2017 Regular Season Recap

For the fourth season in a row, I made all the right predictions. However, once again, the wrong teams won some games, based on unpredictable events, which would have been impossible for me to expect. In a vacuum I obviously would have been able to predict every team’s record perfectly. Unfortunately, we live in a flawed world, so I must suffer. Let’s take a look back at 17 weeks of flawed football to find out how we ended up with this hodgepodge of NFL teams in the playoffs.

As I always do, I have placed my predictions next to the actual results from the NFL season. I enjoy doing this because it allows for complete transparency. Most professional NFL analysts have the luxury of an audience with short memories, which allows them to make predictions without actually being held accountable for what they said. Most will hyperfocus on a couple of predictions that they got correct, rather than doing a proper statistical analysis of how they actually performed. I, on the other hand, am happy to provide my readers with full transparency.

This year, I added an additional analysis. I analyzed how my picks would have done, had I bet on all of them, based on the lines set by OddsShark¹ on September 6th (1 day before the season started). Fortunately, I did well in this aspect, getting 18 out of 31 picks correct (58%).

If you would like to see the full analysis of my predictions, you can follow this link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TySuIzivPBiNBoKaM316zehCjNLsD83YiHsuj3uH17w/edit?usp=sharing

If you don’t like spreadsheets or additional clicking, you can view the summarized version of how I did below (playoff teams are in bold):

 

Quick Stats:

Average Differential Between Predicted and Actual	2.7
Correct Predictions	5
Predictions Within 1 Game	11
Predictions Off by 3 or More Games	15
Worst Prediction	Giants (Prediction: 10-6, Actual: 3-13)
Playoff Teams	6/12
Division Winners	3/8
Most Accurately Predicted Division	AFC North (Off by 7 games)
Least Accurately Predicted Division	NFC East (Off by 15 games)
Brosh vs. Vegas	18 Correct out of 31 Picks (1 Push) = 58% Correct

Now that we have the BORING statistics out of the way, let’s get to the nitty gritty, and find out what really happened in each division. How the hell did we end up where we are now?

AFC West

As I predicted, the Chiefs repeated as AFC West champs. While I couldn’t have predicted how up and down their season would be, I was able to pick them out as the best in the West. Smith went from game manager to MVP-candidate and back to game manager, all in the span of about 6 weeks. Just like the perception of Smith, the season was up and down for the Chiefs. Kansas City won their first five games, then lost 6 of 7, which included embarrassing losses to all of the pitiful New York based teams (Bills, Jets, and Giants). Fortunately for Chiefs fans, they were able to rebound with four straight wins to close the season, escaping from what would have been a historically impressive collapse.

As for the rest of the division, I was able to predict the mild success of the Chargers somewhat accurately. Their season was a mirror image of the Chiefs, as they lost their first four games, before rebounding to win 9 of their last 12. Unfortunately, the strong close to the season was not enough to propel Los Angeles into the playoffs. The Raiders were terribly disappointing this season. Oakland won a lot of close games last season, so it was expected that their record would regress. However, the Raiders did not just regress, they took a full two steps backwards, as they were blown out in most of their losses this season, consistently losing by two or more scores. Only four of Oakland’s ten losses were by a single score. Finally, at the bottom of the heap sat the Denver Broncos. Denver was clearly the worst team in the division all season. They had difficulty choosing a starting quarterback, and the defense has not been able to return to elite form since their 2016 Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback must be addressed in the offseason if the Broncos hope to return to winning ways. I wonder if John Elway can entice another great quarterback to move to Denver.

AFC North

The AFC North is generally the most predictable division of the bunch. The Steelers usually win it. The Bengals and/or Ravens sometimes challenge Pittsburgh for the top spot. And Cleveland is always horrible. Once again, this is what unfolded in the North. The Steelers earned a first round bye in the playoffs, comfortably winning the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Ravens and Bengals flirted with a wild card berth for most of the season. While Cincinnati had a fairly disappointing season thanks mostly to an unbelievably horrid offense (is Andy Dalton good at all?), the Ravens were able to stay relevant until the final week of the regular season. Of course, the Ravens inexplicably lost to the Bengals in Baltimore in Week 17, which eliminated the Ravens from playoff contention.

