Thursday, January 9, 2020

Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round 2020


And now the top four teams enter the fold. On the NFC side of the bracket, the best of the NFC North will battle the best of the NFC West. On the AFC side of things, the top two seeds in the entire AFC will play host to the top two teams from the AFC South. While the teams and divisions that are represented are unique, I still find myself asking some of the same questions as I do every year during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Will the Bye Week have the top four teams rested or rusty? Which of the home teams is most vulnerable to an upset? Will elite defense or elite quarterback play rule the weekend? So many questions… but nothing to fear! I have four simple answers to your many lingering questions. 


Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET (Current Line, 49ers -7)
How long can the six seeds keep rolling through the playoffs? I’m sure any Vikings fan will hate to hear this, but the last six seed to win the Super Bowl was the Green Bay Packers in 2010. Like I’ve said previously, this Minnesota team is no ordinary six seed. If not for an unusually strong NFC, the Vikings may have been just starting their playoffs now coming off a first round Bye. Instead, they travel to the Bay Area to take on the top seeded 49ers. San Francisco is built on elite defense, but that doesn’t mean their offense is anything to scoff at. San Francisco was second in the league in rushing yards, thanks to the dynamic trio of Mostert, Coleman, and Breida. Behind Center, Garoppolo has been the perfect game manager for this great team. Jimmy G has yet to prove himself from a statistical standpoint, but I doubt he cares about that. The 49er quarterback continues to have an unreal start to his NFL career, winning 21 of his first 26 professional starts. 

If there is any hope for the Vikings, it will be on the ground. Cook has been impressive for Minnesota all year, and while San Francisco’s defense is great, they were ranked 17th against the run during the regular season. Protecting the ball will be key for both teams. However, if the Niners get out to an early lead, it may end up being a runaway. San Francisco are one of the best at protecting a lead, and Cousins and the offense were not exactly designed to make big comebacks. 
Prediction: On the first snap of the game, Mostert fumbles the ball away. Cousins immediately hits Thielen for a touchdown on the ensuing drive, as Minnesota gets off to an early lead. Things settle down after that, as neither team is able to take command on offense. Minnesota stretches the lead to 10 before the Niners get on the board with a field goal of their own. With 1:30 left to go in the half, Cousins throws a pick-six. At halftime, the score is knotted at 10. The Niners score the next 13 points, as they take command of the game. The lead holds until late in the fourth quarter. With 3:00 left, Cousins leads the Vikings down the field to cut the lead to 6. Minnesota then recovers the ensuing onside kick, setting up a wild finish. Cousins leads Minnesota down to the 15 yard line before a strip sack by Nick Bosa ends the game. Niners win, 23-17. 


Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET (Current Line, Ravens -9.5)
Watch out for these Titans! They are a feisty group. I love Tennessee as a potential upset pick, as I believe that they are much better than their 9-7 record would indicate. However, Baltimore is clear and away the best team in the NFL, so predicting anything other than a dominant Baltimore performance would be bold. Lamar was unreal this year, accounting for 43 total touchdowns. He has the accuracy of a truly elite starting quarterback and the athleticism of the best running backs in the league. In just two seasons of NFL play, Jackson may already have cemented himself as the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time. However, Baltimore is not all offense (though they did rank first in points and second in yards during the regular season). The Ravens also ranked third in points and fourth in scoring on defense. This team is the whole package. The Titans are going to have their hands full. 

Tennessee must know that this team is on a whole different level than the Patriots. If Tannehill fails to crack 100 yards passing again, the Titans will probably lose by 40. Against Baltimore, you have to make every possession count, as the Ravens are a threat to score a touchdown whenever they touch the ball. If the Titans hope to win, their best chance at victory may be simply limiting how long the Ravens offense is on the field. If Derrick Henry can help the Titans dominate Time of Possession, there may just be hope for these overachievers. 
Prediction: Baltimore scores touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, as they sprint out to a 21-0 lead. The Titans are able to score just before halftime, but Baltimore is in complete control with a commanding 21-7 lead at the break. In the second half Lamar accounts for three more scores before he is taken out of the game early in the fourth quarter. The Titans score in garbage time, but it is far too late to matter. The Ravens roll in an absolute rout, 45-14. 


