What a wild weekend of
football! In the end we only saw one major upset, but it was the biggest
possible upset of them all. San Francisco’s defense throttled the Minnesota
offense until it was no more. Tennessee stunned Baltimore, holding them to a
shocking 12 points. Kansas City trailed by 24 points before eventually winning
by 20. And Green Bay was barely able to hold on, thwarting Russell’s late game
magic. When all the dust settled, I ended up 3-1 straight up and 0-4 ATS (lol).
It was a shockingly bad weekend for my predictions, bringing my totals to 5-3
straight up and 2-6 ATS. With such an abysmal record, there aren’t even enough
playoff games left to get my ATS record up to .500… Oh well! Fortunately, this
is only a recap, so hopefully you can at least trust that this portion of my
blog is accurate (please let me know if there are any mistakes).
San Francisco 49ers
(13-3) defeat Minnesota Vikings (10-6), 27-10
Smothering. San
Francisco’s defense was firing on all cylinders in this one. The pass coverage
was great. The pass rush was phenomenal. And Minnesota’s vaunted running game
was non-existent, though that can partly be attributed to the fact that they
were playing from behind for nearly the entirety of the game. The Vikings only
managed 21 yards on 10 carries, adding to their putrid 147 yards of total
offense. The total yards would have looked a bit more respectable had the
Vikings not taken 46 yards of losses on six San Francisco sacks.
I’m ashamed to admit
that I thought this game might be close. The Niners dominated every facet of
this game. Obviously the defense was great, but the offense was steadily
dominant as well. With 186 yards on the ground, Coleman and the rest of the
running backs controlled the tempo, giving Minnesota few chances to score. San
Francisco out-snapped Minnesota 68-45. Every Vikings drive seemed like a
struggle. Every 49ers drive felt like a confident march. These teams were not
playing on the same level on Saturday, and the better team easily moved onto
the NFC Title game. No heroics were needed from the Niners, just a steady dose
of dominance. There isn’t really anything to say beyond that.
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
defeat Baltimore Ravens (14-2), 28-12
I’m gonna have to quote
myself on this one:
“If Tannehill fails to crack 100 yards passing again, the Titans will probably lose by 40.”
I’ll just file that
statement under “100% Inaccurate.” Even though they were going up against the
most potent offense in the NFL, Tannehill needed just 88 yards on only seven
completions to defeat the Baltimore Ravens. The game was an incredible
display of what can happen when you don’t get a single break. Baltimore failed
to convert both of their critical 4th and 1s, Lamar had a couple of
uncharacteristic turnovers (including an early interception off a bad drop),
and the Titans converted each of their three red zone trips into touchdowns.
Each event can be explained as an unexpected but very possible anomaly.
However, when they all come together at once, the result is an epically unexpected
result.
Focusing on the 4th
downs, where Baltimore went 0 for 4 (after going 17 for 24 during the regular
season), I question the specific calls, rather than the decisions to attempt
these conversions. In retrospect, it is easy to say that the play calls were
questionable. However, it seemed odd to keep each critical 4th down play so
one-dimensional. In my opinion the RPO is really the perfect 4th down option,
allowing a dynamic quarterback like Jackson to make the split-second decision
needed to get the single yard ahead of him. Instead, the Ravens tried for both
of their early 4th and 1 conversions on two designed quarterback runs that
ended up not being even close to getting the necessary yard.
For Tennessee, it was a
game of “bend but don’t break” football, as they were outgained 530-300 yards.
They frustrated Baltimore with a heavy dose of their unstoppable force, Derrick
Henry. They made big plays when they needed them, like Tannehill’s 45 yard
touchdown pass to Kalif Raymond (a play that accounted for over half of
Tannehill’s total passing yards). And they unleashed a sweet trick play at a
critical moment of the game (Derrick Henry jump pass!). While I still believe
that this game was somewhat of a fluke, I also think that the Titans were
underestimated heading into this one. Will they continue to be underestimated
when they head to Kansas City for a rematch with the Chiefs? I assume not,
especially considering the fact that they have already beaten the Chiefs this season, back in Week 10.
Kansas City Chiefs
(12-4) defeat Houston Texans (10-6), 51-31
What a game. What a
wild, weird game. The Texans were up by 24. Twenty-Four! And then, in a flash,
they were losing. In a second flash, they were outscored by 44 points over the
final three quarters of the game. While all this seemed a bit incomprehensible
as it unfolded in real time, you could point to the fact that Houston’s defense
was very bad this season and Kansas City’s offense has already shown themselves
capable of scoring four touchdowns in a single quarter (I may have been at the
game where they did it against the Raiders in Oakland…). So, was this type of
bonkers game always a possibility? Sure. Was it expected? No.
Maybe the only
surprising part of it all was Houston’s hot start. The scoring was good, but
they were propelled by some great luck on defense. Two drops on what should
have been easy catches ended two early drives in the first quarter for Kansas
City. A blocked punt was returned for a score by Lonnie Johnson. And an
uncharacteristic muffed punt by Tyreek Hill led to another quick touchdown for
Houston. It happened fast, but the Chiefs were well-equipped to respond. A few
lucky bounces went their way, and suddenly the onslaught was on. Kansas City
was 9.5 point favorites. So, against the spread, the Texans were effectively up
by 33.5 points in the first quarter. I obviously thought I had that one in the
bag, but as you know, the Chiefs ended up covering by 10.5 points. Wild.
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
defeat Seattle Seahawks (11-5), 28-23
In every other game, my
pick against the spread was way off. At least this one was close, as Green Bay
only covered by a half point. Had Seattle converted their 2-point conversion in
the 4th quarter, I would have at least something to show for this weekend
of predictions. That being said, Green Bay was by far the superior team in this
one. Their defense stifled Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense in the first
half, and the Green Bay offense took advantage of their opportunities on their
way to an early 21-3 lead. Maybe the lack of a serviceable running back was
finally catching up to the Seahawks, as Lynch and Homer combined for 39 measly
yards on 15 carries. Wilson was forced to will his team to victory, and for a
moment it looked like he might just do that in the second half.
The Seahawks offense was
nearly unstoppable in the second two quarters. Unfortunately, they only
possessed the ball four times. Seattle scored a touchdown on each of their
first three possessions of the second half. However, that wasn’t enough. Green
Bay’s defense came up with the single stop they needed, the Seahawks punted,
and Aaron Rodgers did the rest, as he converted multiple first downs to put the
game away. It may seem harsh, but Seattle’s drives may have simply taken too
long in the second half. Down by 18 points, it would have behooved them to play
with a little more urgency. Instead, drives of 5:16, 6:30, and 4:28 left them
with only a single opportunity to complete the comeback. They failed, and now
Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are headed back to the NFC title game.
All four remaining teams
are a mere two wins away from capturing the ultimate prize. So, who will it be?
Who will represent each Conference in the biggest sporting event of the year?
Will San Francisco continue their dominance, as they try to cap off an
incredible worst-to-first season? Will the upstart Titans continue their
meteoric ascension through the playoffs? Will Mahomes grab his first Super Bowl
in a career that has the potential to see many more? Or will Rodgers finally
grab that elusive second Lombardi Trophy? You’ll just have to wait until my
Conference Championship predictions are released to find out. Stay tuned!
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