Friday, January 4, 2019

Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Weekend 2019


The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time in awhile, there is no clear favorite to win it all. The Saints, Rams, and Chiefs look to be the clear top contenders, but they have all shown weaknesses during the Regular Season. Meanwhile, that list doesn’t include Brady and the Patriots, who are always a threat to win it all. Besides the teams on Bye, you could make a case that any of the eight teams below are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Andrew Luck appears in top form. The Texans have looked nearly unbeatable over the second half of the season. Wilson and the Seahawks are always a threat to turn January into a magical playoff run. Dallas is a well-built team, capable of staying competitive with any other team in the league. The Chargers were a tie-breaker away from being the top seed in the AFC. Baltimore has looked like a totally different team with Jackson at quarterback. The Eagles are the defending champs, and Foles has looked like his 2018-playoff self over the last three weeks. And Chicago may be the best team playing on Wild Card Weekend. It’s truly any team’s Super Bowl to win. For now, let’s just focus on Wild Card Weekend…

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ Houston Texans (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Texans -1.5)
These two teams split their regular season series, with each team winning on the road by the exact same margin, three points. For that reason, this game will serve as the perfect rubber match to decide who moves on as the lone AFC South representative in the playoffs. Both teams head into the playoffs on a good run of form, as the Texans and Colts have won 11 of their last 13 games and 9 of their last 10 games, respectively. Deshaun Watson is playing at a competent level, which is really all Houston need thanks to their high-powered defense, which features Clowney, Watt, Mercilus (great name), and McKinney. For Indianapolis, it will be about the offense. With Luck apparently back to full strength, the Colts offense looks like one of the best in the league again. Containing his weapons of Mack, Hilton, and Ebron will be the main task for this Texan defense. So, who will win this classic battle of offense vs. defense?
Prediction: The first half is a tight affair, as both teams seem a bit nervy out of the gate. At the break, the score is 10-10. The Colts come out hot in the second half, as Mack breaks free for a long touchdown. Luck adds two more scores through the air, as the Colts cruise to victory, 31-20

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -2.0)
Seattle is another team that closed the season very strong, winning 6 of their final 7 games, including an impressive win over the Chiefs (and an inexplicable loss to the 49ers). Wilson has been great down the stretch, as Seattle has been able to utilize play-action extremely well, thanks to an incredibly effective running game. The trio of Carson, Davis, and Penny have been great. And the speed of Baldwin and Lockett have forced opposing secondaries to stay honest against the running game. While their defense is certainly not as good as it was during the days of the Legion of Boom, it is still a formidable unit. As for Dallas, they also closed the season strong (I’m sensing a trend here), winning 7 of their final 8 games, albeit in less impressive fashion. While Dallas did well to win many games down the stretch, all their wins were by single scores (though one of those wins was against the Saints, which is fairly impressive, no matter what the score). Fortunately for the neutral fan, the Cowboy defense has been great this season, particularly against the run, which should add some intrigue to the battle in the trenches. With such an evenly contested match, one big play could change it all, but who will be the player to step up and make that play?
Prediction: Dallas gets out to the early lead, as Elliot dominates on the ground in the early-going. Heading into the third quarter, the Cowboys lead, 20-10. Dallas begins to play conservative, as they try to protect their lead, which gives Wilson enough time to lead the Seahawks to a comeback. When Janikowski hits the game-tying field goal with no time left in Regulation, the game heads to overtime. Seattle wins the toss, and Wilson marches Seattle all the way down the field for the touchdown, ending the game before Prescott and the Cowboys can even touch the ball. Seahawks win, 26-20.

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Ravens -3.0)
This is a tough one for me. On one hand, the Chargers finished tied for the best record in the AFC, and they have a quarterback who has 14 more years of experience than the opposing team’s quarterback. On the other hand, Baltimore won when these two teams met in Week 16 of the regular season, in a game that was critical for both teams, and Baltimore comes into this game having won 6 of 7 games with Lamar Jackson behind Center (OK, fine, just about every playoff team had a strong end to their season). Historically, rookie quarterbacks have a tough time in the playoffs. However, you don’t have to look too far back in time to find a rookie success story. During Joe Flacco’s rookie year (2008), he led the Ravens to the AFC Title game, only to lose to the Steelers. Now, Flacco will be sitting on the bench, as he’ll watch to see if Jackson can repeat his success. This is another game that feels like it could go either way. So, will rookie success win the day, or will experience at quarterback prove to be the critical factor?
Prediction: Jackson and the Baltimore offense appear nervous out of the gates. In their first two possessions, Jackson loses the ball on a fumble and then throws a bad interception. Los Angeles capitalizes on both opportunities to the tune of a 10-0 lead. However, Baltimore creeps back into the contest, and they eventually tie the game with a Tucker 57 yard field goal late in the fourth quarter. However, Rivers immediately leads the Chargers down the field, and sets them up in field goal position with no time left. To the shock of Charger fans everywhere, Badgley hits the 42 yard field goal as time expires, and Los Angeles wins, 20-17.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ Chicago Bears (12-4)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Bears -6.5)
Is Nick Foles ready to lead the Eagles on another historic run through the playoffs? Foles is 4-1 as a starter this season, including wins against the Texans and Rams. That being said, it seems unlikely that these Eagles make a deep run in the playoffs. While the heroic narrative of Foles leading another unlikely charge though the playoffs is certainly an exciting playoff narrative, it’s a tall order for this mediocre 9-7 team. As for the Bears, they head into their first playoff game since the 2010 season, led by a second year quarterback. While Trubisky has proven to be competent this season, I would be nervous about how he will react to his first NFL playoff start. Additionally, if you’re looking for any reason that the Bears should be less than 100% confident that they can advance to the next round of the playoffs, look no further than the fact that Chicago had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season at 0.430. So, maybe their record is a bit inflated. Still, 12 wins is an impressive feat against any NFL schedule.
Prediction: Defense owns the first half, as neither team is able to find the end zone. Going into the halftime break, the Bears lead 6-3. Both offenses have more success at the start of the second half, as each team find the endzone on their opening drive of the third quarter. The game continues to go back and forth until late in the fourth quarter. Down 20-16 with less than two minutes to play, Foles leads the Eagles on a miraculous drive down the field. On 3rd and Goal from the 5 yard line, Foles is flushed out of the pocket. He finds some running room, and is able to score on the ground, finding the endzone with an incredible Superman dive. The Eagles shock the Bears, 23-20.

So I guess I’m going with all the underdogs… that doesn’t seem smart... Oh well! Enjoy Wild Card Weekend!

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