And then there is Cleveland. At this point, what else can you expect? The Browns became the second team in NFL history to go 0-16 in a season, joining the infamous 2008 Detroit Lions. To Cleveland’s credit, they stuck with their QB and head coach throughout the entire season. In defense of Kizer, he had nothing to work with. Not in defense of Kizer, he was unable to make anything of his first 15 NFL games. It seems as though the Browns will stick with Hue Jackson for at least one more season, which I think is the right call. A franchise needs consistency to succeed. Still, how long is the ownership team willing to wait for the Browns to start winning games? I guess we’ll have to wait until next season to find out.

AFC South

Somehow, the AFC South put two teams in the playoffs this season. Jacksonville is obviously deserving of this spot, as they had the second best defense in the league all season (along with the 5th highest scoring offense). Even with perennial mediocre quarterback Blake Bortles, this team was able to succeed. Bortles did his best to take advantage of a plethora of young talent at wide receiver, and Fournette did well to create a respectable running game for the Jaguars. Ultimately, this led to a successful, playoff-bound season for the Jaguars. One spot below Jacksonville, Tennessee put together a respectable season, finishing at 9-7. Of course, getting to play four games against the Colts and Texans certainly helped their record (admittedly, one of those Texans games was before Watson got hurt). Still, the Titans were able to finish with an above .500 record in the pitiful AFC, even though they finished the season with a negative point differential. It will be interesting to see how Mariota performs on the big stage.

Down in the cellar of the AFC, the Colts and Texans were consistently horrible this season. Both teams were perfect examples of what total incompetence at quarterback can do to a team. Tom Savage and Jacoby Brissett were both awful, and their teams suffered for it. Unfortunately for both teams, there were simply no other options in free agency. I mean, quarterbacks who have led teams to NFC championships with a career TD to INT ratio greater than 2 (or 72:30) are never just readily available on the free agent market. I mean, how many idiotic franchises with quarterback issues would there have to be to leave a perfectly viable quarterback option like that in free agency? Anyways, since no quarterback like that existed all season, both teams were forced to suffer through a horrid year. Fortunately for both of these teams, the impending return of Luck and Watson should provide a significant boost to their respective offenses (unless Indianapolis chooses to continue ignoring their glaring weaknesses at offensive line). For that reason, the future is not too bleak for any AFC South team.

AFC East

I did it! I brilliantly predicted that the Patriots would easily win the AFC East! Wow, I’m good at this. As everyone expected, New England was able to grab another AFC East crown, while the rest of the division did their best to start planning for the future. The Patriots started the season with a blowout loss to the Chiefs, which seemed ominous at the time. However, this proved to be nothing more than a minor blip on the radar, as Belichick, Brady, and the Patriots cruised to a first place finish in the AFC, securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs

Even though all three other AFC East teams appeared to be restructuring their rosters this season, the hapless Bills found a way into the playoffs. The Bills success was more of a testament to how bad the AFC was this year than anything else. The Bills, a team that at the start of the season had no intention of trying to win games in 2017, made the playoffs. The Bills, a team that started Nathan Peterman for one half of a football game before mercifully pulling him from a 54-24 defeat against the Chargers in Week 11, made the playoffs. The Bills, a team that finished with a -57 point differential this season, made the playoffs. Yes, the Bills, for the first time since 1999, will play in a playoff game. I’m sure no one in Buffalo even cares that this is one of the worst teams to play a meaningful game in January in NFL history. The Bills are back! Now, can they end their 23 year playoff victory drought?

The Dolphins season went almost exactly as expected. An apathetic Jay Cutler was unable to lift the perennially mediocre Dolphins into relevancy. Maybe it’s time for Cutler to fade off into the sunset. The only decent things I can think to say about the Dolphins is that Kenyan Drake looked pretty good (maybe he will be a good running back in the future, and for his sake, hopefully he gets to play for a better franchise than the one in Miami), and at least they were better than the Jets. Though, in defense of the Jets, their season went much better than expected. For a team that had serious potential of losing upwards of 14 games, the Jets, led by the best backup quarterback in the game Josh McCown, were able to put together a not entirely horrible season. The offense was not very good, but the defense was respectable. Additionally, Robby Anderson proved to be an emerging young talent for New York. With some help in the draft and free agency, maybe the best team in East Rutherford will be able to win some more games in the near future.

