Saturday, September 7, 2013

My 2013 NFL Predictions

I love the NFL.  Unfortunately, I was cursed to dread it as well.  When I made the decision to become a Raiders fan about 14 years ago, I didn't know what I was in for.  All I saw at the time was the pride of the Silver and Black, the unwavering devotion of the fans, and a team that was intimidating all over.  I miss the good old days of Rich Gannon, Tim Brown, and Rod Woodson...
I still remember crying after the "tuck rule" game in New England and also after the Raiders lost the Super Bowl in 2003 to the Bucs.  And I will always remember Rich Gannon's last play, when he broke his neck on a QB sneak against Tampa Bay, officially marking the beginning of an era of atrocious football in Oakland.  Anyways, I still love the NFL, and even though I predict the Raiders as the favorite to win the first overall pick of the 2014 draft, I can't wait for the season to start, when Andrew Luck will slowly and meticulously expose all of the Raiders' many glaring holes on defense in Week 1.  And as I think about the weeks ahead, I am beginning to fear the Raiders' trip to Denver this year.  That could get ugly fast.
I know this post comes after the opening game, but these have been my predictions for some time now.  I have made my predictions with the help of my great football intellect and incredible intestinal fortitude.  Anyways, here they are, in writing, my predictions for the 2013-14 season.
The team names in bold are my predicted playoff teams. Let's start with the AFC...


AFC West


Broncos: 13-3

The Broncos have the luxury of playing in what I believe to be the second worst conference in the NFL. They will easily get 5 wins in their divisional games, and I would be pretty surprised if they didn't win all 6.  I don't think they are the best team in the NFL, but I do see them having the best record.  Peyton Manning has all kinds of fun toys to play with in Welker, Decker, and Thomas.  And that backfield is not too bad either with 3 strong runners in Hillman, Moreno, and Ball.

Chargers: 7-9
The Chargers define mediocrity.  Everyone in this division gets two free wins against the Raiders this year, so all their records will be a bit inflated.  Rivers is OK, and has limited talent around him.  This is a team that is kind of stuck in "not quite good enough to make the playoffs" limbo right now.  They need a complete overhaul before they get better.  I wonder how long it will take management to realize this.

Chiefs: 6-10
Obviously, I'm not impressed with the Chiefs like everyone else is.  Sorry, but Andy Reid is an OK coach; I don't think his arrival in KC will add much to a pretty bad team.  And honestly, I think Matt Cassel may be a better quarterback than Alex Smith.  Alex Smith was mediocre on an incredibly talented 49ers team.  Cassel was great on the Patriots, and he survived while in KC, which is saying something.  Smith is a great game manager, and he won't make a lot of mistakes, but is he going to win many games?  I don't think so.

Raiders: 3-13
The Raiders have slashed away all big contracts of the Al Davis era in an effort to free up cap space so that they can make better cap decisions in the future.  By next season, they will not owe any money to players that are not actually on the team roster anymore, which will be an incredible opportunity for McKenzie and Allen to prove their worth.  Unfortunately, this season will be a disaster.  The fact that Pryor is the Week 1 starter is very disconcerting.  Flynn is really that bad?  Anyways, I see them beating the Jags in Week 2, maybe stealing one from KC, and probably beating the Steelers because the Steelers always find a way to lose to the Raiders for some reason.  It's going to be a tough season to watch, but I love my RaiderNation.


AFC North


Bengals: 10-6

I love the Bengals this year.  They have a deep and talented roster that only got better over the off-season.  Dalton is getting more and more confident in that offense, and he is proving that people with red hair can throw a football.  He has lots of weapons at his disposal, and I expect him to take advantage.  I think they win 10 games in what is probably one of the top 2 divisions in the NFL this season.

Steelers: 9-7
The Steelers are consistently a playoff contender, and I expect them to be in the mix again this year.  When you get to have the same QB lead your team out onto the field year after year, a team meshes much better.  I expect the Steelers to squeak into the playoffs, taking the final Wild Card spot.

Ravens: 8-8
Now, I don't think the Ravens are bad; they are just in a really tough division, and they have gotten weaker then the two teams above them.  The Ravens barely made it into the playoffs last year, so a step down is a step out of the playoff picture in my opinion.  They are overpaying Flacco, which has forced them to make roster cuts.  The departures of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed do not help, even though they were both aging players.  And I think the Steelers and Bengals are simply better than them.  8 wins seems reasonable for Baltimore.

