Where I was Right and Where I Was Wrong: 2016 Regular Season Recap

Due to a certain Silver and Black bias, this was one of the most entertaining NFL seasons of my life. Due to a certain Silver and Black bias, this was one of the most disappointing endings to an NFL season of my life. Fortunately, we aren’t here to bemoan the struggles of my favorite team (that would be a boring blog post). We are here to see just how amazing my predictions from the beginning of the year turned out to be (shockingly I did not get everything correct). After seventeen weeks of some predictability and some total unpredictability, the results are in. 20 teams have been deemed unworthy of the post-season, while 12 others will continue into January, all with Super Bowl aspirations. Here are the results of the 2016 NFL regular season, compared against my predictions:

Prediction	Actual
AFC West	AFC West
Broncos: 10-6	Chiefs 12-4
Raiders: 9-7	Raiders: 12-4
Chiefs: 9-7	Broncos: 9-7
Chargers: 5-11	Chargers: 5-11
AFC North	AFC North
Steelers: 12-4	Steelers: 11-5
Bengals: 10-6	Ravens: 8-8
Ravens: 7-9	Bengals: 6-9-1
Browns: 4-12	Browns: 1-15
AFC South	AFC South
Jaguars: 9-7	Texans: 9-7
Colts: 9-7	Titans: 9-7
Texans: 8-8	Colts: 8-8
Titans: 5-11	Jaguars: 3-13
AFC East	AFC East
Patriots: 12-4	Patriots: 14-2
Bills: 10-6	Dolphins: 10-6
Jets: 10-6	Bills: 7-9
Dolphins: 4-12	Jets: 5-11
NFC West	NFC West
Seahawks: 12-4	Seahawks: 10-5-1
Cardinals: 11-5	Cardinals: 7-8-1
Rams: 5-11	Rams: 4-10
49ers: 3-13	49ers: 2-14
NFC North	NFC North
Packers: 12-4	Packers: 10-6
Vikings: 8-8	Lions: 9-7
Bears: 6-10	Vikings: 8-8
Lions: 5-11	Bears: 3-13
NFC South	NFC South
Panthers: 10-6	Falcons: 11-5
Falcons: 9-7	Buccaneers: 9-7
Buccaneers: 8-8	Saints: 7-9
Saints: 6-10	Panthers: 6-10
NFC East	NFC East
Giants: 9-7	Cowboys: 13-3
Redskins: 8-8	Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 6-10	Redskins: 8-7-1
Eagles: 5-11	Eagles: 7-9

Quick Stats:

Average Differential Between Predicted and Actual: 2.5

Correct Predictions: 2

Predictions Within 1 Game: 12

Predictions Off by 3 or More Games: 14

Worst Prediction: Cowboys (Prediction: 6-10, Actual: 13-3)

Playoff Teams: 6/12

Division Winners: 4/8

Most Accurately Predicted Division: AFC West + NFC West (Off by 7 games)

Least Accurately Predicted Division: AFC East (Off by 16 games)

Based on these stats, it would appear that I get a little worse at this each year. Oh well. Let’s take a closer look at how we got here, and how I was inexplicably unable to perfectly predict the finish of all 32 NFL teams.

AFC West

As is usually the case, I had a decent sense of what was to transpire in the AFC West this season. It was always going to be a tight three team race. Of course, the Broncos fell off towards the end, and I did not predict just how good the Chiefs and Raiders would be. Kansas City has been the most consistent team in the division, on their way to amassing a perfect 6-0 divisional record. The big storyline for the Raiders is obviously the injury to Derek Carr. Carr has been the emotional leader of the Silver and Black all season. Since his injury, the Raiders have been outscored 35-6, which included Sunday’s thrashing by the Broncos.

Denver will be disappointed to have missed the playoffs. The Broncos were inconsistent and were hurt by finishing 2-4 in the division. However, the defensive core is still strong, and they can only improve on offense as Lynch and Siemian continue to gain experience. At the bottom of the heap, San Diego was the weak link again this season. The season was disappointing, but the disappointment may only be just beginning for San Diegans (San Diegoites? San Diegoins?), as the Chargers are most likely moving to Los Angeles. Either way, we will find out soon enough, as they must exercise their option to relocate by January 15th.

AFC North

The Ravens were a brief threat to the Steelers’ supremacy, but Pittsburgh was able to shake them off, finishing three games ahead of Baltimore in the race for the AFC North crown. The Steelers enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL, riding a 7 game winning streak. Baltimore will surely regret their Week 16 loss to the Steelers when they look back on this season. A win there would have put them in control of the division. Instead, the Ravens crawled to the finish line, with back to back losses.

The Bengals were able to defeat the Ravens in a meaningless Week 17 matchup, but that won’t do much to make them feel better about their failure of a season, which saw an end to their 5 season playoff appearance streak (a streak which saw them win 0 playoff games). However, no year was as disappointing as that of the Browns. The Browns continue to torture the fans in Cleveland. I predicted they would be bad, but I was not even bold enough to predict that they would be this bad. At least they won one game this year. Things can only go up from here, right?

