Friday, January 19, 2018

Playoff Predictions: Conference Championships 2018

Does 2018 mark the end of the quarterback era? At this moment, the four remaining playoff quarterbacks are Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles, and Tom Brady. The only quarterback who is at least half-decent among the bunch is a 40-year-old with a bum hand. The three remaining teams that do not feature Tom Brady ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the NFL in overall and scoring defense, which probably explains why they were able to succeed, even with such a void at quarterback (with the exception of Philadelphia, since Wentz was healthy for most of the season). So, will a top defense take home the Super Bowl, or will Brady prove for the 6th time that the quarterback is by far the most important position on the field?


Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) @ New England Patriots (13-3)
Sunday, 3:05 PM ET (Current Line, Patriots -7.5)
So it sounds like this hand injury might be more serious than first thought. Brady is now officially listed as Questionable on the injury report, and he has been seen trying out a glove on his throwing hand during the last couple practices. Additionally, he hasn’t been taking snaps under center. None of this is a good sign, but I also don’t think it is useful to over-analyze. For now, I’ll assume he is going to be healthy for the game.

New England has looked great this year, and the Jaguars have been inconsistent. The Jaguar offense rarely shows up (though they just put 45 on the Steelers), and the defense is usually good (though they just gave up 42 points to the aforementioned Steelers). With that in mind, is there any reason to think that the Jaguars can win this game? The one thing that Jacksonville can look to for confidence is the fact that the teams that have historically given Brady and the New England offense trouble are those that can generate a pass rush without having to blitz. Fortunately for “Sacksonville,” that is exactly their forte, as they finished second in the league in sacks this season with 55, one behind Pittsburgh.

While a New England victory seems imminent, there are still plenty of questions heading into this game. Will Brady’s hand be healed before Sunday? Will the Patriots have to rely on their running game to move the ball on offense? Will Brady be able to take snaps from under center? Will the Jaguars be able to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket? Will Bortles be able to take advantage of New England’s vulnerable pass defense? Can Fournette make an impact on the ground? Which offense will show up for Jacksonville, the one that scored 10 points against Buffalo, or the one that scored 45 points against Pittsburgh? Only time will tell...
Prediction: The Patriots strike on their first possession with a touchdown to Gronkowski. However, that ends up being the only touchdown of the first half for both teams, as the Patriots lead 10-3 at the break. In the second half, the Jaguars return a Burkhead fumble for a touchdown to tie the game. With 3 minutes left in the game, Jacksonville is holding onto a 4 point lead. Brady leads New England down the field; however, the drive stalls at the 5-yard line. On 4th and goal, Brady is flushed out of the pocket, where he is forced into a desperation heave that is intercepted by Jalen Ramsey. The Jaguars stun the Patriots in Foxborough, 20-16.


Minnesota Vikings (13-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Sunday, 6:40 PM ET (Current Line, Vikings, -3.0)
Once again, the Eagles will be home dogs in the playoffs, as Vegas is giving little respect to Nick Foles. One fun thing about this game will be the fact that Foles and Keenum were both backups for the St. Louis Rams in 2015. Now, two seasons later, they will meet as the starting quarterbacks in the NFC Championship game. Of course, both quarterbacks have made it here partly due to injuries. Keenum has certainly earned his spot, as he started 14 games in the regular season after a mediocre start to the season by Bradford. Foles, on the other hand, only started in three regular season games, after a superb, MVP-worthy season by Wentz.

I imagine that the defenses will be the main attraction in this one. The Vikings finished 1st in both overall and scoring defense this season, while the Eagles finished 4th in both categories. Minnesota was equally good against the run and pass, finishing second in the league in both. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was much more lopsided, finishing first in the league in run defense and 17th against the pass. It will be interesting to see if the mixture of McKinnon and Murray can keep the Philadelphia run defense off-balance or if Keenum will be forced to make plays for the Minnesota offense. On the other side of the ball, Foles and Ajayi will both need to step up if they hope to crack this great Minnesota defense.

With two conservative offenses on the field, this game may come down to which team doesn’t turn the ball over. Obviously you could say that about most games, but it feels as though that may prove to be even more important in this one…
Prediction: The Vikings record their second straight first half shutout of the playoffs, as Minnesota’s defense stifles Foles and the Philadelphia offense. Murray and McKinnon do the heavy lifting in the first half, helping their team to an early 13-0 lead. On their first possession of the first half, the Eagles finally find the end zone, but they have difficulty moving the ball after that. Minnesota adds a couple more field goals, as they are able to hold on to the win at Lincoln Financial Field, 19-13.


We are a mere two weeks away from the Super Bowl. Which two teams will remain after this weekend’s action? We’ll find out soon.



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