Browns: 6-10
The Browns have significantly improved over the off-season.  The only thing that is holding them back is an incredibly tough division.  They are going to give the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens a lot of trouble this season.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win more than 6; however, in such a tough division, I'm not sure what kind of chance they'll have to be a playoff contender.


AFC South


Colts: 11-5

The AFC South is a toss-up for me.  I just don't know who will take it.  I'm going with the Colts.  I like their off-season additions, and I think 11 wins is not an unrealistic possibility for them.  I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how Luck performs in his sophomore season.

Texans: 11-5
I picked the Colts to win the division, but I see the Texans as the team that will take the top wild card spot.  They are a solid team, and have proven to be a consistent playoff contender for a few years now.  11 wins should be attainable for them.

Titans: 6-10
I don't know much about the Titans, but all the fans that are waiting for CJ2K to have a big year, should stop holding their breath.  This team is just not good enough to support a good running back, and honestly, all Johnson has is break-away speed.  He is garbage when it comes to power running.  He'll have a few breakout runs this year, but I wouldn't bank on him having consistently good numbers.

Jaguars: 4-12
4 wins may be generous for the Jags.  They really don't have much going for them.  And, is Blaine Gabbert really any good?  The Jags are a team that I am really counting on to lose to the Raiders in Week 2.  That says a lot about what I think of the Jags.  That match-up in Oakland should be just awful, probably the worst game of the season.


AFC East


Patriots: 13-3

I know the Patriots are in trouble with both of their best tight ends out to start the season.  I know the loss of Welker hurts.  However, I believe (and it pains me to say this) that Belichick may be the best coach of all time.  He cycles players in and out of his team all the time.  You know why?  Because players succeed beyond their abilities in his offense.  His system is incredibly good.  So, those players will ask for more money; then, Belichick shows them the door and brings in the next guy.  The Patriots system is unbelievably good.  I expect them to not miss a beat this season.  Also, playing in the weakest division, in my opinion, in the NFL will definitely help them win games.  Similar to the Broncos, I would be surprised if they didn't win all 6 of their divisional games.

Dolphins: 7-9
The Dolphins continue to not do much to improve their team.  Thanks to the two teams below them being just awful, they will cruise to second place in the AFC East.  Assuming they take all 4 games from the Bills and Jets, the Dolphins have a decent chance of winning 8 or 9 games this season.

Bills: 4-12
The Bills are a mess.  EJ Manuel has earned the starting job pretty quickly in Buffalo, which is not a good sign, considering he barely beat out Kevin Kolb (along with the help of a possibly career-ending concussion) for the starting spot.  Kolb is pretty bad, and he is a QB who has gotten his opportunities to prove himself.  The fact that Manuel was not much better than him in training camp and the preseason is not a great sign, at least for this season.  I don't see good things in the near future for Buffalo; however, maybe EJ Manuel will prove himself in the future.

Jets: 4-12
4 wins may be generous for the Jets, but they are playing in a pretty weak division.  So, maybe 4 wins is a possibility.  Instead of saying any more about the Jets, I will just link you to what is possibly my favorite NFL play ever: http://thebiglead.com/2013/07/24/the-mark-sanchez-butt-fumble-is-still-espns-worst-of-the-worst-play-as-we-approach-training-camp/

Now, let's take a look at the NFC.  The NFC is definitely the top conference this year.  Here's what I think of all 16 teams...


NFC West


49ers: 12-4

I believe the Niners are the best team in the NFL this year.  Kaepernick has some experience under his belt, and that defense is still incredibly intimidating.  They only got better with the acquisition of Boldin.  And, I know I'm biased about this, but I think Asomugha is going to have a great year for the Niners.  He adds another very solid CB to a very talented secondary.  The only reason I limit the Niners to 12 wins is because they play in a very talented division.

Seahawks: 10-6
Sorry, but I'm just not as convinced as everyone else that the Seahawks are that good.  They are a very good team, and I would be very surprised if they didn't make the playoffs, but I think the Niners are much more talented.  I don't think Russell Wilson will be as effective this season because I believe that more teams are going to find ways to stop him; however, the Seahawks are still a team that no one will want to play in Seattle.  Hopefully, for the sake of all the other NFC playoff teams, they don't get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Rams: 6-10
Similar to the Browns, I think the Rams are a good team.  I just think that facing two of the best teams in the NFL four times this season will take its toll on St. Louis.  The Rams are getting better, but this is not a good time to be only "good" in the NFC West.  That shipped sailed back in 2010, when the Seahawks made the playoffs at 7-9.

