2015 NFL Regular Season Recap

This is always a fun time of the year for me, as I get to look back at the predictions I made 17 weeks ago. In retrospect, this is never a good idea for me, or for my credibility. There are a lot of embarrassingly bad predictions that I made, sprinkled with a few good ones. However, when it comes down to it, that’s the fun of it all. If the season was as predictable as I claimed it to be 17 weeks ago, then all the fun would be taken out of it. Still, my confidence in my picks never wanes. During the regular season, I will find that I unconsciously delude myself into believing that every team is playing just as well as I had predicted. I’ll think, “Wow, my predictions are all going so well! I really nailed it this year!” And after about 10 weeks of this blind delusion, I will go back and actually check what types of predictions I made, in order to confirm my unrealistic beliefs. That’s when it hits me. Suddenly, I realize that I have been creating new predictions in my head, as the season progressed. I look at my picks in dismay… “Didn’t I pick the Bengals to win the North?” “Didn’t I pick the Dolphins to finish last in the East?” “I didn’t pick Washington to be the worst team in the league, did I?” “I had confidence in the Browns? Why?!” Anyways, it turns out that I had made a lot of bad predictions. However, my dismay quickly turned to glee, as I realized that this will just give me more to write about come playoff time! Hooray! I get to explain to everyone why the Panthers surpassed the win total that I projected for them after only seven games. I get to let you know that nobody could have predicted that every team in the NFC East would implode, except for Washington. And, I get to frivolously defend my belief that the Jets actually suck, even though they came within 1 fourth quarter collapse of making the playoffs! Wow, this is going to be a fun post. I have a lot of explaining to do. Anyways, take a look for yourself. I take pride in both my good picks and my embarrassingly terrible picks.

Prediction	Actual
AFC West	AFC West
Broncos: 11-5	Broncos: 12-4
Chiefs: 9-7	Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 7-9	Raiders: 7-9
Raiders: 6-10	Chargers: 4-12
AFC North	AFC North
Steelers: 11-5	Bengals: 12-4
Bengals: 9-7	Steelers: 10-6
Browns: 8-8	Ravens: 5-11
Ravens: 7-9	Browns: 3-13
AFC South	AFC South
Colts: 12-4	Texans: 9-7
Texans: 10-6	Colts: 8-8
Titans: 5-11	Jaguars: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13	Titans: 3-13
AFC East	AFC East
Patriots: 12-4	Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 10-6	Jets: 10-6
Dolphins: 8-8	Bills: 8-8
Jets: 4-12	Dolphins: 6-10
NFC West	NFC West
Seahawks: 12-4	Cardinals: 13-3
Cardinals: 11-5	Seahawks: 10-6
Rams: 7-9	Rams: 7-9
49ers: 4-12	49ers: 5-11
NFC North	NFC North
Packers: 12-4	Vikings: 11-5
Vikings: 8-8	Packers: 10-6
Lions: 8-8	Lions: 7-9
Bears: 6-10	Bears: 6-10
NFC South	NFC South
Saints: 9-7	Panthers: 15-1
Falcons: 8-8	Falcons: 8-8
Panthers: 6-10	Saints: 7-9
Buccaneers: 3-13	Buccaneers: 6-10
NFC East	NFC East
Eagles: 11-5	Washington: 9-7
Cowboys: 10-6	Eagles: 7-9
Giants: 6-10	Giants: 6-10
Washington: 3-13	Cowboys: 4-12

Quick Stats:

Correct Predictions: 5

Predictions Within 1 Game: 11

Predictions Off by 3 or More Games: 11

Worst Prediction: Panthers (Prediction: 6-10, Actual: 15-1)

Playoff Teams: 7/12

Division Winners: 2/8

Most Accurately Predicted Division: NFC West (Off by 5 games)

Least Accurately Predicted Division: NFC South + NFC East (Off by 14 games)

So, the quick stats aren’t exactly looking great for me. Missing the Panthers prediction by 9 games certainly didn’t help my average. And picking Washington to finish last in the division is pretty embarrassing in retrospect, but I guess the total implosion of Dallas would have been hard to predict. Anyways, let’s break down each division, one at a time, and analyze what transpired during this 2015 NFL regular season.

