Well, I’m not off to a
great start. I only managed to predict the result of one game correctly, as I
went 1-3 straight up and 2-2 ATS. Not very good. Though, as you will see below,
some of the more specific portions of my predictions went pretty well, so at
least there’s that.
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
defeat Kansas City Chiefs (10-6), 22-21
Well, maybe I should
have seen this one coming. With this loss, the Chiefs have now lost 6 home
playoff games in a row. For a team that is known for having one of the best home
field advantages in the league, this streak is an impressive statistical
anomaly. As for my prediction, I got off to a great start, predicting Kansas
City to have a halftime lead of 20-6 (they led 21-3). Then, I predicted that
the Titans would come back to within 3 points of the Chiefs, before ultimately
falling short (they came back to take the lead, 22-21). The Titans ended up
winning by 1, instead of my prediction of a 3 point loss. Not too far off. I
predicted a final score of 26-23, which was quite close to 21-22. So, at least
I got my pick against the spread right, but the Chiefs couldn’t close the deal
for me as far as winning the game.
This game ended up being
a perfect microcosm of the Chiefs’ season. After getting off to a big lead
(just like their 5-0 start to the season), they completely fell apart. Smith
was brilliant in the first half, completing 19 of 23 passes for 231 yards
(Smith was the leading MVP candidate after 5 weeks). However, in the second
half, Smith completed only 5 passes for only 33 yards, leading the Chiefs to
exactly zero points. Such a bad second half performance kept the door just a
crack open for the Titans, and with the help of a little luck, they
capitalized. Mariota threw a touchdown to himself, after a wacky deflection off
the hands of Darrelle Revis on a busted third down. The usually reliable Butker
missed a 48 yard field goal, clanking it off the left upright. Kelce never
returned to the game, after a hard hit left him with a concussion; his absence
was felt, as his backups dropped a few critical passes. And some poor
officiating led to some questionable calls, including a sack of Mariota that
appeared to lead to a fumble, before it was ruled that Mariota’s forward
progress had been stopped, so the play was not reviewable.
What seemed like a
potential Super Bowl season has turned into a total disaster for the Chiefs,
and especially Alex Smith. After playing well most of the season and even
finishing with the top passer rating in the league, Smith may be on the way out,
as the Chiefs look to usher in the Patrick Mahomes era in KC. For the Titans,
this win earns them one more week of football, which will undoubtedly end with
a blowout loss to the Patriots in the divisional round.
Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
defeat Los Angeles Rams (11-5), 26-13
Well, this was easily my
worst prediction of the weekend. I predicted a two score win for LA, which is
exactly the opposite of what happened. In defense of my prediction, the game
was pretty even, other than a couple of unlucky special teams errors that
helped Atlanta get out to an early 13-0 lead. After that, the game settled
down, as both defenses played better than expected. The Falcons gave up some
yards, but never enough to allow many points.
Similarly, the Rams
defense also played well, as they were able to put immense pressure on Ryan all
game, forcing him to take sacks and make quick decisions. Even though the
defense was playing well, the vaunted Los Angeles offense was unable to put up
many points, only finding the end zone once. Gurley ran for a somewhat quiet
101 yards, and he was quite limited in the passing game, reeling in 4 catches
for only 10 yards. Goff seemed uncomfortable in his first playoff game,
completing only 53% of his passes.
I don’t usually put much
credence in experience, for a number of reasons: 1) A team’s roster changes
drastically from season to season, 2) coaches and players have generally all
played in big games previously, whether it be in high school, college or the
NFL. And 3) A playoff game is not much different than a regular season game, as
you have all week to prepare for both. That being said, experience was the main
difference between these two teams, and it seemed to show. One one side, last
season’s MVP was leading last season’s NFC Champions into another playoff game.
On the other side, the long suffering Rams, led by a second year quarterback
and the youngest head coach in the league were entering their first playoff
game in 15 years. In a game between two evenly matched teams, experience was
the biggest discrepancy. Maybe experience is what ultimately tipped the game in
Atlanta’s favor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
(10-6) defeat Buffalo Bills (9-7), 10-3
Well, I guess we got
what we deserved in this one. This may have been the worst playoff game in the
history of the Super Bowl era. Two of the most inept offenses went at it, in a
game where the punters were the stars. The first 6 possessions ended in punts.
Then, Taylor threw an interception on Buffalo’s own 35 yard line. Points were
sure to be scored now! But no, the Jaguars lost 3 yards on that drive and then,
yes you guessed it, they punted. THEY PUNTED FROM THE 38 YARD LINE. I guess
that makes sense in a battle of field position... but still. You don’t trust
Lambo from 55 yards? You don’t want to take a chance on a 4th down conversion?
In the end, punting only changes the field by about 20 yards anyways, so it
seemed like an odd choice at the time. However, maybe it was the right one,
considering how difficult it was for Buffalo to move the ball at all.
In total, the game saw
17 punts, 9 for Jacksonville and 8 for Buffalo. Taylor was bad, but at least he
gave Buffalo hope. Unfortunately, not even that hope held out for the entire
game. On the final drive of the game for Buffalo, in the most crucial moment of
the game, Taylor was injured with what appeared to be a concussion. Enter
Nathan Peterman, the interception machine. Peterman threw one pass to the dirt,
one pass to the Bills, and one pass to the Jaguars. That’s a very even distribution.
Unfortunately, that last pass to the Jaguars is the one that ended the game.
As for my prediction, I
was not far off. I predicted a final score of 10-9 in favor of Buffalo. Of
course, it was the Jaguars who were able to score an impressive 10 points in
this one, as they won 10-3. I guess 10 was the magic number in this one.
As the old Jacksonville saying goes, the first team to 10 points always
wins. I think they call that Bortles’ Law.
New Orleans Saints
(11-5) defeat Carolina Panthers (11-5), 31-26
In arguably the best
game of the weekend (and my best prediction of the weekend), the Saints
defeated the Panthers by 5 points in a thrilling contest. The final score of
31-26 was very close to my prediction of 31-24. Unfortunately, that small difference
was enough for me to miss my pick against the spread, as the Saints were
favored by 6.5.
Drew Brees returned to
his old familiar ways, absolutely torching the Carolina defense for 376 yards
and two touchdowns. After a season where Brees appeared to regress into an
ancillary role in the New Orleans offense, the veteran quarterback proved that
he still has what it takes to lead a team to a playoff victory. Newton did his
best to match him, having an arguably statistically superior day, passing for
349 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
The game seemed all but
over when Kamara scored from 1 yard out, to give the Saints a 31-19 lead with 5
minutes to play. However, a great catch and run by McCaffrey gave life to
Carolina, as they were able to cut the lead to 31-26 with 4 minutes to play. A
big stop by the Carolina defense gave Newton one more shot to win the game with
less than two minutes to play. In what would have been an incredible comeback,
Newton led the Panthers down field, showing signs of his once MVP self.
However, a bad throwaway by Cam led to an ill-timed intentional grounding penalty,
which all but sealed the game. Even after that devastating penalty, Cam still
made a near perfect throw to win the game on third and long, but he just missed
Funchess in the end zone. In the end, the Saints escaped with a win that easily
could have gone the other way.
That’s it for the first
round of the playoffs. The Divisional Round is just around the corner.
Predictions will be coming in later this week. Stay tuned!
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