The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time in 14 years, I have an actual interest in the outcome of a game. The Raiders are back. Unfortunately, they are hobbled because of Carr’s broken fibula. Still, no matter how bleak a team’s chances may look, there is always that slight chance that that gives fans hope. That slight chance that your team can go on a run and make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Hope has gotten many fans this far. Now, hope is all I’ve got.
Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Texans -3.5)
The Raiders exceeded all expectations this season. Though they never looked dominant - other than an impressive showing on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos and a decisive win against the aimless Jaguars - they were impressive in their ability to close out tough games and beat good opponents. It was turning into an all time great season for the Silver and Black, and then, with less than five quarters separating Carr and the Raiders from hosting a playoff game, the unthinkable happened. Carr broke his leg, sucking the life out of the entire Raider team. Suddenly, Super Bowl aspirations turned to prayers, as Oakland has simply not been the same without Carr behind center. Is Carr the best quarterback in the league? No. Is he the most valuable though? Possibly. Carr has become the heartbeat of the Raiders. Without him, Oakland nearly blew a 19 point 4th quarter lead against the Colts. Obviously the offense is worse off without him, but the defense and special teams don’t play with the same energy when he is not healthy as well. In Week 17, when things seemed dire already, Matt McGloin went down with a shoulder injury. Now, in his first career start, Connor Cook will be tasked with leading the Raiders to victory in the playoffs. I have faith in Cook. He didn’t look rattled by the mighty Denver defense in Week 17, but the playoffs are a whole new challenge. On Saturday, we will find out whether or not the moment is too big for him. What Oakland needs now is a motivational boost. Only time will tell if they are able to find it before kickoff.
On the other side of the ball, Houston is the clear cut weakest division champion in the NFL (and possibly the weakest team in the playoffs). The Texans have their own questions surrounding their quarterback. Osweiler was benched earlier in the season for poor play. Now, due to the concussion to Tom Savage, Osweiler will retake his starting spot under center in the Wild Card Round on Saturday. The Raiders have already faced off against Osweiler and the Texans in Mexico City this season. That game was an ugly slugfest that eventually saw the Raiders coming out victorious, 27-20. However, that game really could have gone either way. The Texans defense is very solid, and if they play to their ability, they should be able to rock Oakland’s rookie signal-caller. If Houston’s defensive line can outplay the juggernaut that is the Oakland offensive line, Houston should be able to win this one handedly.
Prediction: This game starts out just as ugly as expected with four turnovers in the first half, as Houston goes into the break with a narrow 6-3 lead. After halftime, both offenses look better, as both teams are able to find the endzone in the third quarter. With five minutes remaining, Connor Cook leads the Raiders down the field, giving them the lead 17-16, with less than two minutes to play. Reggie Nelson intercepts Osweiller on the ensuing possession, sealing the game. Raiders win, 17-16.
Detroit Lions (9-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Seahawks -8.0)
Seattle drew the weakest team in the NFC in the Wild Card Round (which is fair considering they are the 3 seed). Seattle has been great at home this year, going 7-1, and the betting line clearly values that information, as Seattle are big favorites in this game. On the flip side,Seattle has had immense trouble succeeding on the road this season. They will have to turn that bad form around if they hope to make it past the Divisional Round (assuming they make it past the Lions first). This game is certainly not a lock, as Seattle’s defense has been far less feared since the injury to Earl Thomas. However, Stafford has not looked the same since he injured a finger on his throwing hand. Even before the injury, the Lion offense has not been nearly as potent as we are used to. Detroit ranked 21st in yards per game this season, and 30th in rush yards per game. The defense was similarly mediocre, ranking around the middle of the league in all major categories. Based on the abilities of both of these teams, I imagine it will be the Lion defense that will have to step up for Detroit if they hope to escape Seattle with a victory. Russell Wilson has been terribly inconsistent all season, and if they can take advantage of his poor play, they may be able to keep this game close. Both teams have not been playing at their top capacity lately. I could definitely see this one going either way. Still, if I know one thing, it is that Seattle is always tough to beat at home, especially in the playoffs...