AFC West

As is usually the case, I underestimated the Chiefs. And, as is also usually the case, I am still not convinced by the Chiefs. During Kansas City’s 10 game winning streak, the only two wins that look impressive are their wins against the Steelers and Broncos. However, upon closer inspection, you would notice that their win against the Steelers came against a Pittsburgh team with Landry Jones at quarterback, and the win against Denver came during the game that Peyton was pulled due to injury. The only other win that the Chiefs have against a team with a winning record is the Houston Texans, back in Week 1, who they will coincidentally be playing during Wild Card Weekend. As for the rest of the division, Denver’s season has gone somewhat as expected. Confidence could only be so high for a team with question marks surrounding their aging legendary quarterback. However, it was the defense that made Denver so great this season, on their way to the number 1 seed in the AFC. The Raiders made great strides this season, and I would be wary of them challenging for the division title in the near future. With the core of the team set in Carr, Cooper, Crabtree, Mack, Murray, and Del Rio, the future looks bright for the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Chargers showed just how far they had fallen this season, finishing at an embarrassing 4-12. Rivers showed sparks throughout the season that he could still play as a top caliber quarterback, but the roster was just too weak to support a playoff contender. San Diego has a lot of work to do if they want to return to playoff form anytime soon.

AFC North

The Bengals and Steelers continued to be the dominant forces in the AFC North this season, both locking up playoff spots. They will meet in Cincinnati this weekend to determine who deserves to move onto the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Bengals have been great this season, with one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. For me, I still have doubts at quarterback though, especially now with AJ McCarron being the possible starter during the playoffs. The Steelers look like one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Injuries to Ben Roethlisbeger certainly hurt them during the regular season. However, Roethlisberger appears to be in top form heading into the playoffs. This team looks dangerous. In the bottom half of the division, the Ravens had an unfortunate season. 9 of the Ravens’ 11 losses were decided by a single score (of course, all 5 of their wins were decided by a single score as well). Couple that with the fact that they didn’t have their franchise quarterback for nearly half the season, and it is easy to see that the Ravens are not far from being competitive in the AFC North again. I expect them to be right back into playoff contention next season. And finally, the Browns. I’m not sure why I set such lofty expectations for Cleveland this season. The Browns could not escape quarterback problems this season, which gave them no chance to succeed. Cleveland seems very far from being a playoff team. Maybe they will find some answers in the draft and free agency during the off-season.

AFC South

What happened to the Colts? Even if Andrew Luck hadn’t gotten injured for a majority of the season, I’m not sure they would have won the division. The Texans were mediocre, and more or less took care of business. However, you have to be skeptical about a team that got blown out 3 times this season (Falcons: 21-48, Dolphins: 26-44, and Patriots: 6-27). Houston will host a playoff game, but their odds of succeeding in the playoffs seem low, especially when their first matchup will be against the hottest team in football, the Kansas City Chiefs. As for the Colts, I guess I should have been more skeptical about how successful they would be this season. The Colts O-Line was an obvious mess at the start of the season. And, with desperation signings of aging Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, there was always concern that this Colts team would not be able to defend their AFC South title. On the bottom half of the AFC South, the Jaguars and Titans did pretty much what was expected of them. The Jaguars actually showed that they could be a good team this season, led by the constantly-improving Blake Bortles. The Jaguars are a young improving squad. Maybe they can contend for the AFC South title sooner than expected.  Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Mariota showed signs of promise this season, but the Titans must improve as a whole before Mariota can succeed in this league.