Houston Texans (10-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET (Current Line, Chiefs -9.5)
In a rematch of their Week 6 game, the Texans and Chiefs will once again square off at Arrowhead. Last time, Houston upset Kansas City 31-24 in a game with plenty of offensive fireworks. Both quarterbacks played aggressively, leading to a healthy dose of turnovers and exciting plays. Hopefully we get the same in this one, as Mahomes is not one to shy away from chucking the ball deep and Watson is not one to get sacked when he is wrapped up by multiple defenders. So, will this game be all offense and no defense? I sure hope so! Neither defense has been particularly great this year. In fact, Houston has been surprisingly bad, allowing the fifth most yards per game of any defense in the league. As a neutral fan, I am totally fine with all of this. More offense please!
Prediction: Mahomes is ripping deep balls from the beginning, hitting Hill and Hardman for chunk plays from the onset. At the end of the first quarter, Kansas City leads 17-3. The dominance continues into the second quarter, as Mahomes throws for a total of four touchdowns and 312 yards in the first half alone. Kansas City’s lead is as large as 28 before the final possession of the first half, when Watson finds Hopkins for a 35-yard scoring toss. At the break, the Chiefs are in command, 31-10. However, things begin to turn in the third quarter. Houston scores the next 14 points, and suddenly the game is close. Heading into the fourth quarter, Kansas City’s lead has been cut to 10. Watson is in full hero mode now, as he finds Darren Fells for a touchdown with just under six minutes to go, cutting Kansas City's once insurmountable lead to a mere three points. Unfortunately, it would be the last time the Texans touched the ball, as the Chiefs are able to slowly bleed away the remaining time on the clock, holding off the Texans for a nervy 34-31 victory. 


Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET (Current Line, Packers -4.5)
This is a fairly intriguing matchup. While I think both teams are good, I also think they are both a bit overrated. Even with Wilson at his best, Seattle struggled to win convincingly all year. Against the Wentz-less Eagles in the Wild Card Round, the Seahawks were only able to put the game away for good late in the fourth quarter. The Packers have a similar story. While the 13-3 record looks good, there were plenty of concerning results throughout the season. Green Bay was barely able to sneak by the pitiful Lions during both matchups against Detroit. They got throttled by the Niners and CHARGERS. And they also had close calls with the Bears (twice) and Redskins. 

So, are either of these teams for real? I guess you could argue that each team has the clutch quarterback needed to win the close ones, but that just seems like a convenient excuse for luck. With two prolific quarterbacks going head-to-head, I guess we are destined for a thrilling game that comes down to the final possession. The only question is, which team will have the ball last?
Prediction: The game gets off to a slow start, as neither offense seems to have any rhythm. It’s not until the final two minutes of the first half that the first touchdown is scored, when Rodgers hits Davante Adams for a glorious back-of-the-end zone, tip-toe catch. As the teams head into the locker room, the Packers hold a slim lead, 10-9. The second half starts with a bang, as Rodgers leads the Packers on another touchdown drive. However, Wilson immediately answers with a touchdown drive of his own. Unfortunately, Seattle goes for two and fails to convert. With the Packers up 17-15, Aaron Jones breaks free for a long touchdown run early in the fourth quarter, seemingly sealing the game. However, Wilson works his magic late in the game, bringing Seattle within two points again. A huge defensive stand gives Wilson the ball back with 1:50 on the clock and no timeouts. Seattle moves the ball into Green Bay territory, inching closer to field goal range. However, two huge sacks put Seattle in 4th and 30 with less than a minute to go. A desperation heave hits the turf, as the Packers escape 24-22.  


And with that, you no longer need to watch the games this weekend since you already know what will happen. So put your newfound free time to good use! Go on a hike somewhere new. Discover a new local restaurant or brewery. Or maybe just catch up on some sleep. The world is your oyster! Or… just watch the games anyways! There’s no better excuse to drink a few beers during the middle (or start) of the day than playoff football. Enjoy the weekend! I'll be back to wrap it all up next week.

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