surprises here. Denver is easily the team to beat in the West and possibly the NFL (calm down Seattle fans). Manning still has the best weapons in the NFL and the defense acquired some guy named Talib over the off-season The only question you might be asking is, “Why only 12 wins?” Well, the AFC West has a tough schedule this year, with match ups against the NFC West and AFC East. The Broncos have a tough road ahead of them, but expect Denver to be vying for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs towards the end of the season.

Chargers: 8-8

Well played, San Diego. Last year, I declared that only a complete overhaul would make the Chargers a playoff team again. Obviously, I was wrong. Rivers had a career year, playing great while on a team that I still think had no business being in the playoffs. Charger fans will be hoping that Flowers provides a solid improvement to their secondary, but I don't know if San Diego is strong enough to play with the best teams this year. The Chargers play everyone tough, but a difficult schedule and a team that failed to make significant improvements has me predicting a mediocre, playoff-less season. Prove me wrong again, San Diego. Prove me wrong again.

Chiefs: 6-10

I will admit that I am very stubborn when it comes to my predictions. I refuse to accept the Chiefs as a top team in the NFL. I predicted them at 6-10 last year, and I am predicting them there again. The Chiefs have only gotten worse this off-season.  It will be interesting to see how they fair against the powerhouse that is the NFC West this year. I know I have mentioned this stat before, but the Chiefs won only one game against an above .500 team last year, the Eagles (and this was when Vick was still the starter). Jamaal Charles is a great all-purpose back, but is the rest of the team good enough to make this Kansas City team a playoff squad? I am one of many people that do not believe in the ability of Alex Smith as a top NFL quarterback. I will admit, Smith did prove his potential against the Colts in the wild card round of the playoffs last year (even though they lost), but one game does not prove a player's worth. A great quarterback is one that is great on a consistent basis. Let's see if Kansas City can prove their worth again this year.

Raiders: 5-11

That's right! I have incredibly high hopes for my Raiders this year! FIVE WINS! A one win improvement from last year. I know what you're thinking, “Adam, are you insane? That would be a MONUMENTAL improvement from last year!” Well, call me an optimist, but I even considered predicting 6 wins for the Silver and Black. Anyways, the Raiders added “veteran leadership” to the team this year, which is slang for, “old, washed-up players that happened to play for a Super Bowl Champion once upon a time.” Meanwhile, MJD was added to the Raider's list of “old running backs that spend most of their time injured.” I was hoping that Schaub would be able to take over for at least a year, but I just found out that Derek Carr has been named the starter. Even though I only viewed Schaub as a temporary place-holder, I didn't want the Raiders to be forced to send in Derek Carr right away. I was hoping the Raiders could start building a respectable team before Derek Carr tried to be Oakland's savior. Anyways, who knows what the Silver and Black are in for now? I will consider this season a success if the Raiders do not fire head coach Dennis Allen. Go Raiders.

AFC North

Steelers: 10-6

Last year, the Steelers finished as one of the hottest teams in the league. After starting 0-4, the Steelers managed to finish at 8-8, thanks to winning their last three games in a row. And, if it weren't for a missed Ryan Succop field goal in Week 17, they would have been in the playoffs. This prediction largely comes from the fact that I don't think the rest of the teams in this division have done enough to establish themselves as the top team in the AFC North. The Steelers are a consistently strong side, and I expect them to take advantage of a division that has no clear favorite to win the division crown. The loss of Emmanuel Sanders definitely hurts, but the Steelers still have a strong receiving core for Big Ben to throw to, with a workhorse in Le'Veon Bell in the backfield. The AFC North will be one of the top divisions once again this year, even though they might not have one of the top 6 or 7 teams in the league.

