As my dad once said, "The
'experts' aren't better at predicting sports outcomes; they are just the best
at explaining why their predictions were wrong." I'm not sure that
was the exact quote, but you get the idea. Basically, the NFL is a league
filled with parity, and you never really know what the outcome of a 16-game
season will be. It's why we keep coming back. It's why Raider,
Lions, and Browns fans haven't totally lost hope yet. It's why defending Super
Bowl Champions are required to earn a playoff spot. It's what makes
trying to predict the results of a season, game, or even a single play so
exciting. I couldn't have predicted that the Texans would go 2-14, or
that for some reason, a team with Steven Jackson is incapable of making the
playoffs (except for during Jackson's rookie season). The Falcons and
Texans looked like strong teams to start the season, but Matt Schaub finally
revealed his weaknesses and Matt Ryan was unable to prevent his team from
totally falling apart. The Chiefs stepped up against a weak schedule, and
Chip Kelly proved that he was ready for the NFL. Anyways, it's time to
look back on another great NFL regular season. Let's review my
predictions, and then find out where I was right and where I was wrong. The
entire post for my regular season predictions can be found here: http://yummers21.blogspot.com/2013/09/my-2013-nfl-predictions.html
Prediction
Actual
AFC West AFC
West
Broncos:
13-3
Broncos: 13-3
Chargers:
7-9 Chiefs:
11-5
Chiefs: 6-10 Chargers:
9-7
Raiders
3-13
Raiders: 4-12
AFC North AFC
North
Bengals: 10-6
Bengals: 11-5
Steelers:
9-7 Steelers: 8-8
Ravens: 8-8
Ravens: 8-8
Browns:
6-10
Browns: 4-12
AFC East AFC
East
Patriots: 13-3 Patriots: 12-4
Dolphins:
7-9
Jets: 8-8
Jets: 4-12
Dolphins: 8-8
Bills:
4-12
Bills: 6-10
AFC South AFC
South
Colts:
11-5
Colts: 11-5
Texans:
11-5 Titans: 7-9
Titans:
6-10
Jaguars: 4-12
Jaguars:
4-12
Texans: 2-14
NFC West NFC
West
49ers: 12-4
Seahawks: 13-3
Seahawks: 10-6
49ers: 12-4
Rams:
6-10
Cardinals:
10-6
Cardinals:
5-11
Rams: 7-9
NFC North NFC
North
Packers:
11-5
Packers: 8-7-1
Vikings:
8-8
Bears: 8-8
Lions:
8-8
Lions: 7-9
Bears:
7-9
Vikings: 5-10-1
NFC South NFC
South
Falcons: 11-5
Panthers: 12-4
Saints: 11-5
Saints: 11-5
Panthers:
7-9
Falcons: 4-12
Buccaneers:
5-11
Buccaneers: 4-12
NFC East NFC
East
Redskins:
9-7
Eagles: 10-6
Cowboys:
9-7
Cowboys: 8-8
Giants:
9-7
Giants: 7-9
Eagles:
6-10 Redskins:
3-13
Quick Stats:
Average Differential
Between Predicted and Actual: 2.2
Correct Predictions: 6
Predictions Within 1 Game:
17
Predictions off by 3 or
More Games: 9
Worst Prediction: Texans
(Predicted: 11-5, Actual: 2-14)
Playoff Teams: 8/12
Division Winners: 5/8 (4/4
in AFC)
Most Accurately Predicted
Division: AFC North (Off by 4 games)
Least Accurately Predicted
Division: NFC South + NFC East (Off by 13 games)
At a glance, these stats seem quite mediocre. Let’s take a look at what transpired this NFL
season.
AFC West
I was pretty accurate with the Broncos and Raiders here. The Broncos took advantage of being the clear
top dog in their division, en route to amassing 13 wins. Meanwhile, the Raiders showed their expected
weaknesses, as a team in total rebuilding mode.
