If you don’t like
spreadsheets or additional clicking, you can view the summarized version of how
I did below (playoff teams are in bold):
Quick Stats:
Well, this year was certainly a regression to
the mean. Only a year removed from my best predictions ever, I could not hold
form this season as my predictions were ultimately quite mediocre. Most of my
numbers were decent, as I was able to keep what I consider good predictions
(Within 1 game) and bad predictions (Off by more than 3 games) even at 12
apiece. However, I was only able to predict 5 of the 12 playoff teams. I made a
particularly bad mess of the NFC, failing to predict any of the four Division
winners.
The top seeds in the AFC and NFC both caught me
by surprise, as they were my worst predictions (each 7 games off). I have little
excuse for how badly I missed the Ravens, as all signs were pointing to a
likely breakout season for Lamar Jackson and co. However, I don’t feel as bad
about missing so badly on the Niners, considering the fact that they finished at
a paltry 4-12 in 2018.
Even with such a poor overall performance, I was
(barely) able to hold my edge over Vegas, hitting on 52% of my picks. That
being said, I’ll be the first to tell you that you aren’t going to make any
money by making just 52% of your bets against the House.
Just like last year, I
have also included my Average Differential yearly progression in the table
below. Over seven seasons of predictions, my combined Average Differential
across all seasons is 2.3. So, when I say that I regressed to the mean in 2019,
I really mean it!
Anyways… now that we
have the BORING statistics out of the way, let’s get to the nitty gritty, and
find out what really happened in each division. How did we end up where we are
now?
AFC West
Year two of Mahomes was
nearly as good as year one. The Chiefs were exceptionally dominant in a
relatively weak division, winning impressively on their way to a first round
Bye. Kansas City had a brief scare in Week 7 against the Broncos, when it
looked like Mahomes suffered a serious leg injury. However, it ended up only being a dislocated knee (these damn kids can bounce back from anything these
days. I remember when I was young…) that only forced him to miss two full
games. Mahomes’ injury coincided with a short slide for the Chiefs, where they
dropped two of four, setting up what appeared to be an important divisional game against the Raiders in Week 13. However, the Chiefs easily
brushed aside the overachieving Oakland side and never looked back, winning
their final six games en route to an easy Division Crown. Any fan that had
watched every Raider game up until Week 13 (hey, that’s me!) would have told
you that the Raiders had been obviously overachieving. Their wins had all been
nail-biters, and their losses had all been embarrassing blowouts. There was simply
no way they would compete with one of the best teams in the NFL, and that’s
exactly what happened. The Raiders ended up losing five of their last six games, leaving Oakland
with their tail between their legs.
Denver showed sparks of
brilliance towards the end of the season, winning 4 of their last 5. We’ll have
to wait until next year to find out if Drew Lock is the reason for their strong
finish to the season, as the rookie quarterback started all five of
those games. Whether or not Lock is the answer at quarterback will be critical
to Denver’s future. For the Chargers, this season offered more of the same in
the form of cruelly bad luck at every critical junction of every close game.
Los Angeles finished the season at 5-11, despite being outscored over the
entirety of the season by a mere eight points. While those numbers should
indicate promise for next year, this season was also one of the first where
Rivers looked truly bad. If this is the end of the Rivers era the Chargers may
be in for some difficult years ahead of them.
In summary, the AFC West
may be the division with the most promise in the NFL. The Chargers greatly
underperformed this season, and they should expect only an improvement next
year. The Raiders head to Vegas with arguably the most talented rookie class in
the NFL. For Denver, in spite of the fact that they still have major questions
at quarterback, the Broncos saw moderate success towards the end of the season. Finally, Kansas City has consistently been in the conversation as one of the best teams in football
for multiple years now, and they also have the most promising young star in the
NFL in Mahomes (I see you Lamar Jackson).
AFC North
Not really sure what I
was thinking when I predicted that Baltimore would only win seven games this
season. Last year with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens went 6-1. He
mimicked 2018’s success by finishing the season 13-2 as the starter, earning a
rest in Week 17 since Baltimore had already secured the top seed in the AFC.