Bengals: 9-7

Is this team really as good as last year would have suggested? I was a believer of the Bengals at the beginning and end of the regular season last year, but an ugly loss to the San Diego Chargers in the wild card round of the playoffs had me second guessing their ability. Andy Dalton just got a big contract extension, and it will be interesting to see just how much talent the Bengals had to sacrifice on the rest of their roster for Dalton's new cap hit. The Bengals should still be a tough defense to break down, but is the A.J. Green show going to be enough to keep this offense moving up and down the field? Only time will tell. Right now I have them sneaking into the playoffs, as the 6^th seed. I expect this division to be decided on the final week of the regular season.

Ravens: 8-8

Different year. Same prediction. The Ravens will serve as my benchmark for mediocrity once again this year. I expect the Ravens to be a tough game for just about any team, but I think the playoffs are bit out of reach for the Flacco-led side. The AFC North is a tough division top to bottom, and all of Baltimore's divisional games should be a tough test. Fortunately for the Ravens and the rest of the AFC North, they are matched up against the AFC South this year, perhaps the weakest division in the NFL right now. However, I don't see Baltimore having quite enough to make a significant impact on the season. Flacco is a middle tier quarterback who commands a middle tier team. 8-8 seems just right.

Browns: 5-11

I think the Browns took a step backwards this year. Even though I predict them to finish with one more win than last year, I am really referring to the fact that this was a team on the rise. Now, I see them as a team that is still very far from challenging for a playoff spot. This prediction would have been different had the Browns not fired Rob Chudzinski at the end of last season. This has nothing to do with what I think of Chudzinski or Mike Pettine as head coaches. Honestly, I know very little about their coaching ability. However, I am a firm believer in the value of coaching consistency. Chudzinski had less than a year with the team before he was let go. And, in my opinion, he was doing a great job, dealing with quarterback injuries and playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. One of my worries for Cleveland is that Hoyer might not have a long enough leash because of the guy that is sitting right behind him on the depth chart (you may have heard of him). If the Browns lose their first few games, the fans may start calling for a QB switch, which is never good for a team that is already set to have a pretty tough season.

AFC South

Colts: 12-4

Twelve wins might seem like a bold prediction for the Colts, but this may be the weakest division in the NFL. I guess you never know exactly what you're going to get each NFL season, but I expect this division to be dominated by the Colts. The Titans will probably be Indianapolis's toughest intra-divisional threat, but I don't think Tennessee has the ability to truly challenge for the division crown. Meanwhile, the Texans and Jaguars are still reeling from awful seasons. While the future may show promise for this division, 2014 does not. The Colts have a somewhat tough schedule outside of their division, but I don't think that should stop them from racking up twelve wins. I would be very surprised if the Colts did not win at least five games in their division this year.

Titans: 9-7

I actually like the Titans this year. Tennessee put up seven wins last year, largely with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Locker has some good potential, and the tandem of Greene and Sankey in the backfield is solid. Their receiving attack is nothing to scoff at either. If you factor in their likelihood of taking four games from the Texans and Jaguars, nine wins does not seem that unreasonable. The only question that remains is whether or not that will be enough to propel the Titans into the playoffs.

Texans: 6-10

This team ran into the perfect storm last year, witnessing a historically poor season from their usual rock of a quarterback, followed by a total team collapse. I mean, losing fourteen games in a row can do a number on the psyche of a team, but I think Houston will be much better this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer at the quarterback position, but some stability at quarterback is always a good thing, and that is what Fitzpatrick offers. For a team that has a very good defense, any sort of offenseive production should result in at least a little bit of a turnaround this season. Clowney, Watt, Cushing, and Joseph are still all big names on defense. Expect a different Houston team this season.

Jaguars: 4-12

There is not much to say about the Jaguars. They are stuck in a bit of a rut as a franchise, and it seems that they are doing their best to plan for the future with Blake Bortles. The Jacksonville front office was obviously very high on Bortles. Maybe they saw something in the former UCF player that made them believe that he was the answer they were looking for. However, as it pertains to this season, Bortles is not the answer. Currently, we are not expected to see him start this year. For now, I expect to see the Jaguars at the foot of the AFC South. But who knows, maybe the exciting tandem of Bortles and Shorts will be something we will be hearing a lot about in the not-so-distant future.

