Wild Card Weekend Recap 2014

What a great weekend of games.  Three games were decided by three points or fewer, two of which were decided on the final play of the game.  Some things went as expected, but others did not.  And other than a handful of Charger fans, I don’t think I was alone in my surprise of the most unexpected result of the weekend.  This weekend I went 3/4 on my predictions, with a record of 2-1-1 ATS (against the spread).  Here’s how the games shook out. 

Indianapolis Colts defeat Kansas City Chiefs, 45-44

I guess I got this one right; however, I will be the first to admit that this game did not go as I expected at all.  The Chiefs had an unexpectedly incredible game on the offensive side of the ball.  Alex Smith may have played the single greatest game of his life, in an unfortunate losing effort.  When a quarterback that you don’t usually rely on throws for 4 TDs and 0 interceptions, you usually expect to win.  Anyways, the Chiefs played with an offensive prowess that I did not see coming at all.  Smith was far from a game manager in the first half.  He was making plays with his feet, his vision, and his arm.  The Chiefs offense looked unstoppable for just over thirty minutes of the game.  However, the one thing I have been preaching about this year is the fact that the Kansas City defense is very overrated, and it was their poor defensive display that ultimately doomed them on Saturday.  They had great numbers against awful offenses all year, but their defense was abysmal when faced with decent competition during the regular season.  I will point out that the Chiefs were a bit unfortunate on Saturday, losing many key players to injuries; however, these injuries are something that teams have to learn to deal with, and I do not think it was the main reason for Kansas City’s demise.  Ultimately, relinquishing a 28 point lead is incredibly devastating, and this will be a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that just lost its eighth straight playoff game, dating back to 1993.  The Colts showed an incredible resilience against an overachieving Chiefs team.  Andrew Luck bailed me out of what initially appeared to be a bad prediction, and in doing so, added his most impressive win to his already long résumé of great NFL comebacks. 

New Orleans Saints defeat Philadelphia Eagles, 26-24

The Saints ushered me to a 2/2 start on Saturday.  This game wasn’t quite as high-scoring as I expected it to be, but both offenses played well.  New Orleans dominated a large portion of the game, and when they went up 20-7, I was feeling pretty comfortable with my prediction.  However, Philadelphia was not done yet, and Foles and the Eagles made an impressive comeback, displaying why they had become one of the hottest teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs.  I had a feeling this game would be close, and my decision to pick the Saints to win ultimately came down to which team I thought would be able to put together that key drive in the 4^th quarter.  Foles was arguably a better quarterback this season, but Brees has the experience that is required for those pressure-filled moments that come in the dying stages of a playpff game.  Brees constructed a brilliant drive that led to Shayne Graham’s 32 yard, game-winning field goal.  Granted Brees only threw one pass on the final drive of the game, he was still key in successfully managing the game by monitoring the clock, making the right audibles, and leading the Saints on their final march down the field.  There will be no easy matchups for any NFC playoff team this post-season, and the Saints, the sixth seed in the NFC, demonstrated why. 

San Diego Chargers defeat Cincinnati Bengals, 27-10

It must be frustrating to be a fan of the Cincinnati Bengals.  The team has been so bad for so long, and now they finally have a great deal of talent on their team, only to continue to underachieve.  Now, give credit to the Chargers.  They came into Cincinnati, and proved that they can play against any team.  Rivers looked good, the defense was phenomenal, and the team stepped up when they had to.  Still, you have to ask, what’s wrong with the Bengals?  They have a great defense and a ton of talent on offense.  The Bengals have one of the best running back tandems in the league, in Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard.  They also have a great receiving core, consisting of Green, Sanu, Jones, and Gresham.  So, unfortunately for a certain red-headed quarterback, all signs point to Dalton.  Like I said all season, this team was consistently winning in spite of Dalton, and this game will do nothing to silence me and the other critics of the Cincinnati quarterback.  He has a ton of talent at his disposal, but he just does not seem good enough to take advantage of it.  The Bengals looked phenomenal at times during the regular season, but every once in awhile they would go on the road, and barely even show up for a game.  The Bengals were consistently forced to lean on their defense throughout the regular season, especially on the road.  The Bengals had some clear weaknesses heading into the playoffs; I just did not expect them to exit the post-season at home against the Chargers. 