NFC West

Obviously one of the biggest surprises of the season came out of this division. The Los Angeles Rams were unbelievably good under first year head coach, Sean McVay. With such an enormous turnaround, I’m not sure if more credit/blame should be given to Fisher or McVay. The major turnaround was on the offensive side of the ball, where the Rams went from worst to first, an absolutely mind-blowing improvement. At the beginning of the season, I said that the Rams hadn’t made any significant improvements on the offensive line (and they hadn’t!), so I wasn’t expecting an improvement from last season’s second-worst pass protection or Gurley’s horrible 3.2 YPC average. Boy, was I wrong. The Rams reduced their sacks allowed from 49 to 28, and Gurley rushed for an astonishing 4.7 YPC, making him a legitimate MVP candidate. The Rams are legit, and the best part of it is that there is finally a team to challenge the Seahawks in what was previously one of the worst divisions in the NFL. Speaking of the Seahawks... this year Seattle will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2011. The vaunted Legion of Boom has finally begun to age, as the once unstoppable defense is no longer. In the wake of the defensive struggles, Wilson and the offense have shown improvement. However, they have not been good enough to offset the faltering defense. In Week 17, with their slim playoff hopes still alive, Seattle needed a win against Drew Stanton and the lowly Cardinals. Even with their great homefield advantage, they lost, 26-24. 

Even though they finished third, the Cardinals may have been the most impressive team in this division. Even while shuffling through backup quarterbacks all season, Arizona managed to finish the season at a respectable 8-8. Without Palmer, the Cardinals went 5-4. Fitzgerald was great on a team of battered quarterbacks, and the defense was good enough to keep them in most games. If this is what they can do without a decent quarterback, imagine how good the Cardinals could be if they find one for next year? Or maybe they will be able to make something out of one of their currently rostered quarterbacks.

Finally, while a last place finish was inevitable after starting the season 0-9, the Niners were still able to impress this season. I’ll be honest, when Garoppolo won his first two games, defeating the lowly Bears and Texans, I wasn’t convinced of his abilities. But then when he defeated the Jaguars, Titans, and Rams to close out the season on a 5-game winning streak, I started becoming a believer. It is not often that a 6-win team finishes the season with an abundance of confidence. However, it is also not often that a team finishes the season on a 5 game winning streak and misses the playoffs. But here we are. I’m sure all the Niner players and fans can’t wait for the 2018 season to start. This team is on the rise. In 2018, we will find out whether or not this late season success was a fluke.

NFC North

In another one of the shocks of the season, the Vikings finished the regular season at 13-3, grabbing a first round bye. When it was known that Bridgewater would not return, the Minnesota season looked destined for mediocrity. Bradford’s decent quarterbacking led to an optimistic 2-0 start. However, after being forced into season-ending knee surgery, it seemed almost certain that the Minnesota offense was doomed. Enter Case Keenum. Keenum, known mostly for his horrendous quarterbacking for the Rams the season before, was suddenly tasked with leading the Vikings to the playoffs, and that is exactly what he did. A season that was expected to go horribly wrong, suddenly turned into one of the best regular seasons in team history, second only to their 15-1 season in 1998, when Chris Carter and Randy Moss combined for 29 touchdown receptions. Led by the top scoring and overall defense in the league (second in pass and rushing defense), the Vikings overcame their offensive limitations, emerging as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

The rest of the NFC North did not fare as well as the Vikings. The Lions stumbled to another mediocre record, finishing just outside of a wild card spot. Stafford was good but not great, as is the norm with him. The big problem for Detroit was the regression on defense, as what appeared to be an improving unit, ended up faltering this season. In Green Bay, the only headlines will be about Rodgers. With Rodgers injured for a large chunk of the season, the Packers posted their first losing season since 2008 (Rodgers’ first year as starting quarterback). As Rodgers continues to age, the Packers are going to have to start to address their many issues. Green Bay will only be able to lean on his unbelievably talented throwing arm for so long.

At the bottom of the NFC North, the Bears reliably finished the season as one of the worst teams in the league. Mike Glennon, a quarterback that the Bears agreed to pay $45 million dollars over three years ($18.5 million guaranteed), was given an absurdly short leash. Glennon went 1-3 over his only four starts (including an incredibly close loss to the Falcons in Week 1), before being benched for rookie Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky was not much better than Glennon, finishing the season 4-8 as the starter. As the Bears head into another offseason after a disappointing year of football, it will be interesting to see how they address their awkward issue at quarterback. Will they continue to roster the highest paid backup in the league, or will they cut ties with Glennon and just take the dead money cap hit? Either way, it seems that the BEars are a long ways away from returning to relevancy.