AFC East

Patriots: 12-4

In a league of so much parity, there are few things so consistent as the Patriots' dominance of the AFC East. Brady may be getting older, but he is still finding ways to stay at the top of his game. The Jets, Bills, and Dolphins may scuffle for that wild card spot, but one thing is for sure, the Patriots rule the AFC East. Now, Brady just needs a reliable defense and a healthy receiving core, and this team has the potential to get back to their glory days of football in New England.

Bills: 8-8

Other than the Patriots at the top, I find this division harder to predict than most. I would have some difficulty explaining to you why I placed the Bills here. Basically, it comes down to the fact that Buffalo won six games last year, and I think they are a little better this year. Buffalo was willing to make the necessary moves during the draft to get Sammy Watkins. While that may not have necessarily been a great decision, it demonstrates the characteristics of a franchise willing to make the risky moves to get better. If Watkins and Manuel mesh, the Buffalo offense could be good. It should be interesting.

Jets: 7-9

The Jets definitely have the potential to put together a winning season (they finished 8-8 last season), but I don't think it will happen this year. Similar to EJ Manuel, it will be interesting to see how Geno Smith performs during his sophomore season at the helm for the Jets. I don't want to say it is directly related, but it seems that the Jets continue to get better as Rex Ryan gets quieter and quieter. The Jets might not make the playoffs, but I think they will at least be in the wild card hunt for most of the season.

Dolphins: 5-11

I have difficulty finding the upside for the Dolphins right now. Tannehill has basically shown that he will never be a top tier quarterback. He has been given plenty of time to prove himself as a starting quarterback, but he has failed to produce big time numbners in the role. It seems as though Miami will be left to struggle with the rest of the mediocre teams around them in NFL purgatory. Unfortunately, the Dolphins appear to be the only team moving backwards in this division, as they are a team that seems to be lacking clear potential.

Now, let's move onto the NFC, starting with the NFC West.

NFC West

Seahawks: 12-4

No surprises here, and no reason to over think this. The Seahawks are the best team in the division, and they are the team to beat in the NFL. So, instead of looking at their obvious strengths, let's look at their weaknesses. First of all, great success often comes with a price, that price being the cost of keeping your top players to stick around. The Seahawks have done a good job of mitigating these costs, but still, with less money to go around this year, the Seahawks have taken a small step backwards. Also, their workhorse, Marshawn Lynch continues to get older and take more hits. Unless you are superhuman, like Adrian Peterson, running backs like Lynch generally have a set expiration date for their NFL career, and Lynch's is getting close. Unfortunately, this is a team that does not have a very strong passing attack to make up for a potential lapse in the running game. The Seahawks should still be considered the favorites to win it all, but they will not be as unstoppable as they were last year.

49ers: 10-6

This season is slowly looking tougher and tougher for San Francisco. A lengthy suspension to Aldon Smith definitely hurts the team. Additionally, the Niners have many of the same exact problems as the Seahawks, having to give players bigger contracts and dealing with an aging running back. However, the advantage that the Niners have over the Seahawks is a superior passing attack. It will be interesting to see how much work Carlos Hyde gets. If I'm calling the shots in San Francisco, I'm probably going to want to use both backs, in order to conserve Gore's legs as much as I can. The NFC West was the top division last year, and I expect them to be the top division again this year. We will have to see if the difficulty of playing in the NFC West ends up preventing one of the NFC West's three playoff caliber teams from making the playoffs.  

Cardinals: 10-6

The Cardinals finished up last season with an impressive win in Seattle, followed by a tough loss to the 49ers. In the super-powered NFC West, Arizona almost found a way to sneak into the playoffs. The Cardinals are just as good, if not better this season. Unfortunately, Arizona has to find a way to win now, as their veteran quarterback, Carson Palmer continues to get closer to the end of his career. Ellington has proven his worth during the off-season, and he is being rewarded with the lead role in the Arizona backfield. The staunch Arizona defense completes an incredible trio of defenses to be feared in this division. I think the Cardinals are good enough to finish ahead of the Niners this season, but I wasn't brave enough to make that prediction.