AFC East

No surprises in New England this season, as the Patriots defended their AFC East title again. There are a couple of concerns though, as the Patriots have shown their offense’s vulnerability. Their lack of receiving weapons have hurt the team, as the Patriots finished the regular season, losing four of their final seven games, while Edelman was out. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East has been improving, as the Jets were the first team out of the playoffs this year. Maybe the pre-season injury to Geno Smith was a blessing in disguise, as Fitzpatrick showed that he could be a competent NFL starting quarterback again. The Jets have plenty of talent on their roster. Maybe a little consistency at the quarterback position is all that is needed to help propel this team forward. The Bills had an up and down season, finishing at a mediocre 8-8. Unfortunately for me, the Bills were my “sleeper” Super Bowl pick. That obviously did not pan out. However, this will be a team to watch out for. Tyrod Taylor is only getting better, and there is plenty of talent around him on offense for this team to succeed. To go along with the offense, the Bills have a top defensive unit. Watch out for Buffalo in the future. The Dolphins showed signs of life in Week 17 against a New England team that still had plenty to play for. However, for the most part, this was a very disappointing season for Miami. Tannehill is still a good quarterback, but Miami has some work to do if they want to keep pace with the rest of this improving division.

NFC West

The NFC West finished pretty close to how I expected it would. The only surprise would be just how good the Cardinals continued to be. Last season, the Cardinals were the best team in the NFL before Palmer got hurt. This season, the Cardinals were the second best team in the NFL, as Palmer was able to stay healthy all season. So, maybe it should have been expected just how good the Cardinals would be. Either way, both the Seahawks and Cardinals had very successful seasons, with Wilson taking a huge step forward in his development as a great young quarterback. The Seahawks have continued to show just how talented their roster is, as Carroll continues to generate solid production out of his team. Meanwhile, the Rams had a stereotypical season, failing to contend for a playoff spot, even after notching some very impressive victories. The Rams swept the Seahawks this season and managed to win in Arizona in Week 4. However, the Rams also had inexplicable losses to team like the Bears, Ravens, and 49ers. The 49ers somehow managed to win five games this season. With an incredibly depleted roster, I was surprised that they were even able to win five. However, it is still nothing to be proud of for the 49ers. It appears as though Kaepernick’s tenure in San Francisco is over. Blaine Gabbert has taken over as the starter; however, is he the answer that the 49ers are looking for? At the moment, no quarterback could succeed with such a lack of talent on the roster. So, maybe it is not fair to judge Gabbert right now based on his successes, or lack thereof, as the 49ers starting quarterback.

NFC North

The Packers have been dethroned. After four straight seasons as NFC North champions, the Packers have finally failed to win the division. The Vikings are kings of the North. For the second time in his career after missing an entire season, Adrian Peterson has returned to the NFL with incredible success. In a pass-heavy league, Adrian Peterson has continued to be a relevant force. The NFL running back is becoming less and less valuable in this league. Every season, starting running backs get hurt. And so often, the backup running back comes in and succeeds as the running game does not miss a beat. That has not been the case in Minnesota for many years, as Adrian Peterson is still arguably the best and most irreplaceable running back in the NFL. Besides Peterson, Bridgewater and the defense have been great this season, en route to Minnesota amassing 11 wins, which included the all-important win in Lambeau on the final game of the regular season. Meanwhile, Green Bay will be left to wonder what went wrong this season. Green Bay started the season strong, winning five straight, before losing four of five. Rodgers and the Packers were very inconsistent all season, and they head into the post-season coming off of two critical regular season losses to current playoff teams. The Lions and Bears failed to make improvements this year, which I predicted from the Bears but not the Lions. Detroit’s once potent passing game failed to impress, and the team sputtered out, en route to a mediocre season. Meanwhile, in Chicago, the star power seems to be available with Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Jay Cutler; however, the roster as a whole is weak. Chicago seems far from being a playoff contender, especially with so much talent above them in the NFC North.

