The Divisional Playoff Round is upon us. Each of the eight divisions are still represented in the playoffs, as all division winners won on Wild Card Weekend. Every single game this weekend is a rematch from the regular season, which adds an extra bit of intrigue to each contest. What has each team learned since their previous matchup? What adjustments have they made? Who holds the advantage in each game, the winners or losers from the previous matchup? Due to injuries, how do the rosters compare to the first matchup? How many more of these questions will there be? None. No more questions. Only answers. Please read on to find all the answers to your playoff inquiries.
Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, Falcons -5.0)
We open the divisional round with the battle of the birds. Back in Week 6, the Seahawks defeated the the Falcons in Seattle, 26-24. Now, the rematch will be in Atlanta, as the Falcons look to avenge the loss. As I’ve noted in previous posts, Seattle has been egregiously bad on the road this season, especially the offense. Fortunately for the Seahawks, the Falcons are no defensive juggernaut, as they ranked 27th in the league in points allowed. However, this team is not built on defense. Atlanta is all offense, ranking first in the league in points and second in yards. Matt Ryan used his phenomenal, likely MVP-caliber season to re-establish himself as a top tier quarterback in the NFL. So, how did the Falcons improve so much from last year? Most of the key offensive pieces from the 2015 season went unchanged, which would indicate that it was the seemingly small changes that made the difference. New center Alex Mack has been awesome, helping the run game and improving Ryan’s pass protection. Additionally, the receivers not named Julio have been formidable, as Gabriel and Sanu are making plays and drawing attention away from Jones. Give a great quarterback like Matt Ryan all of these tools, and the offense is sure to succeed. The only questions is whether or not the Seahawks banged up defense can stop the potent Falcon offense.
In Week 6, it took a questionable no-call on a critical 4th down for Seattle to beat Atlanta. Still a win is a win, and the Seahawks had played a great game to even put themselves in position to win. As has been true for the last few seasons, the Seahawks have gone as far as their defense carried them this year. Even with Earl Thomas out for multiple games, the Seahawk defense was still able to play at an elite level during the regular season. They will need to be at their best to stop Ryan and the rest of the Atlanta offense. Seattle will have to put pressure on Ryan, Sherman will have to be lockdown on Julio, and the offense is going to have to score some points if they hope to even have a chance in this game. I expect an exciting game that could come down to one or two big plays.
Prediction: Rawls scores on a 75 yard rushing touchdown on Seattle’s first offensive possession. Ryan immediately responds, by leading Atlanta down the field on a touchdown drive of their own, to tie the game at 7. Things calm down, as the game is back and forth until the fourth quarter. Down by six with two minutes remaining, Wilson leads the Seahawks into Atlanta territory. On 4th and 6, Wilson overthrows Jimmy Graham. Graham wants a pass interference call after he was clearly tackled before the ball arrived. However, the throw is controversially ruled uncatchable. Falcons win, 27-21.
Houston Texans (9-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -16.0)
There are three great matchups this weekend that I am looking forward to watching. There is also this awful game. The Texans face the Patriots in New England in what will most likely be an unwatchable affair. Earlier this season, the Patriots defeated the Texans 27-0 with third stringer JACOBY BRISSETT at quarterback. Of course, that game was back in Week 3, so you must take it with a grain of salt. Both of these teams have changed plenty since that contest. Unfortunately for Houston, the main difference from that game will be that a guy named Brady will be at quarterback for New England. Assuming an anemic offensive performance from the Texans, Brady and the offense should expect to be set up with incredible field position all day, making their lives that much easier. The Patriots defense has been phenomenal this year, and I would be shocked if they were challenged at all by this woeful Texan offense. The only chance the Texans will have to score points will be through the ground game, which is exactly where the Patriot defense has excelled all season. It’s hard to see any way for the Texans to win this game...