Rams: 3-13

Shaun Hill is in for a nightmare in the NFC West this season. The injury to Sam Bradford immediately put the Rams in a deep hole. Last year, I could have argued that the Rams were good enough to win a few of the weaker divisions in the NFL, but the NFC West was just too good all around. Even though they finished last in the division at 7-9, they impressed with wins over the Cardinals, Colts, Saints, and Bears. This year, it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Rams are relevant in this division at all. I do not expect St. Louis to win more than one divisional game during the regular season. Maybe the Rams should just pack it in early this season, as the road ahead is very unforgiving.

NFC North

Packers: 11-5

Will anyone be able to unseed the Packers this year? The Lions came close last year, but completely fell apart at the end of the season. The Bears were also close, and came within one play from taking the crown from the Pack. However, as long as Rodgers is healthy, it will be difficult to stop the Green Bay Packers. There are no easy games in the NFC North, but I think the Packers have enough to once again win the division. Now, whether or not they can get past that wild card round of the playoffs is another story. Fans in Green Bay will not be satisfied with just making the playoffs this season, and I don't think the players will either.

Lions: 9-7

Detroit is a team with plenty of potential. They have a young quality quarterback, arguably the most talented player in the NFL, and a defense that can push you around. Detroit's offense is full of weapons at Stafford's disposal. If the Lions are able to maximize the potential of their roster, they should be a solid playoff contender. However, the NFC will have many teams vying for those wild card spots, and I am not sure there is enough space in the post-season for the Lions. Their easiest route into the playoffs might be by way of the NFC North crown.

Bears: 9-7

I have never been a fan of Jay Cutler. When Josh McCown came in and outperformed Cutler last season, I was obviously even less impressed with Cutler. Either way, the Bears have a great offense. Alshon Jeffrey had his coming out party last season, completing a receiving tandem that will give NFL secondaries nightmares. Both Jeffrey and Marshall define the, “I'm always open” receiver. They are jump ball specialists, able to pull down a bad pass when in tight coverage (Brett Favre would have loved these guys). The Bears are definitely a contender to win the NFC North; however, I see the Packers (and maybe even the Lions) as a step ahead of Chicago.

Vikings: 4-12

Minnesota will have a tough time this year. Settling on Matt Cassel at quarterback is an ominous sign of things to come. Adrian Peterson may be one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but the run game is only one aspect of the Vikings' offense, in a league that is moving more and more towards the passing game every season. Every year, passing gets easier in the NFL, with multiple quarterbacks setting new record passing marks all the time. A run game is valuable, but you cannot rely on it in a league that is just so dominated by the pass.

NFC South

Falcons: 10-6

If I make one giant mistake in my predictions, let it be here in the NFC South. The NFC South is consistently the most inconsistent division. More teams have gone from worst to first in this division than any other in the current NFL format. Each team has won the division exactly three times. I love this division. So, that is why the Falcons will win the NFC South. I expect Matt Ryan, along with Julio Jones and Roddy White to be back to their old ways of tearing up defenses through the air. And you have to love Jake Matthews protecting Ryan's blindside now. Last year was a great example of what can happen when things go bad for any team in the NFL. However, I expect the Falcons to bounce back with an NFC South crown.

Panthers: 9-7

The Panthers will fall just short of the playoffs this year. Carolina looked like one of the best teams in the NFL for much of last season, but they did not back it up with a strong off-season The Panthers' defense is still strong, but how are they going to score points? Cam Newton can go ahead and do his best superman impression, but I am not sure the Panthers have the offensive weapons required to make the playoffs.

