And now the top four
teams enter the fold. On the NFC side of the bracket, the best of the NFC North
will battle the best of the NFC West. On the AFC side of things, the top two
seeds in the entire AFC will play host to the top two teams from the AFC South.
While the teams and divisions that are represented are unique, I still find
myself asking some of the same questions as I do every year during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Will
the Bye Week have the top four teams rested or rusty? Which of the home teams
is most vulnerable to an upset? Will elite defense or elite quarterback play
rule the weekend? So many questions… but nothing to fear! I have four simple answers to your many lingering questions.
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
@ San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET
(Current Line, 49ers -7)
How long can the six
seeds keep rolling through the playoffs? I’m sure any Vikings fan will hate to
hear this, but the last six seed to win the Super Bowl was the Green Bay Packers
in 2010. Like I’ve said previously, this Minnesota team is no ordinary six
seed. If not for an unusually strong NFC, the Vikings may have been just
starting their playoffs now coming off a first round Bye. Instead, they travel to the Bay Area to take on
the top seeded 49ers. San Francisco is built on elite defense, but that doesn’t
mean their offense is anything to scoff at. San Francisco was second in the
league in rushing yards, thanks to the dynamic trio of Mostert, Coleman, and
Breida. Behind Center, Garoppolo has been the perfect game manager for this
great team. Jimmy G has yet to prove himself from a statistical standpoint, but
I doubt he cares about that. The 49er quarterback continues to have an unreal
start to his NFL career, winning 21 of his first 26 professional starts.
If there is any hope for
the Vikings, it will be on the ground. Cook has been impressive for Minnesota
all year, and while San Francisco’s defense is great, they were ranked 17th
against the run during the regular season. Protecting the ball will be key for
both teams. However, if the Niners get out to an early lead, it may end up
being a runaway. San Francisco are one of the best at protecting a lead, and Cousins and the offense were not exactly designed to make big comebacks.
Prediction: On the first
snap of the game, Mostert fumbles the ball away. Cousins immediately hits
Thielen for a touchdown on the ensuing drive, as Minnesota gets off to an early
lead. Things settle down after that, as neither team is able to take command on
offense. Minnesota stretches the lead to 10 before the Niners get on the board
with a field goal of their own. With 1:30 left to go in the half, Cousins
throws a pick-six. At halftime, the score is knotted at 10. The Niners score
the next 13 points, as they take command of the game. The lead holds until late in the fourth quarter. With 3:00 left, Cousins leads the Vikings down the field to cut the lead to 6. Minnesota then recovers the ensuing onside kick, setting up a wild
finish. Cousins leads Minnesota down to the 15 yard line before a strip sack by
Nick Bosa ends the game. Niners win, 23-17.
Tennessee Titans (9-7) @
Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
(Current Line, Ravens -9.5)
Watch out for these
Titans! They are a feisty group. I love Tennessee as a potential upset pick, as
I believe that they are much better than their 9-7 record would indicate.
However, Baltimore is clear and away the best team in the NFL, so predicting anything other than a dominant Baltimore performance would be bold. Lamar was unreal
this year, accounting for 43 total touchdowns. He has the accuracy of a truly
elite starting quarterback and the athleticism of the best running backs in the
league. In just two seasons of NFL play, Jackson may already have cemented
himself as the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time. However, Baltimore
is not all offense (though they did rank first in points and second in yards
during the regular season). The Ravens also ranked third in points and fourth
in scoring on defense. This team is the whole package. The Titans are going to
have their hands full.
Tennessee must know that
this team is on a whole different level than the Patriots. If Tannehill fails
to crack 100 yards passing again, the Titans will probably lose by 40. Against
Baltimore, you have to make every possession count, as the Ravens are a threat to
score a touchdown whenever they touch the ball. If the Titans hope to win, their best chance at
victory may be simply limiting how long the Ravens offense is on the field. If
Derrick Henry can help the Titans dominate Time of Possession, there may just
be hope for these overachievers.
Prediction: Baltimore
scores touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, as they sprint out
to a 21-0 lead. The Titans are able to score just before halftime, but
Baltimore is in complete control with a commanding 21-7 lead at the break. In the second half Lamar
accounts for three more scores before he is taken out of the game early in the
fourth quarter. The Titans score in garbage time, but it is far too late to
matter. The Ravens roll in an absolute rout, 45-14.
