The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time in awhile,
there is no clear favorite to win it all. The Saints, Rams, and Chiefs look to
be the clear top contenders, but they have all shown weaknesses during the
Regular Season. Meanwhile, that list doesn’t include Brady and the Patriots,
who are always a threat to win it all. Besides the teams on Bye, you could make
a case that any of the eight teams below are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Andrew Luck appears in top form. The Texans have looked nearly unbeatable over
the second half of the season. Wilson and the Seahawks are always a threat to
turn January into a magical playoff run. Dallas is a well-built team, capable
of staying competitive with any other team in the league. The Chargers were a tie-breaker
away from being the top seed in the AFC. Baltimore has looked like a totally
different team with Jackson at quarterback. The Eagles are the defending
champs, and Foles has looked like his 2018-playoff self over the last three
weeks. And Chicago may be the best team playing on Wild Card Weekend. It’s
truly any team’s Super Bowl to win. For now, let’s just focus on Wild Card
Weekend…
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ Houston Texans (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Texans -1.5)
These two teams split their regular season series, with each team
winning on the road by the exact same margin, three points. For that reason,
this game will serve as the perfect rubber match to decide who moves on as the
lone AFC South representative in the playoffs. Both teams head into the
playoffs on a good run of form, as the Texans and Colts have won 11 of their
last 13 games and 9 of their last 10 games, respectively. Deshaun Watson is
playing at a competent level, which is really all Houston need thanks to their
high-powered defense, which features Clowney, Watt, Mercilus (great name), and
McKinney. For Indianapolis, it will be about the offense. With Luck apparently
back to full strength, the Colts offense looks like one of the best in the
league again. Containing his weapons of Mack, Hilton, and Ebron will be the
main task for this Texan defense. So, who will win this classic battle of
offense vs. defense?
Prediction: The first half is a tight affair, as both teams seem a
bit nervy out of the gate. At the break, the score is 10-10. The Colts come out
hot in the second half, as Mack breaks free for a long touchdown. Luck adds two
more scores through the air, as the Colts cruise to victory, 31-20
Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -2.0)
Seattle is another team that closed the season very strong,
winning 6 of their final 7 games, including an impressive win over the Chiefs
(and an inexplicable loss to the 49ers). Wilson has been great down the
stretch, as Seattle has been able to utilize play-action extremely well, thanks
to an incredibly effective running game. The trio of Carson, Davis, and Penny
have been great. And the speed of Baldwin and Lockett have forced opposing
secondaries to stay honest against the running game. While their defense is
certainly not as good as it was during the days of the Legion of Boom, it is
still a formidable unit. As for Dallas, they also closed the season strong (I’m
sensing a trend here), winning 7 of their final 8 games, albeit in less
impressive fashion. While Dallas did well to win many games down the stretch,
all their wins were by single scores (though one of those wins was against the
Saints, which is fairly impressive, no matter what the score). Fortunately for
the neutral fan, the Cowboy defense has been great this season, particularly
against the run, which should add some intrigue to the battle in the trenches.
With such an evenly contested match, one big play could change it all, but who
will be the player to step up and make that play?
Prediction: Dallas gets out to the early lead, as Elliot dominates
on the ground in the early-going. Heading into the third quarter, the Cowboys
lead, 20-10. Dallas begins to play conservative, as they try to protect their
lead, which gives Wilson enough time to lead the Seahawks to a comeback. When
Janikowski hits the game-tying field goal with no time left in Regulation, the
game heads to overtime. Seattle wins the toss, and Wilson marches Seattle all
the way down the field for the touchdown, ending the game before Prescott and
the Cowboys can even touch the ball. Seahawks win, 26-20.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Ravens -3.0)
This is a tough one for me. On one hand, the Chargers finished
tied for the best record in the AFC, and they have a quarterback who has 14
more years of experience than the opposing team’s quarterback. On the other
hand, Baltimore won when these two teams met in Week 16 of the regular season,
in a game that was critical for both teams, and Baltimore comes into this game
having won 6 of 7 games with Lamar Jackson behind Center (OK, fine, just about
every playoff team had a strong end to their season). Historically, rookie
quarterbacks have a tough time in the playoffs. However, you don’t have to look
too far back in time to find a rookie success story. During Joe Flacco’s rookie
year (2008), he led the Ravens to the AFC Title game, only to lose to the
Steelers. Now, Flacco will be sitting on the bench, as he’ll watch to see if
Jackson can repeat his success. This is another game that feels like it could
go either way. So, will rookie success win the day, or will experience at
quarterback prove to be the critical factor?
Prediction: Jackson and the Baltimore offense appear nervous out
of the gates. In their first two possessions, Jackson loses the ball on a
fumble and then throws a bad interception. Los Angeles capitalizes on both
opportunities to the tune of a 10-0 lead. However, Baltimore creeps back into
the contest, and they eventually tie the game with a Tucker 57 yard field goal
late in the fourth quarter. However, Rivers immediately leads the Chargers down
the field, and sets them up in field goal position with no time left. To the
shock of Charger fans everywhere, Badgley hits the 42 yard field goal as time
expires, and Los Angeles wins, 20-17.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ Chicago Bears (12-4)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Bears -6.5)
Is Nick Foles ready to lead the Eagles on another historic run
through the playoffs? Foles is 4-1 as a starter this season, including wins
against the Texans and Rams. That being said, it seems unlikely that these
Eagles make a deep run in the playoffs. While the heroic narrative of Foles
leading another unlikely charge though the playoffs is certainly an exciting
playoff narrative, it’s a tall order for this mediocre 9-7 team. As for the
Bears, they head into their first playoff game since the 2010 season, led by a
second year quarterback. While Trubisky has proven to be competent this season,
I would be nervous about how he will react to his first NFL playoff start.
Additionally, if you’re looking for any reason that the Bears should be less
than 100% confident that they can advance to the next round of the playoffs,
look no further than the fact that Chicago had the easiest strength of schedule
in the NFL this season at 0.430. So, maybe their record is a bit inflated.
Still, 12 wins is an impressive feat against any NFL schedule.
Prediction: Defense owns the first half, as neither team is able
to find the end zone. Going into the halftime break, the Bears lead 6-3. Both
offenses have more success at the start of the second half, as each team find
the endzone on their opening drive of the third quarter. The game continues to
go back and forth until late in the fourth quarter. Down 20-16 with less than
two minutes to play, Foles leads the Eagles on a miraculous drive down the
field. On 3rd and Goal from the 5 yard line, Foles is flushed out of the
pocket. He finds some running room, and is able to score on the ground, finding
the endzone with an incredible Superman dive. The Eagles shock the Bears,
23-20.
So I guess I’m going with all the underdogs… that doesn’t seem
smart... Oh well! Enjoy Wild Card Weekend!
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