NFC South

Every season I fail to accurately predict the NFC South, and this year was no exception. Carolina made me look like a fool. Not only did they prove that they were the best team in the division, but they also showed that they could stack up with anyone in the NFL, finishing the season with the best record in the league at 15-1. Every team has uncertainties heading into the playoffs, except for the Carolina Panthers. The Panther’s only loss came by way of a tough divisional game against the Falcons. Carolina did not have the strongest schedule and some of their wins against weaker competition were unimpressive; however, they took care of business from week to week, consistently coming up with victories. Finishing in second in the division, the Falcons failed to make the playoffs after starting the season 6-1. Similarly to the Panthers, the Falcons took advantage of a weak schedule, which had them matched up with teams from the lowly NFC East and AFC South. While the Falcons were able to take advantage of this during the early part of the season, six straight losses from Week 8 to Week 14 ultimately doomed their season. This season leaves fans in Atlanta to wonder if Matt Ryan and the Falcons will ever return to their once dominant form. The Saints were a misery to watch on defense once again this season. Drew Brees did his best to lead New Orleans to wins, but this team is just not good enough to compete with the best at the moment. Unfortunately for the veteran quarterback, time is running out on his impressive career, and I’m not sure this Saints team will see the playoffs again while Brees is under center. Finally, Jameis Winston and the Bucs improved throughout the season. Tampa Bay was not an easy out for any team this season. Winston still has plenty of improving to do, but the Bucs are slowly getting closer to relevance around a young, talented squad.

NFC East

Finally, let’s look at the NFC East, which was a complete mess this season. None of these teams really deserve a playoff spot, but one had to get it, as Washington ultimately proved to be the best team in the division. I admittedly did not have a lot of faith in Kirk Cousins at the start of the season, but I am a believer now. If he can continue to improve, this may not be just a fluke season for Washington. The Eagles had a chance to win the division, but a Week 16 loss to Washington ultimately sealed the fates of both Philadelphia and Chip Kelly. After three years of the Chip Kelly experiment, management has had enough. I thought Chip brought some good ideas into the NFL. However, his ideas proved to be ineffective and somewhat unimaginative. Bringing in Bradford always seemed like an odd choice; however, maybe he was the lesser of two evils, after seeing what Foles was not able to accomplish in St. Louis. The chaos at running back and the constant feud between Kelly and the locker room certainly did not help build solid team chemistry. From what’s been said around the league, it sounds like many of the players in the Eagle’s locker room will be happy to see Kelly go. The Giants were back to playing as their unimpressive selves this season. It just seems like New York is never able to put all the pieces together to succeed. Even when this team wins Super Bowls, you are still left to question whether they were actually any good. Eli is adequate. Beckham Jr. is incredible. And I don’t really know the rest of the players on the team. With Coughlin heading out, maybe it is time for the Giants to rebuild, as Eli starts to creep past his prime. Finally, the Cowboys failed to muster any sort of success this season. Of course, playing without Romo definitely hurt the team, but Weeden and Cassel were not strangers to the game of football. Even a mediocre team should be able to give a decent backup quarterback the chance to succeed. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the frustration was only increased by the fact that they were still technically in the playoff hunt until the last few games of the season. However, the inadequacies of the roster ultimately caught up with them. The Cowboys did prove one thing this year, though. They still have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL. If an aging Darren McFadden can succeed AND not get hurt over an entire NFL season, then anyone can succeed in the Dallas backfield. Trust me, I watched McFadden for many years when he played for the Raiders. He was never able to play a full season in the NFL without getting hurt, and he is way past his prime. In spite of all of that, Dallas was still able to make him look like an all-pro running back.

The playoffs are almost here! I will be sending out my Wild Card Weekend predictions sometime this week. For now, I will continue to look back on a fun regular season. There were a lot of interesting storylines this season, many of which will continue to play out into the playoffs. However, I am mostly distracted by the upcoming owners’ meetings, which are coming up during mid-January. These meeting will most likely decide whether or not any NFL teams will be relocating to Los Angeles next season. I really hope the Raiders don’t leave Oakland, especially just as they were starting to get good.