Cardinals: 5-11
Similar to the Rams, I like the Cardinals, and I think they have gotten a lot better.  Fitz has a QB that he can trust to just chuck the ball up to him.  Palmer might not be an elite QB, but he is better than people are giving him credit for.  However, I foresee another tough season for the Cardinals.


NFC North


Packers: 11-5

I don't think anyone is arguing that the Packers will win the North.  Rodgers and company are just a very solid squad that are too tough to beat.  The teams below them are getting better, but I don't think they are good enough to usurp the usual NFC North Champions.

Vikings: 8-8
Last season, AP proved that the running back position is not totally useless in this pass-happy league.  Unfortunately, the players around him will have to get better for this team to succeed.  I can't imagine AP being as dominant this year as he was last year, but then again, I couldn't imagine him having the year he had last year after ACL surgery.  This will be an interesting team to watch.  I'm just not sure they are good enough to be true contenders for the playoffs this season.

Lions: 8-8
The Lions always seem like they are looking to get better in the off-season.  It would seem that they are totally committed to only passing the ball this season.  The addition of Reggie Bush confirms that.  While I predict that neither the Vikings nor the Lions will make the playoffs, look for them to battle for a playoff spot until the last couple weeks of the season.  These teams are both pretty good.

Bears: 7-9
The Bears fall into that frustratingly mediocre category, with the Chargers.  They are good, but not good enough to be a playoff contender in my eyes.  A total overhaul for the franchise might be necessary before this team makes it to the playoffs again.  Jay Cutler has never impressed me, and Brandon Marshall is really the only great thing on their offense.  Let's see if they can amass 7 wins in a tough NFC North.


NFC South


Falcons: 11-5

I know a lot of people like the Saints in the NFC South, but I still think the Falcons are the team to beat.  Steven Jackson is a great addition and I think this team has only gotten better overall.  I'm very interested to see how Jackson will do on a very strong team.  I think Atlanta will take the South, but not by much.

Saints: 11-5
Now that Sean Payton is back and Bountygate is behind them, I think New Orleans will return to strength as a top NFC South contender.  The team is strong and with Drew Brees at the helm, one of the best decision-makers in football, I think the Saints will have a chance to win the division.

Panthers: 7-9
I, like many others, believe that the Panthers are actually a very strong side.  Cam Newton is a formidable quarterback who has another year under his belt.  Another year of experience and maturity will certainly help Newton.  Carolina is slowly but surely getting better; however, I don't think they will be a serious contender for the NFC South.

Buccaneers: 5-11
I'm not sure what to think of the Bucs.  Doug Martin has proven to be a great NFL running back, but it seems as though you never know what you're going to get with Josh Freeman.  The Bucs have potential, but I don't see them making much noise this season.


NFC East


Redskins: 9-7

I am one of those people who have that blind confidence in RGIII's repaired ACL.  I love Alfred Morris, and Washington is filled with young talent.  It will be a tough road, as it almost always is for any team in the NFC East, but I'm going to predict that the Redskins repeat as NFC East Champions.

Cowboys: 9-7
I'm going to go with the usual result of the Cowboys just missing the playoffs.  They seem a lock to win 8 or 9 games every year in a second place effort in the East.  I'm going to play it safe and say that's what happens again.  Nonetheless, the Cowboys should be a fun team to watch this year, with Tony Romo's window of opportunity for a championship closing and with Jason Garret's job possibly on the line.

Giants: 9-7
I have predicted that the Giants will finish 3rd in the East, at 9-7 as well.  I have decided this because every team in the NFC East always finishes 9-7.  So, this is what I predict will happen.  I don't think the Giants have done enough to get better in the off-season, so I predict that they will fall just short of the post-season again.

Eagles: 6-10
And last but not least, I predict Philadelphia at 6 wins.  I really have no idea what to expect from the Eagles this year.  Their upside with the new Chip Kelly offense is obvious; however, will it really be enough to turn this franchise back into a contender?  I'm not sure.  Anyways, I wasn't sure how the Eagles would do, so I predicted their record last, so that the total number of wins and losses in my predicted NFL were equal.  6 wins seems reasonable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix with the Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants this season.

MVP:
Peyton Manning
He was my MVP prediction before Thursday.  Obviously, he is still my pick.

Playoffs:
I won’t go on and on about the playoffs, but I'll predict the Super Bowl.
49ers defeat Bengals 21-17 in a blizzard.
The Niners and Bengals are two great teams.  It would make for a great game.

Well, there you have it, my 2013-14 NFL Season Predictions.  I can't wait for the season to start in full force on Sunday.
Go Raiders.

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