Once again, I will start my Regular Season recap with a quote from my Dad: "The screen play is my favorite play." It is not necessarily relevant to the post, but he makes a great point. The screen play is a very effective play. Anyways, after 17 weeks of screen plays, the regular season has come to a close, and only 12 teams are left in the battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
I always love looking back at my predictions from the beginning of the season. I enjoy my "Wow, nice prediction" moments, just as much as my "What was I thinking" moments. However, I hate my "Why did I let Connor convince me that the Bucs were not the worst team in the league" moments. Excerpt from a profound GChat conversation:
Adam: I mean. I think the Bucs might be the worst team in the league.Connor: Oh. I don't.Adam: What is good about them? What makes them better than 4-12 this year?Connor: Doug Martin. With health.Adam: What about Josh McCown? He is a clown. It rhymes. Must be true.
Josh McCown was indeed a clown this year. I could not have been more accurate. However, for every one of those moments, I find myself looking at my predictions for teams like the Titans, thinking, why did I have any belief that Jake "The Glass Body" Locker could lead Tennessee to the playoffs? Why did I even think he could start all 16 games of an NFL season? However, the unpredictability of the season is what is great about the NFL. One week, Bill Belichick is asked by a (dumb) reporter if Jimmy Garoppolo is being considered for the starting quarterback position in New England, but, by season's end, the Patriots are the top team in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Rams found a way to win against the Seahawks and Broncos in a season where they finished 6-10. Similarly, Kansas City lost to Tennessee and Oakland in a year where they defeated New England and Seattle. Parity. Parity. Parity. The NFL is full of it. One day my predictions will be perfect. For now, here are the results of my flawed 2014 regular season predictions:
Quick Stats:
Average Differential Between Predicted and Actual: 2.0
Correct Predictions: 4
Predictions Within 1 Game: 11
Predictions off by 3 or More Games: 12
Worst Prediction: Titans (Predicted: 9-7, Actual: 2-14)
Playoff Teams: 9/12
Division Winners: 7/8
Most Accurately Predicted Division: AFC West + NFC West (Off by 6 games)
Least Accurately Predicted Division: AFC South (Off by 12 games)
At a glance, my predictions turned out alright. I lowered my Average Differential from last year from 2.2 to 2.0. Solid. I'm quite pleased with predicting 7 of the 8 division winners. Unfortunately, Atlanta blew it for me on the final week of the regular season. Let's take a closer look at how I did in each division.
AFC West
There's nothing impressive about picking the Broncos to win the AFC West. This was not the cleverest prediction I made. In fact, the entire division finished incredibly similar to last year, making the division easy to predict. The one major difference was that the Chiefs and Chargers both missed the playoffs. Anyways, I need to eventually get over my Chiefs bias and accept the fact that Alex Smith is good enough to make Kansas City a playoff contender year in, year out. Phillip Rivers was inconsistent, ultimately leading to San Diego missing the playoffs. After starting the season as an MVP candidate, Rivers could not even lead his team to the playoffs. And finally, Oakland finished 3-13, below my predicted five wins. Fortunately, the future looks brighter than usual for Oakland. They ended the season with three straight home wins. I'm hoping they take Amari Cooper in the draft this year.
AFC North
For the second straight year, the AFC North was the only division in which I predicted the final standings exactly right. Predicting the Steelers as the champions of the North was one of my riskier picks; however, it paid off. Even though the Steelers ended as division champions, the Bengals still had a strong season, finishing with the top Wild Card spot, which I also predicted. However, I did not predict that the Ravens would be joining Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the playoffs as well. The Ravens had a strong season, finishing with 10 wins. They will be hoping that Flacco can show some of his 2013 playoff magic, if they hope to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Finally, the Browns had a much better season than I expected. Mike Pettine (obnoxiously pronounced Pettin) had a great rookie season as a head coach for Cleveland, in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. If Brian Hoyer can continue to develop, this team could be good in the near future.
AFC South
The AFC South predictably belonged to the Indianapolis Colts again. With Andrew Luck at the helm, the Colts can expect to be winning this division for the majority of the next fifteen years. Life is good when you go from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Indianapolis has had that great fortune. Meanwhile, the Texans are trying to bring back the "defense wins Championships" mantra. However, it would be easier if they could just find a franchise quarterback to compliment their prolific defense. It's been a long time since Trent Dilfer won the Super Bowl with the Ravens. These days, you need at least a decent quarterback to make a run in the playoffs. The Jaguars found a way to not finish at the bottom of this division for the second year in a row, which I find quite impressive for the lowly Jacksonville side. They had a "big" win against the Titans to ensure that they would finish in third in the South. Tennessee had no chance to succeed this year. I thought they would take a step forward this year, after finishing with seven wins in 2013. However, Jake Locker is as fragile as they come. Charlie Whitehurst was not good. And Zach Mettenberger was in no way the savior that the Titans were looking for this season.