Saints: 9-7

The Saints continue to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL; however, I predict that they will fall just short of the playoffs this year. The NFC is loaded with talented teams, and I predict that the Saints will be one of the unfortunate talented teams to miss out on the playoffs this year. At the same time, the Saints have the potential to run away with the division. The NFC South is tough to foretell this year (and every year), but I am sticking with my predictions.

Buccaneers: 5-11

The Buccaneers have definitely gotten better since last year, but I don't think that makes them a playoff contender. You never know what's going to happen in the NFC South, but I don't think Josh McCown is the savior that the Bucs are looking for. McCown impressed in Chicago last year; however, he has been a perennial backup his entire career. Elite quarterbacks do not blossom overnight, and with the weapons he had in Chicago, his success was not completely unbelievable. Either way, the Bucs took a step forward this off-season Will it be enough to take them out of last place in a deep NFC South? I don't think so.

NFC East

Cowboys: 9-7

As long as it does not come down to week 17, the Cowboys are my pick to win the division. Romo has had some unlucky moments in his career, but he is definitely good enough to lead this team to the playoffs. And after looking at the rosters in this division, I think the Cowboys have the most talent. Romo, Bryant, and Murray lead a strong offensive unit, and I expect them to lead Dallas to the division crown.

Eagles: 8-8

Give me one more year of good quarterbacking before I get on the Foles bandwagon. Foles had a great season, and with a strong core of receivers (including McCoy out of the backfield), you would expect that he puts together another solid year. However, we are yet to see how the loss of the Eagles' top receiver, Desean Jackson affects the Philadelphia offense. The Eagles will field a tough squad this year, but I am not totally sold on Philadelphia. I think Dallas will finish just ahead of them for the top spot in the NFC East.

Washington: 6-10

Desean Jackson adds a dynamic play-maker to the Washington roster, but that won't matter if RG III does not step up this season. Griffin needs to stay healthy for Washington to succeed. Putting Robert Griffin III on the field at 90% health is not good enough to succeed in the NFL. Washington had a lot of improvements to make over the off-season, and they definitely covered some of them. The potential is there for Washington, but I don't expect them to have enough to seriously compete for a playoff spot in 2014.

Giants: 6-10

Am I being too hard on the Giants? Possibly. But give me a compelling argument why the Giants did not get worse over the off-season. Their receiving core is weaker. Their backfield is weaker. And it feels like a long time ago since the Giants had one of the most feared pass rushes in the NFL. Their defense has been someone stagnant for a few years now, and I don't think weakening Eli Manning's roster is going to help him bounce back from one of the worse statistical years of his career.

Bonus Predictions:

MVP:

Peyton Manning

The Broncos got better this year, and so did Peyton's weapons. Welker may be injured, but the real threats on offense are going to be Thomas, Thomas, and Sanders. Peyton will be just as statistically dominant this year as he was last year. How old is he again?

Super Bowl:

This is a tough one to predict. The Broncos and Seahawks still appear to be the two best teams in the league, but there are lots of possible contenders to make a Super Bowl appearance this year. Who to choose, who to choose...

Broncos defeat the Packers 31-24. In an unbelievable coincidence, the Broncos defeat the Packers by the same exact score as the 1998 Super Bowl, which featured the same two teams.

Super Bowl XXXII was the first Super Bowl I ever remember watching, and I had no idea what was going on. All I remember is that John Elway and Brett Favre were playing. Hopefully, when the Broncos and Packers play in the upcoming Super Bowl XLIX, I will remember it a little better.

Well, there it is. 32 predictions. 32 flawless analyses. Sorry if I ruined the outcome of the season for you. Fortunately, if you are a blind fanatic like me, it won't matter. Even though I already know that the Raiders will finish 5-11, I cannot wait for the season to start. Because, until Sunday, the Raiders will be undefeated! Their potential is limitless! The Super Bowl is so close, I can almost taste it! Nothing can stop the Silver and Black! Go Raiders!