The top four teams have all survived, as all four home teams were victorious on their way to the conference championship round. Another great week puts me at 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS. Not too shabby. Of course, all the favorites have won every single game, so predicting which team will win each game has not been too tough. However, I like to point to my excellent record ATS which validates just how incredibly smart I am.
New England Patriots defeat Kansas City Chiefs, 27-20.
As I predicted, the Patriots escaped with a relatively comfortable win. I said that Kansas City would lead going into halftime, which was not too accurate. New England was in solid control of this game throughout, even if the final score indicates that a mere touchdown separated the teams. Brady looked happy to have Edelman back, as Edelman was able to rack up 10 catches for 100 yards. Meanwhile, Gronkowski terrorized the Kansas City secondary, on his way to two touchdowns. This game presented the usual problems that the Chiefs have struggled with this season. The offense was simply not able to move the ball efficiently down the field. The Chiefs like to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes. Unfortunately for Kansas City, New England didn’t turn the ball over once. In fact, it was the Chiefs who had the critical fumble in the third quarter that led to the Patriots taking their largest lead of the game, 21-6, after Gronkowski’s second touchdown of the game.
At this point, Kansas City seemed well out of the game. However, they were able to stick around until late in the fourth quarter, when they cut the lead to 27-20. Alex Smith led the Chiefs on this critical scoring drive, late in the fourth quarter. However, the ultimate flaw of this drive was how much time was wasted to get the score. The drive took 5:16, leaving only 1:13 left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs had done a nice job of conserving all three of their timeouts, but with so little time left, getting another score still seemed unlikely. Ultimately, the Patriots were able to seal the deal after a Brady pass on 2nd down took two lucky deflections off of Hali and Gronkowsi, into the waiting arms of Julian Edelman. This ball could have easily been intercepted, which would have resulted in an incredibly exciting finish. The ball was not intercepted though, and the resulting reception gave the Patriots the first down that they needed to win the game.
Arizona Cardinals defeat Green Bay Packers in OT, 26-20.
This was the best game of the playoffs so far. It might not have been the prettiest football, but it was definitely the most exciting. Neither offense played as well as I predicted, as both quarterbacks were held in check for most of the game. Palmer had never won a playoff game before, and it seemed like that stat was in the back of his mind for the entire second half. Palmer threw two critical second half interceptions, and there very easily could have been two more, as his accuracy was shaky down in the red zone. To go along with all that, Arizona’s 4th quarter go-ahead touchdown came on a lucky deflection, which took a fortuitous bounce into the waiting arms of Michael Floyd. It is hard to place the blame solely on Palmer for his shaky play, as the Green Bay rush was getting into Arizona’s backfield all day. On the other side of the ball, Rodgers had a difficult day, largely caused by the injury to his number one receiver, Randall Cobb in the first quarter. With Davante Adams already ruled out, Rodgers had to work with the lesser known James Jones and Jeff Janis. Finally, the lack of receiving talent was starting to catch up to Rodgers, as his four top receivers from the beginning of the year were now injured (Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomery). With this lackluster receiving group, Rodgers was only able to amass 160 yards before the final drive of regulation.
On that final drive, Rodgers was able to complete his second miraculous hail mary of the season. How could this happen again? Were the Cardinals not properly prepared for a play that they had already seen the Packers execute successfully, earlier this year? When Green Bay won on a hail mary against Detroit back in Week 13, the Lions chose to only rush three defenders. On this occasion, Arians brought the house on a blitz. Conventional wisdom says that when defending a hail mary, you should use the Detroit strategy (of course the Lions made other mistakes with their defense on that day that I will not get into now) and only rush 3 or 4, while dropping everyone else back into coverage. However, Bruce Arians does not employ conventional wisdom.
The ideology behind bringing the blitz is that you don’t give the receivers enough time to get down the field and you don’t give the quarterback a chance to set his feet. However, when you’re playing a quarterback with as strong of an arm as Rodgers, he doesn’t need to set his feet to heave the ball 50-60 yards through the air. Otherwise, the play call seemed to work, as Janis was not close to the end zone when Rodgers released the ball. However, there was enough air under the ball that Janis had enough time to get under it. And, even though there were two defenders waiting in the end zone, Janis was able to win the jump ball. Was the play call wrong? Maybe rushing seven defenders was a bit excessive; however, it did seem to disrupt the play. I like the Arizona play call, even if it didn’t pan out for the Cardinals. Unfortunately, there isn’t really enough data on hail maries to give decisive proof about which method is more effective. Additionally, employing a blitz on a hail mary is something you almost never see. Either way, it was all for naught, as the Cardinals were victorious after 3 overtime plays. On the first play of overtime, Palmer brilliantly eluded pressure and hooked up with Fitzgerald on a 75 yard catch and run. Two plays later, the Cardinals won on a 5 yard shovel pass to Fitzgerald, which ended the game and sent the Cardinals to the NFC Conference Championship Game.
