Tuesday, January 23, 2018

2018 Conference Championship Recap

What a horrible weekend of football. Both games were awful. I went 0-2 straight up and 1-1 ATS. That brings me to a total of 3-7 straight up and 5-4-1 ATS. That’s horrible! Check out my recaps below.


New England Patriots (13-3) defeat Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6), 24-20
No matter the lead, it simply never seemed like the Jaguars were going to actually win this one. Jacksonville looked great in the first half. After allowing a first possession field goal, they were able to lock down Brady and the running game, limiting the movement of the New England offense. Meanwhile, Bortles was playing surprisingly great, and the run game was effective, as expected. The great play got the Jaguars out to an early 14-3 lead. For a moment, the Patriots looked a bit stunned. However, after gathering themselves, they were able to score a crucial touchdown just before the end of the half. In the second half, there was more of the same, as Jacksonville was able to extend their lead to 10 points. However, New England continued to stay in the game, thanks mostly to a stifling defense that allowed for many second half possessions for the New England offense. Brady found Amendola twice in the 4th quarter for touchdowns, the second of which came with less than 3 minutes remaining. It ended up being the winning score, as the Jacksonville offense was unable to respond.

I’ll just say it. There were some questionable calls and non-calls in this one. As many have already noted, the Patriots were only penalized once for 10 yards throughout the entire, which is quite the anomaly. In comparison, Jacksonville was flagged 6 times for 98 penalty yards. Of course, playoff games typically see fewer penalties called, and the home team is often the beneficiary of some ref bias. So, maybe this was not much of an anomaly. But still, the most important play of the first Patriot touchdown drive was a very soft pass interference call against Bouye, bailing Brady out of a bad throw. Additionally, a very quick whistle on Myles Jack’s fumble recovery in the fourth quarter prevented a potential fumble return touchdown. Granted, that was more of a bad luck call, but the quick whistle was a huge mistake by the refs. If Jack scores there, the Jaguars would have had a commanding 17 point 4th quarter lead, which would have almost certainly led to a victory. Finally, two apparent pass interferences on Marcedes Lewis were not called on critical 4th quarter third down plays. It’s easy for refs to not want to disrupt the game during critical plays of a playoff game, but a few of these calls seemed uncharacteristically bad.

That being said, the Jaguars should never have allowed the Patriots to be in a position where bad officiating could cost them the game. Excluding their final possession (when they no longer had the lead) Jacksonville’s final 4 possessions all started with the same ineffective running back draw to Fournette, followed by a throw in a tough 2nd and long situation (these three passes resulted in 1 completion). Jacksonville’s final three drives before their final possession each lasted 1:34, 2:23, 0:55. If the Jaguars had been able to run the ball or complete a fewer more passes with more creative and effective play call, they probably would have been able to get a couple more first downs. This would have allowed them to run down more of the clock, or maybe even score a few more points. Instead, the Jaguars ran predictable first down draws, which led to tough passing downs for Bortles. This forced incompletions, causing the clock to stop. All of this was critical to New England’s success, as the Patriots still had some difficulty moving the ball in the 4th quarter. Fortunately for the New England, the feeble Jaguar offense allowed them to have many opportunities to score. New England took advantage, and for that reason, they are once again heading back to the Super Bowl.


Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) defeat Minnesota Vikings (13-3), 38-7
This game was obviously horrible for the neutral observer. Minnesota got off to an early lead, scoring the first touchdown of the game on their very first possession. Vikings fans must have felt very confident after that, as their mediocre offense looked perfect on their first possession. Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there, as the Eagles dominated the Vikings in all facets of the game after that. Still, the question remains, how the hell did that happen?

While my prediction of a Minnesota victory was quite poor, I do deserve credit for at least one part of my prediction, specifically when I said:

“With two conservative offenses on the field, this game may come down to which team doesn’t turn the ball over. Obviously you could say that about most games, but it feels as though that may prove to be even more important in this one…”

The Eagles clearly won the turnover battle, 3 to 0, as early Viking turnovers pretty much decided this game. After a perfect first possession, the absolute worst followed, as Keenum threw an unlucky interception, when his arm was hit in the middle of a throw, causing the ball to flutter. Patrick Robinson was then able to make a great play, returning the interception 50 yards for a touchdown. After an impressive Eagle touchdown drive, Philadelphia held a one score lead. The Vikings responded with another great drive, as Keenum was able to lead Minnesota into the redzone. However, another critical turnover swung the momentum in Philadelphia’s favor, when Keenum was strip sacked at the Philadelphia 16 yard line. The Eagles turned that turnover into another 7 points, giving them a 21-7 lead.

From that point, Philadelphia was in complete control. With such a mediocre offense, the Vikings were simply not built to come from so far behind. A 17 point deficit seemed insurmountable, especially since the Eagles would receive the second half kickoff. Minnesota was clearly dejected, and it showed when Philadelphia converted their first possession of the second half into a touchdown, all but sealing the game.

It’s always interesting how quickly a game can change. In a game of great defenses, every score is precious. So giving up a defensive touchdown, and failing to score a point after a successful drive into the redzone can really crush the hope and spirit of a team. That is seemingly what happened to Minnesota. It makes you wonder… had the Vikings not given up those two early turnovers, would this game have been much closer? I think so. However, none of that matter now. Philadelphia were the clear winners on Sunday, earning their spot in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots, a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX.




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