AFC East
It is usually easy to predict the division winners of the AFC. Denver, Indianapolis, and New England are generally no-brainers. So, if you manage to correctly predict the AFC North, you've got it. Anyways, the Patriots helped me predict all four division winners in the AFC for the second year in a row. New England started off slow this season; however, they head into the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC and the clear favorite to win the AFC Conference Title. Meanwhile, the Bills nearly snagged a playoff spot this season, led by the top defense in the NFL. This team has nearly all the pieces in place to make a playoff run. Unfortunately, like many teams in the league, they are looking for their franchise quarterback still. It does not look like it will be EJ Manuel at the moment. Tannehill had a stellar year for Miami, playing much better than I expected all season. They looked like a playoff caliber squad, until they lost three of their last four games, including a loss to the Jets in Week 17. Even with the win over the dolphins in the final week of the season, the Rex Ryan era is finally over in New York. This team is stuck in a rut at the moment. Geno Smith had sparks of brilliance this season, but he could never get in a consistent rhythm. The Jets defense is still tough, but there offense needs to get a lot better before they can even think about making a serious playoff run.
NFC West
The NFC West is home to four of the top defenses in the NFL. It is also home to four of the worst offenses, which made those defenses look all the more impressive during divisional games. The Seahawks are coming into form just at the right time. It didn't seem like anyone would be able to catch the Cardinals after the first half of the season; however, a critical injury to Carson Palmer changed everything. The Seahawks have taken advantage, and appear to be the favorite to win it all and repeat as Super Bowl champions. Once again, the NFC will go through Seattle. No team is happy about that. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are falling apart. It seems unlikely that the Cardinals will get an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl in Arizona. At this point, I'm sure they are just hoping to get past the first round. The 49ers finally cracked this year. This was a team that was lucky to win eight games. I don't know what happened to San Francisco's offense, but it looked abysmal all season. With Jim Harbaugh gone, the future looks bleak for the Niners. 49er fans are not happy about how this season went. Trust me. I live around a ton of them. Finally, the Rams outdid my expectations this year, even after he loss of Sam Bradford. Shaun Hill and Austin Davis did their best to fill the void, but they were not able to do so successfully. However, the Rams defense made them a tough opponent all season, and the emergence of Tre Mason in the running game is a reason to be optimistic for the future in St. Louis.
NFC North
The Packers still rule the North, but the Lions gave them one helluva fight. Aaron Rodgers was the best and most consistent quarterback in the league all season. The only worry for Green Bay is how poorly they looked seventeen weeks ago against Seattle. If they want to win the NFC Conference Title, they will most likely have to defeat the Seahawks in Seattle. Meanwhile, even though the Lions were unable to win the division, they still came away with a deserved wild card spot. Unfortunately, you never know what you're going to get with Stafford. And to make matters worse, their first playoff game is against a Dallas team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment. The Lions defense has been their rock all season. Will it be enough to score them a playoff win in Dallas? The Vikings had quite a mediocre season, failing to win a game against an above .500 team. The biggest question in Minnesota is, are the Vikings ready to move on past Adrian Peterson? Only time will tell if "All Day" has played his last game for the Vikings. And finally, do you think the Bears are missing Josh McCown yet? Cutler was as unimpressive as they come this season. Does he have a future in Chicago? Cutler is one of many quarterbacks in the NFL making "elite quarterback" money, while not being on that "elite quarterback" level. The offseason should be interesting for Chicago.
At a glance, my predictions turned out alright. I lowered my Average Differential from last year from 2.2 to 2.0. Solid. I'm quite pleased with predicting 7 of the 8 division winners. Unfortunately, Atlanta blew it for me on the final week of the regular season. Let's take a closer look at how I did in each division.
