Super Bowl LI Prediction

At the beginning of the season, I predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would defeat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl LI. Of course, that prediction came up just short, as both the Steelers and Packers lost in their respective Conference Championship games. It seems like just yesterday that I was making that Super Bowl prediction, along with the rest of my regular season predictions. Now, 5 months later, I get to make my final prediction of the NFL season. The Super Bowl. The two last teams standing will lay it on the line, all in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl LI @ NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

New England Patriots (14-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Sunday, 6:30 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -3.0)

Super Bowl LI will feature arguably the two best quarterbacks from the 2016 regular season. Atlanta’s offense was historically good this year, racking up a total of 540 points over the course of the regular season, 71 more than any other team in the league and 7th most all time. Ryan was the centerpiece of this historically good offense, finishing with an NFL record 9.26 yards per attempt. Of course, with rule changes, NFL passing numbers have been improving across the league for years now, but that stat is still very impressive. Ryan has done it by distributing the ball well to all his receivers and both of his premier tailbacks, Coleman and Freeman, who combined for 85 catches this season. Sanu and Gabriel have also been great compliments to Julio Jones, taking some of the attention away from the standout wide receiver, allowing him to work in single coverage more often.

The Patriot offense will do their best to keep pace with the Falcons. Fortunately for New England, they were also to put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this season, as well. The Patriots combined for 32 passing touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions (Brady: 28 TDs, 2 INTs) this season, which is just insane. Even the best quarterbacks have some bad luck sometimes on tipped balls or incredible defensive plays, but New England’s quarterbacks have been able to almost avoid that entirely. Meanwhile, Belichick’s usual running back by committee approach has once again proven effective. Lewis and White have been great receiving backs, and Blount has been the steady bruising back that keeps defenses honest against the passing game.The Patriot offense is a well oiled machine, and they should be up to the task on Sunday. With two prolific offenses on display, every possession will be valuable, as every offensive series that ends without points will be considered a failure.

While the focus will mostly be on the offenses, the defenses will do their best to show that they are worthy of their Super Bowl trip as well. Statistically, the Patriots have had far and away the better defense of the two teams this season, ranking first in the league in points allowed. However, that defense has not exactly been challenged. The Patriots have faced none of the top 10 quarterbacks (based on QB rating) all season, including the post-season. Roethlisberger was the highest rated quarterback they faced all year, ranking 11th in the league. Still, they faced NFL-caliber teams every week, so their great defensive numbers cannot be totally disregarded. Additionally, their best ability has been defending the run. If they can slow down Freeman and Coleman, and make Atlanta one-dimensional, New England may be able to give Matt Ryan some trouble.

As for the other defensive unit, the Falcon defense ranks near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories. However, I believe this is an underrated unit that should be able to give Brady some trouble. The Falcons are coming off a Conference Championship game where they were able to totally shut down Rodgers and the rest of the Packer offense, especially if you don’t consider the garbage time stats that Green Bay accumulated when they game was already out of reach. The Falcons were able to keep the Packers from scoring over the entire first half. Of course, they were helped by a missed field goal and a timely redzone turnover. Still, this defensive unit has proven that it has the potential to play well. They will need to be at their best if they hope to keep the New England offense in check. With the talent that they have on the offensive side of the ball, holding the Patriots to 24, or maybe even 30 points could be enough to win Atlanta their first ever Super Bowl.

Prediction: We get an unexpected defensive battle in the first quarter, as both teams fail to register a touchdown over the first fifteen minutes. Even when Ryan throws an early interception, the Patriots are only able to cash in with a field goal. However, as the half wears on, we get more of what we expected, as both offenses begin to light it up. Ryan and Brady trade touchdowns, and the run game is quietly forgotten for both teams, as quarterbacks reign supreme. As the first half comes to a close, New England holds the slight edge, 16-13. The Falcons score immediately after halftime, taking their first lead of the game at 20-16. The game remains close, deep into the fourth quarter. With 2:37 remaining in the Super Bowl, the Falcons have the ball, trailing by three points. Ryan leads Atlanta down the field masterfully, setting up first and goal with 42 seconds remaining. Three incompletions lead to a 4th and Goal from the 5 yard line. On 4th down, Ryan is flushed out of the pocket and, in desperation, he throws the ball towards the endzone. Malcolm Butler is in position for the game-sealing interception, but the ball bounces right off his hands and into the waiting arms of Mohamed Sanu for the touchdown. The Patriots are unable to score on the ensuing drive. Falcons win Super Bowl LI, 34-30.

So, there you have it. Atlanta will be your Super Bowl Champions for the first time ever! Awesome. But who cares about that?! What’s important is all those enticing prop bets. Here are all of my “Can’t Lose” wagers that are sure to make you lots of money. Everyone should find their sports bookie right now and bet all of their life’s savings on the following outcomes:

Coin Toss: Heads or Tails (Even Bet)

Heads. This is an easy call. Look at this data:

If you don’t see the obvious trend, then you just aren’t smart enough.

Will Luke Bryan be Wearing a Hat when he Appears on Screen Before Singing the U.S. National Anthem? (Even Bet)

Yes. Never in my life have I seen Luke Bryan without a hat on. Maybe he’s balding and hiding the shame, or maybe I’ve never seen him.

First Offensive Play of the Game (Run -150, Pass +120)

Pass. I like going with the underdog here. These offenses are going to want to get out fast. I expect passes early and often.

Longest Touchdown Yardage in the Game (Over/Under: 52.5)

Under. I expect two bend but don’t break defenses on display. Lots of scoring but no long ones.

Total Turnovers (Over/Under: 1.5)

Over. There will be one interception and one fumble. 1 + 1 = 2. 2 > 1.5. Take that to the bank.

Total Points (Over/Under: 57.5)

Over. 34 + 30 = 64. 64 > 59.0.

Total Number of Penalties in the Game by both teams (Over/Under: 12.5)

Under. Nobody likes penalties in the Super Bowl. Refs will be keeping those yellow rags in their pockets.

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?

Odds:

Clear/Water +300
Lime/Green +300
Yellow +300
Orange +300
Red +500
Blue +750
Purple +1000

Orange. They won’t waste a good flavor on the coach. I expect an Orange shower.

Super Bowl MVP

Odds:

Tom Brady: 3/2
Matt Ryan: 7/4
Julio Jones: 11/2
Field: 10/1

Matt Ryan. Getting the field at 10/1 is tempting, but this will be Ryan all the way. Regular Season MVP. Super Bowl Champion. Super Bowl MVP. That’s a pretty solid season for Matty Ice.

Enjoy Super Bowl LI. I’ll be back next week with the season’s final installation of Brosh Knows Football. It’s been a great year of football. Hopefully we get one more great game.