Prediction: This game is back and forth from the beginning, as Seattle keeps a one score lead for most of the game. Heading into the fourth quarter, Detroit trails by seven. The Lions score a touchdown on their first drive of the quarter, tying the game at 23. With time running out in the fourth quarter, Wilson leads the Seattle offense down the field, setting up Hauschka for a game-winning 36 yard field goal. He misses. In overtime, Detroit gets the ball first, but Stafford immediately throws a pick to Richard Sherman. Again Hauschka lines up for a 36 yard field goal. This time, he nails it. Seahawks win, 26-23.
Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Steelers -10.0)
Miami features the third AFC playoff team that will be relying on a quarterback who is making his first career playoff start. Matt Moore has looked comfortable as the starter for the Dolphins since the injury to Tannehill, especially when he is making throws to Jarvis Landry. Alongside Devante Parker, the Dolphins have a very good tandem at wide receiver that complements the prolific talents of Jay Ajayi quite well. Miami has been great on the ground, but that has also been where they have been gashed on defense all season. The Steelers are heavy favorites heading into this game, but it should be noted that Miami was able to defeat Pittsburgh back in Week 6, 30-15. Of course, that game was in Miami, when the Dolphins still had Ryan Tannehill available.
The Steelers are an obvious offensive juggernaut, with the three-headed monster of Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger has plenty of playoff experience, and Antonio Brown may be the most talented player in the league. Pittsburgh seemed destined for failure back in Weeks 6-10, when they were in the midst of a four game losing streak. However, that seems like ages ago now, as the Steelers are currently the hottest team in the NFL, riding a seven game winning streak into the playoffs. It seems as though this game may come down to Pittsburgh’s ability to stop Jay Ajayi. They weren’t able to stop him from eclipsing 200 yards rushing in their first meeting...
Prediction: The Steelers come storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead. The Steelers continue to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 23-7 lead. Things settle down after that, as Miami begins to creep back into the game. Moore leads the Dolphins on back to back scoring drives in the second half, making it 23-21. However, on Miami’s next possession, Ajayi fumbles the ball, and James Harrison returns it for a score. Steelers win, 30-21.
New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Packers -5.0)
This should be the best game of the Wild Card Round. The Packers head into the playoffs riding a six game winning streak. The running game has come together, the defense is playing competently, and Rodgers is starting to look more like his former MVP self, just at the right time. Similarly to the Steelers, the Packers big winning streak was preceded by a four game losing streak that had seemingly doomed their season. The Packer winning streak included impressive thrashings of the Eagles and Seahawks. If that’s the type of team we see in the playoffs, the Packers may end up being serious Super Bowl contenders. Of course, it only takes one game to ruin a winning streak…
Enter the Giants. This is the best Giants team we have seen in some time. New York was able to defeat mighty Dallas twice this season. Other than Eagles’ meaningless Week 17 tilt with the Cowboys, no other team was even able to defeat Dallas once. Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. are wreaking havoc on opposing secondaries, the defensive line is applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks (even without their star defensive end, Jason Pierre-Paul), and Eli looks poised to make a run for a third Super Bowl. At their best, the Giants are a top team that can play with anyone in the NFL. Manning and Rodgers both have a wealth of playoff experience, so you know they will step up in the big game. I expect this game to come down to whether or not the Giants can put pressure on Rodgers, and how well Green Bay can contain OBJ and the rest of New York’s receiving core. It should be a great last game to the playoff weekend.
Prediction: This one is back and forth all game, with Green Bay taking a slim 14-13 lead into the half. The Giants are the hotter team out of halftime, scoring on both of their opening possessions, as they take and extend their first lead of the game, 23-14. However, Rodgers and the Packers come storming back and regain the lead off a big Montgomery rushing touchdown, 24-23. Green Bay has the ball late in the fourth quarter, when Rodgers finds Jordy Nelson for a 55 yard touchdown to ice it. Packers win 31-23.
There you have it. Four games. Four flawless predictions. Sorry about all the spoilers, but you knew what you were getting yourself into when you started reading this blog. Enjoy the first weekend of playoff action, and Go Raiders!
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