Lamar played out of his mind all year, making me wish I were a Ravens fan.
Baltimore played with an aggression that was unmatched and unstoppable. 4th Down?
No problem. Give Lamar the ball in the RPO, and he will easily dissect the
defense for the couple of yards he needs. The kid is the smartest, most
athletic player on his team, and he gets to touch the ball on every play. The
Ravens look nearly unbeatable at the moment, making them obvious favorites to
win the Super Bowl, especially since they play in the relatively soft AFC.
Somehow the Steelers
strung together eight wins this season. So say what you want about Mike Tomlin,
but you can’t deny that he was able to avoid a losing season and nearly make
the playoffs with dopes like Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges behind Center. Over
in Cleveland, the Browns were satisfyingly overrated this year. Normally they
are a fun underdog story, so any success they achieve is entertaining. However,
after marginal offseason improvements that followed a season quarterbacked by a
mediocre-at-best talent, Cleveland suddenly became every pundit’s sneaky
favorite to make the playoffs and possibly more. Well, you know the rest. The
Titans flattened them in Week 1. OBJ was a non-factor all season. The defense
was disjointed at best. And they got embarrassed game after game, culminating
with a humiliating loss to the worst team in the league, the Bengals in Week
17. Speaking of which, Cincinnati was atrocious this season. Miami was the
odds-on favorite to secure the first overall draft pick. However, a combination
of Fitzmagic and Bengal incompetence easily thwarted that narrative. Now, the
Bengals must answer questions at every position on the team, with the most
difficult of those to come at quarterback.
AFC South
The AFC South was full
of intrigue this year. The Texans showed the most potential throughout the
season, but their inconsistency made them a difficult team to get a good read
on. Houston’s biggest supporters will point to impressive wins against Kansas
City and New England, while the doubters will raise questions about the 34-point loss to Baltimore, the close calls against Oakland and Indianapolis
(twice), and the shocking losses against Denver and Carolina. Right in their
wake, the Titans were nearly able to snatch the division from the Texans.
Unfortunately, two late season losses against Houston and New Orleans stopped
them short. Even considering those losses, Tennessee head into the postseason
as one of the hottest teams in the league. With Tannehill behind Center, the
Titans finished the season at 7-3, while their new signal-caller led the league
in quarterback rating at 117.5.
It seems like years ago
that Andrew Luck announced his retirement. However, it was only before this
season that Luck shocked a city, handing over the reigns of the Colts to Jacoby
Brissett. I was one of the many Indianapolis fatalists that said all hope was
lost for the Luck-less Colts. However, Brissett proved himself to be a
formidable option, as the Colts toughed out seven wins on the season. And
finally, at the bottom of the AFC South, the Jaguars proved to be a
work-in-progress. I was bullish on the Foles-led Jags. However, a broken left
Clavicle for their quarterback in Week 1 proved to be the beginning of a poor season in Jacksonville.
Of course, whether or not Foles would have been any more useful than Minshew is
up for debate. While Minshew-mania seems like a fun prospect, he may not be the
answer that the Jaguars are looking for at quarterback.
AFC East
The story of the AFC
East this season was the dominance of the New England Patriots defense,
particularly in the first half of the year. However, I, like many other pundits
pointed out the fact that New England started the season against a truly
impressive anomaly of offensive futility. The second half of the season did not
go as well for New England, as they fell to each of the other three eventual
Division Champions in the AFC, along with the MIAMI DOLPHINS IN FOXBOROUGH (in a game the
Patriots needed to win!), on their way to a disappointing 4-4 record over the second
half of the season. Of course, the Patriots
were not the only story of the division this season. The entire AFC East
benefited from getting a softball schedule that included games against the AFC
North and NFC East. Other than the Ravens, those two divisions were incredibly
weak this year. The Bills took advantage of the soft schedule, as they only
defeated one team that finished the season with an above .500 record, and that
team was the Titans (9-7) before they upgraded to Ryan Tannehill.
