The top 4 seeds are through to the Conference Championship Round!
Good for them! Unfortunately, that is not what I predicted would happen. It
looks like my incredible predictive playoff powers were short-lived, as I
missed most of my picks in the Divisional Round. I correctly predicted that two
games would be close and two would be blowouts. However, I incorrectly
predicted that the close games would be in the AFC and the blowouts would be in
the NFC, as I got that part exactly backwards. Woops! Anyways, I went 2-2
straight up and 1-3 ATS, bringing my playoff totals to 5-3 straight up and
4-3-1 ATS. The good news is that I am slightly better than .500 ATS. The bad
news is that mediocrity will not be tolerated at Brosh Knows Football, Inc. My
editor has already informed me that if I don’t improve my predictions during
Conference Championship Weekend, I could be let go before the Super Bowl… uh
oh! I better turn this around quick!
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) defeat Indianapolis Colts (10-6), 31-13
While I recognized that Indianapolis might have trouble containing
the potent Kansas City offense, I did not consider the fact that the Colts
offense would be rendered totally useless in this Divisional Round clash.
Indianapolis offense looked uncomfortable and ineffective from the beginning.
The line was getting no push, Luck’s passes were wobbly, and receivers were
making untimely drops. Indianapolis’s first four possessions were all
three-and-outs. On their only decent possession, the final one of the half,
Luck led an impressive drive down most of the field. Unfortunately, he and the
offense ran out of time before they could make it to the end zone. So, they
were forced to settle for a 23 yard field-goal, which Vinateri missed.
Meanwhile, Kansas City looked great, anchored by an offensive line
that was pushing around their inferior opponents all day. Williams had tons of
space to run, and Mahomes looked like his typical comfortable self. By the end
of the third quarter, the game was virtually over. There would be no miraculous
comeback for the Colts. After such an impressive performance, you’d expect the
Chiefs to be the talk of the town. However, on the other side of the AFC
bracket, the Patriots were preparing for their very own beatdown of their very
own overmatched opponent.
Los Angeles Rams (13-3) defeat Dallas Cowboys (10-6), 30-22
While the final score was somewhat close, the Rams were by far the
better team in this one. Gurley and Anderson were given big holes to run
through all day. Goff was given ample time to throw to his many receiving
threats. And other than a couple of big plays, the Rams defense was relatively
sound. Los Angeles kept Dallas on their heels, utilizing numerous wide receiver
end-arounds, which was critical to opening up those aforementioned holes in the
Cowboy defensive front. Anderson and Gurley combined for an absurd 238 yards
and three touchdowns on 39 carries. The Rams ran the ball on a ridiculous 52
out of 80 plays. Los Angeles’s strategy was clear: run the ball as much as
possible. While the strategy was obviously successful, it was a bit surprising,
considering Dallas had the 5th best rushing defense during the regular season.
As for the Cowboys, they were able to get some solid production
out of Gallup and Cooper, but they were simply never able to get the running
game going, as Zeke was held to a pedestrian 47 yards on 20 carries. In
retrospect, it would seem that the Cowboys should have tried some more creative
ways to get the running game going. The only player other than Elliot to run
the ball was Prescott (2 carries). Elliot is obviously a talented running back,
but when your offensive scheme utilizes absolutely no misdirection, it’s going
to be tough to get the running game going, no matter how talented your players
are.
New England Patriots (11-5) defeat Los Angeles Chargers (12-4),
41-28
This game was an absolute thrashing. I should have known better
than to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs, but I guess I am just too
stupid/stubborn to know better. Perhaps the most interesting part of the game
was how simple it was. The New England offense focused on the run game and the
short passing game, and it worked brilliantly throughout their first half
beatdown of Los Angeles. Brady was hitting his check downs with ease, and
finding Edelman on crossing patterns and quick outs. Meanwhile, Michael was
finding giant holes in the Los Angeles defense, easily gashing them for over
100 yards on the ground in the first half. On the defensive side of the ball,
the Chargers had no answers for the Patriots blitz. Rivers was constantly under
pressure, being forced to heave passes to receivers who were well covered deep
downfield. Before you could blink an eye, New England was up 35-7, and the game
was virtually over.
For a team that was so tough to beat for so many teams this
season, the Chargers looked completely overmatched in this one. It would be
easy to point to New England’s wealth of playoff experience as a major factor,
but because of the frequency of roster turnover in the NFL, the value of a
team’s “playoff experience” is generally exaggerated, in my opinion. Of course,
of the two quarterbacks, Brady looked much more comfortable than Rivers. That
being said, Rivers has played in a number of playoff games himself, as this was
his 11th game as a starter. While his playoff numbers are dwarfed by Brady’s,
you would have expected both quarterbacks to be comfortable in a high pressure
situation like this one. Unfortunately for the Chargers, that was simply not
the case.
New Orleans Saints (13-3) defeat Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), 20-14
One year ago, the Saints were eliminated from the playoffs in
devastating fashion, by way of the Minneapolis Miracle. Back for redemption,
New Orleans were almost eliminated in the Divisional Round again this season,
as Philadelphia gave them all they could handle on Sunday. While this win was
certainly satisfying for the Saints, the plan for their redemption tour was not
to stop at the Conference Championship. New Orleans has their sights set on a
Super Bowl Championship, and allowing the Eagles to keep this game so close
must have been concerning for them.
It looked like this game had the potential to be disastrous for
New Orleans from the beginning. On the very first play of the game, Brees threw
an interception on an underthrown deep ball. Foles then immediately led the
Eagles down the field on a convincing touchdown drive. Fans at the
Mercedes-Benz Stadium started to get even more nervous, as a three-and-out,
followed by another impressive Eagles touchdown drive made the score 14-0.
Things were quickly getting out of hand. The Nick Foles magic was in the air.
The next drive saw Brees fumble the ball twice. Fortunately, the
Saints were able to recover both. However, they were still held to a punt,
giving the ball back to the Eagles, down 14-0. Nothing seemed to be working for
New Orleans, until a timely Lattimore interception, followed by a solid
touchdown drive, kept the game close. At halftime, the score was 14-10. The second half was defined by two moments, one long and one short: an
11.5 minute touchdown drive by the Saints, which kept the Philadelphia offense
off the field for nearly an entire quarter; and the Alshon Jeffery drop that,
in an instant, led to the game-sealing interception, just as it seemed as
though the Eagles were on their way to a dramatic game-winning touchdown drive.
The Eagles will be devastated to have ended the season like this, but for what
it’s worth, it was an impressive showing for a team that barely made the playoffs,
against the top seeded team from the regular season (one they lost to by 41
points in Week 11).
All four remaining teams are a mere two wins away from capturing
the ultimate prize. So, who will it be? Who will represent each Conference in
the biggest sporting event of the year? You’ll just have to wait until my
Conference Championship predictions are released to find out. Stay tuned!
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