Houston Texans (10-6) @
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET
(Current Line, Chiefs -9.5)
In a rematch of their
Week 6 game, the Texans and Chiefs will once again square off at Arrowhead.
Last time, Houston upset Kansas City 31-24 in a game with plenty of offensive
fireworks. Both quarterbacks played aggressively, leading to a healthy dose of
turnovers and exciting plays. Hopefully we get the same in this one, as Mahomes
is not one to shy away from chucking the ball deep and Watson is not one to get
sacked when he is wrapped up by multiple defenders. So, will this game be all
offense and no defense? I sure hope so! Neither defense has been particularly
great this year. In fact, Houston has been surprisingly bad, allowing the fifth
most yards per game of any defense in the league. As a neutral fan, I am totally fine with all of this. More offense please!
Prediction: Mahomes is
ripping deep balls from the beginning, hitting Hill and Hardman for chunk
plays from the onset. At the end of the first quarter, Kansas City leads 17-3. The dominance
continues into the second quarter, as Mahomes throws for a total of four
touchdowns and 312 yards in the first half alone. Kansas City’s lead is as
large as 28 before the final possession of the first half, when Watson finds
Hopkins for a 35-yard scoring toss. At the break, the Chiefs are in command,
31-10. However, things begin to turn in the third quarter. Houston scores the
next 14 points, and suddenly the game is close. Heading into the fourth
quarter, Kansas City’s lead has been cut to 10. Watson is in full hero mode
now, as he finds Darren Fells for a touchdown with just under six minutes to
go, cutting Kansas City's once insurmountable lead to a mere three points. Unfortunately,
it would be the last time the Texans touched the ball, as the Chiefs are able to
slowly bleed away the remaining time on the clock, holding off the Texans for a
nervy 34-31 victory.
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
@ Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 PM ET
(Current Line, Packers -4.5)
This is a fairly intriguing
matchup. While I think both teams are good, I also think they are both a bit
overrated. Even with Wilson at his best, Seattle struggled to win convincingly
all year. Against the Wentz-less Eagles in the Wild Card Round, the
Seahawks were only able to put the game away for good late in the fourth
quarter. The Packers have a similar story. While the 13-3 record looks good,
there were plenty of concerning results throughout the season. Green Bay was
barely able to sneak by the pitiful Lions during both matchups against Detroit. They got
throttled by the Niners and CHARGERS. And they also had close calls with the
Bears (twice) and Redskins.
So, are either of these
teams for real? I guess you could argue that each team has the clutch quarterback needed to win the close ones, but that just seems like a convenient excuse for luck. With two prolific quarterbacks going head-to-head, I guess we are destined for a thrilling game that comes down to the
final possession. The only question is, which team will have the ball
last?
Prediction: The game
gets off to a slow start, as neither offense seems to have any rhythm. It’s not
until the final two minutes of the first half that the first touchdown is
scored, when Rodgers hits Davante Adams for a glorious back-of-the-end zone,
tip-toe catch. As the teams head into the locker room, the Packers hold a
slim lead, 10-9. The second half starts with a bang, as Rodgers leads the
Packers on another touchdown drive. However, Wilson immediately answers with a
touchdown drive of his own. Unfortunately, Seattle goes for two and fails to
convert. With the Packers up 17-15, Aaron Jones breaks free for a long touchdown run early in the
fourth quarter, seemingly sealing the game. However, Wilson works his magic
late in the game, bringing Seattle within two points again. A huge
defensive stand gives Wilson the ball back with 1:50 on the clock and no
timeouts. Seattle moves the ball into Green Bay territory, inching closer to field goal range. However, two huge sacks put
Seattle in 4th and 30 with less than a minute to go. A desperation heave hits the turf, as the Packers escape
24-22.
And with that, you no
longer need to watch the games this weekend since you already know what will
happen. So put your newfound free time to good use! Go on a hike somewhere
new. Discover a new local restaurant or brewery. Or maybe just catch up on some
sleep. The world is your oyster! Or… just watch the games anyways! There’s no
better excuse to drink a few beers during the middle (or start) of the day than
playoff football. Enjoy the weekend! I'll be back to wrap it all up next week.
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