Friday, January 10, 2014

Divisional Playoff Round 2014: My Predictions


Wild Card Weekend will be tough to top, but I think we have some great games headed our way this weekend.  We have a road favorite, a divisional rivalry, and lots of playoff experience in all four games.  Many people see the Broncos as unbeatable at home this weekend, but the Chargers have already left Sports Authority Field with a win once this year.  The Patriots look like a clear cut favorite, but the Colts have been one of the best teams against top competition all season long.  The Seahawks rocked the Saints at Century Link Field in the regular season, but does that actually benefit the Saints?  And finally, the 49ers head into Carolina as slight favorites… and I think I agree with that!  Here are my predictions for this weekend’s slate of games. 


New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Saturday, 4:35 ET (Current Line, Seahawks -8)

At first glance, it seems pretty obvious that the Seahawks should win this game.  Let’s lay out the facts.  The Seahawks looked incredible at Century Link Field all season, especially against good competition.  The Seahawks average margin of victory at home this year was just over 15 points.  They defeated the Saints in Week 13 by 27 points, 34-7.  They have possibly the most talented roster in the league, with a pass defense that has silenced opposing quarterbacks (including Drew Brees) all season long.  However, the Seahawks showed their weaknesses to the rest of the league when they lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 16, 17-10.  The Seahawks’ offense was exposed against the Cardinals.  Palmer gave Wilson and the Seattle offense plenty of chances, by turning the ball over numerous times; however, the Seahawks were unable to capitalize on these opportunities.  So, if New Orleans wants to defeat Seattle, they are going to have to do it on defense.  The Saints will have trouble scoring; just about every team that comes into Seattle does. However, I believe that having played at Century Link once this season definitely benefits the Saints.  They know exactly what they are walking into, and Brees knows exactly how many audible signals he will be able to communicate to his teammates at the line (none).   If the Saints’ defense steps up, this game could be a lot closer than people expect.  The spread says -8, but my mind is telling me that anything could happen!  What to do, what to do?!
Prediction:  The Saints are trailing 24-17, with less than 2 minutes left in the game.  Brees and the Saints are driving, until an errant throw ends up in the hands of Earl Thomas.  The Seahawks hold on, 24-17. 


Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)
Saturday, 8:15 ET (Current Line, Patriots -7)

Our second Saturday game showcases another heavy home favorite in the New England Patriots.  The Patriots, even with a depleted roster, managed 12 wins over the regular season.  New England looked like a top team in the AFC all season, even though they had to squeak out some wins in a few close games.  The Patriots are a team that simply knows how to win.  The Colts bring an intimidating opponent, though.  No team has beaten more top competition than Indianapolis this season.  They have showed an impressive resilience all year, but I have a feeling a meeting with the AFC’s number 2 seed in Foxborough may ultimately prove to be too much.  I know I’ll be rooting for the Colts, but that most likely will not help. 
Prediction: The Patriots jump out to a 24-0 lead in the first half.  Andrew Luck and the Colts fight back, but the Patriots know better than to let a large lead evaporate.  Patriots cruise by the Colts, 34-20


San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Sunday, 1:05 ET (Current Line, 49ers -1)

This should be a fun game.  I think a lot of people still don’t know what to think of the Panthers.  Since losing three of their first four games, the Panthers quietly turned their season around, and became one of the toughest teams in the NFL.  The Panthers have shown what they can do against top competition, beating the Niners at Candlestick and winning against the Patriots and Saints at home.  The Panthers are a well rounded team, with a confident Cam Newton at the helm.  When the Panthers are winning, Cam looks good.  And when Cam looks good… well, you know.  Anyways, I, like many other people, see a great team in the Niners.  I expect another grudge match, just like the 10-9 game we saw in Week 10.  This one should come down to the last possession. 
Prediction: The Niners are in another defensive battle this week.  They jump out to the early 6-0 lead, as the Panthers shake off the rust of the bye week.  The Panthers come back to take the lead.  The Niners, down 13-9 in the 4th quarter, score a touchdown on a 37 yard Kaepernick run, with 2:37 left on the clock.  San Francisco’s defense forces a turnover on downs, and the Niners win, 16-13. 


San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 ET (Current Line, Broncos -9.5)

The Broncos may be favored by 9.5 points, but this one is a toss-up for me.  Like I said in an earlier post, rivalry matchups in the playoffs are almost impossible to call.  Are the Broncos the far superior team?  Of course.  I don’t think there are even many Charger fans who would argue with that.  Do the Chargers have a great chance of defeating the Broncos for the second time in Denver this Sunday?  I have to say yes to that, too.  So, like any good analyst, I have stated that either the Broncos will win because they are better, or the Chargers will win for reasons that I cannot explain.  This is an intelligent prediction.  I cannot be wrong.  I really do not want to see the Chargers win, but my gut is telling me that they will.  Do I possess the required cojones to make the upset call?  Charger fans are on the edge of their seat, waiting for my prediction…
Prediction: The Chargers dominate the first half, and lead 24-10 going into halftime.  However, Peyton Manning comes out and does Peyton Manning things in the second half.  Manning leads the Broncos on a great comeback, but ultimately comes up short when Rivers scores a TD on a QB sneak to seal it.  Chargers win 34-31. 


Seahawks, Patriots, 49ers, Chargers.  Those are my predictions; however, not the results that I will be hoping for.  I will be rooting for the Saints, Colts, 49ers, and Broncos this weekend.  So, hopefully my predictions are wrong, especially my last pick.  I can’t believe I picked the Chargers.  I really hope I am wrong about that.  Maybe there was a little something inside of me that knew if I picked against the Chargers again, they would win again.  Hopefully I have cursed them this time.  I hate seeing those stupid “#BoltUp” statuses on my Facebook newsfeed.  Anyways, the two games I am really looking forward to watching are in the NFC.  I think the Saints are going to give the Seahawks a great battle in Seattle, expect a close one there.  And the 49ers and Panthers should produce a great defensive game, something that is hard to come by in today’s offense-happy league.  Enjoy this weekend of football!  I know I will.  I’ll be back to pick up the pieces of my awful predictions on Tuesday.  

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