Wednesday, January 16, 2019

2019 Divisional Round Recap


The top 4 seeds are through to the Conference Championship Round! Good for them! Unfortunately, that is not what I predicted would happen. It looks like my incredible predictive playoff powers were short-lived, as I missed most of my picks in the Divisional Round. I correctly predicted that two games would be close and two would be blowouts. However, I incorrectly predicted that the close games would be in the AFC and the blowouts would be in the NFC, as I got that part exactly backwards. Woops! Anyways, I went 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS, bringing my playoff totals to 5-3 straight up and 4-3-1 ATS. The good news is that I am slightly better than .500 ATS. The bad news is that mediocrity will not be tolerated at Brosh Knows Football, Inc. My editor has already informed me that if I don’t improve my predictions during Conference Championship Weekend, I could be let go before the Super Bowl… uh oh! I better turn this around quick!


Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) defeat Indianapolis Colts (10-6), 31-13
While I recognized that Indianapolis might have trouble containing the potent Kansas City offense, I did not consider the fact that the Colts offense would be rendered totally useless in this Divisional Round clash. Indianapolis offense looked uncomfortable and ineffective from the beginning. The line was getting no push, Luck’s passes were wobbly, and receivers were making untimely drops. Indianapolis’s first four possessions were all three-and-outs. On their only decent possession, the final one of the half, Luck led an impressive drive down most of the field. Unfortunately, he and the offense ran out of time before they could make it to the end zone. So, they were forced to settle for a 23 yard field-goal, which Vinateri missed.

Meanwhile, Kansas City looked great, anchored by an offensive line that was pushing around their inferior opponents all day. Williams had tons of space to run, and Mahomes looked like his typical comfortable self. By the end of the third quarter, the game was virtually over. There would be no miraculous comeback for the Colts. After such an impressive performance, you’d expect the Chiefs to be the talk of the town. However, on the other side of the AFC bracket, the Patriots were preparing for their very own beatdown of their very own overmatched opponent.


Los Angeles Rams (13-3) defeat Dallas Cowboys (10-6), 30-22
While the final score was somewhat close, the Rams were by far the better team in this one. Gurley and Anderson were given big holes to run through all day. Goff was given ample time to throw to his many receiving threats. And other than a couple of big plays, the Rams defense was relatively sound. Los Angeles kept Dallas on their heels, utilizing numerous wide receiver end-arounds, which was critical to opening up those aforementioned holes in the Cowboy defensive front. Anderson and Gurley combined for an absurd 238 yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries. The Rams ran the ball on a ridiculous 52 out of 80 plays. Los Angeles’s strategy was clear: run the ball as much as possible. While the strategy was obviously successful, it was a bit surprising, considering Dallas had the 5th best rushing defense during the regular season.

As for the Cowboys, they were able to get some solid production out of Gallup and Cooper, but they were simply never able to get the running game going, as Zeke was held to a pedestrian 47 yards on 20 carries. In retrospect, it would seem that the Cowboys should have tried some more creative ways to get the running game going. The only player other than Elliot to run the ball was Prescott (2 carries). Elliot is obviously a talented running back, but when your offensive scheme utilizes absolutely no misdirection, it’s going to be tough to get the running game going, no matter how talented your players are.


New England Patriots (11-5) defeat Los Angeles Chargers (12-4), 41-28
This game was an absolute thrashing. I should have known better than to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs, but I guess I am just too stupid/stubborn to know better. Perhaps the most interesting part of the game was how simple it was. The New England offense focused on the run game and the short passing game, and it worked brilliantly throughout their first half beatdown of Los Angeles. Brady was hitting his check downs with ease, and finding Edelman on crossing patterns and quick outs. Meanwhile, Michael was finding giant holes in the Los Angeles defense, easily gashing them for over 100 yards on the ground in the first half. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers had no answers for the Patriots blitz. Rivers was constantly under pressure, being forced to heave passes to receivers who were well covered deep downfield. Before you could blink an eye, New England was up 35-7, and the game was virtually over.

For a team that was so tough to beat for so many teams this season, the Chargers looked completely overmatched in this one. It would be easy to point to New England’s wealth of playoff experience as a major factor, but because of the frequency of roster turnover in the NFL, the value of a team’s “playoff experience” is generally exaggerated, in my opinion. Of course, of the two quarterbacks, Brady looked much more comfortable than Rivers. That being said, Rivers has played in a number of playoff games himself, as this was his 11th game as a starter. While his playoff numbers are dwarfed by Brady’s, you would have expected both quarterbacks to be comfortable in a high pressure situation like this one. Unfortunately for the Chargers, that was simply not the case.


New Orleans Saints (13-3) defeat Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), 20-14
One year ago, the Saints were eliminated from the playoffs in devastating fashion, by way of the Minneapolis Miracle. Back for redemption, New Orleans were almost eliminated in the Divisional Round again this season, as Philadelphia gave them all they could handle on Sunday. While this win was certainly satisfying for the Saints, the plan for their redemption tour was not to stop at the Conference Championship. New Orleans has their sights set on a Super Bowl Championship, and allowing the Eagles to keep this game so close must have been concerning for them.

It looked like this game had the potential to be disastrous for New Orleans from the beginning. On the very first play of the game, Brees threw an interception on an underthrown deep ball. Foles then immediately led the Eagles down the field on a convincing touchdown drive. Fans at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium started to get even more nervous, as a three-and-out, followed by another impressive Eagles touchdown drive made the score 14-0. Things were quickly getting out of hand. The Nick Foles magic was in the air.

The next drive saw Brees fumble the ball twice. Fortunately, the Saints were able to recover both. However, they were still held to a punt, giving the ball back to the Eagles, down 14-0. Nothing seemed to be working for New Orleans, until a timely Lattimore interception, followed by a solid touchdown drive, kept the game close. At halftime, the score was 14-10. The second half was defined by two moments, one long and one short: an 11.5 minute touchdown drive by the Saints, which kept the Philadelphia offense off the field for nearly an entire quarter; and the Alshon Jeffery drop that, in an instant, led to the game-sealing interception, just as it seemed as though the Eagles were on their way to a dramatic game-winning touchdown drive. The Eagles will be devastated to have ended the season like this, but for what it’s worth, it was an impressive showing for a team that barely made the playoffs, against the top seeded team from the regular season (one they lost to by 41 points in Week 11).


All four remaining teams are a mere two wins away from capturing the ultimate prize. So, who will it be? Who will represent each Conference in the biggest sporting event of the year? You’ll just have to wait until my Conference Championship predictions are released to find out. Stay tuned! 

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