The Chargers were just able to prove me wrong and make the playoffs,
thanks to Ryan Succop’s missed field goal in Week 17. And I whiffed on the Chiefs. I think I can partly chalk this down to the
unexpectedly easy schedule that the AFC West got to play. The AFC West was blessed with matchups
against the AFC South and NFC East this year.
The Chiefs season reminded me of their 2010 campaign. In 2010, the Chiefs went 10-6, far outplaying
their ability. And there is a striking
similarity. In both 2010 and 2013, the
Chiefs recorded exactly one win against a team with an above .500 record. This season, the Chiefs beat the Eagles, and
that was in Week 3, before the Eagles started playing well and back when Vick was still
starting. All five of the Chiefs’ losses
came against above .500 teams (Broncos x2, Chargers x2, Colts). That does not bode well for them if they are
trying to make a run in the playoffs.
AFC North
I was quite pleased with my prediction of the AFC North. It is also the only division that I was able
to correctly predict the final standings.
The Bengals proved to be the class of the North, and the Steelers were
right in the playoff mix until the final week (even after starting the season
so poorly). The Ravens proved that they
took a step back from last season, by missing the playoffs. And the Browns were unfortunate not to win
more than 4 games. They were a tough
side at times, but significant injuries at quarterback proved too much to
handle. Unfortunately, the poor season
led to the firing of Head Coach Rod Chudzinski, which I believe was an awful
move. You have to give a head coach more
than one season to succeed. There is
potential for the Browns, but it looks like they will have to start over next
season, as they bring in yet another new head coach.
AFC South
The AFC South was another division where I did quite well, I got the
division winner, and had a good prediction of what kind of teams the Titans and
Jaguars were. Luck solidified his spot
as a top NFL quarterback by taking his team back to the playoffs again, and
made me look smart by grabbing 11 wins on the Colts’ way to the AFC South
crown. Unfortunately, the Texans made me
look like a fool, and proved that any team can totally implode in any given NFL
season. Schaub’s weaknesses were
exploited this year, as teams realized that intercepting his passes and returning
them for TDs were the most effective means of playing defense against the
Houston quarterback. Meanwhile, the
Titans showed promise, but also displayed why they were not good enough to be a
playoff contender quite yet. Maybe next
year. And the Jags have a lot of work to
do over the off-season. They will be one
of many teams who will be trying to figure out their quarterback situation for
the 2014 season.
AFC East
The Patriots are still top dog in the East. No surprises there. The Belichick-Brady machine is too good. The Dolphins were their biggest threat in the
division for most of the season, but were never true contenders in the East. The Jets must have heard that I did not think
much of them this season because they played well for a side that seemed in
total disarray heading into last off-season.
Geno Smith proved to be a formidable starting quarterback, and the Jets
defense were a force to be reckoned with, especially against the run. The Bills brought up the back of the
division, but were still a stronger side than I expected. They looked like a solid side for a lot of
the season, but the Bills were unable to overcome the uncertainties and
injuries at quarterback that plagued their team for most of the season.
NFC West
The Niners proved me right, by finishing as one of the top teams in the
NFL. Unfortunately, for them (and my
prediction) the Seahawks were a little better.
The Seahawks showed just how good they were this season, outdoing even
some of their bolder expectations. The
Cardinals also impressed this season. I
knew that Cardinals had made significant improvements, but I was unable to
predict that they would be this good. In the toughest division in the NFL, the
Cardinals were unfortunate not to make the playoffs. The future is bright for Arizona. However, with Carson Palmer aging, that
window of opportunity might be shrinking fast.
The Rams looked spectacular in spurts this season. They were dominant in games against the
Colts, Bears, and Saints. Unfortunately,
they were unable to consistently win. I
believe that the Rams may have been good enough to win some of the weaker
divisions in the NFL. That’s how good
the NFC West was this year. It seems
like a long time ago when the NFC West was the weakest division in the NFL, when
7-9 earned the Seahawks a playoff spot in 2010.
