The good times continue to roll for me. After a perfect weekend of predictions, I have improved to 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS. These unbelievably good numbers have made me realize just how much I have learned over the past year, and I am truly humbled by it. Well, humbled is probably not the right word, since this has not humbled me at all. At this same time one year ago, I was a misguided child, making predictions without the appropriate amount of brain function required to make intelligent decisions. I am now one year older, one year smarter, and one year greater than I was one year ago. One year ago, I was 6-4 and 2-8 ATS. In one year’s time I have completely turned this thing around, and I am back to my brilliant ways. Clearly, one year has added an invaluable amount of experience in terms of my predictive abilities. Now that my reader’s are aware of my new found intelligence and experience, you would all be foolish if any of you were to ever read anything about football that was written by someone other than me. I am a genius. Please appreciate it while you can. Genius like mine is rare.
Denver Broncos defeat New England Patriots, 20-18
Only a legendary performance from the Denver defense was going to give the Broncos a chance to win this game, and that is just what they got (along with a little luck, in the form of the best kicker in the league missing an extra point). One quarterback threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The other quarterback threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Unbelievably, the latter performance belonged to Peyton Manning. While all the headlines read something along the lines of, “Manning vs. Brady XVII,” the true matchup that everyone wanted to watch was the Denver defense vs. Brady and the New England offense. This matchup was quite entertaining.
Brady was harassed all day, as Denver gave the template for how to beat Brady. No quarterback is as good as Brady when he is comfortable in the pocket. The only way to beat Brady is to make him uncomfortable. It certainly helps when you can generate pressure when only rushing four men, which is exactly what Denver did. Von Miller’s performance was legendary, racking up 2.5 sacks and an interception. Beyond the numbers, Von Miller was a matchup nightmare for the New England O-Line all day, disrupting the pocket and opening up the line for other D-Line players. The Patriots had numerous offensive opportunities in the fourth quarter, but the Denver defense stood firm, doing just enough to hold onto the win.
On the opposite side of the ball, Manning was tasked with doing “just enough” to win, which is exactly what he did. Manning was a solid game manager, other than his one strange fumble when one of his passes was ruled to have gone backwards. Manning had control of the offense and was able to cash in on a couple of solid drives. He let the ground game do the work, while throwing a few decent passes, which were just enough to keep the New England defense honest. This is the worst season of Peyton Manning’s career, and here he is, marching (limping) to the Super Bowl. Peyton is unbelievably one victory away from his second title. If Peyton hopes to have any chance at his second Lombardi Trophy, the defense will have to carry him (literally?) to victory.
Carolina Panthers defeat Arizona Cardinals, 49-15
One of the best games of the playoffs was followed by one of the worst. It would be easy to blame Palmer’s playoff inexperience for this disastrous game, but the truth is that Arizona was just dominated in every facet of the game by Carolina. Palmer was playing poorly, but much of his bad play was a result of a team that was trailing by many points, desperate to move the ball down the field. So, Palmer had to force the ball into areas that he normally would not.
The most fascinating part of this game was how Carolina played after being up up by 20+ points. Unlike last week, when the Panthers entered halftime with a 31-0 lead, they did not let up after taking a large lead this week against Arizona. Not only did they not let up, they seemed to slam down on the accelerator, only to be satisfied by a complete annihilation of the supposed second best team in the NFL. When the Cardinals cut the lead to 19, it seemed like there might be a glimmer of hope for the players in red, especially when they got the ball back. However, the Panthers immediately responded with an interception, followed by an impressive touchdown drive, as the demolition continued.
Carolina never relaxed in the second half, making sure the job was done late into the fourth quarter. They did not want even close to a repeat of the previous week, where they saw a 31 point lead whittled down to 7 in the second half. Sunday was a statement game for Carolina, and the statement was clear: “We are the best team in the league, and we are not going to let up until we have the Lombardi Trophy.” Meanwhile, their opponent in Super Bowl 50 seemed to have a different statement by the end of their Conference Championship game. The Broncos' statement would probably read more like, “We really hope Peyton wins one more Super Bowl. Please be nice and let him win one more.”
A lot can change in two weeks. Sure, Peyton is not as good as he once was, but maybe two weeks of preparation (and rest) are what he needs to prepare for the Panthers. Once again, the story will be about whether or not the Denver Defense can carry this team to one more win, and allow Peyton to ride off into the sunset as a champion. In two weeks, we will have the answer.
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