NFC South

I was right about one thing. The NFC South was the best division in the league this season, as they were able to put 3 teams in the postseason, just as I had predicted. The only problem is that I predicted the wrong 3 teams would make the playoffs. Switch the Buccaneers for the Saints, and I pretty much nailed this division perfectly. While the Saints’ rise to the NFC South title was not all that shocking, how they did it was. The passing game was good, but not as good as usual for New Orleans. The rise to their division title can be mostly attributed to vast improvements in the running game (see: Kamara & Ingram) and defense. Brees was still good, but he was nowhere near top form this season, and he didn’t have to be, as the rest of the team stepped up to make the Saints a legitimate championship contender. Just below the Saints in the standings, the Panthers enjoyed a very good rebound year, as Newton returned to his typical self. While he was not nearly as good as his 2015 MVP season, Newton showed a lot of improvement from last season. Carolina played a tough schedule, facing off against playoff teams in 8 of their 16 games. They were able to win half of those contests, including impressive wins against Minnesota and New England. However, two of those losses were at the hands of New Orleans, who just so happen to be Carolina’s first round playoff opponent.

The hangover from their Super Bowl disaster was short, as the Falcons were able to put together a decent season, sneaking into the playoffs as the final NFC wild card team. The offense was nowhere near the quality of the team from last year, and Ryan was never even in the MVP conversation. In fact, Atlanta’s defense was arguably better than their offense this season. So, what happened over such a short period of time? All the main players were still on the roster this season. Was Shanahan really that valuable to the Falcons? Did they make big changes to their offensive schemes when Shanahan left for San Francisco? Either way, the Falcons will have to figure out how ro right the ship in LA this weekend. At the bottom, the Buccaneers were a big disappointment this season, finishing with a measly 5 wins. Winston did not take the positive step forward that I expected, and the defense was horrible, allowing the most total yards per game of any team in the league. With such a tough division to navigate, Tampa Bay might be in for a rough couple of years if they do not see any improvement this offseason.

NFC East

It is not often that a team that finished in first place has such low expectations heading into the playoffs. Yet that is the case for the Eagles. Wentz was a strong MVP candidate until a season-ending injury forced Foles to take his place at QB. Since then, the offense has sputtered. Thankfully for Philadelphia, the defense has also been very strong, and Foles has been a formidable option at quarterback in the past, so maybe there is a chance that the Eagles can string together a couple of playoff victories.

After such a successful 2017 campaign, the Cowboys will disappointed in their inability to return to the postseason, as they finished with a mediocre record of 9-7. Prescott, Elliott, and Dez still looked good, leading the offense to some success this season. However, 2017 will mostly be remembered for Ezekiel Elliott's seemingly endless saga of whether or not his suspension would be upheld this season. Of course, he ended up serving the suspension between Weeks 10 and 15, which may have been enough to cost the Cowboys a spot in the playoffs.

The Redskins were once again adequate. Washington has a lot of talent at the skill positions, with a strong group of running backs and receivers. The big question for this team will be whether or not they hold onto Cousins during the offseason. Due to mistakes made with franchise tagging, Cousins is slated to make a lot of money next season, unless he is willing to restructure his deal with the Washington front office. In my mind, the most likely scenario is that Cousins is released, where he will get the opportunity to test the free agent market. As Cousins and his agent probably knows, there are many QB-desperate teams that would be happy to pay Cousins a lot of money to join their team. Also on the list of teams who do not know who will be their quarterback next season, the Giants finished an unexpectedly terrible season, winning only three games. For New York, it appears that the team has finally cracked, as it may be time for a total restructuring. Injuries left a roster already devoid of talent in a seemingly irreparable state. The low point of the season was when Eli Manning was benched for Geno Smith in Week 13, which ended Eli’s 210 consecutive game start streak (the second longest streak in NFL history). This meaningless benching will serve as reminder of what a horrible year 2017 was for the Giants. I expect a total tear down of the Giants this offseason. No one, not even Eli Manning, is safe.

The regular season is finally over, and the Wild Card Round of the playoffs has arrived. I’ll have my predictions for the first round of the playoffs ready before the games start on Saturday (hopefully). Stay tuned!

References:

1. Hartling, Justin. OddsShark: 2017 NFL Season Win Totals, http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-win-totals