AFC South

So, I took a gamble here, and it did not pay off. I decided that the Jaguars were finally playoff worthy this season. I was very wrong. I was right about the division winner finishing at 9-7 though. This division is awful. While I love the four team divisional format of the NFL, the AFC South would be the perfect counterpoint if you were to argue that this format is awful. Ever since the departure of Peyton Manning, the Colts and Texans have battled for the division title every season, in their war of mediocrity. For the second straight season, the Texans won that battle, finishing at 9-7, without the use of a competent quarterback. This season, the Titans threw their hat into the ring of mediocrity. They were able to remain competitive into Week 16, as the Titans gave Houston their toughest challenge for the title. En route to finishing at 9-7, Tennessee showed that they might have the most potent offense in the division (which is not saying much).

Luck and the Colts were again disappointing. It’s amazing that the Indianapolis front office has not figured out a way to put Luck in positions to succeed. Luck is clearly a top talent, but there simply needs to be more talent around him. The Jaguars were clearly the worst team in the division this year. It appears Jacksonville is still far away from relevancy. Jacksonville’s prodigy receivers didn’t pan out this season, and Bortles has been incredibly disappointing, leaving many to question whether or not he will eventually succeed in the NFL. Maybe it’s time to rethink the quarterback position, as Bortles might not be worth the wait or effort anymore.

AFC East

I predicted that the Patriots would win the division this year. There is no pride in that prediction because that is an obvious thing to predict, just as it has been for the past fifteen years or so. The Patriots saw one loss with Tom Brady behind center this season. The scarier part though is how dominant the defense was this season. The Patriots are a complete team, and they will be the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl this post-season. Other than the Patriots, I badly missed on my predictions for the rest of the division, especially the Jets and Dolphins, as I nearly flipped their records exactly. Miami proved to be a competent team, though they were incredibly inconsistent. Miami barely escaped defeat against Cleveland earlier in the season, but they also dominated Pittsburgh in Week 6, in what turned out to be a playoff preview. We will find out soon whether or not Miami is a pretender or contender, as they face the hottest team in the NFL on this coming Wild Card Weekend.

The Bills were supposed to be true challengers to the Patriots this season (I predicted a playoff berth); however, it turned out that the front office of this team is in total disarray, and no one really makes any executive decisions. Doug Whaley’s end of season presser was odd to say the least. Rex Ryan’s firing seems appropriate, considering all the talent in Buffalo. Maybe it’s time he rides off into the sunse - I mean snow - of Western New York. Buffalo has a talented squad, maybe a new coach will bring out the best in the team. Seems unlikely though, based on the dysfunctional state of team management. Finally, I thought too highly of the Jets this season. Last year, New York exceeded my expectations, nearly making the playoffs. Feeling ashamed of my total lack of confidence in New York, I predicted a solid 10 win season. Yet again, the Jets made me look like a fool, finishing last in the AFC East. This team has a lot of work to do in the off-season, with the biggest concern being who will be lining up under center next season (definitely Jay Cutler).

NFC West

Was this the worst division in the NFL? I think so. The AFC South definitely makes a solid case for taking that title, but at least the AFC South had multiple teams with winning records (though 9-7 is not really anything to be that proud of). The NFC West was terrible. The Rams and Niners are possibly the two worst teams in the NFL, and the Cardinals had a disastrous season, especially considering the high expectations for a team that made it to the conference championship last season. Other than the disappointing season for the Cardinals, I predicted the division pretty accurately, predicting the finishing order of all four teams correctly. Seattle was able to finish with 10 wins, but they were shockingly bad on the road this season, averaging under 16 points per game in those contests. Winning only 10 games while enjoying the easy schedule that the NFC West presents is not very impressive. The Cardinals failed to give the Seahawks much of a challenge for the division title, and this may be an ominous sign of the years to come for the Cardinals. Arizona’s window of opportunity may have shut with this season. David Johnson is an unreal talent, but Palmer may be overdue for retirement. Arizona’s defense was not as tough as last season, and the offense would have needed to have a competent passing game if they had hoped to succeed. Unfortunately, they did not, which is part of what cost them a return to the playoffs.

The Rams and Niners were atrocious this season. Los Angeles averaged 14 points per game, and ranked in the bottom two of nearly all relevant offensive categories. Jared Goff is in for a rough career if this team doesn’t find more talent on offense. The only good the Rams did this season was provide the Niners with their only wins of the season. San Francisco very well could have gone 0-16 had they not had the luxury of playing the Rams. Still, the worst days for the Niners are probably not behind them yet (hard to imagine after going 2-14). Jed York decided to blow it up again, firing Trent Baalke (GM) and Chip Kelly (Head Coach) at the end of the season. This franchise is in total disarray. San Francisco is at least four years out from relevancy, and with such inept ownership, it could certainly be longer.