As I had pointed out during my prediction for this game, the one advantage the Chargers had in this game was at quarterback, and it sure showed.  Rivers, while playing against a far superior defense, played far better than Dalton.  Dalton had plenty of opportunities to win this game, or at least make it close, but he produced far too many costly turnovers, all of which could have been easily avoided.  However, not all the blame should be placed solely on Dalton’s shoulders.  The Bengals offense, as a whole, simply could not produce against a relatively mediocre San Diego defense.  Ultimately, the Bengals defense played just about as well as you would have expected (ignoring the garbage-time touchdown at the end of the game), especially considering the fact that they were consistently put in tough spots after turnovers.  The Chargers have an interesting matchup ahead of them.  Don’t expect an easy game for the Broncos.  Rivalry games are hard enough to predict as it is, but in the playoffs, you never know what will happen. 

San Francisco 49ers defeat Green Bay Packers, 23-20

I guess I whiffed on this prediction, too.  Dawson’s game-winner was 33 yards, not 41 yards (that’s a 24% error!), and I missed the score pretty badly (23-20, not 20-17).  I guess I just don’t know what I’m talking about.  Anyways, in my opinion, this game should not have been this close.  The Niners absolutely dominated the Packers for the entire first quarter, but only came away with a 6-0 lead.  I don’t care how well you’re playing, if you give Aaron Rodgers the ball within striking distance of the lead, he will more often than not take advantage.  And that is just what he did.  When the Packers took the lead in the second quarter, 7-6, you knew that this was going to be a close game.  Rodgers showed that he still had the ability to play against top competition, and he made the Niners defense work for every punt that they forced.  Lacy was also a key player for the Packers, as he displayed his talent, an optimistic sign for the Packers’ future running game.  Unfortunately for Rodgers, he was playing against a superior team.  The Niners have arguably the most talented roster in the league (I am basically only arguing with everyone in Seattle).  Kaepernick played great, and was able to construct a drive at the end of the game that nearly mirrored Drew Brees’s game-winning drive the day before, taking over 4 minutes off the clock, en route to setting up a game-winning field goal. 

One aspect of the game will continue to give Packer players and fans nightmares, just as it has in the past.  The Packers have no answer for Kaepernick’s running ability.  He torched them on the ground for nearly 100 yards, coming up with big plays in key situations.  Many people will point to the Packers’ injury-plagued linebacker core, and I tend to agree with this.  Clay Matthews did not suit up for the game, and when Mike Neal went down, you had a feeling the Packers might be in trouble.  Late in the second quarter, Kaeprnick ran for 42 yards.  In this play, #59, Brad Jones was responsible for containing Kaepernick.  He was not able to, and the San Francisco quarterback ran for a huge gain.  Similarly, on a key 3^rd & 8, with 1:13 left in the game, and with the Niners still out of field goal range, Kaepernick came up with a huge run to move the chains.  If you watch the play, you’ll notice that #55, Andy Mulumba was spying the quarterback, but he simply was not able to contain Kaepernick on the play.  Ultimately, it ended up being a great game.  And, if Micah Hyde would have been able to hold onto a terrible Kaepernick throw late in the 4^th quarter, I and every other analyst would have spent more time talking about how Rodgers and Lacy were able to lead their team to an impressive victory, against a great 49ers team. 

Wild Card Weekend is in the books.  No more bye weeks.  Next weekend, we will get to see the best that the NFL has to offer in the Divisional Playoff Round.  Wild Card Weekend produced three great games for us.  Hopefully we get four more great games this coming weekend.  Stay tuned for my predictions for next week’s games.  I will most likely be posting them on Thursday.