Carolina Panthers defeat Seattle Seahawks, 31-24.
Obviously a tale of two halves, this game should not have ended this close. Carolina came storming out of the gates, as Jonathan Stewart gashed the defense on the ground, and Cam Newton picked them apart through the air. At the end of the half, the score was 31-0, and the game was essentially over. I was beginning to feel pretty silly for predicting that Seattle would ever be leading in this game. I doubled down on Marshawn Lynch having a big game, after I made a similar prediction in the Wild Card Round (Lynch didn’t play in that game). Again, I was made to look like a fool, as Lynch rushed for only 20 yards on 6 carries. Whether that was a product of trailing the whole game or Lynch still being injured is hard to say. Either way, it is clear that the Panthers were ready for Beast Mode, as they shut him down on the ground. To go along with that, the Panthers defensive line was giving Russell Wilson fits all day, forcing him into uncharacteristic mistakes. Wilson tried as hard as he could to escape the pressure, but all it did was lead to bigger sacks and untimely interceptions.
I’m sure many people turned the game off at the end of the half, but we should all know better than to count out the Seahawks. Down by 17 with less than seven minutes left in the game, there was still no reason to believe that Seattle could win the game. A miracle play on 3rd and goal - the kind that we have grown accustomed to with Wilson - kept Seattle’s slim hopes alive, late in the fourth quarter. On Seattle’s next possession, Wilson was able to lead the offense on one more scoring drive, which cut the lead to seven points. Ultimately, the Seahawks could not recover the onside kick that they needed to have a chance to send the game into overtime, as Charlotte was treated to a playoff victory for the second year in a row. Cam Newton heads to his first conference championship game, and he will have the support of his home crowd while he’s there. The Panthers look unbeatable right now. Arizona better prepare well for Carolina.
Denver Broncos defeat Pittsburgh Steelers, 23-16.
Someone had to win this game. In a war of attrition, the Broncos were able to triumph in the only way they know how. The defense stepped up and the offense did just enough, as Peyton Manning continued his final desperate attempt to get to one more Super Bowl ring. Relative to my prediction, I guess I slightly underestimated how effective the Pittsburgh offense would be in this game but not by much, as they were only able to muster one touchdown over 60 minutes of football. Brown’s absence was felt, but Roethlisberger was still able to throw for a respectable 339 yards against arguably the best defense in the game. Unfortunately for the Steelers, as they were looking to put the game away, newly promoted starting running back, Toussaint fumbled the ball away, which led to Denver’s game-clinching touchdown. If there are any positives to take away from the game for the Broncos, Peyton seemed to have a confident grip of the offense; however, his immobility and inconsistency passing the ball must have the fans in Denver concerned. Peyton is going to need all the help he can get from his receivers and running backs… and offensive linemen… and defense… if the Broncos hope to succeed next week against the Patriots.
Meanwhile, the Steelers will be left to wonder how far they could have gone had they stayed relatively injury-free this season. As I pointed out earlier, when healthy, the Steelers had one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Without having to worry about the speed of Antonio Brown, the Broncos defense was able to clamp down on the other two deep threats of Pittsburgh, Bryant and Wheaton. Still, Roethlisberger showed that he could play well, even with his number one receiver sidelined for the game. Pittsburgh will surely feel that they could have very easily won this game, as they were in control late, even while not playing their best football. Again, the untimely fumble really swayed the momentum of the game. However, Toussaint should not shoulder all the blame, as the Pittsburgh defense was not able to step up on the following Denver possession. Manning orchestrated a critical drive when the Broncos needed it the most, and they are off to the AFC Championship Game, setting up another duel with the New England Patriots.
The top four seeds have advanced. It seems that the best teams reside in the NFC. For now, all we can do is wait. In 3 weeks, the Super Bowl will ultimately decide which team is the champion of the NFL. We have four worthy contenders. Next week will narrow the field down to our final two.
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