NFC North

Predicting the Packers to win this division never takes much courage, though they barely managed to do it this season. Even after a slow start, two games back from Detroit, and with only three weeks remaining on the schedule, I still thought they would win it. Detroit had not been convincing, and their two game lead in the division proved to be too precarious to protect from the surging Packers. Green Bay won the division on the final day of the regular season against the spiraling Lions. Even though Detroit couldn’t hold onto the division title, their success surprised me this season. They were quietly winning close game after close game, deep into the season. Unfortunately, their luck ran out at the end, as they are currently riding a three game losing streak into the playoffs, with a matchup in Seattle to look forward to in the Wild Card Round. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that was sitting in second place in the NFC with only three games remaining in the season.

Below the Lions in the race for the title was the Vikings. Although they started the season out hot, by winning their first 5 games, Minnesota’s luck soon fizzled out. As expected, the team struggled with Bradford at quarterback, as the injury to Bridgewater just before the start of the season was eventually too much to overcome. Still, 8-8 is a season to be proud of (and a prediction that I am proud of) for a team without a lot of talent on offense. But no roster in the NFC North was weaker than that of the Bears. Chicago was atrocious once again this season. Not having Cutler certainly didn’t help their cause, as I was not brave enough to predict that they would be this bad. Chicago is in full rebuild mode now, as their search for their next franchise quarterback will most likely begin next season.

NFC South

In what is normally a difficult division to predict, I did pretty well. Other than my prediction of Carolina repeating as division champs, I didn’t miss by too much here, as my predictions for the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints were all on point. Atlanta returned to the playoffs, as I expected, but they did so in dominating fashion (which I had not expected), as they were able to finish as the 2 seed in the NFC, just behind the Cowboys. Atlanta’s offense is once again beginning to resemble those teams from 2008 to 2012, in which Atlanta finished 13-3. Hopefully for fans of the Falcons, they will be able to win some playoff games. The Bucs nearly snagged a playoff spot as well, finishing at a solid 9-7. Tampa Bay was definitely a playoff caliber team, it just didn’t come totally together for them. Winston is finally showing that he has the potential to be a successful franchise quarterback, but will he be able to take the next step into the NFL playoffs next season?

New Orleans was on the unfortunate end of a few close games this year (including my favorite game of the season when they lost to Oakland 35-34). Brees is only getting older, so if the Saints hope to make a Super Bowl run, they are going to have to improve on defense fast. The offense was potent, but they’ll need to hold teams to fewer than 28 points per game if they hope to get Brees back to the Super Bowl before he hangs up his cleats for good. At the bottom of the NFC South, the Panthers finished at 6-10. Carolina was terribly disappointing, only a year removed from their Super Bowl appearance. The Panthers were not an awful team this season, as they were a tough challenge for a lot of good teams. Unfortunately, the main difference from last season was that last year, all the close games broke in their favor, while this year they did not. Newton is still a top talent, but he continues to shrink into his shell when the going gets tough. Even with this setback, I expect to see the Panthers back in the playoffs before too long.

NFC East

The NFC East had a great season, as the entire division outperformed my predictions. The emergence of talent in Dallas shocked me, as Dak looked like a veteran quarterback less than three weeks into the season. Of course, the talent around him is immense, but you can’t discount Dak’s ability. We saw what happened when Romo was injured last year. Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore combined for a record of 1-11 while Romo was out. Prescott was clearly an enormous step up from those perennial backups, proving that he is worthy of an NFL starting gig, finishing the season with 13 wins. Now, how far can he and Zeke make it in the playoffs? Though the Giants won more games than I predicted, they were not able to win the division, as I expected. This was the best New York has looked in the regular season in quite awhile. They quietly racked up 11 wins, a win total that they had only amassed once since 2006 (a period of time which saw two Super Bowl championships). Only one question remains, are the Giants too good to win a Super Bowl? New York’s Super Bowls came from 9 and 10 win teams. Eleven wins might be too many for this team, as the Giants play their best when they are outperforming their regular season performance.

The Redskins nearly snuck into the playoffs as well this season. It would have been fitting for the NFC East to snag three playoff spots, as they were the best division in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Giants prevented that from happening, defeating the Redskins on the final week of the regular season. Washington was once again solid, and with a young talented QB who is surrounded by a quality squad, I expect them to compete with the top teams of the NFL for a number of years to come. The Eagles finished last in the NFC East, in what was a not-so-disappointing season. Wentz won seven games as a rookie, which is quite impressive. Unfortunately, he had the worst quarterback rating in the NFL, at 79.3. Wentz has a lot of work to do before he can prove himself as a consistent NFL starter. Fortunately for Philadelphia, this team is clearly good enough to win in spite of him. If Wentz continues to improve, this team could be dangerous in the near future.

So, I didn't get every single prediction right. I guess that happens sometimes. Fortunately, I have the opportunity to quickly redeem myself with playoff predictions! I will be attempting to go for a perfect record of playoff predictions this season, hoping to improve on my impressive prediction record of 10-1 Straight Up and 9-1-1 ATS from last year's post-season. So stay tuned for my Wild Card Weekend predictions; they are just a blog post away!