AFC West
There's nothing impressive about picking the Broncos to win the AFC West. This was not the cleverest prediction I made. In fact, the entire division finished incredibly similar to last year, making the division easy to predict. The one major difference was that the Chiefs and Chargers both missed the playoffs. Anyways, I need to eventually get over my Chiefs bias and accept the fact that Alex Smith is good enough to make Kansas City a playoff contender year in, year out. Phillip Rivers was inconsistent, ultimately leading to San Diego missing the playoffs. After starting the season as an MVP candidate, Rivers could not even lead his team to the playoffs. And finally, Oakland finished 3-13, below my predicted five wins. Fortunately, the future looks brighter than usual for Oakland. They ended the season with three straight home wins. I'm hoping they take Amari Cooper in the draft this year.
AFC North
For the second straight year, the AFC North was the only division in which I predicted the final standings exactly right. Predicting the Steelers as the champions of the North was one of my riskier picks; however, it paid off. Even though the Steelers ended as division champions, the Bengals still had a strong season, finishing with the top Wild Card spot, which I also predicted. However, I did not predict that the Ravens would be joining Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the playoffs as well. The Ravens had a strong season, finishing with 10 wins. They will be hoping that Flacco can show some of his 2013 playoff magic, if they hope to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Finally, the Browns had a much better season than I expected. Mike Pettine (obnoxiously pronounced Pettin) had a great rookie season as a head coach for Cleveland, in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. If Brian Hoyer can continue to develop, this team could be good in the near future.
AFC South
The AFC South predictably belonged to the Indianapolis Colts again. With Andrew Luck at the helm, the Colts can expect to be winning this division for the majority of the next fifteen years. Life is good when you go from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Indianapolis has had that great fortune. Meanwhile, the Texans are trying to bring back the "defense wins Championships" mantra. However, it would be easier if they could just find a franchise quarterback to compliment their prolific defense. It's been a long time since Trent Dilfer won the Super Bowl with the Ravens. These days, you need at least a decent quarterback to make a run in the playoffs. The Jaguars found a way to not finish at the bottom of this division for the second year in a row, which I find quite impressive for the lowly Jacksonville side. They had a "big" win against the Titans to ensure that they would finish in third in the South. Tennessee had no chance to succeed this year. I thought they would take a step forward this year, after finishing with seven wins in 2013. However, Jake Locker is as fragile as they come. Charlie Whitehurst was not good. And Zach Mettenberger was in no way the savior that the Titans were looking for this season.
AFC East
It is usually easy to predict the division winners of the AFC. Denver, Indianapolis, and New England are generally no-brainers. So, if you manage to correctly predict the AFC North, you've got it. Anyways, the Patriots helped me predict all four division winners in the AFC for the second year in a row. New England started off slow this season; however, they head into the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC and the clear favorite to win the AFC Conference Title. Meanwhile, the Bills nearly snagged a playoff spot this season, led by the top defense in the NFL. This team has nearly all the pieces in place to make a playoff run. Unfortunately, like many teams in the league, they are looking for their franchise quarterback still. It does not look like it will be EJ Manuel at the moment. Tannehill had a stellar year for Miami, playing much better than I expected all season. They looked like a playoff caliber squad, until they lost three of their last four games, including a loss to the Jets in Week 17. Even with the win over the dolphins in the final week of the season, the Rex Ryan era is finally over in New York. This team is stuck in a rut at the moment. Geno Smith had sparks of brilliance this season, but he could never get in a consistent rhythm. The Jets defense is still tough, but there offense needs to get a lot better before they can even think about making a serious playoff run.
NFC West
The NFC West is home to four of the top defenses in the NFL. It is also home to four of the worst offenses, which made those defenses look all the more impressive during divisional games. The Seahawks are coming into form just at the right time. It didn't seem like anyone would be able to catch the Cardinals after the first half of the season; however, a critical injury to Carson Palmer changed everything. The Seahawks have taken advantage, and appear to be the favorite to win it all and repeat as Super Bowl champions. Once again, the NFC will go through Seattle. No team is happy about that. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are falling apart. It seems unlikely that the Cardinals will get an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl in Arizona. At this point, I'm sure they are just hoping to get past the first round. The 49ers finally cracked this year. This was a team that was lucky to win eight games. I don't know what happened to San Francisco's offense, but it looked abysmal all season. With Jim Harbaugh gone, the future looks bleak for the Niners. 49er fans are not happy about how this season went. Trust me. I live around a ton of them. Finally, the Rams outdid my expectations this year, even after he loss of Sam Bradford. Shaun Hill and Austin Davis did their best to fill the void, but they were not able to do so successfully. However, the Rams defense made them a tough opponent all season, and the emergence of Tre Mason in the running game is a reason to be optimistic for the future in St. Louis.