Not to be forgotten, both the Dolphins and Jets overachieved (though their expectations were admittedly low). Darnold was respectable on his way to leading the Jets to 7 wins. Meanwhile in Miami, Fitzpatrick continued to prove that he is the greatest journeyman quarterback of all-time. Fitzpatrick is maybe my favorite NFL player in the league. He has continued to find success in the bleakest of situations. And if you ask for my honest opinion (and maybe after a few drinks), I’ll tell you about how I think he is actually a more talented quarterback than Brady and that Brady just benefited from a great system, something that the true GOAT, Fitzpatrick never got a chance to play in. Fitzpatrick has the intelligence and arm strength of a true great, and if you really look at the numbers you’ll see tha...
NFC West
The NFC West was far and
away the most exciting division in the NFL this season. The 49ers were the last
unbeaten team in the league, and even so, the Seahawks were in contention for the Division Crown up until the final week of the season. The Rams cycled back and
forth between brilliant and downright awful over and over again. And the
Cardinals were incredibly entertaining to watch, led by one of the most
exciting players in the league, Kyler Murray.
San Francisco turned out
to be an incredible worst-to-first story. While this level of success was quite
surprising, you can’t say it was totally unexpected, considering the fact that
the Niners’ QB1 tore his ACL in Week 3 of what was supposed to be a promising
2018 season. In 2019, buoyed by young talent, a cool head at quarterback, and a
fearsome trio of running backs, the Niners dominated the NFC on their way to
the top seed. Meanwhile, Seattle remained close in the race for the West all
season long, falling 6 inches short of the crown, when Hollister was stopped on
the Goal Line in the final game of the regular season. While an eleven win
season seems fairly typical for the Seahawks during the Russell Wilson era,
this season’s successful campaign was anything but pretty. Seattle surprisingly
struggled at home, going 4-4 at CenturyLink Field where they have been
historically great. Also, while their record seems impressive, Seattle only had
a point differential of +7 over the course of the season, indicative of a
mediocre team at best.
While the Rams should
not move into full rebuild mode, this season will certainly be seen as a
disappointment for the defending NFC Champions. The optimist will point to the
fact that the division was exceptionally strong and that the Rams still showed
signs of their best selves during the season, particularly during their
impressive wins against the Saints and Seahawks. However, it is also hard to
ignore the absolute thrashing that this team endured at the hands of the
Buccaneers, Ravens, and Cowboys. And finally, even though the Cardinals were
only able to muster five wins, they should be able to stay positive during the
offseason, knowing that they played in the toughest division in the NFL. Murray
has got plenty of room to grow, and the tools are slowly developing around him
for potential success. If Arizona can make some improvements on the defensive
side of the ball in the Draft and Free Agency, they may be able to make some
noise in the competitive NFC West next season.
NFC North
The Pack is back. With
the departure of Mike McCarthy Green Bay returned to winning ways, as first
year Head Coach Matt LaFleur was clearly an upgrade on the sideline. Rodgers
quietly had a solid year, protecting the ball well with 26 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.
The run game was solid. And the defense was formidable. No single aspect of the
Packers team was particularly phenomenal throughout the year. However, as a
whole, the team managed to win games and ultimately they were able to hold off
the Vikings for the Division Crown. Minnesota had an oddly similar year to the
Packers. Just like Green Bay, no single part of the team was great, simply a
collective of solid play throughout the roster. Also similarly, their
quarterback Cousins was able to put together a solid but not flashy campaign,
throwing for 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Meanwhile in Chicago,
the quarterbacking play continued to be atrocious. The Bears keep trying to
force Trubisky to work, but he is simply not good enough to be a great or even
decent NFL quarterback. The Bears averaged a paltry 205 yards per game through
the air, on their way to being the 29th ranked scoring offense in the NFL. And
in Detroit, the Matt Patricia era continued to flounder, as the Lions were only
able to put together three wins this year. Detroit was certainly better than
their record indicates, but even a few more wins would not have made for a
respectable season.