However, if you look really hard for a reason to believe that there is any hope for Houston, you can point out that Gronkowski is out and Cushing is playing this time around. Also, Osweiler should be much more comfortable in the Houston system than he was in Week 3, when he was still learning the offense. Still, even a perfect performance by Osweiler may not be enough to defeat this overpowered New England team. Putting pressure on Brady will be crucial for the Texans. Clowney, Mercilus, and the rest of the front seven are going to have to re-enact last week’s dominant performance, in order to beat the Patriots. I guess they might have a chance…
Prediction: This game is awful. The Patriots strike first… and second… and third, on their way to a 24-3 halftime lead. Houston shows some life in the second half, scoring first, but it is all for naught, as New England cruises to victory behind Blount’s three rushing touchdowns. Patriots win, 38-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Sunday, 8:20 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -1.5)
Vegas predicts that this will be the closest game of the weekend, as the Chiefs are slight favorites to win at home against the surging Steelers. Pittsburgh has been literally unbeatable over the last eight games, and they will look to add a ninth in a row on Sunday. If the eight game winning streak wasn’t enough to make the Steelers confident, they already have an impressive early season thrashing of Kansas City on their resume, a game which they won at Heinz Field, 43-14. In that game, Roethlisberger finished with 300 yards and 5 TDs, and Bell contributed 178 yards on the ground en route to the rout. Roethlisberger and the Steeler offense won’t have to be quite that good if they hope to win in Kansas City this time around. However, Big Ben will need to play better than he did last week if he hopes to add another playoff victory to his career. Roethlisberger threw two interceptions last week and was inconsistent for most of the game. His stat line benefited mightily from the many yards after catch that Antonio Brown accumulated. Cutting down on turnovers will be key for Roethlisberger and the Steelers this weekend. Pittsburgh has the talent to win, as long as they don’t beat themselves.
The Chiefs have not been sensational this season, but they have continuously found ways to win. It would be hard to argue that they are not worthy of their 12-4 record, especially considering their undefeated divisional record in the AFC West. Alex Smith has been his usual self this year, playing mistake-free, solid football (though I did see him throw three red zone INTs this season). Put Smith next to one of the top ground games and defenses in the league, and you get a great Chiefs season. This is the usual formula for Kansas City, as the Chiefs have found ways to win games on ball security and takeaways alone. However, none of that matters now. The Chiefs have been consistently great in the regular season for the past four seasons without much postseason success. Actually, their postseason frailty has haunted them since since 1994, having gone 1-9 in the playoffs since then. Will this finally be the season where the Chiefs make it back to the AFC Championship game, a game they have not reached since 1993?
Prediction: Defense reigns supreme in the first quarter, as both teams can only muster field goals. In the second quarter, Antonio Brown and Spencer Ware both find the endzone, and at halftime the score is 13-13. Pittsburgh gains the advantage in the second half, and looks as though they will put the game away when they take a 26-16 fourth quarter lead. The Chiefs come back though, scoring a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining. Kansas City fails to recover the ensuing onside kick, and Le’Veon Bell is able to ice the game on the ground. Steelers win, 26-23.
Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Cowboys -4.5)
If the Cowboys had a choice of opponent, I would guess that they would prefer to face the Seahawks in the Divisional Round. However, they do not, so they are stuck with a tough game against the red hot Packers. The Packers have looked like the best team in the NFC over the last several weeks, and it will certainly be tough for the Cowboys to slow them down, even while playing in front of their home field crowd in Dallas. Prescott and Zeke are set to make their playoff debuts, but will they be able to step up on the big stage? The Packers have not had a very strong defense for most of the season, ranking second to last against the pass, and the Cowboys still have the best offensive line in the league. So, I expect Dak to have plenty of time to throw the ball and get comfortable, even in such a tense playoff atmosphere.
The Packers will look to capitalize on their clear advantage at quarterback. The least experienced quarterback in the NFL will be battling against one of the league’s best in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have basically given up on the running game this season, and it has not appeared to hinder the offense. However, Rodgers will most likely be without his favorite target, Jordy Nelson in this tough divisional round matchup. Even if Nelson plays, it will most likely be somewhat limited. Adams and Cobb will have to pick up the slack, and if last week is any indication, we know that they can. Green Bay will have to slow down Elliot if they hope to keep the game tight. In a close game, I would give the edge to the Packers, as Rodgers has a made a career of staying calm, cool, and collected in tough situations. With that in mind, keeping within one score of the Cowboys for the entire game should put the Packers in a strong position to win this one.
Prediction: The nerves are clearly visible for Dallas, as they stumble out to a 10-0 deficit, due in part to an early Prescott interception. The game remains close, as the Packers have a slim lead at halftime, 13-7. Rodgers and Prescott both come alive in the second half, trading touchdowns. As the end of the game looms closer, the Cowboys tie it up on a Dan Bailey 46-yard field goal, 27-27. With 1 minute left and no timeouts, Rodgers leads the Packers down the field, setting up Crosby for a game winning field goal attempt from 53 yards out. He nails it. Packers win, 30-27.
The Divisional Round of the playoffs is nearly upon us. Soon we will know which teams will be represented in the Conference Championships. I mean, I know it will be the Falcons, Patriots, Steelers, and Packers, but I guess we still have to go through the formality of actually playing the games. Enjoy Week 2 of the playoffs. I’ll be back to wrap it all up next week.
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