NFC North
The Packers still rule the North, but the Lions gave them one helluva fight. Aaron Rodgers was the best and most consistent quarterback in the league all season. The only worry for Green Bay is how poorly they looked seventeen weeks ago against Seattle. If they want to win the NFC Conference Title, they will most likely have to defeat the Seahawks in Seattle. Meanwhile, even though the Lions were unable to win the division, they still came away with a deserved wild card spot. Unfortunately, you never know what you're going to get with Stafford. And to make matters worse, their first playoff game is against a Dallas team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment. The Lions defense has been their rock all season. Will it be enough to score them a playoff win in Dallas? The Vikings had quite a mediocre season, failing to win a game against an above .500 team. The biggest question in Minnesota is, are the Vikings ready to move on past Adrian Peterson? Only time will tell if "All Day" has played his last game for the Vikings. And finally, do you think the Bears are missing Josh McCown yet? Cutler was as unimpressive as they come this season. Does he have a future in Chicago? Cutler is one of many quarterbacks in the NFL making "elite quarterback" money, while not being on that "elite quarterback" level. The offseason should be interesting for Chicago.
NFC South
Even though the NFC South was the only division where I failed to predict the division champion, it is still my favorite division. Carolina is the first team in the history of the current NFC South format to win back-to-back division titles. And, the division failed to produce an above .500 team. The NFC South never fails to entertain. Even though Carolina finished the season below .500, they should be a tough opponent in the playoffs. They are currently on a four game winning streak, including a Week 17 dismantling of the Falcons in Atlanta. It is pretty unbelievable that a team with a 3-8-1 record after Week 13 eventually made the playoffs. I mean, Carolina went on a six game losing streak in the middle of the season. The Saints ultimately finished second in the division, even though their season was over after Week 16. The Saints defense was atrocious , and Drew Brees could do nothing about it. The Saints have a lot of work to do in the offseason on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta is a tough team to figure out. It was not long ago that they had one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, led by an All-Pro quarterback in Matt Ryan. Now, the Falcons seem a long way from producing another playoff-caliber squad. First, they must find a coach to replace Mike Smith. And finally, we can officially say that the Bucs are on the clock. That's a nice way of saying that Tampa Bay produced the worst football team in the NFL this year. The Buccaneers own an inexplicable win over Pittsburgh, but other than that, their season was a total bust. Josh McCown could not produce the numbers that he did in Chicago, even with the deadly receiving tandem of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Mike Glennon got a crack at running the Tampa Bay offense again, but he was unsuccessful as well. The Bucs are far from being contenders in this league. For now, they get to look forward to the first pick in the draft. Will it be Mariota?
NFC East
How 'bout them Cowboys? Dallas's trio of Romo, Murray, and Bryant has Cowboy fans remembering the remarkable trio of Aikmen, Smith, and Irvin from the 90's. Demarco Murray had an unbelievable season running the ball. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant seemed perfectly in sync. And the Dallas defense did enough for the Cowboys to win the division. However, this division may have gone another way if the Eagles were not forced to put in Mark Sanchez after Nick Foles broke his collarbone. Chip Kelly proved that his fast-paced offense was still worthy of the NFL. Unfortunately, it wasn't good enough to overcome an injury to his quarterback. With Foles back for next season, I expect the Eagles to return to the post-season. The Giants found their talisman in Odell Beckham Jr., but he wasn't nearly good enough to help the Giants be contenders for a playoff spot. The Giants were simply lousy this year. I have no problem with this. I enjoy watching Eli Manning struggle. And finally, Washington could not figure out their quarterback situation. RGIII is still yet to pan out. Meanwhile, Cousins believes that he should be the starter, and he may have a decent argument. And Colt McCoy looked like he could be the real deal when he led Washington to back-to-back wins over the Titans and Cowboys, after coming in for an injured Cousins. Washington has a lot of work to do. Committing to a quarterback should be their first course of action.
Additional Predictions:
At the beginning of the season, I predicted Peyton Manning to be the league MVP. However, it looks like either Aaron Rodgers or J.J. Watt will be grabbing that honor. Also, my Super Bowl prediction was Denver over Green Bay. Right now, the Broncos and Packers look like the second best teams in their respective conferences. We'll see if they can make a run in the playoffs.
The playoffs are fast approaching (tomorrow), and every team left will still believe that they have a chance to win it all. I will be making my playoff predictions later today, so expect them by tomorrow morning, before the first playoff game starts. I'm looking forward to another great post-season. I can only imagine how fun the post-season would be if the Raiders actually made it into the playoffs one of these years... Go Raiders.
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