NFC South
I don’t know why I have
an aversion to picking the Saints to win this division, but for whatever reason
I do. I guess I’m just expecting Brees to finally fall off his golden cliff.
However, he’s still here, playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the
league. In my defense, I didn’t predict that the Saints would be bad (I had
them making the playoffs at 11-5); however, maybe I just think too highly of
the rest of this division. It’s hard not to have high expectations for the NFC
South when you consider the fact that the division contains three former MVPs
(and Jameis Winston!). But maybe I’m more wrong about the Saints than I even
realize… maybe the real explanation for their continued success is that they
don’t even need Brees to be good! With Bridgewater as the starter this season New Orleans
went 5-0! Of course, Bridgewater is no typical backup schlub. Before a
catastrophic knee injury he was a great starter in Minnesota, but I digress.
Whatever the reason, the Saints were once again great this year, as they were
the first team in the NFL to claim their division title, all the way back in
Week 13. It goes without saying that part of the reason they clinched so early
was because of the rest of NFC South was so atrocious.
The Falcons continued to
flounder around in mediocrity, as Matt Ryan continued to search for his once
great form that took the Falcons to Super Bowl LI. In Ryan’s defense, the
offense has been passable; however, Atlanta’s defense continues to make winning
rather difficult for the Falcons. Somehow finishing at 7-9 as well, the highly
erratic Buccaneers managed to string together a mediocre season. Winston
continues to define “feast or famine,” as his 33 touchdowns and 30
interceptions were a truly astounding statistical anomaly. THIRTY
INTERCEPTIONS. For the fifth straight year, Winston has thrown double digit
picks. At this rate Winston seems like a true contender to pass Brett Favre’s "prestigious" career interception mark, as Tampa Bay have shown themselves unwilling to move
on from their failed Winston experiment.
And finally, at the
bottom of the division were the hapless Panthers. McCaffrey defines the modern
NFL workhorse, but Carolina fans must be concerned about wasting McCaffrey’s
prime during these losing years in Carolina. The Panthers finally did the smart
thing and benched their oft-injured quarterback for the season. Unfortunately,
the replacement option, Kyle Allen was atrocious. I still believe that Newton
can be a great NFL quarterback. The only question is whether or not his time in
Carolina has come to an end.
NFC East
The NFC East continued
to be absolute trash this year. The Eagles were able to rise to the top of said
trash heap, but it wasn’t pretty. Philadelphia found ways to lose to Atlanta,
Detroit, and Miami this season. And even as things continued to go badly,
Philadelphia found themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt at 5-7 after
Week 13. In defense of the Eagles, they did what they had to do at the end of the season to make the playoffs, winning all
four of their final games (though it must be said that three of those games were
against the Giants, Redskins, and Giants). Meanwhile, Dallas trudged through
another mediocre season, once again disappointing their overly optimistic fans.
The Cowboys flopped against all of their toughest opponents, as their only win
against a playoff team came against the Eagles, who they split the season
series with. When it came down to it, Dak, Zeke, and the rest of the team simply
did not have what it took to win the big games.
The Giants continued to
be a non-factor in the NFC East. It seems as though the Manning era may finally
be over in New York. Daniel Jones has shown himself to be capable, but there is
plenty of reason for skepticism with the young signal-caller. Whether or not
this is finally the end for Eli, I will continue to be baffled by how his
mediocre career lasted for so long. One step below the Giants, the Redskins
maintained their stranglehold on the title of “Most Dysfunctional Franchise in
the League.” Whether or not Dwayne Haskins is any good, no quarterback will
ever succeed in Washington. Incompetence starts at the top for that franchise.
Until Dan Snyder sells the team, the Redskins will never be good.
So, there you have it.
For 20 teams, the season is over. For 11 teams, their season will end in
heartbreak. For one team, glory glory glory. With the beginning of the Wild
Card Round of the playoffs just hours away, the final story of the NFL season
is about to begin. I’ll have my predictions for the first round of the playoffs
ready before the games start on Saturday (hopefully). I’m running out of time
fast... Stay tuned!
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