NFC North
The Pack was once again the best team in the NFC North. Even with Rodgers out for almost half of the
season, the Packers were still able to win the division. They didn’t finish 11-5 as I predicted, but I
believe that they would have been right around there, had Rodgers not gone
down. Meanwhile, the Vikings proved that
this is a passing league, unable to sustain their playoff caliber from a year
ago. Peterson was good, but Minnesota
still needs a quarterback. The Lions
looked like a team destined to win the North, until a monumental collapse led
to a nightmarish ending to their season.
Stafford appears to be the right guy for the job, but the Lions have
some work to do if they want to make the playoffs next season. The Bears missed a great opportunity to take
the division crown this year. A miracle
pass on 4th down, late in the 4th quarter against the Packers
doomed them in the final week of the season.
Throughout the season, Jay Cutler did absolutely nothing to prove to me
that he is a great quarterback. When
Josh McCown, a perennial NFL backup, comes in and does your job for you, that
is never a good sign. The Bears have two
of the best weapons at wide receiver in the NFL. Any quarterback would be lucky to play in
that system.
NFC South
If you switch my projection for the Panthers and the Falcons, I don’t
come out so bad in the South. I was
right when I said that the Panthers were a strong side; however, I was not
nearly bold enough in my prediction.
Newton had a great season, and the Panthers team as a whole looked
unstoppable at times. I was spot-on with
the Saints. Brees had another great
season to add to his resume, and the Saints look like a team that will be a
tough playoff matchup for any opponent in the NFL.
The Bucs showed some promise at times this season, but they are still a
little ways off from being a top NFL side.
Like many teams, their success next season will be hanging on whether or
not they can figure out their quarterback situation. The Falcons were one of my lousiest
predictions. Looking back on it, I feel
silly for predicting them as division champions. In the current NFL format, the NFC South
champion has never repeated as champion the next season, and often the division
is won by a team that had a bad prior season.
With this division crown, in the current format, each member of the NFC
South has won the division exactly three times.
A perfect example of NFL parity.
A perfect microcosm of the league as a whole. Damn, I should have seen that coming…
NFC East
The Redskins proved to be one of my worst predictions. RGIII looked uncomfortable for most of the
season, and the entire team looked dysfunctional at times. Perhaps another off-season for RGIII to gain
some confidence on his repaired knee will do him some good. I did well with my Cowboys and Giants
predictions though. In classic Cowboys fashion,
Dallas failed to make the playoffs by way of a tough divisional loss on the
final day of the regular season. Garret
kept his job, and Romo is still a good NFL starter. It will be another long off-season for the
Cowboys. Will next year finally be their
year? The Giants were actually a tough
team to beat towards the end of the season.
Unfortunately, an awful 0-6 start to the season and an awful season for
one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league, were far too much to
overcome for a Giants team that has historically been an overachieving
franchise. And last but not least, Chip
Kelly proved his worth in the NFL. When
Foles took over and the Eagles’ offense started to click, the Eagles began to
look like a division champion. I went
into the season not knowing much of what to expect of the Eagles, and I still
don’t totally have them figured out. It
will be fun to watch them in the playoffs.
Additional Predictions:
At the beginning of the season, I predicted Peyton Manning to be the
NFL MVP. This seems a lock. Good for me.
I also predicted the 49ers over the Bengals in the Super Bowl. This looks like a decent possibility, but for
now, I am just happy to see that both of these teams made the playoffs.
The NFL postseason is just a couple days away now. I am excited to see just how far all of these
playoff teams will go. I will be making
some playoff predictions later today or tomorrow. Be sure to look for them! Maybe I will have more luck with my post-season
than my regular season predictions. Enjoy this weekend of football. I know I will. Hopefully next year, a certain Silver and
Black team will be attending the post-season festivities as well…
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