2017 Wild Card Weekend Recap

Four games. Four blowouts. For the most part, last weekend’s slate of games were largely uninteresting. Each game had its moment where you thought the underdog was only a couple of big plays away from making things interesting, but those big plays never came. All the home teams advanced. All the favorites won. Every division is down to their final representative. Now, things begin to heat up, as the final eight teams battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy. As for my playoff predictions, I got off to a rough start to 2017. I’m 3-1 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) after the first weekend. Quite mediocre.

Houston Texans (9-7) defeat Oakland Raiders (12-4), 27-14

Well, it looks like I let my bias get in the way of this prediction. I was clearly reading too much Raider propaganda before this game, as all the hopeful Raider analysts were praising Connor Cook for his surprising amount of maturity and skill for a rookie. None of that showed, as Cook finished 18-45 for 161 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Those numbers are just horrific. The value of Carr has never been so clear for the Raiders. However, you have to give some of the credit to the Texan defense. Jadaveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus were unbelievable. The two of them, along with the rest of the Texan defense were making Cook’s day incredibly difficult, applying pressure and making big plays. Though it was never a fair fight, as the Raider offensive line was without its star LT Donald Penn, who had to sit out with a knee injury for the first time in 155 games.

My prediction of a 1 point Raider victory may not have been so awful had the Raiders, who had had the best turnover margin in the league during the regular season (+16), had not finished with a turnover differential of -3. Turnovers set up the Texan offense with great field position all day. Capitalizing on turnovers, Osweiler and the offense had to do very little to score points and keep the game out of reach. The run game was also great for Houston, as they finished with 123 yards rushing, to match their pedestrian 168 yards through the air. The Texan offensive line outplayed the Raider defensive line as well, winning the ground game and not allowing a sack. The 27-14 scoreline was probably a little generous to the Raiders, who never had a chance after halftime. Going into this game, Houston knew they had a great opportunity to win a playoff game, as they had been an impressive 7-1 at home during the regular season. With the help of the home crowd, the Texans were able to take care of business, knocking out the Raiders in dominating fashion.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) defeat Detroit Lions (9-7), 26-6

I predicted half of this game perfectly, as the Seahawks scored exactly 26 points. Unfortunately for my prediction, Detroit did not score exactly 23 points. It was a classic game for Seattle, playing tough, aggressive defense, and doing just enough on offense to secure a win. This game was tight until the fourth quarter, but it always seemed like Seattle had things under control, as their defense was giving Stafford and the rest of the Lion offense no chance to succeed. Wilson was his usual efficient and mistake-free self, going 23-30 for 224 yards and 2 TDs, while Stafford was mediocre with only 205 yards passing. The Lions failed to find the endzone, and Rawls had a phenomenal game, rushing for 161 yards.

Detroit fans will bemoan some of the more blatant missed calls, such as the clear facemask on Richardson’s phenomenal, first half, 4th & Goal touchdown catch. However, this Seattle team was simply never going to yield a score to the Lions. The game was certainly closer than the final score indicated, but Detroit was always outmatched by the Seahawks, as both the defense and Rawls had phenomenal days. While their defense and rushing game held firm, Richardson was able to make some big plays on the receiving end, helping Seattle secure a trip to Atlanta, which will be a rematch of a Week 7 contest that the Seahawks won, 26-24.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) defeat Miami Dolphins (10-6), 30-12

Much of my prediction for this game was incredibly accurate. The following table shows you just how smart I am:

Prediction	Actual Result
“The Steelers come storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.”	The Steelers came storming out from the opening kickoff, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.
“The Steelers continue to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 23-7 lead.”	The Steelers continued to maintain control, heading into halftime with a 20-6 lead.
“Steelers win, 30-21.”	Steelers won, 30-12

Flip that 21 around, and suddenly I am a genius (I mean, I’m a genius anyways, but you get the point). Once again, I predicted the final score for the winning team perfectly. As far as the game went, Antonio Brown came out of the gates looking like the best receiver in the NFL. Two short passes plus lots of yards after the catch, resulted in over 100 yards and two TDs within the first nine minutes of the game for Brown. Once the Steelers went up 14-0, Le’Veon Bell took over, grinding away on the ground, making it incredibly difficult for Miami to mount any sort of comeback. While the Steeler running game was strong, what made things more difficult for Miami was the three turnovers that Moore committed, especially since all three came on consecutive drives during the middle of the game. Other than the turnovers, Moore had an incredibly good game, going 29 of 36 for 289 yards. Unfortunately, both of Moore’s fumbles occurred on Pittsburgh’s side of the field, coming at incredibly inopportune times when Miami looked poise to score points.

The Dolphins scored a late touchdown to make the score look a little more respectable, but they were never truly in it after the Steelers’ offensive barrage in the first half. While the final score looked good for Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger and the Steelers have to be concerned about the turnovers they committed, especially as they look forward to their next game against Kansas City. Roethlisberger only threw two picks, but that would be too many against a Chiefs team that is great at capitalizing on opponent mistakes and holding onto the ball. Even though the Steelers are currently the hottest team in the NFL, riding the longest win streak in the league (eight games), the Chiefs are certainly good enough to end that streak, especially in the hostile environment of Arrowhead.

Green Bay Packers (10-6) defeat New York Giants (11-5), 38-13.

The final game of the weekend was my first correct prediction ATS of the playoffs. How exciting! Not to sound like a broken record, but this game was a lot closer than the score might indicate. The Giants were competitive deep into this game, until Green Bay came up with some timely big plays and turnovers, including Clay Matthews’ dope single-handed-strip-sack-fumble-recovery. It looked like Green Bay would only be up by a single point heading into halftime, until Rodgers completed another hail mary pass at the very end of the first half. Rodgers is quickly becoming a hail mary expert. The skills required to execute a good hail mary match up perfectly with Rodgers’ skillset, as his elusiveness allows his receivers enough time to get down the field, and his arm strength allows him to throw the ball 65+ yards through the air. Besides the hail mary, Rodgers’ elusiveness was on display all game, showing incredible footwork and awareness in the pocket, while escaping pass rushers and finding open receivers downfield. Meanwhile, the Giants were plagued by dropped passes, which included two potential touchdown catches that Beckham and Shepherd could not come down with on the first drive of the game.

Though the game was close throughout the first half, the Packers were finally able to put it away towards the end of the third quarter, on their way to a 38-13 rout. Even without Jordy Nelson for a majority of the contest, Rodgers finished with a phenomenal stat line: 362 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs. Cobb picked up the slack during Nelson’s absence, racking up 115 receiving yards and 3 TDs. While Cobb had a great game (certainly buoyed by the hail mary catch), one could argue that Davante Adams performed even better game than Cobb, reeling in 8 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD. If there were any concerns for the Packers after such a great performance, one could point out that Green Bay was once again unable to get the running game going, as Montgomery and Michael both put up pedestrian rushing numbers, which was disappointing for a team that was in the lead for most of the game. However, even without a running game, the Packers still looked like an incredibly strong side. Nearly as hot as the Steelers, this win marks Green Bay’s seventh consecutive victory. As the Packers prepare for another tilt with a tough NFC East foe, Green Bay must feel confident about their chances of returning to the Super Bowl, even after just one postseason game.

Four games down, seven to go. We are less than a month away from the Super Bowl now. Predictions for the Divisional Round will be coming soon, so stay tuned for more Brosh Knows Football!